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Nice win from Claimantakinforgan. I guess you can say this about any winner but what an incredible SP.
Less of an aggressive one-horse strategy today, just a few semi-speculative small stakes plays.
I’ll be betting Icing On The Cake, Sam Spinner, Chti Balko, KK Lexion and Southfield Royale.
WD with those 2 winners LS, didn’t see the Chti Balko race but must have been handy enough given the winning margin.
Cheers Grassy. Yeah Chti Balko got an easy enough lead once he’d seen off The Gipper early on. I still think Cap Du Nord is well handicapped to win races but just couldn’t see him going through the ground yesterday.
Hopefully that’ll mean my last bet before Christmas is a winning one but I’m in looking after Cagnes-Sur-Mer today so there’s still time for a French fire-up!
I maanged to abstain from Cagnes-Sur-Mer bets today. I’m obviously off tomorrow and won’t be working on Boxing Day, so study time for all those cards was quite precious. Luckily (?) I was in the office today and had a chance to look at pretty much everything at least at glance. Unfortunately this is just about the worst time to be having a Boxing Day bet with all firms up with very defensive overrounds, especially on the lower grade stuff.
With that in mind I’ve kept things fairly small with most of my bets. Many are somewhat speculative so I wouldn’t be surprised at drawing a blank, although of course I’m hopeful. Also a couple of ante-post bets and a couple of bigger plays.
1.20 Kempton – Definitely feels like a betting race with the psycho Hell’s Kitchen obviously an opposable fav. He has plenty of talent but will he be able to harness it here? The Hendo chasing newbies are the interesting ones on hurdles form and I think the price disparity between Reigning Supreme and Whenyerreadyfreddie is too big. If anything, ‘Freddie’ is more a scopey chasing type and I think the High Bridge and Brio Conti form from last year makes him very well-treated. Hendo won this race a few years ago with Oedipe IIRC.
King George – I’m already on the Might Bite KG/Gold Cup double and I’m confident of him landing the first leg. Also backed Whisper each-way (KG only, I mean) – I think that their linked line of form is superior to everything else on offer.
12.10 Huntingdon – Looks like a betting race. Boreham Bill’s last run looks like strong form but he has been a bit of a weak finisher and needs to prove that he can see a race out. Black Mischief looks too short and Classic Ben is likely to struggle under the penalty. I’m willing to take a chance of Ey Up Rocky – his bumper win looks like excellent form (2nd and 3rd doing well up north) and, if he takes to hurdling and is trying, then he must be a big runner here.
3.00 Huntingdon – I told you these were speculative. I’ll get some stick for this but I think old That’s The Deal is a runner. Forget his last two starts – he didn’t have his ground. Plenty of his rivals here have wellbeing, fitness or attitude concerns. Back on his best surface on a track he loves, I think That’s The Deal’s big heart and commitment will count for a lot. Overpriced due to unsexy connections.
12.00 Wetherby – Suddenly Petticoat Tails’ bumper form doesn’t look so hot. Given that she has shown signs of going the wrong way, I think you’ve got to look for an alternative. Cockley Beck looks toxic short and Schiaparannie has more to do under a penalty, so I think Autumn Surprise must be the one. She shaped well on seasonal return, cruising up to Schiaparannie before lack of fitness told. Tim Easterby had a winner the other day and I think she’ll turn the tables here.
1.05 Wetherby – This is another speculative one. A few moody ones in play – Red Ochre was smashed up for a bumper (didn’t win) and has had a quiet time so far over hurdles, but his stable must think he has ability. Still, I’m willing to chance Art Of Supremacy. He showed lots of ability in bumpers and repeatedly shaped nicely under quiet rides in Ireland. Never really fulfilled potential and didn’t take to chasing but now washes up with an in-form yard (Micky Hammond) and starts out on a good mark. Worth a try at 20s.
1.40 Wetherby – If you can get 5/2 Special Catch and 6/1 Caraline, I think that’s the way to dutch it. They’re up against three old goats.
2.45 Wetherby – Little Bruce is a game little scrapper and returns to the scene of his finest hours here. There aren’t many well-handicapped dangers and I’d take him to resume the progression. 11/2 still fair.
3.20 Wetherby – Chancing a Micky Hammond horse again but this is a really really weak race. Royal Beekeeper (recently won a claiming hurdle) and Gran Maestro (Winks project) are high up in the betting, which says it all. I think 14/1 is a little too dismissive about Mac Cennetig, especially with the yard going quite well now. His last piece of Irish form is superior to anything this bunch have achieved recently and I’m willing to forgive his UK debut given so much juice in the price.
12:35 Market Rasen – Charlie Poste starts this card with a couple of good rides. I thought Ballinslea Bridge ran a remarkable race to finish so close up behind a 120ish horse despite jumping so badly right all the way at Fakenham last time. Now going right-handed, he could run the sting out of the fav. Ashkoul has his share of quirks and isn’t one I’d like to be lumping onto at a short price. O
1.10 Market Rasen – Having a decent bet here. I think Master Burbidge won a weak race last time and is opposable up in the weights, especially given that he isn’t always fluent. Keel Haul is on the downgrade, Boagrius is interesting but has something to prove and Royal Plaza is a serial loser. Argentix jumped boldly and shaped really well at Carlisle last time – should strip fitter and should be well suited by Market Rasen. Well worth a look.
3.25 Market Rasen – Another race to make sure you have a bet in with such iffy market leaders. Foccacia did win last time but is not the bravest and has failed to see out this trip in the past, while second-in Alexander The Grey is also hard to win with. Although the 11/2 exists in the fantasyland for most, I think 5s is still fair about Generous Day. He looks sure to relish this step up in trip and I think his last two runs represent really solid form for the grade.
3.10 Fontwell – One of my favourite low-grade horses runs here. It’s the mighty What Larks. Every now and again I refresh his Racing Post page and hope Fergal O’Brien or Dan Skelton has picked him up. How unlucky can you get as a (slightly error-prone) staying chaser with decent ability – you’re trained by Jeremy Naylor (ex Hugo Froud) and either ridden by Conor Ring or Dave Crosse. Still, he’s capable of winning races with a clear round, though that is always a big ‘if’ with him. Worth chancing at a big price in a race where old Goring One is only 5/1!
12:55 Wincanton – I think If You Say Run is much better than these and should enjoy the long straight at Wincanton.
1.30 Wincanton – I can’t find anyone who agrees with me but I’ll be betting Protek De Flos. I think Padge is a really interesting horse but his keen-going ways are likely to find him out on first run back. This is tougher for Bastien, Wait For Me is up in the weights and there are rumours of a Hobbs stable virus and plenty of the others have something to prove. Protek De Flos just isn’t a chaser but his hurdles form suggests he remains well-handicapped. The Pertemps trail could be the making of him.
3.15 Wincanton – Jessbers Dream brings a big hurdles rating but she has been regressive since leaving Harry Fry and, given that she can be clumsy over hurdles, I’m looking to oppose on chasing debut. Theatre Territory is the obvious one with her excellent Cheltenham run already franked by Miss Parfois. Experience will count for plenty and hopefully she’s right there on the class front too.
1.40 Limerick – Had a bet but been tipped it by a friend and don’t want to queer his action at all.
Also a small ‘for funzies’ multi with Might Bite, Theatre Territory, If You Say Run and Argentix.
GL and happy xmas all!
The complicated part is trying to work out if I won or lost on Boxing Day. 5/4, 6/4, 6/1, 6/1 and 10/1 winners along with 13 losers. Two of the losers were bigger bets and only one of the winners (5/4) was towards the upper end of my staking. I also had a losing multi.
I *think* I’m something like 4pts ahead at the end of all that. Ballin’! :D
Just broke away from the family shenanigans so I’m about to get started on tomorrow’s racing.
The complicated part is trying to work out if I won or lost on Boxing Day. 5/4, 6/4, 6/1, 6/1 and 10/1 winners along with 13 losers. Two of the losers were bigger bets and only one of the winners (5/4) was towards the upper end of my staking. I also had a losing multi.
I *think* I’m something like 4pts ahead at the end of all that. Ballin’! 😀
Just broke away from the family shenanigans so I’m about to get started on tomorrow’s racing.
Do you not use a bet tracker LS3?
I’ve used this for the last 8 months or so, couldn’t live without it now https://bettin.gs/
the free version is fine for testing it out but for proper E/W integration the paid version ($12 USD a month I think)is well worth it, tracks ROI, daily and monthly returns, draws fancy graphs and all sorts. My monthly pofit/loss graph often resembles the Himalayas
All manual for me BB – usually tidy up my spreadsheet once a week and feel it out from account balances day to day.
Today’s bets:
2.00 Limerick – Cowboy Des Long 66/1 ew
2.35 Limerick – Youcantcallherthat/Uncle Danny dutch
12.30 Wetherby – Going Gold 5/1 e/w
3.40 Kempton – Mister Malarky 7/1Good luck Soldier with Cowboy, had a wee go at the 66’s myself. Bet him before and he was poor, but not “66’s poor”
Just managed to cling on for 4th. Nice bit of place money there VTC. Pays for the day. :)
Dusting off a few old accounts for some bets at Taun’on on Saturday…
2.00 – Attest 5/2 (medium stakes)
2.35 – Gores Island 9/2 (lumpy)
3.10 – All Currencies 10/1 (small)2.00 –
A trappy little race that may cut up even further with a couple of these not proven on the ground. Challico hasn’t looked straightforward so far over hurdles and ideally needs further than 2m, so looks a favourite to oppose. Moabit became exposed over hurdles prior to his successful stint on the flat, so he always feels short enough at present. Bandsman is an interesting horse (beat London Prize last year) but he is totally unproven on a soft surface and Harry Skelton forsakes his brother’s string at Taunton to ride Dame Rose at Newbury. I think Attest is the solid option – he had a good spell during the summer and brings red hot Ascot and Cheltenham handicap form (touch unlucky last time). Rio Bravo should appreciate dipping down to 2m and may get an easy lead, so he is worth a small saver at 12s.
2.35 –
Any race where Yourholidayisover is eating up more than 20% of the win market makes me want to dust off the old betting shoes. Still, I’m not a great believer in default fav Burrenbridge Hotel either. He is exposed as modest and picked up a dreadful race last time. Glimpse Of Gold is out of form, Helium is not what he used to be and Jackthejourneyman has no form to his name. Surely this is an excellent chance for old Gores Island:
– tongue-tie back on
– massive drop in class
– young rider knows him well
– was going to a win a C3 about 6 months ago but stacked it at the lastSurely he is better than these pitsy marshmallows. Perhaps Auenwirbel is saver material – hasn’t shown much in this country but 4th two starts ago is almost as good as Burrenbridge Hotel’s recent win. There shouldn’t be so much of a disparity.
3.15 –
I hear Sunshade is well-regarded but on the bare facts of her racecourse form she probably has the fourth best CV of the five mares here. She looks toxic at 5/4. Maria’s Benefit is very solid although she may face a dispute for the lead and soft ground (though she does handle it) may not be her ideal surface. If You Say Run wants a galloping track and looks like a fairly opportunistic entry with black type available. I think the value pick must be All Currencies, whose recent run looks like very strong form (franked by several since). She didn’t seem to be flattered by that result and is probably just an improving mare. Too big at 10s.
Good meetings for me in the next couple of days – Punchestown on Sunday and Cheltenham on Monday (my Prestbury Park debut!) are my rewards for staying sober and working while everyone else gets tanked up.
12.35 – 3m 1f Novices’ Chase
A trappy affair with market vibes about the returning Mullins pair Augustin and Some Neck likely to be telling. Monbeg Notorious has two runs of chasing experience under his belt and should be hard to beat. 365’s 13/8 looks far too big.
1.05 – 2m Handicap ChaseThree or four horses here who I’m not really familiar with so some replay watching and form study required. Show And Go were first and second last year with S&G outstaying MB despite a mistake at the last. Both return on similar marks. Thirsty Work was a bit better than this grade over hurdles and still had plenty to offer when falling two out in a similar event on Boxing Day. Pakman has an interesting profile with most of his best efforts coming at Punchestown. He never stood a prayer in any of his chase assignments so far and may be interesting at a price. Surrogate Lad is probably a strong favourite on the back of his recent win – with such a typical Tony Martin profile it’s impossible to know quite where the ceiling of his ability is.
I suppose it’s a no bet race really. There’s a fair chance Surrogate Lad is just a blot. Before I saw any prices, I was thinking Pakman might be a bet at 25s or 33s but 8/1 overnight is far too short. If you made me bet, I’d probably dutch Mount Brandon/Show And Go.
1.40 – 2m 4f Conditions Hurdle
Tricky tricky. Surely Killultagh Vic must be a lay off the absence (they said he was retired at one point, right?) especially with a few worries about the Mullins horses first run back, ESPECIALLY since this one is meant to be going chasing. Ex Patriot is the fit horse with the form but is evidently no star and looks plenty short enough to me. With any sort of steer towards his fitness (or lack of), Diamond King could be interesting. Gordon Elliott was negative in his pre-season stable tour.
Without a steer, you’d be looking for other fit horses proven on the ground. That only really leaves Tigris River (unexposed at 2m 4f) and Massini’s Trap, who has a little bit to find. It’s never easy trying to second-guess JP McManus and his runners in Ireland, especially in a conditions race but I’m willing to chance Tigris River here. His last run was respectable (poorly placed, not knocked around) and conditions are in his favour.
2.10 – 2m Maiden Hurdle
Impossible to bet here, let the market sort it out. The French judges I know regard Msassa as a big weak type with the frame of a chaser but who knows how he’ll emerge on debut for Mullins. Veneer Of Charm (Davy Russell’s choice from three), Warnaq and Les Arceaux have potential to be nice recruits too. Answers on a postcard.
2.40 – 2m 4f Handicap Hurdle
Looked at this race earlier but was really struggling to concentrate at the time so will start afresh now. Looking at the interesting ones from the top, Fine Rightly was a good second in a strong race last time. He is just a horse I have never liked – I have some niggling doubts about his attitude and wonder if he might recoil after a few tough races in a short space of time. I haven’t looked at any prices yet but I assume Synopsis will be fav. She did really well to pick up a horse who was granted a soft lead last time but this will presumably be a much stiffer test – I’ll probably take a chance on opposing her with so little stamina in the pedigree. Miles To Memphis is really interesting. I’ve always considered this horse a stayer so I’m glad to see him get his chance at 2m 4f on soft ground, especially after such a productive time on the flat over the summer. Steel Wave won’t be missed in the market either on second start for Willie Mullins (and second run after a long absence) following a strong comeback 2nd. The ‘bounce’ may be a minor worry.
Despite a couple of potential blots, I’m looking to side with the proven class and untapped stamina of Miles To Memphis, for whom the two ‘sexy’ ones may have made the market.
3.15 – 2m Handicap Hurdle
Interesting market here. I expected this to be a ‘no bet’ sort of race but it feels like the most likely plot job has been missed. Belle Helene was a good bumper horse and just hasn’t had a clear run at things over hurdles – three runs all well spaced out, must have had problems. She’ll surely come on for her recent reappearance and 8/1 has to be worth chancing. She’s Made It (related to Dawn Run) might be worth a small saver as the other potential blot. The horses with handicap form are hardly intimidating.
3.45 – 2m 2f Mares’ Bumper
Some interesting newcomers in the shape of Girley Talk, Ifyoucatchmenow and Lady Loretta. Holycross Lito sets a fair standard and will be the marker to judge this form post-race.
Same boat as you Soldier, lateshift tomorrow, though more than happy to miss Hogmanay/New Year, as I bloody hate it.
Very interesting card that at Punchestown, though I’ll continue as I did today, and sit it out. I’m most interested in Diamond King, and wouldn’t suprise me at all if this is the first step on the road to The Plate. His is the first result I’ll look for.
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