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Brighton 03/09/17
Looking at the card over a glass of wine the night before, I feel like I won’t have many bets. Often when I have this feeling, I end up having something in nearly every race the next day.
2.00 – 5 1/2f 2yo Maiden Auction
Surprised Mother Of Dragons isn’t clear fav but obviously has a few questions to answer after blowing out last time. Usual Stuart Williams M.O. (especially in these colours) doesn’t involve trying very hard in maidens so I’m not in love with Episcea either. Interesting to see what the market makes of the Channon/SDS newcomer but hard to see myself having a bet here.
2.30 – 6f C4 Handicap
A decent and interesting sprint-up with stacks of pace despite the small field. Luca Cumani does well at Brighton (especially in handicaps) and his Buxted Dream seems to have turned the corner. No juice in his price at all though. As you’ll see from Oddschecker with Iseemist (sea of blue apart from the dear old firm unchanged 7/1), I could see a case for Iseemist. Again can’t see myself betting at under 10/1 since this one likes to dominate.
3.00 – 7f 2yo Novice Stakes
This will be a tough task for Myboyhenry under the penalty. Not totally sold on the scoop-actioned Tiepolo on rocky Brighton ground either. Queen’s Gallery might be a play tomorrow with the Hannon 2yos improving for a run – this one seemed to get the message near the line on debut. No bet yet – feels like something I’ll play at about 8.50 tomorrow!
3.30 – 1m 2f C4 Fillies’ Handicap
A really good race featuring a stack of interesting fillies. White Chocolate and Kitty Boo were both 7/2 on my tissue so I’ll play either if they drift too far away from that mid-afternoon. Big speed figs/Cumani track stat/trip angle behind Kitty Boo and solid form + claimer case for White Chocolate.
I made Jive Talking almost double figures, 6/1 Great Court and was looking to be particularly against Marie Josephe (should struggle to confirm form with Impressive Day despite weights turnaround). I was more like 5/1 about Impressive Day and will respect Gingertipster’s mantra by having a scaled bet at 7s tonight.
Mia Tessoro is an interesting one – ended last season with unfinished business (unlucky/poorly placed a couple of times) and weak in market/not knocked around on comeback at Chelmsford last month. It feels like this will be a reasonably competitive and well-run race so I’ll have a token go at 16/1 now and ratchet up for a bit more if bigger in the morning. May top up agains if strong in the market.
So yes, a really good race. I might end up backing 3/4 horses if the market ebbs and flows tomorrow.
4.00 – 1m 4f C5 Handicap
I’ve had some good days with Melabi but I’m not sure a small field on the ground at Chester is really what he wants. Pete So High feels like a favourite to take on given his lack of balance going downhill last time. I prefer Milky Way but his profile is hardly one that makes you want to steam in. Market vibes key – no bet.
4.30 – 5 1/2f C6 Handicap
Loathed to back a Martin Dwyer/Willie Muir horse but Iron Lady looks interesting here. One of the only genuine pace angles, a tough horse to pass and form of last two starts quite strong for this level. Concrete ground and drop in trip good moves. Taken 7/1 and will top up if bigger in the morning.
5.00 – 1m C5 Handicap
Any money for Titan Goddess would make her interesting. Mike Murphy is a shrewd operator and may well have been cheating with this one lately. Has a class edge on old form and goes well at the course. Might play tomorrow if Oddschecker says it’s a goer. 16/1 overnight certainly seems rather fearless from the industry at large.
Been busy on that 3.30 race. Kitty Boo, Impressive Day and Mia Tesori (e/w) on the team.
Five bets, just the one 9/1 winner.
A few frustrating ones there but a few more coins to put on the ol’ Scrooge McDuck pile.
Ripon tomorrow…
2.10 – 5f 2yo Maiden
Can’t imagine many steaming in to back the Burrows dodgepot at that price. Feels like an e/w snidey’s dream.
2.40 – 5f C5 2yo Nursery
Trappy stuff but I thought Bahuta Acha was most interesting first time after gelding. Will need to ping the lids from that draw but a reproduction of his third run would be good enough to win this off 66. Might play that in the morning.
3.10 – 1m 4f C4 Handicap
Decent little race. No juice in Zack Mayo’s price now. Will probably play Redicean and King’s Coinage e/w for small stakes in the morning.
3.40 – 5f C3 Handicap
Really spicy little sprint-up with plenty of in-form horses but much too tough for me.
4.10 – 6f C4 Fillies’ Handicap
I have been really disappointed with Mistime’s runs since her comeback, thought she could be very well-handicapped on her juvenile form. I really hope she shows a bit more spark. Penny Pot Lane the main pickout at the overnight prices but no rush, could well be bigger in the morning or during the day.
4.40 – 1m 2f Maiden
Gakku should be too good, bit of a non-event.
Bit of a damp squib yesterday. Backed the two each-way in that good race and only got one place at 13/2.
Left everything alone today – couldn’t see any bets in the two Kempton races I looked at and had a stack of jobs to do around the house. Kempton again for me tomorrow so will have a cursory look now (sans speed figures)…
5.20 – 7f C6 3yo Handicap
My kind of race, a proper marshamallow pit. Morello well found by the market but hardly a NAP at the price.
Whaleweigh Station could be interesting after a break, especially if money is flying around for a canny yard. The only real Obvious claims for Black Truffle too but Nicola Currie wouldn’t be my first choice jockey to weave a way through from the car park draw. See how this one plays out.
5.55 – 7f C6 3yo Handicap
Surprisingly well done by all compilers concerned here. Everything looks about right overnight. Arcanada a bit of a cliff horse for me but can’t be wading in around 7/2 in such a big field since one of every three runs is a stinker. Race best left alone.
6.25 – 7f C6 2yo Nursery
Tentative stuff but I thought Shoyd was the moral winner (1st and 3rd reoppose) two starts ago. Bad draw again and needs forgiving the latest run though, probably can’t justify a bet. Interesting to see what Mouchel has done on the clock.
6.55 – 6f 2yo Novice Auction
Prefer Joegogo here and will have a solid wager if the speed figures back me up. First three starts make him just about the form pick, sure to be a trier and has the best jockey.
7.25 – 1m Maiden
Would take a good one to beat Tamih but interesting to see if any of those well-bred newbies comes in for money.
7.55 – 1m C5 Fillies’ Handicap
Narjes went into my notebook last time but no juice at all at 13/8 – much more of an open race than that implies.
8.25 – 1m 4f C4 Handicap
Solo Mission sticks right out in that field, can’t see any creative angles.
8.55 – 2m C6 Handicap
A proper race to end the card. What a beauty. Macksville is a very interesting horse in general (liking the ex-Jeremy Gask switchers in general) but you’d need to write off the previous run.
Race could be undermined by the classic Sir Mark Prescott cheater (up to 2m/first time headgear, 5 entries in the next week etc). Yawn.
Joegogo likely to be my only bet on the card if the speed figs back me up. Might add Whaleweigh Station if there’s money around on Oddschecker.
Had a good bet on Joegogo and decided to chip away at Marju’s Quest on the machine and each-way in the 8.25.
David Dennis is toxic and this one seems to be coming to life for his new yard – switch back to the flat sure to suit his tearaway style.
Snaffled some 8/1 Tomorrow Mystery (each-way) 4.50 Salisbury tomorrow.
Ginormous rick from PP/BF.
No joy there but probably didn’t deserve to win. I did have one moment of outrageous good luck today – I just wish I could tell you all about it!!
Bumped up from Sedgefield to Salisbury tomorrow…
1.50 – C4 2yo Novice Stakes
Too tough for me but I’ll have a close eye on Red Miracle – Rod Millman so good with getting these staying types handicapped to make a mark at three.
2.20 – C5 2yo Nursery
Head spinning. No idea.
2.50+3.20 – 7f 2yo Fillies’ Maiden
Again, nothing creative to offer.
3.50 – 6f 2yo Fillies’ G3
Special Purpose far too short, surprised it’s favourite overnight. Eirene bang solid but unlikely to hit a great price. I really like Oriental Song, who clocked some dizzy sectionals considering she was only in an uncompetitive maiden last time. Will be taking 6/1.
4.20 – 6f C2 Fillies’ Handicap
Already backed Kassia and will have my usual loyalty bet on Stellarta just before the off. She almost always runs a race, is somehow dropping in the weights and has her best chance in a while here. Never comes in for money though – bound to get some huge odds on Betfair in the last 10 minutes before post time.
4.50 – 1m 4f C4 Handicap
I think Comrade Conrad is very solid but I stole the rickety price on Tomorrow Mystery.
5.20 – 1m C5 Hands and Heels Handicap
Rossa Ryan is the best jockey in the field but you’d be brave to get involved in a race like this.
Not a great day for my own plays yesterday, just breakeven with the e/w on Tomorrow Mystery.
Backed Russian Realm, Rasheeq, Elysian Flyer and Hawridge Flyer at Haydock. Also a tiny e/w on Mlily at Kilbeggan.
No joy there but probably didn’t deserve to win. I did have one moment of outrageous good luck today – I just wish I could tell you all about it!!
Bumped up from Sedgefield to Salisbury tomorrow…
Well done Lost Soldier, whatever the good fortune was.
Enjoyed reading this thread, lot of work seems to be going into it as well.
Thanks Buckers.
Feeling really ill at the moment so lacking the energy for this, but had a big bet on Workbench at Fontwell today. Course specialist, placed in the race last year off higher mark, great record August-October.
Well done Soldier, and I can’t believe his price today.
Kicking myself here, both Workbench and The Game Changer are horses I’ve followed, and both Ante-Post bets of mine in the past for The Grand Annual. A nice wee double there that got away for me.
Thanks VTC. Heart attack stuff up the run-in but he really stuck his neck out in the end. All roads to that Fontwell chase he has won for the last three years I reckon.
I’ve got a soft spot for The Game Changer too. Amazing he is still operating at at good level after all the different trips and tough races he has tried. Deserved a nice little win.
I’m backing these lovely farm animals from my sickbed today:
2.45 Newton Abbot – Small stakes go on Moorlands Jack. Fav Third Act has plenty of his own ideas about the game and is always one to oppose. Good old MJ is back down to the same mark as his C&D win from April and has shaped better than the result a few times since. The lack of headgear (unheard of for him!) might be a worry but he has previously responded to equipment switch-ups and perhaps the removal of everything will have the same impact.
4.15 Newton Abbot – Decent bet on Bonobo here. This seller is the classic ‘marshamallow pit’ – the sort of dirty basement race I love getting involved in. I think Quadriller is one to oppose. The sudden drop to a seller feels awfully smelly, especially since his trainer was talking about going chasing after his comeback win. Quadriller has historically had terrible trouble backing-up quickly after wins and looks a prime candidate for the ‘bounce’ factor. Even if that didn’t apply, Bonobo wouldn’t be far away. It was only a year ago that he won a good C4 handicap hurdle over C&D, beating a well-treated Skelton horse. You can forgive all subsequent runs as the next hurdles run came too soon and he has jumped like a hippo in all runs over fences. Back to hurdles and effectively getting a stone from the crocked fav, he looks well worth a go at around 9/4.
3.35 Perth – Guitar Pete. Decent sized bet here. I’m a big fan of the ex-Sandra Hughes angle, especially since the horse has massive backclass over hurdles and on the flat. Theo is way up in the weights, Master Dee smells like a comeback non-jigger, Hammersly Lake is high enough in the weights and I don’t like the rag. 7/2 a very good price, wouldn’t be surprised to see this go off near fav.
4.35 Perth – Bailey’s Concerto. Small-to-middling bet at 11/4. Not convinced about the form of Mountain King’s latest win and the others are fairly exposed. Bailey’s Concerto has a couple of tidy pieces of form at this trip – namely the 2nd to Lord Ballim (admittedly 2m 4f but similar test at Carlisle) and the recent gubbage at the hands of Perth cult hero Creevytennant.
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