Forum Replies Created
- Posts
Yanworth doesn’t have the cruising speed of yorkhill
Possibly. I personally would have had Yanworth in the WH. Though based on last seasons neptune I wouldn’t totally agree.
I don’t think the Neptune is that much wore than what this JLT could be. He won at his leisure with bundles in hand and come Tuesday evening it could well be that the Champion Hurdler was second to him. Top Notch couldn’t land a blow in a Champion Hurdle and I doubt the rest of these could either. If Yorkhill was in it he’d be favourite for sure. However, jumping can be a great leveler (no pun intended) and that’s the concern with him.
Do you really think he won the Neptune at his own leisure?! I’d say he was given a brilliant ride by Ruby, Yanworth was given a stinker by Barry and the best horse finished second.
Interesting thoughts. Starting to think Might bite is the worst favourite of the lot, as don’t see him relishing the hill at all and won’t be able to win the race before that stage I think. Even if he had stood up at Kempton he would have basically won a race that has a poor correlation to the RSA. Bit of a controversial thing to say about a 5-2 shot, but just can’t see him winning.
Problem is what do you take him on with. Not convinced about Alpha Des Obeaux at all, don’t think he’s big enough for fences and he bled last time. In general the staying division looks quite weak. Can see an upset in this race.
You’re probably right Steve about Altoir being a steering job, we will see. I think that’s one of the arguments for not creating these races like the JLT, is it’s detracted massively from the Arkle. Put Yorkhill in the race and it has a completely different complexion to it
If it rains, Acapella Bourgeois?
Yeah maybe. People have this pegged as a soft ground slogger but it’s possible that it just took a leap forward last time. I don’t think it will have a problem with good ground at all. Well it had better not because the sun is pouring down and think it will be good ground by weds
I’m inclined to agree but I think I read somewhere that it would only run if the ground was on the softer side.
Interesting thoughts. Starting to think Might bite is the worst favourite of the lot, as don’t see him relishing the hill at all and won’t be able to win the race before that stage I think. Even if he had stood up at Kempton he would have basically won a race that has a poor correlation to the RSA. Bit of a controversial thing to say about a 5-2 shot, but just can’t see him winning.
Problem is what do you take him on with. Not convinced about Alpha Des Obeaux at all, don’t think he’s big enough for fences and he bled last time. In general the staying division looks quite weak. Can see an upset in this race.
You’re probably right Steve about Altoir being a steering job, we will see. I think that’s one of the arguments for not creating these races like the JLT, is it’s detracted massively from the Arkle. Put Yorkhill in the race and it has a completely different complexion to it
If it rains, Acapella Bourgeois?
People laughed at me when I said Altior was still value at 1/3 for the Arkle.
We know Yorkhill isn’t running and I believe Altior should be 1/8. I am not sure I would even offer that if I were the bookie. He’s 1/5 in places now and seems certain to face the next best thing to a walkover come the day. He arrives rated 1 lb more than Sprinter Sacre in his year and does not meet anything like the calibre of Cue Card and Menorah, who took Sprinter Sacre on in vain in the Arkle.
Altior was a fair bit better than Sprinter Sacre over hurdles, so it’s not the biggest shock that he is so highly rated, so early in his career. Only fall or injury can prevent him from rolling up the hill a long way clear.
Similarly, Douvan looks a lock. Altior and Un De Sceaux seem unlikely to turn up, so Fox Norton will be next in the betting on the day. Tizzard’s horse is talented enough but was put well in his place by Altior. If Fox Norton were my horse I would go Ryanair, rather than run for second in the Queen Mum but some owners seem obsessed with trying the impossible, so he’ll probably end up chasing Douvan home at a suitably remote distance.
I will be opposing the following favourites/close to favourites:-
Supreme Novices Melon
JLT Yorkhill
Champion Hurdle Yanworth
Neptune Neon Wolf
Gold Cup Cue Card
Mares Hurdle Vroum Vroum Mag
Mares Novices Let’s DanceThese are all too short in my opinion. I am also against Limini in the Champion Hurdle, Bouver D’Air in the same race and Djakadam in the Gold Cup. Un De Sceaux is getting too short in the Ryanair at 5/2 now so he may be a lay. I thought he was a fair price at 4/1-9/2 but not if he reaches 2/1 or less.
I have an ante-post roll up on Altior, Uknowwhatimeanharry, Finian’s Oscar and Death Duty (in Arkle, Stayers, Neptune and Albert Bartlett) It’s been a while since I landed one of them, namely 2003, when I had Back In Front, Azertyuiop, Moscow Flyer, Baracouda and Best Mate. Oh Happy days
I get you, but I wouldn’t take 1/8 on a horse to get around. It only take for him to misjudge one, stumble or even have one come down in front of him. I think he is all class, I think he will win but value… I’m not sure about.
I’m happy to take on Uknowwhatimeanharry, Yorkhill and Death Duty.
I fancy a horse against each – Jezki, Politologue and Monalee.
A horse that refuses to be beaten is the major plus. West Approach doesn’t seem to win but for Death Duty this is a different challenge to anything he has faced before. I think he’s a worthy favourite but its far from a gimme..
I like Monalee. I think he will improve for better ground and could reverse the form with Death Duty as a result of the ground and extra distance. At the prices I think he represents a good each way bet.
For what it’s worth. I think Politologue is the best each way bet of the festival. The closer it gets, the more confident I am.
Last ten winners all won at least 2 hurdle races.
Negative for the following: Melon, Bunk Off Early, Ballyandy, Consul De Thaix.
Neon Wolf seems to have been hammered for this the last few days.
If Moon Racer does go for The Champion which I think is insane Neon Wolf will probably carry my money in this.
Has anyone seen any reports to suggest Neon Wolf will be running here?
Betfair would suggest Neptune is the target but he is a sea of blue on Oddschecker more than likely due to firms going NRNB. If Moon Racer doesn’t go here and NW stays in the Neptune, I don’t know what to back.
Decisions decisions!
Last ten winners all won at least 2 hurdle races.
Negative for the following: Melon, Bunk Off Early, Ballyandy, Consul De Thaix.
Neon Wolf seems to have been hammered for this the last few days.
If Moon Racer does go for The Champion which I think is insane Neon Wolf will probably carry my money in this.
Has anyone seen any reports to suggest Neon Wolf will be running here?
You still haven’t answered my question?
I guess the answer to that question is that in the tinpot race, he beat MBE comfortably and he is a 10/1 shot for this. So whether that warrants the attention or not is a matter of opinion. I wouldn’t be surprised if the winner came from that tinpot race…..
Surely they won’t run Capitiane before Aintree after the Kelso debacle. The horse has an awful lot to prove now and although you can forgive the horse for the shocking piece of placement by the trainer, when it made about as much sense as running Sole Power in the Melbourne Cup, he was a very tame favourite on the previous occasion, when his backers were already chasing their losses on the FOBT’s before Capitaine came over the last flight.
Nicholls confirmed Capitaine won’t run at a preview night last week.
that day I learned that Value is something that bookmakers create for themselves, not for the punter. Anyone in the know would have been on that horse, but not one person stood in a bookies backing every punted horse 2 mins before the off. The horse was called Wendel. Just my thoughts on value.
Ah yes, in a Plumpton maiden hurdle?
When the favourite Kerayasi jumped poorly and second fav Murphy pulled hard. Both those two along with Wendel having their first runs over jumps. Wendel after a long absence and first start in this country/since coming over from Germany. No form to go on and pot luck how horses will run/jump unless you’re in the know. No form for off course bookmakers to work on either. Perfect example of a race where off course bookmakers take no chances, “Early prices” are betting to a massive over-round. Everything put in extremely short and allowed to drift out.This also perhaps the perfect example of a race “form” punters should keep their money in their pockets. Only punters with inside knowledge have any chance of getting “value”. Your 7/2 proved excellent value, FF; just not as excellent as 10/1.
Although I would not advise judging “Value” as a concept on one race alone.
You remember it well!! lol.
Yes I agree with you, it was just the day when I realised that a ‘book’ isn’t always what you think it is. If that makes sense!
I fancy Melon to outstay and outclass them up the hill
As for people complaining about the price, would you rather be on Melon if he wins at 5-2 or some “value” horse at 14-1 that gets stuffed?
What bookie gives odds after it has won, Judge?
Point is nobody knows whether the 5/2 shot or 14/1 or some other horse will win.
Sadly, we all need to come to a decision on who to back before it passes the post. Therefore, “value” must be taken in to account.You can’t eat value mate. I’d rather back the winner than sit in my armchair safe in the knowledge that my horse may have got stuffed but at least it was “value”
Read what I said again, Judge.
Your “I’d rather back a winner” does not come in to it. When placing your bet @ 5/2 you do not know if it will win or lose; therefore “value” is all that matters.
Yes, the 5/2 shot undoubtedly has a far better chance of winning, but that’s why bookmakers are offering much shorter odds on that horse than the one @ 14/1. But I think you’re mistaking what “value” means.If believing 5/2 under-estimates its chance then it is good value.
If believing the 14/1 under-estimates its chance then that one is good value.ie “Value” punters often believe a 5/2 shot is value and the 14/1 shot not value.
Once upon a time I received a call from a reliable source telling me to back a horse. 3rd November 2008 to be precise. The horse was 7/2f on the early prices in a 12 horse race so naturally I asked if I should back it to win, or each way. Without a moments hesitation I was told not to back it each way and that it would win. So I backed it and took the 7/2. I went back to the bookies to watch the race and much to my dismay I saw the horse open up 4/1 and drift to 10/1 (5th in the betting). At this point I was utterly dismayed and felt I had been tucked up. I tried to call my source but couldn’t get through, I was on tilt. The horse proceeded to win pretty much as he liked and that day I learned that Value is something that bookmakers create for themselves, not for the punter. Anyone in the know would have been on that horse, but not one person stood in a bookies backing every punted horse 2 mins before the off. The horse was called Wendel. Just my thoughts on value.
Would any of you guys be keen on Peace & Co. Henderson said in his interview with RUK that he’s had a wind op and is a different horse and could go to the imperial cup and then here? Is that not too close together for a horse that has been off the track for a while??
16/1 NRNB
(my racing knowledge is still minimal so excuse me if this is way off!
With Henderson you can never rule anything out. It would be a big ask though to win both for any horse, let alone one having been off for a year. He was pretty mediocre when last seen too but if the wind op helps him rediscover to within a stone or so of his juvenile form then he would certainly be up to winning the Imperial Cup.
The problem with Peace n Co last year was that he was an absolute lunatic. He tugged and pulled away his chances with nothing left to give at the business end. If you believe that Hendo has sorted out the horses head,then he’s chucked in off 149 (i think thats correct). After winning the Triumph in 2015,he was as short as 5/1 for last years Champion Hurdle. I’ve punted 2 others – Ivanovich Gorbatov (last years Triumph Winner) and Hargam (3rd in the Triumph 2 years ago) Both have been incuspicous in their runs this year with a festival handicap in mind. At 25s and 50s,im involved
I can see why you’d fancy those two.
Would any of you guys be keen on Peace & Co. Henderson said in his interview with RUK that he’s had a wind op and is a different horse and could go to the imperial cup and then here? Is that not too close together for a horse that has been off the track for a while??
16/1 NRNB
(my racing knowledge is still minimal so excuse me if this is way off!
With Henderson you can never rule anything out. It would be a big ask though to win both for any horse, let alone one having been off for a year. He was pretty mediocre when last seen too but if the wind op helps him rediscover to within a stone or so of his juvenile form then he would certainly be up to winning the Imperial Cup.
