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Good to have you back Steve, this site badly missed your insight
I fancy Melon to outstay and outclass them up the hill
As for people complaining about the price, would you rather be on Melon if he wins at 5-2 or some “value” horse at 14-1 that gets stuffed?
I fancy Melon to outstay and outclass them up the hill
As for people complaining about the price, would you rather be on Melon if he wins at 5-2 or some “value” horse at 14-1 that gets stuffed?
What bookie gives odds after it has won, Judge?
Point is nobody knows whether the 5/2 shot or 14/1 or some other horse will win.
Sadly, we all need to come to a decision on who to back before it passes the post. Therefore, “value” must be taken in to account.
Value Is EverythingGood to have you back Steve, this site badly missed your insight
Am I the only person to find this a little bit insulting to the many very good contributors on here.
Just looked again at Charli Parcs two races.
Held up in both races, but on the outer when so impressive with plenty of room/nothing to his left. Travelled supremely well and won with plenty in hand.
On Saturday on the inner, rail to the right and horses in front to the left and behind him. Didn’t go with the same enthusiasm until travelling with a bit more fluency once having an unhindered view of the front in the home straight – before falling.
Held up on the outer can be a lot different to held up on the inner, latter being far more claustrophobic.
Possible Charli Parcs could do a lot better if kept to the outer (nothing to the side) although on evidence of early stages will need something immediately in front to settle.
Value Is EverythingGood to have you back Steve, this site badly missed your insight
Am I the only person to find this a little bit insulting to the many very good contributors on here.
that’s your negative interpretation, I intended it as a compliment to steve.
I fancy Melon to outstay and outclass them up the hill
As for people complaining about the price, would you rather be on Melon if he wins at 5-2 or some “value” horse at 14-1 that gets stuffed?
What bookie gives odds after it has won, Judge?
Point is nobody knows whether the 5/2 shot or 14/1 or some other horse will win.
Sadly, we all need to come to a decision on who to back before it passes the post. Therefore, “value” must be taken in to account.
You can’t eat value mate. I’d rather back the winner than sit in my armchair safe in the knowledge that my horse may have got stuffed but at least it was “value”
Good to have you back Steve, this site badly missed your insight
Am I the only person to find this a little bit insulting to the many very good contributors on here.
I hope it’s not insulting to other contributors. It certainly shouldn’t be taken that way.
I’ve made over 5000 posts on this site. Right or wrong in my opinion, it was always well researched and well considered in the approach. I’ve helped a lot of people by posting videos of races they may have missed, particularly from French racing. If someone asks for my opinion on any horse I’ll always give it my best shot by watching the race a few times and giving an honest appraisal, whether it disagrees with their own view or not.
Newer members need not feel insulted, it’s early days and only time can help cement you on a forum.
A forum needs a mix of stalwarts, newcomers and people who drop in and out of the picture. It’s all part of the overall make-up of any long standing Forum.
There are excellent contributors here as you have said. I’ll be doing my best to match the standard and, as always, trying to spot early ante-post opportunities, as I did when nominating Caravaggio and Lady Aurelia for Royal Ascot races two months prior to the races last season.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I fancy Melon to outstay and outclass them up the hill
As for people complaining about the price, would you rather be on Melon if he wins at 5-2 or some “value” horse at 14-1 that gets stuffed?
What bookie gives odds after it has won, Judge?
Point is nobody knows whether the 5/2 shot or 14/1 or some other horse will win.
Sadly, we all need to come to a decision on who to back before it passes the post. Therefore, “value” must be taken in to account.You can’t eat value mate. I’d rather back the winner than sit in my armchair safe in the knowledge that my horse may have got stuffed but at least it was “value”
Read what I said again, Judge.
Your “I’d rather back a winner” does not come in to it. When placing your bet @ 5/2 you do not know if it will win or lose; therefore “value” is all that matters.
Yes, the 5/2 shot undoubtedly has a far better chance of winning, but that’s why bookmakers are offering much shorter odds on that horse than the one @ 14/1. But I think you’re mistaking what “value” means.If believing 5/2 under-estimates its chance then it is good value.
If believing the 14/1 under-estimates its chance then that one is good value.ie “Value” punters often believe a 5/2 shot is value and the 14/1 shot not value.
Value Is EverythingYes I know all this Ginger, but I don’t care.
All that matters is whether or not Melon wins
I’ve lost enough money on loser “value” bets over the years.
Also I reckon the first day at the festival you need to get off to a good start. If you have a few losers then it can send you into a spiral. Besides who am I to judge whether the horse is value or not? Clearly it should not be shorter than evens, but given the record of mullins in this race in recent years, you could certainly argue that it represents value at the current price.
Yes I know all this Ginger, but I don’t care.
All that matters is whether or not Melon wins
I’ve lost enough money on loser “value” bets over the years.
Also I reckon the first day at the festival you need to get off to a good start. If you have a few losers then it can send you into a spiral. Besides who am I to judge whether the horse is value or not? Clearly it should not be shorter than evens, but given the record of mullins in this race in recent years, you could certainly argue that it represents value at the current price.
I understand where your coming from Judge. Sometimes the 1st race can set the tone for the rest of the day/festival. This is a slightly biased opinion but i hope Melon wins by half the track, then i can relax into the rest of the festival
Capitane jumped really well in front but carries head too high. Got bags of ability but needs a very easy lead and gives up once challenged. Squiggle horse.
That’s probably a good shout.
Good to have you back Steve, this site badly missed your insight
Am I the only person to find this a little bit insulting to the many very good contributors on here.
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Good to have you back Steve, this site badly missed your insight
Am I the only person to find this a little bit insulting to the many very good contributors on here.
I hope it’s not insulting to other contributors. It certainly shouldn’t be taken that way.
Ignore the troll, Steve. He didn’t deserve your reply.
I don’t think Kris was being anti-Steve (welcome back), more a case of being supportive of everyone else who posts on the Forum.
I fancy Melon to outstay and outclass them up the hill
As for people complaining about the price, would you rather be on Melon if he wins at 5-2 or some “value” horse at 14-1 that gets stuffed?
What bookie gives odds after it has won, Judge?
Point is nobody knows whether the 5/2 shot or 14/1 or some other horse will win.
Sadly, we all need to come to a decision on who to back before it passes the post. Therefore, “value” must be taken in to account.You can’t eat value mate. I’d rather back the winner than sit in my armchair safe in the knowledge that my horse may have got stuffed but at least it was “value”
Read what I said again, Judge.
Your “I’d rather back a winner” does not come in to it. When placing your bet @ 5/2 you do not know if it will win or lose; therefore “value” is all that matters.
Yes, the 5/2 shot undoubtedly has a far better chance of winning, but that’s why bookmakers are offering much shorter odds on that horse than the one @ 14/1. But I think you’re mistaking what “value” means.If believing 5/2 under-estimates its chance then it is good value.
If believing the 14/1 under-estimates its chance then that one is good value.ie “Value” punters often believe a 5/2 shot is value and the 14/1 shot not value.
Once upon a time I received a call from a reliable source telling me to back a horse. 3rd November 2008 to be precise. The horse was 7/2f on the early prices in a 12 horse race so naturally I asked if I should back it to win, or each way. Without a moments hesitation I was told not to back it each way and that it would win. So I backed it and took the 7/2. I went back to the bookies to watch the race and much to my dismay I saw the horse open up 4/1 and drift to 10/1 (5th in the betting). At this point I was utterly dismayed and felt I had been tucked up. I tried to call my source but couldn’t get through, I was on tilt. The horse proceeded to win pretty much as he liked and that day I learned that Value is something that bookmakers create for themselves, not for the punter. Anyone in the know would have been on that horse, but not one person stood in a bookies backing every punted horse 2 mins before the off. The horse was called Wendel. Just my thoughts on value.
Movewiththetimes, I think, has every chance of reversing form with Ballyandy; the former will not have to give weight to the latter for once and was set to finish 2nd at Cheltenham behind Moon Racer earlier in the season before being badly hampered. I think he’ll go close if lining up, whether he’s progressing enough to win is another matter but I don’t believe he should be twice the price of his Newbury conqueror.
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