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I think one of the problems when you go on these forums is you tend to overthink it a lot and end up backing a lot of runners, or “savers”
because people who go on forums tend to over analyse more than the usual punter.
as this derby is more wide open than most it’s tempting to back half the field. however so far I’ve resisted added to my inital bet on eminent and not got plunged into the usual saver bets. (i do have a double on enable/cracksman as well)
It seems to me there’s no obvious reason why O’Brien and Godolphin aren’t just running their usual also rans. The fact they are running so many suggests as others have said that they don’t have anything special.
Of course if Martyn Meade had five derby horses he’d probably also run five, however it does seem like there is no star in the coolmore or godolphin ranks.
was very tempted to back venice beach today and when I went for a run I spotted a van with “capri” written on the side of it which I almost took to be an omen, clearly I’m losing it
Its funny you say that Judge as when I was in Spain last week, I walked past this sign that said Acapulco and I thought the exact thing!!! Im not always the superstitious type but thought it was fate.
Bad news for those who backed Diore Lia. BHA have prevented Gina Mangan from riding the horse so all plans scrapped and more details to follow shortly….
Top 5 UK
Ascot – simply the best – have to be in grandstand, at least, for best views. No silver ring.
Cheltenham – day one of the festival every time – great views from the grandstand.
Yarmouth – family holidays and tradition
Sandown – easy to get to, great racing and good views
Lingfield – first track I ever went to and many family days outLeast fav 5 UK
Stratford – viewing is pretty poor unless you pay for the best ticket.
Lingfield AW – again, no where to stand and the AW track is some distance from the turf track.
Newmarket Rowley and July – can never seem to back a winner ane overall a nightmare to get to.
Brighton – only been there once. Everything was ok but the standard of racing was terrible, so very hard to back a winner. Will give it another go and thay may sway my opinion.Top 5 ROW
Meydan – hands down one of the best racecourses I have ever stepped foot on. Not only do you getba lush holiday in Dubai, thw Dubai World Cup is the cherry on top of the cake. If you havent been you must.
Chantilly – visited first time last year for the Arc. Get there early for a good view of the course but the track itself and background scenary is amazing.
Longchamp – clearly theres a new grandstand being built but again, get out there on Arc day and you wont be disappointed. Great bands playing and top class racing.
Leopardstown – easy to get to from Ireland, good craic and good racing.
Curragh – again, I havent been since the renovations but this is a track well worth visiting. I went on Champion day two years back and got to see wonder horses Minding and Order of St George. Not only that but they perade ex horses in the paddock before racing for you to see. Hurricane Fly was one when I went.Two massive performances in Ireland this weekend. Those two certainly look like adding to the tally this year, with plenty of races to go at.
Churchill’s next races look to be the St James & Sussex Stakes. Winter for the Coronation Stakes and Falmouth or Nassau Stakes.
Next port of call Epsom
WH down to 4/1 now
Good luck mate. Two very good winners in the main races…can surely go onto bigger and better.
Somehow also unlucky to hit the crossbar after having a big race last weekend.
Lets hope they all stay fit and well and you boys can make a nice withdrawal at the bank
lYoud be interested to know how Wesley ranks Lady Aurelia and Acapulco’s chances, on the basis that they are set to both head to this race, the latter now in the care of AOB.
Not sure if you guys have seen but I read that Seventh Heaven is out injured ubtil Autumn….
http://www.skysports.com/racing/news/12426/10890010/seventh-heaven-out-until-the-autumn
Good luck – hope he does it, as watching AOB as a kid is one of the reasons I got into racing.
My gut feeling was right unfortunately and the wonderful grey gelding has been retired. Very sad for racing indeed but sounds like the correct decision.
Not sure why Solow is still in the Queen Anne betting, Freddy Head said the horse had suffered a setback and won’t run until September at the earliest.
Is that confirmed Steve? Very disappointing if so, makes me wonder will they even bother racing him come September.
Congrats on Ribchester as well, for once Godolphin seemed to have their tactics sorted out and he was never going to lose when given such an easy lead. He will probably go off a lot shorter than 5/2 for the Queen Anne, but there is just something about the horse that I can’t bring myself to back with confidence. Even if he goes and hoses up I wont be too disappointed on missing out.
Voleur – heres the article about Solow
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/future-plans-for-solow-unclear/66097
Not sure why Solow is still in the Queen Anne betting, Freddy Head said the horse had suffered a setback and won’t run until September at the earliest.
You can get 5/2 Ribchester with SkyBet for the Queen Anne, he is as low as 5/4 with BoyleSports.
I think 5/2 is a great price. I had already backed him at 7/2, because I felt he would win today.
Minding is unlikely to run and who else is there to be concerned about really?
Today’s race started with the pacemaker falling out of the stalls. His jockey showed zero concern and made no effort to lead. I think it was a deliberate ploy and Ribchester was allowed to set his own pace. I felt that would rule Somehow right out of it and she never showed. The money on Somehow was classic lemming money. A horse unproven at the trip and with weaker form, being backed by people who chose not to take her at 7/1 this morning but were then running like headless chickens to snare half those odds.
Lightning Spear ran a sound race but Ribchester cleared away from him on the rail. Galileo Gold was very disappointing. He held a decent position early but Frankie was then weaving like the NFL wide receiver Swervin’ Mervin Hernandez and the colt weakened quite disappointingly, a tame effort that seemed to echo the market weakness, rather than Harry Herbert’s confidence that the Guineas winner was right back to his best.
The race was rather spoiled for me by the sheer number of hangers-on in the commentary box, flitting from Francesca Cumani to Hayley Turner, back to the largely unintelligible Kieren Fallon and so forth, seemed to me to be a case of at least two too many voices for actual requirements.
All we really needed was a big button reading Ribchester 11/4 BET a couple of days ago
Steve – youre on fire. You dont happen to know tonight’s Lotto results do you???:mail:
I go on holiday on Monday so decided I wouldnt have a bet this week, much to my own frustrations as I would have had a few winners!
Regardless, I missed the decent price on Ribchester for the Lockinge but because there seemed to be a majority consensus that Ribchester would win today, I adventured and took the 7/2 yesterday on him for the Queen Anne.
Knowing my luck he’ll go and lose….or get injured!
Fair play to everyone who backed him.
Very good first run of the year by Magical Memory today, took the 14’s to win. Really traveled into the race like a class horse until the ground and fitness told.
Agreed it was a cracking performance by MM at York. Amazing comparison to similar conditions he encountered in the Sprint Cup at Haydock where he was a long way last.
I hope he has another big win in him, as hes an absolute beauty.
Couldnt agree more with you Steve. Solow has been brilliant for me and I just have such a bad feeling that he wont return to race action.
The first and only time ive seen him live was at Meydan and he was an absolute machine. Maxime Guyon destroyed the field in a canter and from that moment I realised he was a good thing. He followed up for me at Ascot and Goodwood as well, albeit the prices werent great from what I remember.
I was devastated when he was ruled out through injury as I had a decent price for a repeat in the 2016 Dubai Turf.
Like others, I saw the betting for the QA and saw Solow towards the top, tried Googling any news about Solow but nothing. I therefore decided to leave it just in case and its a shame what Freddy has said about him not performing well at home.
I fear like Annie Power, at the ripe age of seven, he may have lost his zest and he may well be retired. Appreciate hes a gelding but hes already amassed £4m in prize money, so owes nothing to his owners.
Fingers crossed we see him back.
What are peoples opinions on Dubai Thunder that won today for Godolphin?
Appreciate it was only his first run but he deatroyed the field by 10 lengths and is a half brother to Farhh. Looks like he enjoyed himself.
Well played Ham for getting 50s.
I did Dartmouth at 4/1.
There is still scope for Stoute to wring improvement from him at 5YO and he’s one of the few I would see as sure to go close today.
I think combination of trip and track should suit and his win from Highland Reel at Royal Ascot in the Hardwicke is the best piece of form here. 2/2 at this sort of trip, I think he will be a tough nut to crack with the best jockey on board.
Well played again Steve. Two nice tips in two days! It was just a watching exercise for me. Too many horses in the field are favourites of mine that have won me nice money previously. Dartmouth, Endless Time and the lovely Simple Verse. Had i have backed one, the other would have won lol. Its just what i do!
I was very impressed with Dartmouth and thought Simple Verse had an absolute blinder and was unlucky not to win.
Again, well played Steve….I think its time to drop ‘Caution’ from your user name
@Judge – I like reading your synopsis of the races. Shame to see you step away but understand if thats your final decision.
Aljezeera finally makes it to the racecourse on Saturday at Newbury against Gosden’s Gracious Diana, hopefully, a good performance will see her make the Oaks line up.
Do you not think it might be a bit too close to Epsom to run her? Im not saying dont send her but might be a bit tight trying to prep her to run in the big race.
Apparently the owner will make the final decision on Crystal Ocean so still not completely ruled out. He stayed on well.
Unfortunately todays race was never going to tell us an awful amount based on the ground it was run on. Id be amazed if it was like that come Derby day.
I think if I were in the AOB camp id be leaning very strongly towards putting Churchill in there. He has nothing to lose and everything to gain in my opinion….not that its worth much
ground wasn’t that slow if you look at the times
Conditions wise is more what I meant. Cant say ive had a chance to look at the times.
If you were Ballydoyle would you send Churchill? Theres literally question marks about all in the current market…
Crystal Ocean is a “Man the lifeboats” job this morning. From 3/1 and with favourite Cracksman a non-runner, Stoute’s horse is out to 7/1.
Benbatl is fav now but too short to my eyes at 7/2, Rekindling is 4/1 next best.
I thought Permian looked a strong stayer last time and I had a bit on him at 14/1, in the hope he can run the guts out of the rest of them.
Permian 14/1
Well played
Apparently the owner will make the final decision on Crystal Ocean so still not completely ruled out. He stayed on well.
Unfortunately todays race was never going to tell us an awful amount based on the ground it was run on. Id be amazed if it was like that come Derby day.
I think if I were in the AOB camp id be leaning very strongly towards putting Churchill in there. He has nothing to lose and everything to gain in my opinion….not that its worth much
l
