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THE TIN MAN 8/1
At last bag that group one over this CD when he won champions sprint it look like he start of at York before coming here.And think there is more progress in him this year.
I reckon a three year old might win this.
Are they eligible to run in the race?
If so I think one will win, maybe Dream castle.
Don’t think much of the older sprinters at all and think they’re very vulnerable to a younger horse coming along and usurping them, particularly a frankel bred horse.
Don’t forget in the guineas he set better fractions over the first five furlongs than the sprinters did on the same card.
where are you getting these prices from anyway graeme? I can’t find any prices on this.
I also forgot about caravaggio, he could also be a monster over sprint distances.
I would imagine the 3 yr olds will mostly be heading for their on race the Commonwealth Cup rather than going up against the older horses
Very good first run of the year by Magical Memory today, took the 14’s to win. Really traveled into the race like a class horse until the ground and fitness told.
Very good first run of the year by Magical Memory today, took the 14’s to win. Really traveled into the race like a class horse until the ground and fitness told.
Agreed it was a cracking performance by MM at York. Amazing comparison to similar conditions he encountered in the Sprint Cup at Haydock where he was a long way last.
I hope he has another big win in him, as hes an absolute beauty.
Limato is seemingly a certain runner. Fast ground and a stiff 6 furlongs are exactly what he needs and if he brings his A-game then the competition don’t have a chance. He’ll probably be trading at about 7/2 maybe 4/1 come final declarations so I’ve taken 5/1 with BetVictor.
I’ve played a long shot as well with Long On Value at 33/1. I can’t work out why this American runner is twice the odds of his Meydan conqueror, The Right Man (who probably owed his victory to the soft ground), when with another stride placings would have been reversed. He looked smart in the Al Quoz, will benefit for the likely quick surface and connections are more than keen.
On first look the two favourites seemed excellent bets @ 5/2 and 13/2 particularly the latter. Thought I was going to back the two of them and little else. However, looking through the form am amazed not one of the 19 runners made the running last time out. Several like to at least go with the pace, but nothing likes actually forcing it. I can see an upset. May not be run as quickly as most sprints, leading to hold up horses trying to come through sprinters who are themselves quickening. Possible Limato and The Tin Man will be inconvenienced. Of what there is of pace it seems mostly in single figure draws too. Ryan might need to switch Limato from stall 15, but at least he usually races mid-division. The Tin Man is held up or even dropped out and may well get too far back and/or need luck finding a way through. I’ve now only had half-savers on the two favourites. Looking instead for those who might get positional advantage.
Although seemingly exposed as not good enough under usual conditions, Kachy is tongue tied for the first time. Effective at 5f, so if (and it’s still quite a big IF) able to go slow early could kick off the front. He’s a small bet @ 48/1.
Dancing Star improved to win the Stewards Cup under quite a big weight for a 3 year old of 8-12 in similar conditions to tomorrow. Three races since, two of which (one on softer and one 5f) didn’t suit. So it’s possible there’s more improvement to come. A main bet @ 29/1.
SUEDOIS is by far the biggest bet, a mixture of win and each way. 5th in this last year, beaten less than a length. Then 2 lengths runner-up to Limato in July Cup. Hasn’t had 6f on a sound surface since. Probably unsuited by soft ground this season. Visored for the first time here. I rate Suedois a fair 12/1 shot and is available at double those odds!. Best bet of the week? No, best bet of the month! @ around 26/1 (win) and 22/1 each way.
Value Is EverythingMy 100% Book:
Limato 9/4, The Tin Man 11/2, Magical Memory 10/1, Tasleet 10/1, Suedois 12/1, Librisi Breeze 15/1, Long On Value 18/1, Dancing Star 18/1, The Right Man 28/1, Kachy 28/1, Growl 50/1, Al Jazi 66/1, Acclaim 66/1, Comicas 100/1, Tupi 800/1, Windfast 800/1, Finsbury Square 800/1, Kassia 1000/1, Mobsta 2000/1.Value Is EverythingI was a fully-paid Sued-head last year GT, but he just hasn’t looked the same to me this season. Sure the ground could be the reason, but there has been something awkward in the way he has been moving. I’m still not convinced that Davy O’Meara is at full throttle in his new stables.
I wonder if Comicas might be an e/w bet. Would you lay me 66 or 80s in a 125% book GT?
He showed good form in Dubai and shaped really well despite not handling the surface last time out. With the Appleby yard buzzing all week, I think he can outrun his odds and make the frame.
Good old Limato feels a cut above, although I doubt he’ll hit a backable price. If he does drift, given the wacky stories about his experience in Dubai, it’s probably not just a benign market move.
I wonder if Comicas might be an e/w bet. Would you lay me 66 or 80s in a 125% book GT?
No LS, as 66/1 is my price for Comicas in my 100% book, so for a 125% book add a mark up…
I’ll offer you 40/1.
I can see your logic with Suedois, could be something to do wih the move; but at 20+/1 think it’s worth taking a chance it’s a going thing (and time of year).
Value Is EverythingI love Limato but Tasleet will win today and I imagine be the champion sprinter this season.
Good luck.
Suedois has never won in this country, his last win was nearly 2 years ago, where coincidentally he beat The Right Man by a neck. Sure he has consistent form in the top sprints but not for me…
Limato is the class act here, but I’m willing to take a leap of faith and back WINDFAST eachway. Brian Meehan has always thought he could pop up and plunder one of the best races and although thoroughly exposed he has a good draw on the stands side and SDS could really galvanise him from the front. He was 4th in the Jersey a few years ago and ran well on his reapparance last time. 50/1 is worth a try.
Magical Memory for me at 8/1 and an interest on Long On Value at 25/1.
This could be another cracking race!!
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