Diamond Jubilee stakes 2017

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This topic contains 47 replies, has 18 voices, and was last updated by Gingertipster Gingertipster 2 years ago.

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 48 total)
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  • #1306230
    raymo61
    raymo61
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    • Total Posts 4311

    Magical Memory for me at 8/1 and an interest on Long On Value at 25/1.

    This could be another cracking race!! :good:

    #1306238
    CharlesOlney
    CharlesOlney
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    • Total Posts 2050

    Happy with Limato at 5s and Long On Value at 33s. I’m not a Tin Man or Magical Memory fan and won’t go in again, although I fear Tasleet.

    #1306246
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 25856

    Suedois has never won in this country, his last win was nearly 2 years ago, where coincidentally he beat The Right Man by a neck. Sure he has consistent form in the top sprints but not for me…

    Limato is the class act here, but I’m willing to take a leap of faith and back WINDFAST eachway. Brian Meehan has always thought he could pop up and plunder one of the best races and although thoroughly exposed he has a good draw on the stands side and SDS could really galvanise him from the front. He was 4th in the Jersey a few years ago and ran well on his reapparance last time. 50/1 is worth a try.

    It’s form that matters (how good the horse has been shown to be) Joliff.
    Would you rate a maiden win better than a Group 1 second? ;-)
    Second to Limato in the July Cup. If Limato runs below form today…

    value is everything
    #1306254
    joliff
    joliff
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    • Total Posts 351

    I take your point of view, but I do prefer horses who like to get their head in front – Suedois is admirably always there or thereabouts in the top sprints but has never really shown me that he can finally win one – today might be the day however! He didn’t cover himself in glory in a winnable race at the Curragh last time when favourite and conditions in his favour and I do think he’d like some cut here. He did have every chance last year but couldn’t quite match the front three – Limato should take all the beating for me again.

    #1306265
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 15269

    Could change my mind every 2 minutes about those at the head of the market, so a few quid each way on Growl at 40’s with 5 places available, as he can thrown in the odd good run in this kind of company.

    #1306277
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 25856

    He didn’t cover himself in glory in a winnable race at the Curragh last time when favourite and conditions in his favour and I do think he’d like some cut here.

    :scratch:

    His form is much better on a sound surface than it is on a soft surface Joliff. Ground last twice too soft. Before that ran well to be beaten 3 1/2 lengths over 7f on good ground (barely staying the trip). Got within 2 lengths of Limato on good-firm at 6f in July Cup.

    Can’t see how you can say “he’d like some cut”.

    No doubt Suedois should not be priced like Limato or The Tin Man… and it is possible there’s another reason for the disappointing efforts other than “too soft”. Just think 20+/1 (33/1 on the machine) is far too big.

    value is everything
    #1306280
    BigG
    BigG
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    • Total Posts 5662

    If my ante post bogey this year continues, LIBRISA BREEZE will probably
    bolt before the start. If not, I think he has a decent chance. I nabbed 14/1 but there’s
    not been much of a move on him and he’s 12/1. He won the Challenge Cup at Ascot last year
    over 7f, but he had such a burst of speed to win that, that I don’t think the drop to 6f
    will inconvenience him. He’s a decent shot at those odds.

    #1306282
    joliff
    joliff
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    His last win came on ground described as very soft in Deauville, then was 2nd in the Cammidge on soft, and then the Clipper on good, though winning time that day suggested it was a bit easier (indeed the victor Magical Memory tends to like it soft). Granted the July Cup was fast ground when second to Limato, but was well beaten in 2nd. He has since finished a creditable 3rd on soft in the Sprint Cup at Haydock…this all suggests softer ground is preferable to me. I can’t see how you say ground was too soft recently, was favourite for the Curragh when it should have suited. They have reached for the visor which suggests a bit of desperation to me…

    #1306296
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 25856

    His last win came on ground described as very soft in Deauville, then was 2nd in the Cammidge on soft, and then the Clipper on good, though winning time that day suggested it was a bit easier (indeed the victor Magical Memory tends to like it soft). Granted the July Cup was fast ground when second to Limato, but was well beaten in 2nd. He has since finished a creditable 3rd on soft in the Sprint Cup at Haydock…this all suggests softer ground is preferable to me. I can’t see how you say ground was too soft recently, was favourite for the Curragh when it should have suited. They have reached for the visor which suggests a bit of desperation to me…

    What is Seudois’s best form Joliff?

    Beaten 1 length by Mobsta (a horse I rate a 2000/1 chance today) in the Cammidge? On Soft.
    Beaten 1/2 length by Magical Memory in the Clipper? On Good.
    Beaten 4 1/4 lengths by Quiet Reflection in the Sprint Cup, with Mehronissa only beaten 1/2 length and Mr Lupton 1/2 length further back? On Soft.
    Beaten 2 lengths by Limato with Quiet Reflection a head away in 3rd and Kings Stand winner Profitable 1 1/4 behind her in the July Cup? On Good-firm.

    I’d say beaten 2 lengths by Limato with Quiet Reflection and Profitable behind is his best form by at least 8 lbs.
    Yes, I’d like him to have run better – even considering the ground – last time, but we are talking bout a 20+/1 shot.

    Along with a possible pace advantage today worth a bet imo

    value is everything
    #1306299
    joliff
    joliff
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    You’re basing the fact he likes fast ground on one race? Either way, he needs a career best and as a 6 year old, that’s unlikely…20/1 is a fair reflection of his chances today i FEEL.

    #1306306
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    • Total Posts 8281

    I can’t bet on this race, I am uninspired this year.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1306309
    Gingertipster
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    You’re basing the fact he likes fast ground on one race? Either way, he needs a career best and as a 6 year old, that’s unlikely…20/1 is a fair reflection of his chances today i FEEL.

    I said better on a “sound surface”. Sound means between firm and good going.

    So no, am not judging it on one race.

    He was also only beaten half a length in last year’s Jubilee on Good going, when on his upward trend.

    No, he doesn’t “need a career best”. He’s one of the few prominent runners. Of all the prominent runners he has the best form. So if having the run of the race – with those with better form held up and not suited by pace – it can make more than 2 lengths difference.

    Chances are someting will make a good pace, but there is a fair possibility of a less than truly run race given all runners run style.

    value is everything
    #1306310

    MTOTO88
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    • Total Posts 283

    Great shout there, GT. OK didn’t win but very game run for a horse that went off at 38.00 BSP – traded 2.50 in running (1.10 place in running). It’s all about spotting value. I am sure your point is that if you backed 40 such horses at 40/1 that you believe should be 20/1 then in the long run with the expected 2 winners then you would be 100% ROI. Top man. You got to bring back your tipping thread and forget your detractors. :good:

    #1306311
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8281

    THE TIN MAN 8/1

    At last bag that group one over this CD when he won champions sprint it look like he start of at York before coming here.And think there is more progress in him this year.

    Well done Darren, The Tin Man never wins for me, so I thought I would give you a chance by not backing him.

    Limato is another who seems to save his worst for when I am on.

    Well done The Tin Man fans, this race just never caught my imagination this year at all.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1306316
    CharlesOlney
    CharlesOlney
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    • Total Posts 2050

    Another cracking race fought out at the finish between 3 very class racehorses. I’d fancy Limato to gain revenge at Newmarket, in fact I’ve backed him each-way at 7s.

    The stewards enquiry is ridiculous – the best horse won on the day and well done his supporters.

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