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Suedois has never won in this country, his last win was nearly 2 years ago, where coincidentally he beat The Right Man by a neck. Sure he has consistent form in the top sprints but not for me…
Limato is the class act here, but I’m willing to take a leap of faith and back WINDFAST eachway. Brian Meehan has always thought he could pop up and plunder one of the best races and although thoroughly exposed he has a good draw on the stands side and SDS could really galvanise him from the front. He was 4th in the Jersey a few years ago and ran well on his reapparance last time. 50/1 is worth a try.
It’s form that matters (how good the horse has been shown to be) Joliff.
Would you rate a maiden win better than a Group 1 second?
Second to Limato in the July Cup. If Limato runs below form today…Value Is EverythingI take your point of view, but I do prefer horses who like to get their head in front – Suedois is admirably always there or thereabouts in the top sprints but has never really shown me that he can finally win one – today might be the day however! He didn’t cover himself in glory in a winnable race at the Curragh last time when favourite and conditions in his favour and I do think he’d like some cut here. He did have every chance last year but couldn’t quite match the front three – Limato should take all the beating for me again.
Could change my mind every 2 minutes about those at the head of the market, so a few quid each way on Growl at 40’s with 5 places available, as he can thrown in the odd good run in this kind of company.
He didn’t cover himself in glory in a winnable race at the Curragh last time when favourite and conditions in his favour and I do think he’d like some cut here.
His form is much better on a sound surface than it is on a soft surface Joliff. Ground last twice too soft. Before that ran well to be beaten 3 1/2 lengths over 7f on good ground (barely staying the trip). Got within 2 lengths of Limato on good-firm at 6f in July Cup.
Can’t see how you can say “he’d like some cut”.
No doubt Suedois should not be priced like Limato or The Tin Man… and it is possible there’s another reason for the disappointing efforts other than “too soft”. Just think 20+/1 (33/1 on the machine) is far too big.
Value Is EverythingIf my ante post bogey this year continues, LIBRISA BREEZE will probably
bolt before the start. If not, I think he has a decent chance. I nabbed 14/1 but there’s
not been much of a move on him and he’s 12/1. He won the Challenge Cup at Ascot last year
over 7f, but he had such a burst of speed to win that, that I don’t think the drop to 6f
will inconvenience him. He’s a decent shot at those odds.His last win came on ground described as very soft in Deauville, then was 2nd in the Cammidge on soft, and then the Clipper on good, though winning time that day suggested it was a bit easier (indeed the victor Magical Memory tends to like it soft). Granted the July Cup was fast ground when second to Limato, but was well beaten in 2nd. He has since finished a creditable 3rd on soft in the Sprint Cup at Haydock…this all suggests softer ground is preferable to me. I can’t see how you say ground was too soft recently, was favourite for the Curragh when it should have suited. They have reached for the visor which suggests a bit of desperation to me…
His last win came on ground described as very soft in Deauville, then was 2nd in the Cammidge on soft, and then the Clipper on good, though winning time that day suggested it was a bit easier (indeed the victor Magical Memory tends to like it soft). Granted the July Cup was fast ground when second to Limato, but was well beaten in 2nd. He has since finished a creditable 3rd on soft in the Sprint Cup at Haydock…this all suggests softer ground is preferable to me. I can’t see how you say ground was too soft recently, was favourite for the Curragh when it should have suited. They have reached for the visor which suggests a bit of desperation to me…
What is Seudois’s best form Joliff?
Beaten 1 length by Mobsta (a horse I rate a 2000/1 chance today) in the Cammidge? On Soft.
Beaten 1/2 length by Magical Memory in the Clipper? On Good.
Beaten 4 1/4 lengths by Quiet Reflection in the Sprint Cup, with Mehronissa only beaten 1/2 length and Mr Lupton 1/2 length further back? On Soft.
Beaten 2 lengths by Limato with Quiet Reflection a head away in 3rd and Kings Stand winner Profitable 1 1/4 behind her in the July Cup? On Good-firm.I’d say beaten 2 lengths by Limato with Quiet Reflection and Profitable behind is his best form by at least 8 lbs.
Yes, I’d like him to have run better – even considering the ground – last time, but we are talking bout a 20+/1 shot.Along with a possible pace advantage today worth a bet imo
Value Is EverythingYou’re basing the fact he likes fast ground on one race? Either way, he needs a career best and as a 6 year old, that’s unlikely…20/1 is a fair reflection of his chances today i FEEL.
I can’t bet on this race, I am uninspired this year.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
You’re basing the fact he likes fast ground on one race? Either way, he needs a career best and as a 6 year old, that’s unlikely…20/1 is a fair reflection of his chances today i FEEL.
I said better on a “sound surface”. Sound means between firm and good going.
So no, am not judging it on one race.
He was also only beaten half a length in last year’s Jubilee on Good going, when on his upward trend.
No, he doesn’t “need a career best”. He’s one of the few prominent runners. Of all the prominent runners he has the best form. So if having the run of the race – with those with better form held up and not suited by pace – it can make more than 2 lengths difference.
Chances are someting will make a good pace, but there is a fair possibility of a less than truly run race given all runners run style.
Value Is EverythingGreat shout there, GT. OK didn’t win but very game run for a horse that went off at 38.00 BSP – traded 2.50 in running (1.10 place in running). It’s all about spotting value. I am sure your point is that if you backed 40 such horses at 40/1 that you believe should be 20/1 then in the long run with the expected 2 winners then you would be 100% ROI. Top man. You got to bring back your tipping thread and forget your detractors.
THE TIN MAN 8/1
At last bag that group one over this CD when he won champions sprint it look like he start of at York before coming here.And think there is more progress in him this year.
Well done Darren, The Tin Man never wins for me, so I thought I would give you a chance by not backing him.
Limato is another who seems to save his worst for when I am on.
Well done The Tin Man fans, this race just never caught my imagination this year at all.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Another cracking race fought out at the finish between 3 very class racehorses. I’d fancy Limato to gain revenge at Newmarket, in fact I’ve backed him each-way at 7s.
The stewards enquiry is ridiculous – the best horse won on the day and well done his supporters.
Great shout there, GT. OK didn’t win but very game run for a horse that went off at 38.00 BSP – traded 2.50 in running (1.10 place in running). It’s all about spotting value. I am sure your point is that if you backed 40 such horses at 40/1 that you believe should be 20/1 then in the long run with the expected 2 winners then you would be 100% ROI. Top man. You got to bring back your tipping thread and forget your detractors.
Thanks Mtoto.
Wish I’d laid it in running!
Unfortunately, Kachy and Suedois took each other on too early, having nothing left when the hold up horses came at them. Suedois doing best of the prominent runers.I wouldn’t say Joliff is a “detractor”, just a difference of opinion on this horse. I’ll have a think about the tipping thread. Got my mojo back this week.
Well done to all the Tin Men.
Value Is EverythingAnother cracking race fought out at the finish between 3 very class racehorses. I’d fancy Limato to gain revenge at Newmarket, in fact I’ve backed him each-way at 7s.
The stewards enquiry is ridiculous – the best horse won on the day and well done his supporters.
I think that was the most half-hearted and pointless enquiry I have ever seen. The jockey’s didn’t have to call upon their Oscar winning acting skills today.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Another cracking race fought out at the finish between 3 very class racehorses. I’d fancy Limato to gain revenge at Newmarket, in fact I’ve backed him each-way at 7s.
The stewards enquiry is ridiculous – the best horse won on the day and well done his supporters.
I think that was the most half-hearted and pointless enquiry I have ever seen. The jockey’s didn’t have to call upon their Oscar winning acting skills today.
Suppose they had to do it, but Ryan knew his fate and knows if he makes little of it then jockeys responsible will get less of a ban or none atall… And they’ll reciprocate in another enquirey.
Surprising they held an enquirey here and not in the Gold Cup.
Value Is EverythingWell done Ginger and cracking ante post Darren at 8/1
I would have loved Librisa Breeze to have found some room earlier,
I know he has to be held up, but he had nowhere to go until it
was too late. He came flying through for 4th. I’m not saying he
would have won, but he’d have been in the mix.
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