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Another day another guess, but somehow I like this horse.
The favourites don’t convince me and this race just looks wide open. He might be one of the more progressive in the field and the way he was staying on at Newbury makes me think he can turn it around with the Gosden horse.
I’ve taken 7-1
I like him too; how do you think he’ll get on with the ground? I’m inclined towards Simple Verse.
No idea how he’ll get on with the ground but trainer thinks it might be too soft for him, then again earlier in the week he was saying he could do with a bit of rain because it was too quick for him at newbury. So too quick at Newbury and too soft at York.
Well in fact I don’t think the ground at York is that bad anyway. Unless there’s much rain between now and race time I don’t see him having a problem. Bigger problem as always is whether he’s actually good enough but none of the others seem in anyway progressive.
Looking at the times at York today for example the Hambleton was slightly faster than average; which might suggest ground that’s more good than good to soft.
Of course there is rain in the forecast so if it does go off soft ground maybe Crimean Tartar might struggle to get home or even get withdrawn
Interesting contest. I backed Crimean Tatar in the John Porter but was terribly disappointed with the way he performed. Yes he should come on for the run and yes he did finish off strongly, but it was a discouraging effort – first off the bridle and looking less than keen throughout. Hugo Agogo’s horses have been improving from their first runs but he’ll need to!
Muggy options Simple Verse and Clever Cookie are the ones I’d be out to lay if I was trading the race. With Charlie Appleby going so well I’m tempted by Endless Time – she’ll be very fit first time, should handle the ground and has recent form to beat all bar Dartmouth.
As for Dartmouth, he’s the best horse in the race and always looked likely to enjoy 1m 6f. The vibes have been uneasy though, some guff about a change of work rider supposedly sparking him. At his best, Dartmouth would make the whole thread look silly, with even his luckless defeat when giving weight to the mighty Algometer an outstanding piece of form. You’ve got to wonder why he’s here though. Stoute insists that Dartmouth will NOT be converted into a ‘Cup’ horse and has a good future at 1m 4f.
Muntahaa‘s chance is all in the price now – you’d be disappointed if he could beat Endless Time or Dartmouth but fitness and wellbeing could count for plenty here.
I’m playing two in this: Endless Time (11/2) and Marmelo (10/1).
Endless Time, unlike Simple Verse, gets the mare’s allowance and comes into the race off two runner-up finishes in French Group 1’s, the latest being against Varizabad. She’s shown she can handle give, the trip and the stable is going very well.
Marmelo is quite unexposed and has race fitness having won a decent race out in France just 19 days ago. The jockey booking excites me and the horse ran away like a locomotive on soft ground at Doncaster last year.
Given Dartmouth has drifted to 4/1 it seemed a good opportunity just for a saver as well mind.
Interesting contest. I backed Crimean Tatar in the John Porter but was terribly disappointed with the way he performed. Yes he should come on for the run and yes he did finish off strongly, but it was a discouraging effort – first off the bridle and looking less than keen throughout. Hugo Agogo’s horses have been improving from their first runs but he’ll need to!
Muggy options Simple Verse and Clever Cookie are the ones I’d be out to lay if I was trading the race. With Charlie Appleby going so well I’m tempted by Endless Time – she’ll be very fit first time, should handle the ground and has recent form to beat all bar Dartmouth.
As for Dartmouth, he’s the best horse in the race and always looked likely to enjoy 1m 6f. The vibes have been uneasy though, some guff about a change of work rider supposedly sparking him. At his best, Dartmouth would make the whole thread look silly, with even his luckless defeat when giving weight to the mighty Algometer an outstanding piece of form. You’ve got to wonder why he’s here though. Stoute insists that Dartmouth will NOT be converted into a ‘Cup’ horse and has a good future at 1m 4f.
Muntahaa‘s chance is all in the price now – you’d be disappointed if he could beat Endless Time or Dartmouth but fitness and wellbeing could count for plenty here.
It was a step up in class for him and seems a gross exaggeration to be terribly disappointed, you must have very high expectations
I’m playing two in this: Endless Time (11/2) and Marmelo (10/1).
Endless Time, unlike Simple Verse, gets the mare’s allowance and comes into the race off two runner-up finishes in French Group 1’s, the latest being against Varizabad. She’s shown she can handle give, the trip and the stable is going very well.
Marmelo is quite unexposed and has race fitness having won a decent race out in France just 19 days ago. The jockey booking excites me and the horse ran away like a locomotive on soft ground at Doncaster last year.
Given Dartmouth has drifted to 4/1 it seemed a good opportunity just for a saver as well mind.
Btw this is a controversial topic but I’ve always been unconvinced with “savers”
“savers” seem to me to be “losers” bets ensuring that when you do lose you lose even more
I mean I could understand that possibly in some race where you could easily pare the field down, but surely objectively speaking looking at this field anything could win it
and surely if you find a good bet, then why would you need a “saver”?
Yes, that’s a fair topic to bring up Judge and I’ll admit to have had a ‘saver’ on something in the past that’s won and kicked myself for not just backing the horse.
In this case, I had it down to three (Dartmouth, Endless Time and Marmalo). Considering I felt they all had good chances in my book I decided to back the bigger priced two but when I saw Dartmouth had hit 4/1 with PaddyPower I thought for the sake of a small stake I could back the horse and if he wins break even whereas if I didn’t and he won I’d be a bit miffed. Admittedly if none of them win (and believe me I know that’s probably very likely!) then I’ve increased my losses but not by much and in the long run I’ve done better by having savers in my punting history – the most recent of which was having such a bet on the Victoria Cup winner last week. At 9/2 Fastnet Tempest didn’t appeal much but likewise I’d have been gutted if he won as he was the obvious choice so I had a bet on him for the ‘just in case’ scenario. I also had a similar bet on Un Temps Pour Tous at Cheltenham with the mindset of ‘just in case he could defy top weight and win the race again.’
Sorry if a waffled on there mate and you’re welcome to bash me if that seems a dreadful policy.
High Jinx will probably go and win at 40/1 now…
I just feel like rather than going in and having what might be percieved a value bet, it just feels like when you start doing bets like savers that you are trying to bully the market and win by force rather than trying to do an objectively good bet. At the risk of repeating myself, if the bet was good in the first place, why would you need a saver?
To give you an example I’ve lost a lot of money on golf over the past few months, now if I’d just gone and backed one player per tournament then those losses would have been limited greatly.
You say you’ve done better traditionally by adding savers, but if that is true then surely you’d have been better off just eliminating your original bet and just betting the saver, or am I missing something?
Having saver bets seem to be universally accepted on these forums and I don’t really get why. It seems to me to be more promoting a loser mentality. I think most punters would become much more successful if they could just have one bet, and if it loses walk away. Not easy to do.
I did have very high expectations, Judgey. Thought there was an outside chance that the Tatar could become a G1 horse!
The disappointing thing for me was the way he went about it that day – never really travelling and just staying on when the race was over. I know that looks encouraging in the context of the Yorkshire Cup, but I thought there were more negatives than positives. Happy to be proven wrong though, previously looked like a potential star.
I was in the disappointed camp also. The way he quickened up after showing a tonne of inexperience over 12f at Kempton in his listed victory was very encouraging for the future. He beat Chemical Charge and on progression I though he would be ahead of him again at Newbury, which was not the case.
A member then alerted me to the fact this horse has had knee problems (apologies, can’t remember who) and it just doesn’t sit right with me to back him today with the softest ground he’s encountered, the step up in 2 furlongs and his last performance not that encouraging. I hope he runs well, I like this one.
Endless Time , for me, but, this is York, and if she goes off favourite, I’m doomed
She can get the distances, she seems to be able for the soft ground, she will carry less weight than Simple Verse, he has ran in top company for most of last season.
I would have thought if you’ve had knee problems softer ground would be a positive
my main concern with this horse is will others outstay him in the gluey ground
I did Dartmouth at 4/1.
There is still scope for Stoute to wring improvement from him at 5YO and he’s one of the few I would see as sure to go close today.
I think combination of trip and track should suit and his win from Highland Reel at Royal Ascot in the Hardwicke is the best piece of form here. 2/2 at this sort of trip, I think he will be a tough nut to crack with the best jockey on board.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’m not really a flat punter but I’ll have a go with Endless Time, in what looks
like a very open race bar High Jinx (kiss of death). She caught the eye when she
won the Lancashire Oaks last year, and looked like any further would be right up
her street. She was pegged back in her first of 2 French Group 1s over 12f, but
ran on well. Her last outing was over in France, she was again caught at the death,
but that was over 1m 7 1/2F. I hope I’m right that 1m 6f is her optimum distance
and the 5/1 looks worth taking.
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