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Don’t know where you got the impression that I consider my opinion more relevant than those watching the horses everyday (don’t recall ever saying that in any of my posts). Horses just have a way of making all of us (even those we look to as being in the know) look foolish from time to time.
All I am saying is I don’t think this ‘gamble’ is driven by the trainer (never known as a hype trainer of any sort even with his champions racehorses, he is old school and that isn’t the done thing) and just because these exact same work watching people are bigging the horse’s work up doesn’t automatically mean they will be proved right. You only have to look back at last year as a prime example of that kind of thinking going pear shaped and people getting their fingers burnt. If you are on at a price then I wish you all the very best and hope that you are able to collect.
It is not an arrogant opinion in my view just my opinion, its no better and no worse than anyone elses and we are free to agree or disagree….so its all good.
Don’t know where you got the impression that I consider my opinion more relevant than those watching the horses everyday (don’t recall ever saying that in any of my posts). Horses just have a way of making all of us (even those we look to as being in the know) look foolish from time to time.
All I am saying is I don’t think this ‘gamble’ is driven by the trainer (never known as a hype trainer of any sort even with his champions racehorses, he is old school and that isn’t the done thing) and just because these exact same work watching people are bigging the horse’s work up doesn’t automatically mean they will be proved right. You only have to look back at last year as a prime example of that kind of thinking going pear shaped and people getting their fingers burnt. If you are on at a price then I wish you all the very best and hope that you are able to collect.
It is not an arrogant opinion in my view just my opinion, its no better and no worse than anyone elses and we are free to agree or disagree….so its all good.
Ok no worries mate
Just my opinion but if you watch Okool’s second run last year against Eminent and even his first race against Glencadam Glory ( who led the field ) you can make a case that he could possibly be some way ahead of his mark of 81. And that is without the Stoute horse running.
I would be quite sure that Mr. Burrows cannot believe his luck on getting that mark, and will exploit it in due course.
Okool has had four starts now. The official handicapper has him static at 81.
If we look on Racing Post Ratings. Okool got 84 for his debut run behind Glencadam Glory. They had him running below that next time, on 77, when 6th to Eminent. The Racing Post rater was then in agreement with the official handicapper that Okool had run to 81 behind Crystal Ocean but they actually gave him just 79 for winning the modest looking maiden he did next time out.
Based on the Racing Post figures, Okool’s best start is still his effort behind Glencadam Glory on his debut. There is nothing to suggest the horse has a progressive profile, he just seems pretty steady at around about the low 80’s in terms of ability.
Mick Fitzgerald trotted out the now familiar mantra that Okool franked Crystal Ocean’s form. That’s just typical, lazy, reporting from a man who knows little about Flat Racing.
I won’t be rushing to back Okool in a handicap. It looks a classic honeytrap in the making.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Actually found an interesting take on that gamble: https://medium.com/@tony_calvin/crystal-ocean-what-you-havent-read-or-heard-on-the-derby-gamble-4d5f142909ba
Of course if he was actually punted then it’s entirely possible that it was by someone not connected to the yard, could just be a big player taking a position.
Stoute is on record as saying he doesn’t think he’s a derby horse
picture gets ever murkier
Think Benbatl will relish the test tomorrow. Godolphin fancy him for the Derby if I remember rightly from a while back
Actually found an interesting take on that gamble: https://medium.com/@tony_calvin/crystal-ocean-what-you-havent-read-or-heard-on-the-derby-gamble-4d5f142909ba
Of course if he was actually punted then it’s entirely possible that it was by someone not connected to the yard, could just be a big player taking a position.
Stoute is on record as saying he doesn’t think he’s a derby horse
picture gets ever murkier
Just from my experience with this horse. I was thinking of putting a £3 bet on last Monday at 70.0 as a bit of cover for my main Derby bets. The first bet was placed was £6 at 38.0 on Wednesday. By that time approx 2K had been placed on the horse to win on the exchanges
As soon as the betting opened for the Dante he was cut within an hour from 16’s to 6’s but the Bookies were still 33’s everywhere for the Derby after Okool won. Like the guy said, by the time Sunday afternoon came round he was a lot shorter for both races.
No idea how much the Bookies will actually lay on an ante post bet 33’s because i dont bet big. I would presume that if they were connected to the yard, they would get a fair few pounds on for a race like the Derby.
Maybe someone else could shed some light on it, is it possible to put £5000 on a 33/1 shot ante post ?
Actually found an interesting take on that gamble: https://medium.com/@tony_calvin/crystal-ocean-what-you-havent-read-or-heard-on-the-derby-gamble-4d5f142909ba
Of course if he was actually punted then it’s entirely possible that it was by someone not connected to the yard, could just be a big player taking a position.
Stoute is on record as saying he doesn’t think he’s a derby horse
picture gets ever murkier
Just from my experience with this horse. I was thinking of putting a £3 bet on last Monday at 70.0 as a bit of cover for my main Derby bets. The first bet was placed was £6 at 38.0 on Wednesday. By that time approx 2K had been placed on the horse to win on the exchanges
As soon as the betting opened for the Dante he was cut within an hour from 16’s to 6’s but the Bookies were still 33’s everywhere for the Derby after Okool won. Like the guy said, by the time Sunday afternoon came round he was a lot shorter for both races.
No idea how much the Bookies will actually lay on an ante post bet 33’s because i dont bet big. I would presume that if they were connected to the yard, they would get a fair few pounds on for a race like the Derby.
Maybe someone else could shed some light on it, is it possible to put £5000 on a 33/1 shot ante post ?
Probably not, you’d have to spread it around. I mean you’re talking about winning over 150k, which is a lot of money, even for bookies.
In my experience if you try and put on a bet which will win you a large amount of money, and I’m talking about online betting here, the “computer” will recalibrate your bet and offer you a much smaller one. I mean just to give you an example I tried to put about a tenner on Tiger Woods for the British Open earlier in the year and they wouldn’t even allow that, as it would have cost them the huge amount of £1,000 or something. So they recalculate the bet and I was allowed to put £2 on.
Even if it’s a losing account with them, they want to avoid taking a big hit. They know they’ll grind you down over time.
I mean in shops now they have to check if you even put as much as £100 on. So if I wanted to put £5k on a 33-1 shot I’d probably have to go around several shops, but as I couldn’t do that instantaneously, I’d have to employ a team of people to put the bets on as otherwise the price will be cut as I go along, if that makes any sense.
Cracksman out. Very disappointing.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Cracksman out. Very disappointing.
Will he run in the derby now?
Cracksman out. Very disappointing.
Very and won’t wise us up, the eventual winner. Frankel’s hopes are all on Swiss Storm now.
Best Wishes
SilkWith no Cracksman I’ve taken a chance on Exemplar today. I think he could well be suited by the conditions and with the prospect of him having improved from 2 to 3 and Moore in the saddle I like him at the prices.
Cracksman out. Very disappointing.
Will he run in the derby now?
Gosden mentioned he would take him to Breakfast with the Stars so I would imagine he is still on course – he also said that he has made a lot of progress from his first run and is in very good form.
For me it was the right decision to pull him as that ground will start to dry and get sticky/holding and will ride tougher than yesterday when by all accounts it was proper soft but they were getting through it no problem.
Could be a blessing in disguise to miss the race under those conditions but at least he has had a run this season and over the course which is worth a lot and it is not like he is going into the Derby off the back of two easy races so he is much more street wise than a normal twice raced Derby contender would be.
Crystal Ocean is a “Man the lifeboats” job this morning. From 3/1 and with favourite Cracksman a non-runner, Stoute’s horse is out to 7/1.
Benbatl is fav now but too short to my eyes at 7/2, Rekindling is 4/1 next best.
I thought Permian looked a strong stayer last time and I had a bit on him at 14/1, in the hope he can run the guts out of the rest of them.
Permian 14/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Can’t see Cracksman being pulled out of the main trial for the derby as a positive. Maybe he’ll still win at Epsom but he’s not for me now.
Reckon Crystal Ocean the one to be with today; thought that even before Cracksman got pulled out.
Reckon Crystal Ocean the one to be with today; thought that even before Cracksman got pulled out.
They can’t give him away in the betting. He was 3/1 when Cracksman was 11/4. With Cracksman now out, Crystal Ocean is 7/1. That’s an incredible drift.
Benbatl and Rekindling are the ones for money.
In the Derby itself, Cracksman is out to 10/1 and I have little confidence in him now. Crystal Ocean is out to 20/1 with Paddy Power. The only firm with the balls to offer it. The others are laughable, with testicles the size of peas.
How can Crystal Ocean be 10/1 for the Derby, when he is 7/1 for the Dante? That’s bull-plop.
Surely, if you fancy Crystal Ocean for the Derby, the only bet is the 33/1 to win today and at Epsom. SkyBet only offer 18/1 for that bet and that’s an effing disgrace when you can get 20/1 with Paddy Power for the Derby only.
Shameful stuff.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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