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Stamina wouldn’t be my worry for Swiss Storm, he was a bull of a horse at two and with Elsie stating he just hadn’t come to hand quick enough to make the guineas I would worry that he will badly need his first run of the season – bound to come on a ton for it so a watching brief this time.
Only two of the runners have made the running previously (Swiss Storm & Wolf Country) but I would be surprised if those tactics are used first time out on Swiss Storm so hopefully Wolf Country will make it a decent pace so we get a definitive result, personally think the quicker they go the better for Cracksman and that big stride of his.
I don’t really understand this gamble on Crystal Ocean either as I seem to remember just a year ago we had a similar situation with a Stoute horse called Ulysses who was impressive in a Newbury maiden a month or so before the Derby only to cut little to no ice at Epsom on the big day. The form of his win my have been franked by Okool (interestingly the horse that finished second to Okool in that race Cheif Craftsman also ran in Crystal Ocean’s race and was beaten some 8L further by Okool) but also bear in mind those races were both Class 5 maidens.
There is no way anyone can argue that Okool has franked Crystal Ocean’s form.
Okool was rated 81 and for winning his maiden, he was left on the same 81 mark by the official handicapper.
The maiden Okool won was identical to the one where he was second to Crystal Ocean. Same course, same distance, same prize money right down to the penny. Okool went in as favourite, he had the highest RPR and he was expected to win. In winning, he showed the exact same form as he had done the previous time. All it told us, was what we knew from the obvious logic, which was/is that, if Crystal Ocean had not run in the first maiden, Okool would have won it.
Crystal Ocean beat an 81 rated maiden, he’s now beaten an 81 rated winner, who would have already been an 81 rated winner if Crystal Ocean had not run. Crystal Ocean can beat an 81 rated horse cosily, we already knew that, how the hell can his chances have been improved?
It’s all about how much improvement Crystal Ocean can make, and he needs to find at least a stone for the Dante and hope Cracksman recedes slightly, rather than making the logical improvement that the Timeform 108P figure strongly suggests he is capable of.
At the odds Cracksman has a lot less to find than the maiden winner.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I don’t think Crystal Ocean’s form is the reason he’s being punted, as I said earlier it’s more likely to be what he’s showing at home and what the trainer thinks of him. Also the horses he’s related to. A typical “Dark” horse. As others have said they missed with Ulysesses, but that doesn’t mean they’ll miss with this one
The term working well at home is so misleading and overused as these gallops are specifically tailor made to make the better thought of horse look good/gain confidence and Stoute is far too wise and long in the tooth to ever be over effusive about anything his horses do at home, think this is a case of someone reading far too much into a comment and running with and then it snowballing from there.
Gosden confirmed Shutter Speed runs but that he would have another decision to make tomorrow re Cracksman running
The term working well at home is so misleading and overused as these gallops are specifically tailor made to make the better thought of horse look good/gain confidence and Stoute is far too wise and long in the tooth to ever be over effusive about anything his horses do at home, think this is a case of someone reading far too much into a comment and running with and then it snowballing from there.
Can’t agree with that I’m afraid. You might as well say that those watching the horse at home and seeing him in his day to day work have no advantage to the punter sitting at home.
The term working well at home is so misleading and overused as these gallops are specifically tailor made to make the better thought of horse look good/gain confidence and Stoute is far too wise and long in the tooth to ever be over effusive about anything his horses do at home, think this is a case of someone reading far too much into a comment and running with and then it snowballing from there.
Can’t agree with that I’m afraid. You might as well say that those watching the horse at home and seeing him in his day to day work have no advantage to the punter sitting at home.
Always remember the Sir Henry trained Desert Sun who won a 2 yr old 7F Doncaster maiden by 6L and in the lead up to 2000g all we heard from those in the know was that he was tearing up the gallops like he was the second coming – even after he got turned over by Marju in the Craven the watchers were hailing his work on the gallops, finished down the field in 2000g and only won one other race after.
All I am saying is that you have to take these comment with a pinch of salt because it doesn’t matter what they do on the gallops if they can’t replicate it on the course and this horse still has it to prove.
Yes but this horse is related to some very good horses so it would be logical for him to be one as well
whether that’s good enough tomorrow who knows but the money indicates that it might
I also think the fact that he’s by sea the stars in his favour- he won the derby himself and the early signs are that his progeny take very well to the course- winning the oaks with taghrooda and harzand winning the derby. I think he might even have a slight edge over the staying types as his progeny seem to have his ability to lay up with the pace which is ideal at Epsom
Yes but this horse is related to some very good horses so it would be logical for him to be one as well
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Tell that to Frankel and Noble Misson’s full brother Proconsul who was unplaced in two starts as a 3 yr old last year and then shipped straight off to stud this year
Yes but this horse is related to some very good horses so it would be logical for him to be one as well
Tell that to Frankel and Noble Misson’s full brother Proconsul who was unplaced in two starts as a 3 yr old last year and then shipped straight off to stud this year
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Let’s put it another way then. Let’s imagine you own this horse. You’re able to watch his gallops, he’s burning them up, Michael Stoute comes over to, a multiple derby winning trainer and says I really think he’s come on from two to three. I quietly fancy it for the Derby.
What you going to do, turn around and say, I don’t think I’ll be punting it Mike as the form with Okool isn’t as good as it looks, and some of these morning glories have disappointed before? Pull the other one
Think there could be a good chance Cracksman gets pulled tomorrow – at least with today it is virgin ground and it looks like the horses are getting through it but now it has been opened up, every drop of rain that falls will get into the ground even more and I think soft or even heavy could appear in the description.
The fact that it was good to firm last week is also misleading as that would have been well watered ground thus ensuring the water table is quite high so any rain changes the going very quickly – will be interesting to see how many stand their ground.
These trials have been farcical, even before the weather struck.
The Musidora was headed by a horse with no intentions of going for the Oaks. The Dante saw a favourite on the drift, with negative talk all week from connections.
Now there is talk of Cracksman coming out tomorrow and the whole situation is a fiasco.
I am finding myself getting increasingly pissed of by the constant negativity in certain stables. Just STFU and get on with it for Christ’s sake.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I really do feel that Reklindling is value for better than his winning distance in the Ballysax and that is as good a bit of form as anything brought into the Dante. The ground shouldn’t be a worry, the course will suit and this son of High Chaparral has a decent turn of foot to use against some of his more one-dimensional rivals.
It’s looking like a really good race.
Who is going to want their horse to have a tough race on soft ground just 16 days before the big day?
Yes but this horse is related to some very good horses so it would be logical for him to be one as well
Tell that to Frankel and Noble Misson’s full brother Proconsul who was unplaced in two starts as a 3 yr old last year and then shipped straight off to stud this year
Let’s put it another way then. Let’s imagine you own this horse. You’re able to watch his gallops, he’s burning them up, Michael Stoute comes over to, a multiple derby winning trainer and says I really think he’s come on from two to three. I quietly fancy it for the Derby.
What you going to do, turn around and say, I don’t think I’ll be punting it Mike as the form with Okool isn’t as good as it looks, and some of these morning glories have disappointed before? Pull the other one
[/quote]First off you know full well that Stoutey is highly unlikely to say to any owner (let alone a very experienced one in Sir Evelyn De Rothschild) that he quietly fancies their twice raced class 5 maiden winner for the Derby.
Plus if it were burning up the gallops I would want to know who his work companion(s) are first, if I knew he was working with a Listed or Group class horse (instead of another backward maiden or unraced 3 yr old) in the mornings then I would be very encouraged but also I would try to keep things in perspective – would I make some enquiries about his price absolutely but the shift in price for both races based on morning gallops and a nice maiden win says more about the overall confusion in the Derby market than the fact he is the next big star in waiting.
I just believe in a little perspective thats all.
Stoute has seen many good horses go through his hands so he must be capable of spotting one by now. The fact that it’s only won a class five maiden isn’t as relevant as the fact that he’s more capable than most of judging whether the horse is up to Derby standard or not. O’Brien is similar. Camelot had done very little before his racing post win but “they knew” and the money was down, based on what he was doing at Ballydoyle.
Whether he has tipped off the owner or not I have no idea, I was just using that as an example. Possibly it’s the stablehands getting involved, whispers going about and “the faces” getting involved, I have no idea, although clearly this is something of a gambling stable because they also punted one last year.
It’s a gamble and that’s what this game is, to me you say you are keeping a sense of perspective but some of your comments come across as very negative, it doesn’t seem to me a sense of perspective if somehow you consider your opinion to me more relevant than someone watching the horse everyday, to me that’s not a sense of perspective it’s just arrogance.
Just my opinion but if you watch Okool’s second run last year against Eminent and even his first race against Glencadam Glory ( who led the field ) you can make a case that he could possibly be some way ahead of his mark of 81. And that is without the Stoute horse running.
I would be quite sure that Mr. Burrows cannot believe his luck on getting that mark, and will exploit it in due course.
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