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Big G makes a strong case for Capri earlier in the thread and I see the money has come for him
Personally the way Winter hosed up in the 1000 I’d ignore this gamble at your peril, as you’d have to think it’s to some extent stable generated.
I think if it’s good ground I don’t think Capri can win but if it’s riding soft then who knows… although another grey eminent I think would relish soft ground even more… does anyone know who is likely to ride the stable second string? Heffernan?
It doesn’t seem like there’s any chance of the ground coming up soft though, so I can’t see the justification behind the Capri gamble. Heffernan will be on the second string but there’s no guarantee that will be Capri.
There’s no doubting that Capri would handle soft ground without any difficulty, but when I put
him up it wasn’t because I thought it would come up very soft, it was because I thought he was
better than some of his results suggest and I thought he would be a better horse over 12f. If
it did stay on the soft side it certainly wouldn’t inconvenience him, whereas it would some of
his rivals, but I don’t think that he is soft ground dependent. He ran a sound race last time out
at Leopardstown on good to firm, beaten in third by his 2 O’Brien stable mates, with a cigarette
paper between the 3 of them. I think had he had the extra 2 furlongs he would have won. I think
a lot more was expected of this horse early in his career, which he maybe hasn’t lived up to, but
I think he still has the ability, and over the right distance for him I think he has a live chance
of taking this.It’ll be interesting to see how the Ballydoyle rides get split up amongst their jockeys. Cliffs of Moher is clearly going to be ridden by Moore, but after that I couldn’t say how they rank Capri, Venice Beach and Douglas MacArthur.
After Ryan on CoM, I would say Emmet will ride DougieMac…as he seems to have built a decent understanding of the horse, if DMc gets an upgrade to Heffernan for example that would be very significant but I doubt he will.
Then it will be between Seamie & Donnacha for Venice Beach and Capri. Frankly I am not sure what the significance of the choice would be. Doesn’t seem to be much between them in seniority these days. Maybe Seamus just favoured but very marginal.Big G makes a strong case for Capri earlier in the thread and I see the money has come for him
Personally the way Winter hosed up in the 1000 I’d ignore this gamble at your peril, as you’d have to think it’s to some extent stable generated.
I think if it’s good ground I don’t think Capri can win but if it’s riding soft then who knows… although another grey eminent I think would relish soft ground even more… does anyone know who is likely to ride the stable second string? Heffernan?
It doesn’t seem like there’s any chance of the ground coming up soft though, so I can’t see the justification behind the Capri gamble.
This “gamble” on Capri is legalised theft. Please don’t fall for it. He’s a no-hoper. You’re backing a 40/1 shot at 9/1.
Capri was actually my first bet for the race. I had a tiny bet at 50/1.
I have never really believed he will win it and I don’t see it now. He’s just too slow.
I’ll have a problem if he wins, because I used the ticket to light the candles at the Christmas Dinner table. It seemed a more economical option than wasting good money on a match.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think one of the problems when you go on these forums is you tend to overthink it a lot and end up backing a lot of runners, or “savers”
because people who go on forums tend to over analyse more than the usual punter.
as this derby is more wide open than most it’s tempting to back half the field. however so far I’ve resisted added to my inital bet on eminent and not got plunged into the usual saver bets. (i do have a double on enable/cracksman as well)
It seems to me there’s no obvious reason why O’Brien and Godolphin aren’t just running their usual also rans. The fact they are running so many suggests as others have said that they don’t have anything special.
Of course if Martyn Meade had five derby horses he’d probably also run five, however it does seem like there is no star in the coolmore or godolphin ranks.
was very tempted to back venice beach today and when I went for a run I spotted a van with “capri” written on the side of it which I almost took to be an omen, clearly I’m losing it
Never faltered from my original choice either judge even though I felt tempted to add Cracksman as I really want to see a Frankel colt win this and I love the look of Cliffs Of Moher it has to be EMINENT.
For an each way bet at 25/1 and going on the impressive manner he won his Maiden last year it has to be Godolphin’s
BENBATL and those are my 2 choices..lots of luck involved in running, anything can happen..Be lucky
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I just take the view Jac that rather than backing 3 or 4 in a race you’re betting off backing one and if it loses, just move the hell on. If Eminent doesn’t stay, or isn’t good enough, then I’ll just throw my hands up and move on to the next race.
The worst thing you can do is end up backing so many that the gambling losses really rack up. Looking at some of the posts on here and other forums, it seems like some of the posters have backed half the field….
Overanalysing it means you’re more likely to change your mind and cover every bloody horse.
Coolmore ran five in Australia’s year, and they had the first and second home.
The triumvirate of Magnier, Tabor and Smith like to have a runner in their own colours, but not only that, Flaxman Stables co-own Venice Beach, Jooste co-owns Cliffs of Moher and Douglas MacArthur (the latter runs in his colours), and Annamarie O’Brien co-owns The Anvil. Only two horses have the same owners/colours, Capri and Wings of Eagles.Coolmore ran five in Australia’s year, and they had the first and second home.
The triumvirate of Magnier, Tabor and Smith like to have a runner in their own colours, but not only that, Flaxman Stables co-own Venice Beach, Jooste co-owns Cliffs of Moher and Douglas MacArthur (the latter runs in his colours), and Annamarie O’Brien co-owns The Anvil. Only two horses have the same owners/colours, Capri and Wings of Eagles.Yes but 11-8 was the returning price on Australia
most of their horses that have started at longer prices, and they’ve had a huge number running for them over the last few years which have been beaten.
As I said the other day, they’ve had over 40 runners since 2005 and only three of those have won. If you’d have backed every runner, you’d be -£35 to a level stake. Backing O’Brien’s in the derby, is in my view a long term losing strategy.
Coolmore ran five in Australia’s year, and they had the first and second home.
The triumvirate of Magnier, Tabor and Smith like to have a runner in their own colours, but not only that, Flaxman Stables co-own Venice Beach, Jooste co-owns Cliffs of Moher and Douglas MacArthur (the latter runs in his colours), and Annamarie O’Brien co-owns The Anvil. Only two horses have the same owners/colours, Capri and Wings of Eagles.Yes but 11-8 was the returning price on Australia
most of their horses that have started at longer prices, and they’ve had a huge number running for them over the last few years which have been beaten.
As I said the other day, they’ve had over 40 runners since 2005 and only three of those have won. If you’d have backed every runner, you’d be -£35 to a level stake. Backing O’Brien’s in the derby, is in my view a long term losing strategy.
That may be so Judge but I don’t understand how that applies to what people are discussing here. I don’t think anybody on here is ever going to back every O’Brien horse in this years race, or for every future Derby beyond. Just because backing every single Ballydoyle horse over the years has led to negative profit to level stakes, doesn’t mean you should just avoid all their horses either.
As you said yourself over in the Oaks subforum, you should look at every horse individually and assess their chances. What you’re saying is interesting but it just doesn’t have much relevance.With Churchill 99.99% a non runner now and NRNB popping up i’m going for the horse i think has a great chance of winning at a price. I have been wanting to back him for a month now and have just been waiting on Churchill.
For me the only horse that has looked like a G1 horse in the English Trials is Best Solution. He was really impressive winning his trial, in what looked a fast run race. Also i like Capri and Douglas Mcarthur from the Derrinstown with preference for Capri because i think the other is going to be used as a pacemaker to make this a very stiff test of stamina.
Walgeist is the one for me. Certain to appreciate 1 Mile 4 and the only Group 1 winner in the field ( Criterium De Saint-cloud ). In that race he really picked up in the last furlong to go past the field to win comfortably. Second was Best Solution,3 rd Capri and 4th Douglas Mcarthur. Also further behind was Rekindling and Wings of Eagles.
After the race Fabre also entered him in the Irish Derby saying he would be going for that also after the English version.
In his trial this year he was second to Recoletos over 9F who looks a very, very good horse.
It’s always been a bit of an ambition to have a good win on the Derby and i’m up £70 whatever wins in the Derby and Oaks. Decision made Walgeist to win the Derby £70 @ 20’s NRNB
How this horse is sat at 20/1 when some others have not acheived anything like his form is beyond me.
I have a little e/w saver on Waldgeist myself Botchy, it was between himself and Best Solution but price was the deciding factor.
With Waldgeist a non-runner, I’m going to give Best Solution his chance.
Coolmore ran five in Australia’s year, and they had the first and second home.
The triumvirate of Magnier, Tabor and Smith like to have a runner in their own colours, but not only that, Flaxman Stables co-own Venice Beach, Jooste co-owns Cliffs of Moher and Douglas MacArthur (the latter runs in his colours), and Annamarie O’Brien co-owns The Anvil. Only two horses have the same owners/colours, Capri and Wings of Eagles.Yes but 11-8 was the returning price on Australia
most of their horses that have started at longer prices, and they’ve had a huge number running for them over the last few years which have been beaten.
As I said the other day, they’ve had over 40 runners since 2005 and only three of those have won. If you’d have backed every runner, you’d be -£35 to a level stake. Backing O’Brien’s in the derby, is in my view a long term losing strategy.
That may be so Judge but I don’t understand how that applies to what people are discussing here. I don’t think anybody on here is ever going to back every O’Brien horse in this years race, or for every future Derby beyond. Just because backing every single Ballydoyle horse over the years has led to negative profit to level stakes, doesn’t mean you should just avoid all their horses either.
As you said yourself over in the Oaks subforum, you should look at every horse individually and assess their chances. What you’re saying is interesting but it just doesn’t have much relevance.Yes maybe but my general point is O’Brien runs a lot of dross in the race- an awful lot of runners to avoid-how are we supposed to know which ones to back and which ones to avoid?
Bad news for those who backed Diore Lia. BHA have prevented Gina Mangan from riding the horse so all plans scrapped and more details to follow shortly….
I think one of the problems when you go on these forums is you tend to overthink it a lot and end up backing a lot of runners, or “savers”
because people who go on forums tend to over analyse more than the usual punter.
as this derby is more wide open than most it’s tempting to back half the field. however so far I’ve resisted added to my inital bet on eminent and not got plunged into the usual saver bets. (i do have a double on enable/cracksman as well)
It seems to me there’s no obvious reason why O’Brien and Godolphin aren’t just running their usual also rans. The fact they are running so many suggests as others have said that they don’t have anything special.
Of course if Martyn Meade had five derby horses he’d probably also run five, however it does seem like there is no star in the coolmore or godolphin ranks.
was very tempted to back venice beach today and when I went for a run I spotted a van with “capri” written on the side of it which I almost took to be an omen, clearly I’m losing it
Its funny you say that Judge as when I was in Spain last week, I walked past this sign that said Acapulco and I thought the exact thing!!! Im not always the superstitious type but thought it was fate.
The one horse I just don’t get in this is Eminent? If someone offered me the choice of a free £1 bet on Cracksman at 5/1 or a £20 free bet on Eminent at 7/1 I’d take the former…just don’t see it being there at the business end…
I’ve only got Cracksman in an antepost multiple at 8’s and that will do for me…
Derby never been the biggest interest for me betting wise…maybe two winners in about 25 years probably speaks volumes…
If not Cracksman I’d like to see Permian win for the North…I’ll never forget the buzz in my local bookies at the time about Mister Baileys…think all the shop was on and when Weaver sent him for home there was an almighty gulp…just not meant to be!
Might just also have a small each way on Douglas Mcarthur…a horse who last time he won helped me win over a thousand pound! Just love the horses attitude, can’t see him being good enough though, but owes me nothing..
I think one of the problems when you go on these forums is you tend to overthink it a lot and end up backing a lot of runners, or “savers”
because people who go on forums tend to over analyse more than the usual punter.
as this derby is more wide open than most it’s tempting to back half the field. however so far I’ve resisted added to my inital bet on eminent and not got plunged into the usual saver bets. (i do have a double on enable/cracksman as well)
It seems to me there’s no obvious reason why O’Brien and Godolphin aren’t just running their usual also rans. The fact they are running so many suggests as others have said that they don’t have anything special.
Of course if Martyn Meade had five derby horses he’d probably also run five, however it does seem like there is no star in the coolmore or godolphin ranks.
was very tempted to back venice beach today and when I went for a run I spotted a van with “capri” written on the side of it which I almost took to be an omen, clearly I’m losing it
Its funny you say that Judge as when I was in Spain last week, I walked past this sign that said Acapulco and I thought the exact thing!!! Im not always the superstitious type but thought it was fate.
Lol yes you know you’re losing it when that ends up being the deciding factor!
Zamorston said…’The one horse I just don’t get in this is Eminent’?
If I were offered that free £20 bet on Eminent at 7/1 Zam I’d grab it with both hands and run like the wind.
Both Eminent and Permian have won races at Group level, Eminent winning The Craven Stakes and Permian The Dante, Cracksman narrowly beat Permian in the Epsom Derby Trial but that was only a class 2 and Permian improved to win the Dante. Cracksman will need to show that he also has improved quite considerably to win The Derby from only winning a Class 4 and a Class 2 Race.
In the 2000 Guineas Eminent was denied his run at a crucial stage and lost his momentum he was never going anywhere after that, but he was only 3 and a half lengths behind with winner Churchill who won the race in
1m 36.61.
Emininent won his race, The Craven, on the same course, over the same distance on the same going in 1m 35.15 and he was in no mood to stop that day, Jim Crowley had a hard job pulling him up.Permian is improving in leaps and bounds and along with Benbatl I think the pace at the finish will be blistering.
Providing Eminent gets luck in running and is well balanced coming round Tattenham Corner I think he will take all the beating and I’ve been with him since I saw him win his Maiden at Newmarket last year. He takes after his sire, not in looks but in his nature and I don’t think we’ve even seen the best of him yet.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
Jac
As you said yourself over in the Oaks subforum, you should look at every horse individually and assess their chances. What you’re saying is interesting but it just doesn’t have much relevance.
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