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<span class=”d4pbbc-font-color” style=”color: blue”> @darren
Darren said….Trip had a look at a few horses for derby next year can see CRYSTAL KID a Royal Ascot 2018 Winner.
</span>Darren did you mean CRYSTAL KING (Frankel – Crystal Star (Mark Of Esteem) trained by Michael Stoute.
Half brother to Crystal Capella so will get 12f and worth watching if he comes out this season
Good luck with your early bird bets Darren.
Looking forward to Royal Ascot now.Didn’t he have a half brother to Crystal Capella who actually ran well in a derby trial and then didn’t run in an awful derby? Doesn’t hold out much hope for this one I’m afraid.
We have had this argument so many times Steve and I think we just fail to see eye to eye about it you and me! I’ll try to put forward my case one more time:
You can only beat a Guineas runner-up if a Guineas runner-up is in the field. The very nature of the Derby and the time of year it is run means that inevitably you are only going to be running against horses who have only won listed/Group 3 races (i.e. trials) unless they are stepping up from the Guineas. So these horses haven’t yet had the chance to prove themselves in better company. That doesn’t mean they are not up to that class – it just means they haven’t had the chance to prove it. If the race was crammed full of horses that had only ever been good enough to win in listed/Group 3 races and were all fully exposed then it would be fair to point out the “lack of high standard success” but some of these horses were only running for the 2nd, 3rd or 4th time. To say that they aren’t Group 1 standard can only be speculation at this stage. To speculate is absolutely fine – (it’s what we all do everyday when we bet!) and your hunches can win you cash BUT nobody can see with any authority or proof that these are bad horses because they haven’t had the chance to prove it yet. Now of course you could be right about this field and I am not arguing that they are necessarily going to be good – all I’m arguing is that I don’t know that yet and, with all respect, neither can you. You can speculate but you don’t know.
As it stands we had Eminent who was beaten 3 1/2 lengths by Churchill (who I think we all agree is good) and he was beaten 2 lengths by Wings Of Eagles. Not a bad form line. Of course we can argue that the difference in trip was a factor and that Eminent ran better yesterday but, again, we can’t be sure yet!
Last years Derby wasn’t the best but it wasn’t the worst either. Apart from the winner it has thrown up another two Group 1 winners and four other Group 2/3 winners as well as Wings of Desire who was a close runner-up to….Highland Reel in the King George (who I think we can all agree is a proper G1 horse). So not brilliant but not the “bollocks” that you call it.
Anyway I am sure we will have this back and forth over the years. You do your homework very well and make great observations and pick out some lovely winners. I know I always say it but I am only copying my all-time hero, Sir Henry, when I say once more “Time will tell.”
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
<span class=”d4pbbc-font-color” style=”color: blue”> @darren
Darren said….Trip had a look at a few horses for derby next year can see CRYSTAL KID a Royal Ascot 2018 Winner.
</span>Darren did you mean CRYSTAL KING (Frankel – Crystal Star (Mark Of Esteem) trained by Michael Stoute.
Half brother to Crystal Capella so will get 12f and worth watching if he comes out this season
Good luck with your early bird bets Darren. Looking forward to Royal Ascot now.Didn’t he have a half brother to Crystal Capella who actually ran well in a derby trial and then didn’t run in an awful derby? Doesn’t hold out much hope for this one I’m afraid.
Yep that one i meant trip it is And Judge i see horse more a Royal Ascot horse that more down to trainer and owner. i like to seen Crystal Ocean run yesterday but off to Ascot.That why i said Crystal King more like a 2018 Royal Ascot winner
It’s the same flawed logic that states Enable can’t win an Oaks because she has only won a Group 3 as opposed to Rhododendron who has won a Group 1. We now know that the Cheshire Oaks was probably a good race (well the first two were good anyway) and better than G3 standard like the Newbury conditions race won by Shutter Speed was more like a G1 in disguise! Some of those horses that won G3 trials will turn out to be only G3 standard but one or two step up and that is what we have seen this week. At this stage it can only be an (informed) guessing game in which you will get some right (Skiffle) and get some wrong (Enable). The trick is to get more right than wrong!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Gutted with Cliffs Of Moher getting nabbed but that’s racing.
Glencadem Glory stayed on into 9th so I’m hopeful it convinces connections to aim at the Leger which I’m hoping for. He didn’t miss the start this time either.
Bottom Line: That wa my first and last Derby!
And of course it is just an illusion that”high class” races are more predictable, every class 4 handicap at Musselbrough would have been fairer..Bottom Line: That wa my first and last Derby!
And of course it is just an illusion that”high class” races are more predictable, every class 4 handicap at Musselbrough would have been fairer..Don’t be too quickly swayed by recency bias HB. The Derby is more usually a very predictable Group 1 race.
Before Saturday, the last Derby winner who started in double figure odds was in 1998!Having watched the race several times over now,it was clear to see the advantage of how having 6 horses running gave AOB added advantage of getting the outcome he was hoping for. It almost seemed to go along the lines… 2 x horses make the pace (Douglas Macarthur/The Anvil), 2 x horses keep fancied chances close by (Venice Beach/Capri) and 2 x horses trying to win (Cliffs Of Moher/Wings Of Eagles)…it seemed that way anyway.
The blistering pace that was set by the 2 Coolmore horses would have won them The Kings Stand and a horse like BENBATL who couldn’t go the early pace was making ground hand over fist in the closing stages having been plum last most of the way, just like Wings Of Eagles he was making eye catching progress but with no chance of ever reaching the leading 4 at the finish because of the early pace. It was amazing to watch him eating up the ground in the closing stages and you wouldn’t have thought he’d have finished 8th or 9th let alone 5th.
He is the horse to take out of the race but take nothing away from the winner, he was the best on the day. Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...For me, Douglas MacArthur was the horse to take out of the race. He ran the first 5f section (uphill part of the course) in 1.7 secs below standard (equivalent to more than 10L), and still managed to finish just 4.75L off the winner. I hope he gets his chance to run a more even paced race in the Irish Derby.
The fancied horses that ran the most even paced first 9f (very close to standard for each of the first and second sections) were Cracksman, Permian, Dubai Thunder and Capri.
Having watched the race several times over now,it was clear to see the advantage of how having 6 horses running gave AOB added advantage of getting the outcome he was hoping for. It almost seemed to go along the lines… 2 x horses make the pace (Douglas Macarthur/The Anvil), 2 x horses keep fancied chances close by (Venice Beach/Capri) and 2 x horses trying to win (Cliffs Of Moher/Wings Of Eagles)…it seemed that way anyway.
The blistering pace that was set by the 2 Coolmore horses would have won them The Kings Stand and a horse like BENBATL who couldn’t go the early pace was making ground hand over fist in the closing stages having been plum last most of the way, just like Wings Of Eagles he was making eye catching progress but with no chance of ever reaching the leading 4 at the finish because of the early pace. It was amazing to watch him eating up the ground in the closing stages and you wouldn’t have thought he’d have finished 8th or 9th let alone 5th.
He is the horse to take out of the race but take nothing away from the winner, he was the best on the day. JacIt may have looked that way on TV, in the race commentary (and I definitely thought that watching Live) but Simon Rowlands (formerly Prufock of this parish) has a much more nuanced view of the pace of the race and it is outlined in his article attached (I hope)
SR would have far more data at his disposal and more time to analyse than Richard Hoiles or other commentators in real time. A fast-slow-fast tempo seems to be indicated by the numbers and that gives a somewhat different perspective to the performances of the runners and which were advantaged or disadvantaged by the pace set-up.
Having backed two horses Douglas Macarthur and Cliffs Of Moher, I was feeling a little bruised and hard done by on Saturday afternoon but after numerous reviews, reflection and more evidence (such as above), I am more sanguine and looking forward to an interesting 3yo campaign for at least 8 of the participants and the annual clash of generations that follows in high summer.
It’s the same flawed logic that states Enable can’t win an Oaks because she has only won a Group 3 as opposed to Rhododendron who has won a Group 1. We now know that the Cheshire Oaks was probably a good race (well the first two were good anyway) and better than G3 standard like the Newbury conditions race won by Shutter Speed was more like a G1 in disguise! Some of those horses that won G3 trials will turn out to be only G3 standard but one or two step up and that is what we have seen this week. At this stage it can only be an (informed) guessing game in which you will get some right (Skiffle) and get some wrong (Enable). The trick is to get more right than wrong!!
Joni, Enable was not a Group 3 winner coming in. The Cheshire Oaks is only Listed Class.
I never ruled out Enable. I merely pointed out Rhododendron was a Group 1 winner and Enable was a Listed winner.
That’s not flawed logic, it’s simply a statement of fact. Rhododendron didn’t win it, she probably ran out of puff to some extent and met a filly who made a big leap forward.
It’s not flawed logic on my part. It just means that on this occasion the criteria was not successful. If it were flawed logic, it would be doomed to failure every time.
It’s an inexact science and we all choose which way we want to approach it, sometimes we are correct but the nature of the odds means that we all get it wrong a lot more often than we get it right. I often play from a long way out and get non-runners. I often end up getting significantly better odds AND a run, but it’s still well odds against actually getting a winner on the day and this season I’ve had some placing and others absolutely stinking the place out. It’s bloody tough getting it to all slot into place.
It’s only fun punting for me these days and passing an opinion.
I disagree that last year’s Derby was much cop at all. Funnily enough someone said last season that you can only count the 1st three or so in the Derby for analysing future form and they then promptly point to the 10th home winning a race, as proof of quality.
Anyway, as you say, time always tells. I am taking a negative view but that’s just my opinion. If people feel it’s a good race they can follow that belief with their money.
You’re a good punter Joni, you never seem to go too long without getting back into the groove. If everyone is happy with their methodology in the game, then that’s all that matters.
The old, pick a horse for a particular race, theory was rewarding on Saturday when Caspian Prince landed the Dash again, at 25/1.
It’s a sport with endless theories and methods. Nobody has the foolproof method though.
Looking ahead to the Irish Derby it’s pretty tight between Cracksman, Wings Of Eagles and Waldgeist. That would seem to suggest there is no outstanding 3YO colt for now. I notice Martyn Meade has gone back on being confident about a tilt at the race and is leaning towards the Eclipse. Hopefully that will give a line with the older horses. I’ll be backing the older ones for sure and am hoping Ribchester will show up there to spice the mix up.
Good luck whichever way you are leaning Joni. You are never far away from it.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Hi Stevie – excellent post mate. Just to clarify I am not saying that picking a Group 1 winner over a listed winner (sorry for my mistake!) is flawed logic. What I am trying to say is that judging a horse this early based on the fact that they have only won a listed race when they have only RUN in a listed race can be flawed as it doesn’t take into account the fact that they have only had the chance to run in that race. Of course Rhododendron brought proven Group 1 form with her and was the worthy favourite – I agreed with you all along that I thought she was the most likely winner if she stayed – Enable had it to prove. But of course we had both seen her run so well behind a horse we both like a lot and then follow it up impressively at Chester. There was always a chance that she would be able to handle the step up hence the fact she was second fav.
I totally agree with you that there is no standout 3 year old middle distance performer at the moment in fact I think John Gosden said they were all “solid performers” – no more. He is right. I hope that we might see Cracksman step up again with the benefit of more experience and Martyn Meade had some interesting things to say today about Jim Crowley (including getting into a bad position early on and losing his whip at the top of the straight!)
It’s never easy is it? I was with you on Taj Mahal and then he runs an absolute stormer yesterday – they are not machines I guess!!
Anyway – always enjoy debating with you and good luck yourself!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Don’t be too quickly swayed by recency bias HB. The Derby is more usually a very predictable Group 1 race.
Before Saturday, the last Derby winner who started in double figure odds was in 1998!Okay RR, then apparently I got trapped in the wrong one which is typically me..
Cheers Joni, Just to add that when I made my move on Rhododendron at 2/1, Enable was 7/2. That was a hugely different scenario to when they lined up later with Enable at double those odds and Rhododendron odds-on.
Having played a decent bet on Shutter Speed at 16/1, I only had one bullet left and couldn’t play each-way. I probably got too tied up in my own position on the race and didn’t allow for people who may have had their powder still dry.
Also, I found that a few Gosden fillies who had looked really promising earlier this season were coming out and fluffing their lines in the build up to the race. Gracious Diana was probably the most concerning. I felt perhaps Gracious Diana had just bumped into a really smart one but Natavia was bitterly disappointing in the Oaks.
Hard to know how much Rhododenron was impacted by the extra half mile but I do feel Enable improved quite a chunk on previous efforts.
I feel the Derby is moderate this year. Douglas Macarthur was having his 8th start and he’s only won twice. He has form tied in with Rekindling, who stank the place out on Saturday. I just cannot see how Douglas MacArthur has run the way he did and matched his PB. Improvement of the level required to achieve that feat seems fanciful in a horse beaten six times and as exposed as he is.
It was a weird looking ante-post market over the winter. Cliffs Of Moher came out of left field as Aiden’s best shot and it was unusual to see little confidence in the Racing Post Trophy winner Rivet following up at Epsom.
Some people felt this was a Derby for a rank outsider popping up and that is what we got. Weighing the evidence just says mediocre to me. Quite a few contenders this year came into the Derby with their best ratings looking static and recorded quite some time ago. The Dante was a bit of a boil over with Permian and he made zero impression in the Derby. Best Solution was an accident waiting to happen I felt. Capri looked too slow and a maiden winner went off a ridiculous 9/1.
Yes, the theory that so many horses may have improved in the one race could be true, but isn’t it a bit unlikely, when you consider how rarely that actually happens in a race? Not many handicappers would be keen to use the 7th horse as the one who ran to their mark in a race.
Even if we accept it at face value, it still leaves the race sitting in humdrum territory in terms of a renewal.
The Official Irish Handicapper has rated Wings Of Eagles on 119. If we go back to Golden Horn, he was rated 126 after his Derby. Would anyone back Wings Of Eagles getting 7 lbs from Golden Horn?
What would the odds be on that match?
Anyway, Cliffs Of Moher is on 117 now.
Timeform have Wings Of Eagles on 124p, just two behind Golden Horn. I am calling bollocks on that figure but only time will tell if I am havering, or they are.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
To be fair the RPR’s have only 8 horses improving their ratings and most of them were the inexperienced ones who hadn’t run many times (COM, Cracksman, Eminent, Benbatl etc) and who you might have expected to improve. I don’t know if you have read the Simon Rowlands piece (see above) but that points to the fact that Douglas Macarthur got a breather in during the middle part of the race which would explain how he managed to keep in front for so long. I think with Glencadam Glory, the small rise in rating is reasonable seeing as this was the first time he had managed to jump out of the stalls on time without conceding 10 lengths!
Like you say, even taking the ratings at face value, it is still a moderate renewal and I do think that the ratings, at this stage, are pretty close. However I also think that there are one or two in this field who remain unexposed and who are likely to be improvers as the season progresses. It will of course all come out in the wash and we should get the first clues at Sandown for the Eclipse if COM and Eminent take on their elders.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Hindsight a wonderful thing but wods run at Chester clearly showed he looked decent and he shouldn’t have gone off at 40-1. As aiden said you don’t know until they run the 12f who is best at that trip. Wings of desire was a totally worthy winner and if he improves for the race,as he should do,then I cant see anyone in the Derby beating him. Both com and cracksman just didn’t have the toe to win but that may be due to being not as forward as the winner. Eminent ran cracking race but once again absolutely no reason he should reverse the form. Capri is the horse for me to follow if there is some cut in the going. He was going as good as any but wouldn’t go on on the ground.i think it will turn out to be an ok Derby and had the winner been one of galileo sons then he would have got better press.
@RunningRein
Thanks RR that was a very informative piece from Simon Rowlands and interesting to see how those horses perform next time they run.
Also very interested on his comments about Frontiersman, a horse that I have followed last couple of years, and his performance in the Coronation Cup. JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
Looking forward to Royal Ascot now.
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