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I think you look too much into these ratings steve, I myself have never bothered with them too much, especially RPR’s. They never seem to give a consistent representation of form, highlighted by the inaccuracy of the ratings of today’s runners. However I’m sure they’ve served you well over the years so each to their own.
It wasn’t a vintage Derby but I think some nice types will come out of it going forward, and I’m certainly looking forward to the rematch. I’d wager it will turn out better than last year’s crop.
I could equally claim that you don’t look into them enough.
Professionals are being paid to assess the races. It’s a tough job and often I don’t agree with them by quite a margin but it’s better than ignoring them entirely and just guessing.
Some semblance of science in an inexact sport is better then none at all.
These were a moderate bunch in terms of the ratings spread, the O’Brien horses were playing musical chairs about which one of their horses came up on top in the build up and the race was won by about the 5th string from six runners. Ryan would almost certainly not have had Wings Of Eagles on his mind and prior to today’s race most people would probably have thought Paddy Beggy was the foul mouthed character from Trainspotting.
As I have said, plenty people disagreed with my assessment that last year’s Derby wasn’t great. Now that it is seen to be crap, not one person has ever acknowledged that I was correct. It was utter tripe.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I could equally claim that you don’t look into them enough.
Professionals are being paid to assess the races. It’s a tough job and often I don’t agree with them by quite a margin but it’s better than ignoring them entirely and just guessing.
Some semblance of science in an inexact sport is better then none at all.
I agree with everything you’ve said, its just you seem to be assessing the quality of the race purely off the figures someone in the Racing Post believed were an accurate evaluation, the same way you used that logic to conclude Rhododendron had much more in hand on her rivals than Caravaggio does on his.
I do think the ratings can be used very effectively as a guide, I just don’t think they should be treated as gospel.
I wasn’t a member of this forum this time last year, but I have no problem acknowledging you were right about the quality of last years Derby in retrospect. So well done, and there’s a great chance you’re right on this one too but personally I just want to give a few of them more of a chance before writing them off.
Had the winner been 6/4 he’d be getting Dancing Brave comparisons based on that run and it would be rash and costly to write the form off.
If he’d been badly outpaced and given a nice run round from there to find himself steadily picking everything off as they all collapsed I could see the point of criticism
He got slightly outpaced for a few strides coming into Tattenham Corner (in 3rd last position) but was soon back on the bridle. From there he had a nightmare run being hampered twice, the second time quite seriously and certainly enough to finish a horse with less heart.
Having had to rebuild momentum from that error, a furlong out he looks in an impossible position, but he wins it really sweetly with a fair bit in hand under a very cool ride close home.
Given the pace the Arc is usually run at and the hustle and bustle that often ensues, 25/1 is a daft price for this Derby Winner.
I can’t agree with that Joe.
We knew coming into this race that there was no outstanding contender.
John Gosden is no duck egg and he made it clear a long time ago that Cracksman was nowhere near the horse Golden Horn was and the owner has always been even more pessimistic that he didn’t have a Derby winning colt on his hands this year.
Whereas Aiden will always make it sound like the winner was always a great sort, John Gosden will tell it like it is.
Cracksman has gone well enough today but not good enough. Sometimes a winner is just the best of the bunch on the day.
Sometimes in life a poor winner emerges. Trying to make a winner look better than it is just devalues the occasions when we do see a good winner.
It doesn’t matter which horse won today, it was a poor renewal in my opinion. I predicted a long way back that this year’s winner would get a moderate rating and that is exactly what has happened. As usual, no credit for calling it early.
All the lays I gave for today also safely sank without trace but again, not a shred of recognition, just people queuing up to disagree.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Like father, like son – that was so reminiscent of Pour Moi’s Derby win, and I’d have this one as about that level.
Looking at it, I wouldn’t be too sure that the result won’t be the same next time, should they all meet again. The first two home were the two colts with the change of pace that one hopes to see in a classic. The difference between them is that Cliffs of Moher ran on empty in the last half furlong; Wings of Eagles, by contrast, really stays the trip well, plus he finally found top gear after the others, so he was easily able to put the race to bed at the end. He won that a shade cosily, I thought. As I’ve said on the Frankel thread, Cracksman & Eminent are both gallopers without a serious change of pace (more Noble Mission than Frankel). No question they are both solid G1 horses but, for me, they will always be vulnerable to a horse with a kick.
The other really interesting aspect of the race is the breeding angle. Here we have Montjeu establishing himself not just as a sire of Derby winners but as a sire line of Derby winners, akin to Mill Reef (Shirley Heights, Slip Anchor). In the process he’s also beaten Galileo and the Galileo grandsons. I’m not sure that was part of the script! As Louise has said, Pour Moi is on Coolmore’s NH roster and was moved there in 2017, when his first crop were 4yo’s, which is early to move one on by any standards. My hunch is that was to do with Coolmore’s promotion of Montjeu increasingly as a NH sire, plus having Camelot on the main roster. It will be interesting to see what happens next – with both Pour Moi and Wings of Eagles (who has a distinctly useful bottom half to his pedigree).
The question now is; who does Ryan Moore pick in the Irish Derby?
Why, do you think they are going to run more than one ?
Steve, more often than not I’ll back a horse because of the way he beat the others rather than by what he beat. An awful lot of horses who’d suffered the passage the winner did today would simply have wrapped it. Have a look at that interference he suffered about two and a half out. He’s twice had to relaunch his run and then, in the last furlong, hung in behind COM. Jock has worked with his whip in his left hand to get him out of there and running straight and as soon as the horse is balanced, Beggy wisely keeps him that way with hands and heels.
You might well be right that he hasn’t beaten any superstars, but he really did it the hard way. He has guts, stamina and a turn of foot. I wouldn’t be too worried by his lacklustre first season; he’s taken time to learn but much more importantly, this type of test has proved the making of him, and it’s precisely what he should get in the Arc.
“As I have said, plenty people disagreed with my assessment that last year’s Derby wasn’t great. Now that it is seen to be crap, not one person has ever acknowledged that I was correct. It was utter tripe.”
“I predicted a long way back that this year’s winner would get a moderate rating and that is exactly what has happened. As usual, no credit for calling it early.
All the lays I gave for today also safely sank without trace but again, not a shred of recognition, just people queuing up to disagree.”
Stevie – are you being genuine here or winding us up? What do you want? A round of applause every time you say something right? What about every time you say something wrong? Shall we boo? Mate – we all make predictions on here and we sometimes get them right and we sometimes get them wrong. I think we are very good at congratulating people who back the winner and sympathetic to those that don’t. You are a brilliant contributor to this forum but you really don’t have to be so needy!! We all rate you I promise!!!!
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Just got back from The Derby and finished watching the Champions League final. But my initial reaction from the race is that I reckon that Ryan thought he had it won after taking Cracksmen only to be beaten on the outside.
It can’t be a great renewal every year. Time will tell but it will still throw up a group 1 winner here or there this year.
It was clearly a very open affair as almost every horse in the race had forum members reasoning why they could or couldn’t win.
Whatever happens in the race, happens but I can tell you it has once again been fascinating reading through this derby thread since the back end of last year and that’s what it’s all about.If it does turn out to be a substandard renewal then it wouldn’t be the first time would it?
I wouldn’t start getting worried just yet about the standard of 3 year olds coming through.As an example I will give Highland Reel. Not given a chance in the derby, finished a mile behind in the Irish derby and now look at him. A king George, breeders cup and coronation cup winner. I personally think too much is expected of these 3 year olds year in year out.
Blabbering now, night night
Not the worst Derby ever but one that seemed as underwhelming as Lord Windermere’s Cheltenham Gold Cup.
I was cheering Cracksman and Eminent all the way but neither looked as though they were going to prevail. Eminent looked slightly unlucky and may have even grabbed third if he hadn’t have been caught in the sandwich between Cracksman and Cliffs Of Moher. Cracksman might turn out to be the best of the Frankel pair though. Kinda wondered how Mirage Dancer would’ve fared should he have contested
Wings Of Eagles comes across to me as another one of those flash-in-the-pan winners who’ll never perform to that standard again. I can see him along the likes of Homecoming Queen, Night Of Thunder, Arabian Queen, etc … the ones who pulled off a shock and hardly delivered again after their moments of glory. I’ll confidently oppose this horse should he contest with the runners up again.
Great boosts for the much derided Chester trials this time. Sorry for Running Rein that they ruined Douglas Macarthur’s prospects by making him the hare, might well have taken a hand. I thought The Anvil would have done the job adequately.
Steve, more often than not I’ll back a horse because of the way he beat the others rather than by what he beat. An awful lot of horses who’d suffered the passage the winner did today would simply have wrapped it. Have a look at that interference he suffered about two and a half out. He’s twice had to relaunch his run and then, in the last furlong, hung in behind COM. Jock has worked with his whip in his left hand to get him out of there and running straight and as soon as the horse is balanced, Beggy wisely keeps him that way with hands and heels.
You might well be right that he hasn’t beaten any superstars, but he really did it the hard way. He has guts, stamina and a turn of foot. I wouldn’t be too worried by his lacklustre first season; he’s taken time to learn but much more importantly, this type of test has proved the making of him, and it’s precisely what he should get in the Arc.
Only really good Derby winners win the Arc though Joe. Camelot went off a silly price 2/1 and failed miserably, Ruler Of The World was only 7/1 and was rubbish, Harzand went off 11/2 and was rubbish. It’s only the good winners of the Derby that go on to success in France and this just looks a good 10 lbs short of the required standard this year.
I saw some opinion earlier in the thread that stated Enable is a better horse than the Derby winner and for now Enable is half the odds of Wings Of Eagles for the Arc.
Enable beat a Guineas runner up and she did so with authority. Wings Of Eagles has just beaten a Listed Race winner, a conditions race winner and a group 3 winner (at a mile).
I don’t think people are taking into account the lack of high standard success. If Wings Of Eagles is going to on to other races this year and face older horses, he is going to start bumping into Group 1 winner and multiple group 1 winners in some cases. That is a whole different ball game to today’s opponents.
Time will tell as always. I am not looking for medals as Joni suggests. I am purely advising when I feel people are wasting money on certain horses. I felt Capri, Best Solution, Dubai Thunder and Douglas MacArthur were awful bets today, for various reasons. I had an early feeling that Douglas MacArthur was going to be the sacrifice horse for Ballydoyle today. The betting suggested for a long time that he was the least fancied of the clutch of horses tied really closely on form.
People are claiming I am relying too much on the figures but that is clearly not true. I drew attention coming into the race that Taj Mahal having a higher rating than Cliffs Of Moher was clearly bollocks.
Generally speaking in handicapping, the view is taken that the 3rd horse ran his race. The 1st and 2nd then have their marks raised for the future. Today, the Racing Post have raised the mark of the first SIX home and have taken Douglas MacArthur as having run his race on 111. Even Glencadam Glory in 9th place went up 7 lbs. In a race where horses had all only run two or three times and been unbeaten, you could argue that several could make big improvement but with several runs and defeats in the mix, that becomes less likely.
Some of these raises are stretching the imagination in my opinion and Douglas MacArthur was having his 8th race today, so highly unlikely to have improved enough to run to his best ever given the inefficient way he was ridden today.
I am examining multiple factors with my thinking here, I am not relying on any one factor. I am just trying to put forward my thinking here. Sorry if it sounds preachy. It’s just the way I work.
Best of luck everyone.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
For Capri fans, if you feel your horse will do better over further, you can back him for the Queen’s Vase at 16/1. Today’s winner Wings Of Eagles is 5/1 Fav for that race, yet you would think they will stay at 12F with him now, as a Derby winner.
16/1 just seems much better value than 5/1 on a horse probably unlikely to take the “Plodders” route.
Just a thought for his supporters anyway.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Personally, I can’t be doing with Ante Post Steve and I never bet on a horse to lose a race quite honestly that would not make me feel happy it would make me miserable. I don’t usually even begin to think about the Oaks and Derby until after the 1000 and 2000 Guineas and then I try to find a maximum of two horses against the field,
In this Thread I think the chances of so many horses have been discussed and at some point it all can get very confusing. But everyone has their own way of backing horses and you have yours and you are extremely knowledgeable on your subject but for myself I’m not worried about the ratings and the horses have no idea what their rating is, they will run to the best of their ability whatever someone decides to rate them and that’s what happened today…a shock result but all credit to the winner.
Really disappointed that my Eminent couldn’t have done better but I know that his future is assured and he and Cracksman no way disgraced. Cracksman the better horse on the day but feel for Cliffs Of Moher backers desperately unlucky
Keep doing what you do Steve, because you do it well. It’s not my way but I do enjoy your posts and stop worrying about getting credit we all notice don’t worry..
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...… Douglas MacArthur was having his 8th race today, so highly unlikely to have improved enough to run to his best ever given the inefficient way he was ridden today.
An alternative perspective would be to say that Douglas Macarthur matched his previous best form despite not having been ridden to best effect today. It could, therefore, be assumed that he too would have shown improved form had he been ridden more effectively.
@DARREN
Darren said….Trip had a look at a few horses for derby next year can see CRYSTAL KID a Royal Ascot 2018 Winner.
Darren did you mean CRYSTAL KING (Frankel – Crystal Star (Mark Of Esteem) trained by Michael Stoute.
Half brother to Crystal Capella so will get 12f and worth watching if he comes out this season
Good luck with your early bird bets Darren.
Looking forward to Royal Ascot now.Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
Jac
Looking forward to Royal Ascot now.- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.