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keep getting drawn back to this venice beach horse- hope I am not going to regret not backing him over the winter.
Venice Beach might be a good play for the derby
related to an arc winner and the way it stayed on in it’s maiden suggests to me it could be high in the pecking order in the O’Brien stable, in terms of what horses they’re going to be aiming at the big race
words written many months ago and if he wins now when I haven’t had a bean on I will feel utterly sick
so will have a saver on him at leastsurely as far as the ground is concerned there’s rain forecast for the rest of the week so the derby could turn into a bit of a slog, not convinced about the “speed” horses like cracksman under those conditions, the hardened stayers like venice beach might well have the whip hand
although I do think eminent’s action has been crying out for softer conditions, whether he will get the trip on soft ground remains to be seen
although groundsman reckons there won’t be much rain apart from possibly friday night going into saturday morning
surely as far as the ground is concerned there’s rain forecast for the rest of the week so the derby could turn into a bit of a slog, not convinced about the “speed” horses like cracksman under those conditions, the hardened stayers like venice beach might well have the whip hand
although I do think eminent’s action has been crying out for softer conditions, whether he will get the trip on soft ground remains to be seen
After today there isn’t any rain forecast, so I’m guessing the ground will at worst be good.
With Churchill 99.99% a non runner now and NRNB popping up i’m going for the horse i think has a great chance of winning at a price. I have been wanting to back him for a month now and have just been waiting on Churchill.
For me the only horse that has looked like a G1 horse in the English Trials is Best Solution. He was really impressive winning his trial, in what looked a fast run race. Also i like Capri and Douglas Mcarthur from the Derrinstown with preference for Capri because i think the other is going to be used as a pacemaker to make this a very stiff test of stamina.
Walgeist is the one for me. Certain to appreciate 1 Mile 4 and the only Group 1 winner in the field ( Criterium De Saint-cloud ). In that race he really picked up in the last furlong to go past the field to win comfortably. Second was Best Solution,3 rd Capri and 4th Douglas Mcarthur. Also further behind was Rekindling and Wings of Eagles.
After the race Fabre also entered him in the Irish Derby saying he would be going for that also after the English version.
In his trial this year he was second to Recoletos over 9F who looks a very, very good horse.
It’s always been a bit of an ambition to have a good win on the Derby and i’m up £70 whatever wins in the Derby and Oaks. Decision made Walgeist to win the Derby £70 @ 20’s NRNB
How this horse is sat at 20/1 when some others have not acheived anything like his form is beyond me.
Wow, that must of been the shortest lasting AP bet i have ever made. Thank God i waited for Churchill not being declared and NRNB
It could be an indicator with Magnier / Tabor being a 50% stakeholder in Walgeist, that they have something better at home.
Looks like i’m sticking with what i’ve got now.
Cooper mentioned that before the rain arrived it was close to being firm ground – although seeing them galloping at BWTS would indicate there was some give in it.
He then said “We might get a few more showers today, according to the forecast, but we’re due to be dry Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday,” he said. “We might get a bit more rain on Friday night into Saturday.” My guess is it will just be on the slow side of good, which won’t inconvenience too much the perceived ‘quicker horses’ but it will give hope to those who want some cut in it (not quite sure it would be soft enough for Dubai Thunder though).
Not sure it would be safe to assume that if we do have proper soft ground that it will suit the stronger stayers just because it puts more emphasis on stamina, to me it would help Dubai Thunder (won on soft), Capri (won on heavy) and maybe Rekindling (won on soft but also beaten on soft) but Venice Beach was beaten on his only try on soft and Glencadam Glory has never run on it but his sire (Nathaniel) won on good to soft but was beaten twice by Frankel on his two tries on soft ground.
Cracksman won at Newmarket on good to soft and the way he gallops would indicate he would enjoy some give in the ground over much quicker ground (we know Frankel handled soft ground) but interestingly enough Cracksman’s dam not only won on soft ground but also ran three times on heavy with one win (in France) and two second placings. I think connections would only be worried about the ground if it was heavy.
I strongly believe that no horse truly wants (or is effective on) heavy ground but rather it is simply a case that a small miinority are simply more able to cope with those conditions than the vast majority of horses.
Good to Soft at Epsom now after 15mm of rain. That will help Best Solution, Dubai Thunder and Capri but will probably put a fork in Eminent and Cliffs Of Moher with the extra stamina demands.
I see Capri at 10/1 with three firms, that looks way skinny, even with the rain. I also see Venice Beach as low as 9/1.
Diore Lia is 2000/1 with Bet Victor. Good on them. Firms offering 500/1 should be ashamed of themselves.
LOL that’s a bit dramatic! Putting a fork in their chances just cos it’s gone good to soft? If the horse is good enough, he’ll win.
Gotta agree 100% about Capri at 10/1. Disgusting. Taking bets at that price is tantamount to theft. Diore Lia should be 1 million to 1. Free PR for any bookmaker who wants it. Will be flooded with £1 bets. More theft but essentially legal profit.
Probably have to agree with Zarkava here. Epsom in June is rarely a bog, and if there is some cut, the best horse will win anyway- can anyone recall a derby result that was altered because of the ground, I can’t.
Probably have to agree with Zarkava here. Epsom in June is rarely a bog, and if there is some cut, the best horse will win anyway- can anyone recall a derby result that was altered because of the ground, I can’t.
Had it been run on good ground compared to heavy then probably Teenoso might not have won the 1983 Derby (his winning time was 2m 49.07s compared to Workforce’s 2m 31.33s track record), he was beaten in Irish Derby on quick ground after that but then the following year he stunned most by winning the King George on very fast ground.
I’m quite happy to see the way things are going with CAPRI, who I put
up last Friday at 25/1. The market has been quite positive, he’s best priced 14/1 now
and as low as 9s. I’m going to throw one in to go with him, that I think might have place
prospects. CROWNED EAGLE at 40/1 with Bet365 has done very little wrong,
even if he hasn’t gone the route of a normal Derby candidate. He won his maiden last November
in quite an impressive manner, although nothing in that race franked the form in any way.
Again, a class 4 handicap at Windsor on his only outing this year doesn’t scream he should
be Derby bound, but he won it ridiculously easy carrying top weight. I doubt at the start
of the year that John Gosden gave a second thought to the Derby, but he could just be a
progressive horse that is better than the races he’s been aimed at. If I’m honest I’d be
shocked if he won, but he might just be a dark horse who could surprise a few and outrun
his 40/1 odds. I think he’s worth a speculative e/w at that price.Glory glory hallelujah…TAPK has said all year Tartini would turn up at Epsom on 3rd June….Ok its not quite the race I anticipated but William Hill are going 5/1 about him winning the ‘Handicap’ that kicks the day off and I’ve had a ton on to win at that…Redemption here I come.
Glory glory hallelujah…TAPK has said all year Tartini would turn up at Epsom on 3rd June….Ok its not quite the race I anticipated but William Hill are going 5/1 about him winning the ‘Handicap’ that kicks the day off and I’ve had a ton on to win at that…Redemption here I come.
Gosden must be reading these pages. He was talking about taking Tartini UP in trip but must have read the forum and agreed that the horse didn’t get home last time. From talking of the Queen’s Vase at Ascot over 1m 6f and now down to a handicap over half a mile shorter at Epsom is a fairly big change of heart. I haven’t looked at the Epsom handicap yet but Tartini is rated 97.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Big G makes a strong case for Capri earlier in the thread and I see the money has come for him
Personally the way Winter hosed up in the 1000 I’d ignore this gamble at your peril, as you’d have to think it’s to some extent stable generated.
I think if it’s good ground I don’t think Capri can win but if it’s riding soft then who knows… although another grey eminent I think would relish soft ground even more… does anyone know who is likely to ride the stable second string? Heffernan?
Big G makes a strong case for Capri earlier in the thread and I see the money has come for him
Personally the way Winter hosed up in the 1000 I’d ignore this gamble at your peril, as you’d have to think it’s to some extent stable generated.
I think if it’s good ground I don’t think Capri can win but if it’s riding soft then who knows… although another grey eminent I think would relish soft ground even more… does anyone know who is likely to ride the stable second string? Heffernan?
It doesn’t seem like there’s any chance of the ground coming up soft though, so I can’t see the justification behind the Capri gamble. Heffernan will be on the second string but there’s no guarantee that will be Capri.
Field taking shape now.
I have two ant post bets on Douglas MacArthur and Cliffs of Moher and I think I will stick at that.
DMac is in a double with Churchill in the Guineas form last June but I would just about back him again at 20/1 ‘ish if I wasn’t already involved. He is a bonny little colt with a nice action and balance as well as some tactical pace. His effort in France last backend after two moderate efforts showed me he was getting to grips with racing again.
He is not the biggest though and I think the draw would be more important to him than most. Ideally between 8 and 15…a low pitch might be an end to his chances.
Cliffs of Moher looks strong, I do like a bit of speed rating/sectional form for a Derby horse and I regret letting my doubts about Golden Horn’s stamina overcome his speed numbers, which were exceptional. CoM time ratings just as good and arguably a stronger pedigree to boot. So if a colt can do it in the eye for me and CoM did at Leopardstown and Chester then the time figures add to his appeal considerably.
Cracksman is feared, as I love his form and potential, though I don’t like his action at all for Epsom which is ironic of course as he has won already on the singular track there. I just wish he hadn’t run at Epsom before.
Of the others…I don’t like any of the ‘Chester Vase 3’ (not enough speed with that lot), none of Godolphin inspire (they just plain shouldn’t be running the promising Dubai Thunder). Of the supplemented colts, I was very taken with Khalidi at Goodwood and favour him over the more solid Permian, who is good but I think may have a lower ceiling.My four at this stage would be (in this order)
Cliffs Of Moher
Cracksman
Douglas MacArthur
KhalidiAlso, I just have a hunch that despite the noises about 7 runners Aidan will withdraw a couple on Thursday leaving 5.
Big G makes a strong case for Capri earlier in the thread and I see the money has come for him
Personally the way Winter hosed up in the 1000 I’d ignore this gamble at your peril, as you’d have to think it’s to some extent stable generated.
I think if it’s good ground I don’t think Capri can win but if it’s riding soft then who knows… although another grey eminent I think would relish soft ground even more… does anyone know who is likely to ride the stable second string? Heffernan?
It doesn’t seem like there’s any chance of the ground coming up soft though, so I can’t see the justification behind the Capri gamble. Heffernan will be on the second string but there’s no guarantee that will be Capri.
There’s no doubting that Capri would handle soft ground without any difficulty, but when I put
him up it wasn’t because I thought it would come up very soft, it was because I thought he was
better than some of his results suggest and I thought he would be a better horse over 12f. If
it did stay on the soft side it certainly wouldn’t inconvenience him, whereas it would some of
his rivals, but I don’t think that he is soft ground dependent. He ran a sound race last time out
at Leopardstown on good to firm, beaten in third by his 2 O’Brien stable mates, with a cigarette
paper between the 3 of them. I think had he had the extra 2 furlongs he would have won. I think
a lot more was expected of this horse early in his career, which he maybe hasn’t lived up to, but
I think he still has the ability, and over the right distance for him I think he has a live chance
of taking this.
so will have a saver on him at least
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