The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Derby 2017

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion Derby 2017

Viewing 17 posts - 460 through 476 (of 641 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1302472
    Jonibake
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4457

    Cannot believe you won’t part with £2 to buy the paper but prefer to furtively read it in between the broccoli and potatoes. Shame on you Judge!!!!

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1302474
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34537

    I do the same but not furtively.

    Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

    #1302475
    Avatar photothejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2251

    Cannot believe you won’t part with £2 to buy the paper but prefer to furtively read it in between the broccoli and potatoes. Shame on you Judge!!!!

    Lol I was only interested in reading that article anyway, I often buy it :whistle:

    #1302476
    Avatar photothejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2251

    I think it’s more like £3 quid anyway

    that could be a bet on a horse! :yahoo:

    #1302518
    Avatar photoMiddle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2833

    What’s people views on Glencadem Glory?

    I couldn’t not back him for this at 40s a while back.

    The thing is, I’m looking at him more of a St Leger horse but can’t go in as a max bet quite yet as I have no idea if that’s even part of their thinking.

    A flying home performance that screams St Leger suits me (preferably behind Cliffs Of Moher) but at 40/1, a few quid for this won’t hurt.

    Absolute guaranteed stayer in the Derby and his price at 33s currently will shorten in play to 12s instantly if he doesn’t miss the break again.

    I like a strong stayer for the Derby who is suited to running further than a Guineas type horse.

    #1302519
    Avatar photobefair
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2261

    Its a bloody shame that 2 of the greatest horses of the past 5 years Frankel and Churchill wont have contested The Derby.The latter proved yesterday a mile is his absolute minimum trip and would win this years Epsom showpiece giving all a 5 length lead.Churchill is an absolute certainty to sire the 2021 Derby winner and hopefully we will at least see him contest a 11/2m Group 1 this year ideally the King george and Arc after the Eclipse and St James Palace Stakes.Unfortunately for those of us loyal Frankel supporters who felt robbed by him not running over a 11/2m we will depend on his sons Cracksman and Eminent to show that their sire should have taken the route of the truly great racehorses like Dancing Brave.

    Have to agree with this; once again a case of the breeding tale wagging the racing dog. Flat racing at top level is too much about stud fees. Frankel stayed 10 furlongs well enough at York, and by not competing in the great races, the Derby, or the Arc, his legacy isn’t quite his brilliance deserved

    #1302520
    Avatar photostevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8241

    I can’t understand why anyone would think Cracksman won’t stay. He came home well over a mile at Newmarket on good to soft ground as a 2yo. He was also tanking along at the finish in the Derby trial.

    I have watched that Derby trial plenty of times. Cracksman misses the kick but he soon gets a good position and travels well enough. As already said, as Frankie gets ready to take him out for his run, Permian makes the first move and in doing so blocks Frankie’s exit point.

    At the furlong pole it looks like Frankie is getting there in time but a few strides after that point it looks like Cracksman runs a bit green, drifting out from the rail slightly and hangs fire for a few strides before then renewing his effort and just getting home in time. I feel the horse was entitled to be that bit inexperienced at Epsom on only the second start of his life. That form looks better after the Dante and if there is a horse in this year’s Derby who is capable of improving to a mark that will not look relatively poor, then it is probably Cracksman.

    It would be very unusual for a Gosden colt not to come forward again from his second start.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1302521
    Avatar photoMiddle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2833

    I can’t understand why anyone would think Cracksman won’t stay. He came home well over a mile at Newmarket on good to soft ground as a 2yo. He was also tanking along at the finish in the Derby trial.

    I have watched that Derby trial plenty of times. Cracksman misses the kick but he soon gets a good position and travels well enough. As already said, as Frankie gets ready to take him out for his run, Permian makes the first move and in doing so blocks Frankie’s exit point.

    At the furlong pole it looks like Frankie is getting there in time but a few strides after that point it looks like Cracksman runs a bit green, drifting out from the rail slightly and hangs fire for a few strides before then renewing his effort and just getting home in time. I feel the horse was entitled to be that bit inexperienced at Epsom on only the second start of his life. That form looks better after the Dante and if there is a horse in this year’s Derby who is capable of improving to a mark that will not look relatively poor, then it is probably Cracksman.

    It would be very unusual for a Gosden colt not to come forward again from his second start.

    I can’t see him not staying the trip. I expect him to place for sure.

    #1302522
    Avatar photoMiddle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2833

    Its a bloody shame that 2 of the greatest horses of the past 5 years Frankel and Churchill wont have contested The Derby.The latter proved yesterday a mile is his absolute minimum trip and would win this years Epsom showpiece giving all a 5 length lead.Churchill is an absolute certainty to sire the 2021 Derby winner and hopefully we will at least see him contest a 11/2m Group 1 this year ideally the King george and Arc after the Eclipse and St James Palace Stakes.Unfortunately for those of us loyal Frankel supporters who felt robbed by him not running over a 11/2m we will depend on his sons Cracksman and Eminent to show that their sire should have taken the route of the truly great racehorses like Dancing Brave.

    Have to agree with this; once again a case of the breeding tale wagging the racing dog. Flat racing at top level is too much about stud fees. Frankel stayed 10 furlongs well enough at York, and by not competing in the great races, the Derby, or the Arc, his legacy isn’t quite his brilliance deserved

    I have to disagree on the last line there.

    It would’ve been great to see what he would do in a Derby but him not running makes his legacy no worse than it is. He is the best horse any of us will see on a racecourse.

    He tore top level horses apart time and time again. He ran at 2 and was the best 2 year old. He ran at 3 and was the best 3 year old. He ran at 4 and was the best 4 year old. It’s rare to have a flat horse at the top level go on to 4 – especially if unbeaten. He stepped up in trip at 4 beating one of the best horses in the last 10 years – Cirris Des Aigles – brilliantly at Ascot.

    For me, he didn’t run in the Derby but his legacy will always be head and shoulders better than anything we will see again. Because he ran and won in so many other group 1s it makes up for not going to the Derby or Arc.

    #1302535
    Avatar photothejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2251

    Totally agree think Cracksman is nailed on to stay the distance, Tom Segal was very bullish about him in the weekender even comparing him to Troy.

    Could be a big weekend for Gosden and Dettori :good:

    #1302540
    Avatar photoThe Ante-Post King
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8696

    I maybe over £500 down on this race Ante-Post which is the worse position I have ever been in since I lost £300 on that nag of Geoff wraggs..’Red’ something back in the 80’s..(Won the Dante) but the ‘Tartini’ form will win the day.’Permian’ has franked the form brilliantly winning twice and boosted the lightly raced ‘Cracksman’ but Best solution giving 5lb to ‘Tartini’ and stuffing him when everything was in the Strawbridge horses favour is imo the single best piece of form going into Epsom…My idea of the first 3 home with my own wagers to redeem myself from a disaster are;

    1st Best solution 22’s down and place
    2nd Cracksman 10’s to win
    3rd Douglas Mccarthur 46’s down and place,I’ve always liked this horse.

    #1302541
    Jonibake
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4457

    What’s people views on Glencadem Glory?

    I couldn’t not back him for this at 40s a while back.

    The thing is, I’m looking at him more of a St Leger horse but can’t go in as a max bet quite yet as I have no idea if that’s even part of their thinking.

    A flying home performance that screams St Leger suits me (preferably behind Cliffs Of Moher) but at 40/1, a few quid for this won’t hurt.

    Absolute guaranteed stayer in the Derby and his price at 33s currently will shorten in play to 12s instantly if he doesn’t miss the break again.

    I like a strong stayer for the Derby who is suited to running further than a Guineas type horse.

    I’ve backed him both starts this term MOM and have been left cursing my luck both times. The bloody thing refuses to leave the stalls with the others and has blown his chance both times. He lost 15 lengths in that first race (eventually beaten 5) and then about 8 or 9 lengths in the Derby Trial (beaten 3 1/2 by Best Solution). IF they can get him to break and the ground gets soft (they had 15mm last night currently Good To Soft) then there are far worse 50-1 bets around. You are right – he is a live contender for the St Leger whatever happens. These Nathaniels are good I think, they stay all day and love a bit of cut.

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1302546
    Avatar photoMiddle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2833

    What’s people views on Glencadem Glory?

    I couldn’t not back him for this at 40s a while back.

    The thing is, I’m looking at him more of a St Leger horse but can’t go in as a max bet quite yet as I have no idea if that’s even part of their thinking.

    A flying home performance that screams St Leger suits me (preferably behind Cliffs Of Moher) but at 40/1, a few quid for this won’t hurt.

    Absolute guaranteed stayer in the Derby and his price at 33s currently will shorten in play to 12s instantly if he doesn’t miss the break again.

    I like a strong stayer for the Derby who is suited to running further than a Guineas type horse.

    I’ve backed him both starts this term MOM and have been left cursing my luck both times. The bloody thing refuses to leave the stalls with the others and has blown his chance both times. He lost 15 lengths in that first race (eventually beaten 5) and then about 8 or 9 lengths in the Derby Trial (beaten 3 1/2 by Best Solution). IF they can get him to break and the ground gets soft (they had 15mm last night currently Good To Soft) then there are far worse 50-1 bets around. You are right – he is a live contender for the St Leger whatever happens. These Nathaniels are good I think, they stay all day and love a bit of cut.

    I’d be interested to know what price in running he would be if he breaks level.

    I’m on at 25s for the st Leger as I just think he will be an absolute machine at that trip. Look how close he’s getting over an inadequate trip currently plus the fact he has been missing the start. 1m 6f looks like being his bread and butter.

    In fact it was me who had him introduced to the market for the st Leger.

    Soft ground is a help for the Derby I agree. I have had to play just in case he wins but perhaps more realistically, he’s a running on 5th or 6th which virtually forces connections to go to Doncaster.

    Good to hear I’m not alone with GG support

    #1302549
    Jonibake
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4457

    I’m with you MOM and have just backed him for the Leger myself! Great minds…… :)

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1302557
    Jonibake
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4457

    Steve made a good point yesterday that the facile win of Winter is a huge advertisement for Rhododendron in the Oaks as the form is different class to anything else. By the same reasoning I would suggest that Churchill’s easy win on Saturday can only be a boost for the chances of Eminent. He was beaten 3 1/2 lengths in the Guineas despite being slightly hampered in the last 200 yards and I am fairly certain it will turn out to be a very good race. Not only the winner who is top-class but you also have Barney Roy and Al Wukair who I am sure will be competing in all the top races this year. Opinion is divided as to whether Eminent will stay but the dam recorded her best RPR over a mile and a half and the Grand Dam was also at her best over that trip. With the Frankel’s looking like they will be better over a trip, I think the probability is that he WILL stay.

    The rain that fell last night will also be in his favour as the jockey has said that he is likely to be better with a little bit of give. Good ground will be perfect, I think they were concerned about Good to Firm.

    It is clearly a wide-open race and you normally wouldn’t want to be backing a horse that finished 6th last time out but nothing has really emerged from the pack during the trials so this one is still the highest rated.

    Obviously being a Frankel fan I would be delighted if Cracksman could win and he clearly has a great chance too. I have missed the decent prices on him but will be cheering him on as loudly as if I had my house on him. My one concern is that not many of the Frankel’s seem to be improving much for their first run. Hopefully this one will be an exception!

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1302559
    Avatar photoVoleur
    Participant
    • Total Posts 656

    Steve made a good point yesterday that the facile win of Winter is a huge advertisement for Rhododendron in the Oaks as the form is different class to anything else. By the same reasoning I would suggest that Churchill’s easy win on Saturday can only be a boost for the chances of Eminent. He was beaten 3 1/2 lengths in the Guineas despite being slightly hampered in the last 200 yards and I am fairly certain it will turn out to be a very good race. Not only the winner who is top-class but you also have Barney Roy and Al Wukair who I am sure will be competing in all the top races this year. Opinion is divided as to whether Eminent will stay but the dam recorded her best RPR over a mile and a half and the Grand Dam was also at her best over that trip. With the Frankel’s looking like they will be better over a trip, I think the probability is that he WILL stay.

    I think you might be happy – most likely sad, to hear Ted Walsh agrees with you. :unsure:

    #1302560
    Avatar photostevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8241

    Good to Soft at Epsom now after 15mm of rain. That will help Best Solution, Dubai Thunder and Capri but will probably put a fork in Eminent and Cliffs Of Moher with the extra stamina demands.

    I see Capri at 10/1 with three firms, that looks way skinny, even with the rain. I also see Venice Beach as low as 9/1.

    Diore Lia is 2000/1 with Bet Victor. Good on them. Firms offering 500/1 should be ashamed of themselves.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

Viewing 17 posts - 460 through 476 (of 641 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.