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Dubai Thunder got a Racing Post Rating of 102 for winning a maiden on a ploughed field the other week. That leaves him just 4 lbs behind Cliffs Of Moher on the latter’s official mark. Surely that leaves Cliffs Of Moher fans cacking themselves at 4/1, when the Godolphin horse is 20/1, yet so close in the ratings?
Getting more scared of Dubai Thunder the closer we get to the day. Only potential monsters in the field are this guy + Eminent IMO, remain unconvinced by anything else. The forecast?
Followed you in on that MoM so I’ve got
Glencadam Glory 40-1 E/W
Eminent 40-1 E/W
and a little Gosden weekend Cracksman/Coronet E/W 80-1 double that somebody else here suggested.
Hope GG well enough schooled in the stalls to be given his chance.Dubai Thunder got a Racing Post Rating of 102 for winning a maiden on a ploughed field the other week. That leaves him just 4 lbs behind Cliffs Of Moher on the latter’s official mark. Surely that leaves Cliffs Of Moher fans cacking themselves at 4/1, when the Godolphin horse is 20/1, yet so close in the ratings?
Getting more scared of Dubai Thunder the closer we get to the day. Only potential monsters in the field are this guy + Eminent IMO, remain unconvinced by anything else. The forecast?
I don’t recall writing that
Dubai Thunder got a Racing Post Rating of 102 for winning a maiden on a ploughed field the other week. That leaves him just 4 lbs behind Cliffs Of Moher on the latter’s official mark. Surely that leaves Cliffs Of Moher fans cacking themselves at 4/1, when the Godolphin horse is 20/1, yet so close in the ratings?
Getting more scared of Dubai Thunder the closer we get to the day. Only potential monsters in the field are this guy + Eminent IMO, remain unconvinced by anything else. The forecast?
I don’t recall writing that
That’s because I wrote it.
Funny things happen when people get paranoid.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Followed you in on that MoM so I’ve got
Glencadam Glory 40-1 E/W
Eminent 40-1 E/W
and a little Gosden weekend Cracksman/Coronet E/W 80-1 double that somebody else here suggested.
Hope GG well enough schooled in the stalls to be given his chance.I’ve got the image in my mind of him flying up the Epsom hill before winning the leger
It’s the leger I’m all over him for tbh. But I have a few quid on in this. 40s available still so been topping up
Dubai Thunder got a Racing Post Rating of 102 for winning a maiden on a ploughed field the other week. That leaves him just 4 lbs behind Cliffs Of Moher on the latter’s official mark. Surely that leaves Cliffs Of Moher fans cacking themselves at 4/1, when the Godolphin horse is 20/1, yet so close in the ratings?
Getting more scared of Dubai Thunder the closer we get to the day. Only potential monsters in the field are this guy + Eminent IMO, remain unconvinced by anything else. The forecast?
I don’t recall writing that
That’s because I wrote it.
Funny things happen when people get paranoid.
I don’t understand why it quoted you, thejudge1. As Steve says, he wrote it.
After much umming and aahing I have come down on the side of EMINENT. My first bet on the derby placed today, £50 on at 7-1.
Obviously you would have to forgive him his last run but think there was some valid reasons for that display and his craven run was all about stamina
I also loved the way he travelled the other day in his breakfast with the stars workout
Not convinced backing O’Briens in a long-term winning strategy so happy to leave his alone. I did a survey the other day which showed that if you backed every O’Brien runner in the last 11 runnings (and he’s had over 40 in that period) then you’d be -£35 to a level stake, even though he’s had three winners in that period. I would describe O’Brien’s approach to the derby as like using a sledgehammer to crack a peanut.
Obviously have to totally respect “the master” steve’s tip cracksman, however I don’t think he’ll as travel as well as eminent, and I think that could be decisive.
No umming and ahhng for me judge as you know EMINENT is virtually all I have talked about since I saw him win his Maiden last year and after seeing his workout at Breakfast with the Stars I think Epsom will suit his style and coming round Tattenham Corner he is going to feel let loose not having to cope with a tough uphill finish.
I’m just willing Martyn Meade and this talented youngster to win this on Saturday because for this yard Eminent is the horse of a lifetime he holds all their hopes and dreams and on Saturday they will know if they have been justified.
Eminent looks the part, he has the breeding and on Saturday he can take that step to have his name remembered forever in history as the winner of the 2017 Derby.
Good luck to everyone. JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Its a bloody shame that 2 of the greatest horses of the past 5 years Frankel and Churchill wont have contested The Derby.The latter proved yesterday a mile is his absolute minimum trip and would win this years Epsom showpiece giving all a 5 length lead.Churchill is an absolute certainty to sire the 2021 Derby winner and hopefully we will at least see him contest a 11/2m Group 1 this year ideally the King george and Arc after the Eclipse and St James Palace Stakes.Unfortunately for those of us loyal Frankel supporters who felt robbed by him not running over a 11/2m we will depend on his sons Cracksman and Eminent to show that their sire should have taken the route of the truly great racehorses like Dancing Brave.
Not convinced backing O’Briens in a long-term winning strategy so happy to leave his alone. I did a survey the other day which showed that if you backed every O’Brien runner in the last 11 runnings (and he’s had over 40 in that period) then you’d be -£35 to a level stake, even though he’s had three winners in that period. I would describe O’Brien’s approach to the derby as like using a sledgehammer to crack a peanut.
That’s an interesting stat Judge , but I don’t think it means all that much in itself, as it’s all about backing the right Ballydoyle horse. I’m sure the profit to level stakes would look a lot different if you bet on their perceived first-string, or even second-string e/w, rather than all 40 of their runners, who most of which are there only to do a job.
Its a bloody shame that 2 of the greatest horses of the past 5 years Frankel and Churchill wont have contested The Derby.The latter proved yesterday a mile is his absolute minimum trip and would win this years Epsom showpiece giving all a 5 length lead.Churchill is an absolute certainty to sire the 2021 Derby winner and hopefully we will at least see him contest a 11/2m Group 1 this year ideally the King george and Arc after the Eclipse and St James Palace Stakes.Unfortunately for those of us loyal Frankel supporters who felt robbed by him not running over a 11/2m we will depend on his sons Cracksman and Eminent to show that their sire should have taken the route of the truly great racehorses like Dancing Brave.
Old Chestnut anyone? Get your old chestnuts here. Roll Up Roll Up!
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Its a bloody shame that 2 of the greatest horses of the past 5 years Frankel and Churchill wont have contested The Derby.
I don’t think running in the Derby is the be-all and end-all, especially from a breeding point of view. Coolmore have three 12f superstar stallions in Galileo, Camelot and Australia, but only really Gleneagles and the Ghurkha as star milers – unless you count Canford Cliffs/Excelebration, which I don’t.
Unrelated to the Derby, but at this stage in his career, do people think Churchill is better than Gleneagles? I believe he has the potential to be better, but I can’t separate them as of now.
With Churchill 99.99% a non runner now and NRNB popping up i’m going for the horse i think has a great chance of winning at a price. I have been wanting to back him for a month now and have just been waiting on Churchill.
For me the only horse that has looked like a G1 horse in the English Trials is Best Solution. He was really impressive winning his trial, in what looked a fast run race. Also i like Capri and Douglas Mcarthur from the Derrinstown with preference for Capri because i think the other is going to be used as a pacemaker to make this a very stiff test of stamina.
Walgeist is the one for me. Certain to appreciate 1 Mile 4 and the only Group 1 winner in the field ( Criterium De Saint-cloud ). In that race he really picked up in the last furlong to go past the field to win comfortably. Second was Best Solution,3 rd Capri and 4th Douglas Mcarthur. Also further behind was Rekindling and Wings of Eagles.
After the race Fabre also entered him in the Irish Derby saying he would be going for that also after the English version.
In his trial this year he was second to Recoletos over 9F who looks a very, very good horse.
It’s always been a bit of an ambition to have a good win on the Derby and i’m up £70 whatever wins in the Derby and Oaks. Decision made Walgeist to win the Derby £70 @ 20’s NRNB
How this horse is sat at 20/1 when some others have not acheived anything like his form is beyond me.
I see the curse of Taj Mahal was at work again today. Red Label went off 2/1 Favourite for the Gallinule at the Curragh and his previous start was a neck win over Taj Mahal. Red Label went into that race rated 81 and had his rating increased by 24 lbs after beating the O’Brien horse.
Red Label could finish only 5th today, the race being won by a reasonably exposed Ballydoyle horse rated only 93. In theory Red Label had 12 lbs in hand of him on official ratings.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
With Churchill 99.99% a non runner now and NRNB popping up i’m going for the horse i think has a great chance of winning at a price. I have been wanting to back him for a month now and have just been waiting on Churchill.
For me the only horse that has looked like a G1 horse in the English Trials is Best Solution. He was really impressive winning his trial, in what looked a fast run race. Also i like Capri and Douglas Mcarthur from the Derrinstown with preference for Capri because i think the other is going to be used as a pacemaker to make this a very stiff test of stamina.
Walgeist is the one for me. Certain to appreciate 1 Mile 4 and the only Group 1 winner in the field ( Criterium De Saint-cloud ). In that race he really picked up in the last furlong to go past the field to win comfortably. Second was Best Solution,3 rd Capri and 4th Douglas Mcarthur. Also further behind was Rekindling and Wings of Eagles.
After the race Fabre also entered him in the Irish Derby saying he would be going for that also after the English version.
In his trial this year he was second to Recoletos over 9F who looks a very, very good horse.
It’s always been a bit of an ambition to have a good win on the Derby and i’m up £70 whatever wins in the Derby and Oaks. Decision made Walgeist to win the Derby £70 @ 20’s NRNB
How this horse is sat at 20/1 when some others have not acheived anything like his form is beyond me.
I have a little e/w saver on Waldgeist myself Botchy, it was between himself and Best Solution but price was the deciding factor.
I thought Waldgeist needed the mud myself.
He struggled to get the better of Akihiro last time and that horse isn’t running here. The other curse may be Taj Mahal, who was 5th in that Saint-Cloud group 1.
I do agree that the horse is less exposed than the O’Brien horses he has already beaten and they are all within a few pounds of each other at a pretty mediocre level really.
I think Godophin will probably run Dubai Thunder here. I have reservations about the wisdom of that with regards to his long term career but they are an impatient bunch and they, understandably in my opinion, probably don’t think they have a great line up for the race.
Cracksman seems to be edging favouritism narrowly. I reckon Cliffs Of Moher needs to find about a stone from his last run to lift the race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Not convinced backing O’Briens in a long-term winning strategy so happy to leave his alone. I did a survey the other day which showed that if you backed every O’Brien runner in the last 11 runnings (and he’s had over 40 in that period) then you’d be -£35 to a level stake, even though he’s had three winners in that period. I would describe O’Brien’s approach to the derby as like using a sledgehammer to crack a peanut.
That’s an interesting stat Judge , but I don’t think it means all that much in itself, as it’s all about backing the right Ballydoyle horse. I’m sure the profit to level stakes would look a lot different if you bet on their perceived first-string, or even second-string e/w, rather than all 40 of their runners, who most of which are there only to do a job.
I’m not convinced that’s true, as Australia was 11-8 and Camelot an even more measly 8/13, the only one of their winners in the last few years which returned at a reasonable price was Ruler of the world, who was sent off at 7-1, however Battle of Marengo was shorter in the betting than he was.
Although if you percieve Cliffs of Moher as their clear first string in this years race he’s a perfectly reasonable 7-2, which at least gives decent profits, just not for me backing the O’Brien’s in this I’m afraid.
Reading the Tom Segal column in the weekender today (i was reading it in the supermarket, couldn’t be bothered to buy the paper as most of it is dross) he seemed very bullish on Cracksman and compared him to Troy.
Tom thinks if he can get rolling in the straight he could win by a long way. hyperbole or considered opinion? I guess we’ll soon find out.
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