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I am going on Breeding, career and visual impression.
I don’t know Steve, I will admit CoM does have slight questions hanging over his stamina in the breeding department, but not nearly as much as Cracksman I feel. By Frankel out of a Pivotal mare doesn’t scream 12f to me. As for visual impression, that is subjective I suppose, but I thought CoM was jaw-droppingly impressive beating Orderofthegarter, and his less impressive run in the Dee stakes can be forgiven due to how green he was, plus the seasonal debut factor that you have to apply to all of Ballydoyle’s. My thinking is that since he stayed on so well after being pushed from so far out, 12f should be well within his reach. I think the horse will come on a stone for that run, like he did last season.
Of course having said that, it’s a game of opinions and I wish you the best of luck with Cracksman.
The fact that so many are running with him suggests there is little confidence from the stable.
Sorry for the double post, but I just want to point out that Ballydoyle ran 4 when Australia won, 2 when Camelot won, 4 when Ruler of the World won and 4 when Pour Moi (Fabre trained but still Coolmore). That’s just going back 6 years, and if you look through their other wins in the Classics you will notice similar trends. This has always been Coolmore’s modus operandi, and I don’t think it is reflective of their belief in their number one. They are running 7 runners alongside Churchill in the Irish Guineas I believe, do you think that means they have little confidence in him?
Michael Stoute’s Mirage Dancer misses the race. Apparently he worked disappointingly yesterday.
Some others have vanished from the betting. Rivet, Titus and Akihiro probably some of the main ones.
I got a bit of stick here for ruling Akihiro out after his return to action this year. I’m just a realist, not trying to pi55 on anyone’s fire.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Michael Stoute’s Mirage Dancer misses the race. Apparently he worked disappointingly yesterday.
Some others have vanished from the betting. Rivet, Titus and Akihiro probably some of the main ones.
I got a bit of stick here for ruling Akihiro out after his return to action this year. I’m just a realist, not trying to pi55 on anyone’s fire.
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Maybe reading too much into this but it would seem that up until that gallop they were intending to run him – look forward to seeing him at Ascot, will be interesting to see who rides him as you would expect O’Brien will claim Moore – hopefully they don’t get Murphy again after his poor tactical ride at Chester.
Whether the race has any bearing on The Derby or not the Cocked Hat at Goodwood on Friday is a cracking race.
Khalidi, Fierce Impact, Monarchs Glen, Raheen House, Shymkent and The Grand Visir.
Slight preference for Raheen House but it’s a race that will take some winning.
Whether the race has any bearing on The Derby or not the Cocked Hat at Goodwood on Friday is a cracking race.
Khalidi, Fierce Impact, Monarchs Glen, Raheen House, Shymkent and The Grand Visir.
Slight preference for Raheen House but it’s a race that will take some winning.
I am a bit surprised that Timeform are going with The Grand Visir in their preview for the Cocked Hat. His win looks nothing special and is a good way behind some of them here. Frankie is on Khalidi, rather than Monarch’s Glen and I suppose Permian going on to win the Dante may have swayed him towards the Fielden winner. The Fielden hasn’t worked out well mind you.
Timeform only give Raheen House three stars in their preview but his latest run, when splitting Shutter Speed and Enable has been solidly advertised by both fillies since, Shutter Speed landing the Musidora despite hating the ground and Enable won the Cheshire Oaks, sealing her place as 2nd Fav for the Oaks with stablemate Shutter Speed heading to France for the Prix Diane.
I’ll wait to see the betting but Raheen House looks pretty solid. The downside is Brian Meehan’s form, 0/19 this past fortnight, but he has been running a lot of rank outsiders during that period.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Re- Cliffs Of Moher
Galileo offspring out of Dansili mares (since 2005 at least) – there haven’t been many (nine) and those that there have been haven’t been that great. In fact Cliffs Of Moher already has the best RPR. The dam, Wave, won over 5F, the second dam was third in a Prix de Diane.
I understand the doubts but Galileo is very capable of imparting significant stamina into most pedigrees. The way Cliffs Of Moher finished at Chester, when likely to have been some way off his peak, strongly suggested to me that the trip will not be an issue for him.Re- Cliffs Of Moher
Galileo offspring out of Dansili mares (since 2005 at least) – there haven’t been many (nine) and those that there have been haven’t been that great. In fact Cliffs Of Moher already has the best RPR. The dam, Wave, won over 5F, the second dam was third in a Prix de Diane.
I understand the doubts but Galileo is very capable of imparting significant stamina into most pedigrees. The way Cliffs Of Moher finished at Chester, when likely to have been some way off his peak, strongly suggested to me that the trip will not be an issue for him.That has been true and Aidan takes every chance he can to repeat the fact. However, I do think he was overstating it just a bit the other week, when he stated “Now, listen now, these Galileos will stay as far as you want them to stay”
Derby and then on to Royal Ascot for a Gold Cup double then
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Shame about Titus, I think he’s an excellent colt in the making…Wrld did mention in a stable tour on the spring that he’d had a setback but I was hoping he could make it, though would’ve been tough without a prep run…maybe he’ll be seen out later in the year.
I may now side with Venice Beach who was 2nd in Titus’s maiden win and has obviously improved since when winning at Chester. I can see him being up with the pace and has a good each way chance if lasting the final few furlongs…
D-day today and I have gone for Cliffs Of Moher (9/2) and Venice Beach (20/1 & 16/1 each-way).
Cliffs just seemed too obvious in the end to pass up and if I came back from holiday and found him splattered across the front of the Racing Post I’d be gutted. I was a fan of Venice Beach after Chester and felt he was ludicrously over-priced so went in at 20s and again at 16s each-way. He’ll definitely stay and this half-brother to Arc winner Danedream could improve for racing just as she did.
Instructions have been left for Racing UK to be recorded next Friday and Saturday, there’ll be hell to pay if it isn’t!
Good luck all with you’re selections, I know a lot are Cracksman supporters. Hopefully we’ll get a really impressive performance no matter who’s victorious.
Yucatan was the one O’Brien horse that nobody seemed to fancy. His only win was by a head from Taj Mahal, the colt who seems the weak link running through everyone’s form. From Eminent, Orderofthegarter, Waldgeist and Lancaster Bomber, you will find Taj Mahal in there, stinking the form out.
Taj Mahal was 3rd in the Group 3 Killavullan at Leopardstown last season and not one runner has placed in 8 attempts since. Taj Mahal has had one win in 10 starts, that was off 86 in a Dundalk Handicap. Yet, placed results suggest Taj Mahal is a 108 rated horse.
Pardon me for suggesting that the mark he has is rubbish but it might perhaps put it into perspective when you think that Derby joint favourite Cliffs Of Moher is rated 2 lbs behind Taj Mahal on 106.
Taj Mahal was recently downgraded to 105, after getting beaten at odds of 4/7 in a four runner affair. I believe the colt is a clear example of the handicappers making an absolute arse of it when assessing these young horses.
I have had plenty of gyp on here for disagreeing with the handicappers. It’s almost as if the handicappers are infallible. My input has been barked down because I am not a “Professional”
Handicapping horses is not easy, it’s an inexact science but the nature of it means that those assessing it will make mistakes. I am only trying to draw attention to scenarios where I think it is worth questioning if the ratings are truly accurate.
For me, it was crazy to see Taj Mahal holding a higher rating than Cliffs Of Moher, as we were approaching the Derby. Even Ray Charles could have seen that the figures were bollocks but I get treated like a pariah for stating the truth.
Dubai Thunder got a Racing Post Rating of 102 for winning a maiden on a ploughed field the other week. That leaves him just 4 lbs behind Cliffs Of Moher on the latter’s official mark. Surely that leaves Cliffs Of Moher fans cacking themselves at 4/1, when the Godolphin horse is 20/1, yet so close in the ratings?
Permian is now rated 113 and Cracksman has beaten him. If we assume Cracksman has improved, he’s surely the horse to beat?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think this Derby is one of the most open I’ve seen in recent years, there are plenty
who have chances, but no “monster” this year. Cracksman is unbeaten, and good horse as
he is, I’m not convinced his Derby Trial warrants his 4/1 at the head of the market.
Equally Cliffs Of Moher could be very good, his run in his maiden at Leopardstown last
October was impressive, but his Dee Stakes doesn’t leave much between him and Permian,
although of the two he possibly could improve after just 2 runs. Eminent was disappointing
in the 2000 Guineas, although there may be excuses for him as he didn’t perhaps have the
run of the race and perhaps it came soon enough after the Craven. I’d love to see him win
for all the Frankel fans in here (Jonibale and Jac step forward), and if there’s a possible
star it could be him, but, and I hate to say it, there are question marks. So after viewing
as many reruns as I could stomach, I’m giving a tentative vote to CAPRI at
25/1 with Bet365. Now I’m aware that there hasn’t been a winner of the Derby priced over 7/1
this century, but I don’t expect him to be that price next Saturday. We’ve already seen a plunge
on the O’Brien third string in the 1000 Guineas with Winter who was also about 25/1 behind
Rhododendron and Hydrangea the week before. Capri is one horse to me that looks like he will
improve stepped up to 12f. His 3 wins at 2 were decent, particularly in the Group 2 Juddmonte
Beresford Stakes over 8f where he looked best at the finish. His return this year doesn’t look
good on paper, but if you watch the race, he started poorly and was stuck at the back, even
having to take a pull to keep out of bother. With 3f to go he was still plumb last but finished
well for 4th, the result wasn’t as bad as it sounds. Again, 3rd last time in the Derrinstown
Stud Derby Trial at Leopardstown doesn’t do much for his CV, he didn’t quite have the extra
gear but kept on well going down a hd and shd. I think he looks like he needs that extra couple
of furlongs, and he’s tough into the bargain. In an open Derby, he’s worth a shout at those oddsVenice beach for me as he definitely will see out the distance and will handle the track. With so many question marks over the front three or four in the betting I think he looks a shoo in to be placed at worst. Whoever seamie h decides to ride should be backed and I’m sure it will be Venice beach. Goods rides for the other ballydoyle jocks and with possibly 6 running maybe pdbeggy or donnacha obrien could go close to Epsom glory. Would love the likes of pd beggy to win the race. BTW I see Billy Lee is riding for Joseph when his brother isn’t available. Could be a jockey to follow.
Best Solution @13 and Permian @15 seem overpriced to me, and much better bets than the Ballydoyle horses similarly priced.
I’ve been adding to my position this week on my two.
But I’ve left Cliffs Of Moher alone (happy with 10s but not playing at 4/1) but instead going in again at 40s on Glencadem Glory – my St Leger horse.
If they can sort him out at the stalls, which they’ve gradually been doing, the stuff finish at Epsom will massively benefit him as he flies home late.
After much umming and aahing I have come down on the side of EMINENT. My first bet on the derby placed today, £50 on at 7-1.
Obviously you would have to forgive him his last run but think there was some valid reasons for that display and his craven run was all about stamina
I also loved the way he travelled the other day in his breakfast with the stars workout
Not convinced backing O’Briens in a long-term winning strategy so happy to leave his alone. I did a survey the other day which showed that if you backed every O’Brien runner in the last 11 runnings (and he’s had over 40 in that period) then you’d be -£35 to a level stake, even though he’s had three winners in that period. I would describe O’Brien’s approach to the derby as like using a sledgehammer to crack a peanut.
Obviously have to totally respect “the master” steve’s tip cracksman, however I don’t think he’ll as travel as well as eminent, and I think that could be decisive.
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