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I never pay much attention to racecourse gallops. It always sends mixed messages to me. I wouldn’t want my horse showing anything flash in the gallop. I prefer them to do it in the race itself.
You would generally expect a miler to look slicker in its work than a staying horse anyway.
Martyn Meade seems confident this is Eminent’s trip. That seems odd and you wouldn’t be having a tilt at a Guineas if you felt your horse needed a mile and a half. I find it incongruous that a horse who managed to set such a fast time in the Craven would be crying out for a mile and a half. The time of the Craven was taken by Eminent supporters and general racing fans as a sign that the horse had the speed for the Guineas.
The Guineas time was 1.46 sec slower than the Craven. The explanation given was that there was not enough pace. Given that Eminent had clocked a faster time in the Craven, then physically speaking, what is there to prevent him doing so again? Was the ground a but slower? The theory is that if Eminent had run exactly the same race in the Guineas, as he did in the Craven, he could clock the same time. You can even argue that he may have been capable of faster, as a colt having only his third start and being capable of quite a bit of improvement.
There is quite a bit of mythology in racing theories and some believe different things to others. One thing is clear and that is that not many horses fast enough to win a Guineas, go on to prove that they can win at Epsom as well. If we look at Camelot, who won both, we see a colt who won a Guineas run in conditions that meant his winning time was 6 seconds slower than the time that won this year’s renewal. It was not speed that won him that Guineas.
I think Eminent is too skinny at 7/1. He has a chance but there are too many asks for any value at those odds in my opinion.
Steve, I value your arguments and don’t disagree, but non of us can look in to a trainers head, as to why his comments differs. My mornings observations was exactly how you describe your preferred prerace work “I wouldn’t want my horse showing anything flash in the gallop. I prefer them to do it in the race itself.”
Cracksman and his lead went a fair gallop on the bridle, but Cracksman was asked gently for a bit and only went a couple of lengths clear. His lead still on restraint.
Eminent had a hotter lead, but didn’t flick an ear, a steadier pace in the gallop but shortly showed a nice turn of foot passing easy (leaning), was eased and “lost” the work at the line.
Best Wishes
SilkInteresting to note that Crowley said Eminent enjoyed the easier ground and said he thinks he is better with a little bit of cut in the ground – similar conditions on the day will making coming down the hill a bit easier to deal with.
I hear a lot a people starting to doubt whether Cracksman can confirm the Epsom run with Permian, which I find odd to say the least – people bang on about how much Permian has improved since that race and yet seem to conveniently gloss over the fact that Cracksman was having only his second lifetime start and his first run of the season. Permian was not only race fit but also had a massive advantage experience wise (Epsom being his 8th career start) added to the fact that he had the run of the race in which he got first first run on Cracksman (whilst he was hemmed in behind horses) and yet he still got run down. Given just the normal level of improvement one could expect from a horse in both race fitness and experience (Gosden’s comments indicates that Cracksman has done much more than that), I don’t see how Permian can reverse that form especially with another 2F to travel.
Being that Cracksman doesn’t seem to have Frankel’s fiery nature, one would hope that Dettori can get a position in the first 6 or 8 centre to outside to enable him to wind up that big stride and have a free run down the outside up the straight – if he gets himself into the same position as he did in the trial (with the prospect that there are likely to be that many more horses around him and the fact that he doesn’t do anything very quickly) he might not be able to extracate himself and then get organised in time to reel the leaders back.
I can very easily see this race turning into a bit of a rough one with the number of runners likely to show up and it could well be that we get some hard luck/trouble in running stories after the race.
Interesting to note that Crowley said Eminent enjoyed the easier ground and said he thinks he is better with a little bit of cut in the ground – similar conditions on the day will making coming down the hill a bit easier to deal with.
I hear a lot a people starting to doubt whether Cracksman can confirm the Epsom run with Permian, which I find odd to say the least – people bang on about how much Permian has improved since that race and yet seem to conveniently gloss over the fact that Cracksman was having only his second lifetime start and his first run of the season. Permian was not only race fit but also had a massive advantage experience wise (Epsom being his 8th career start) added to the fact that he had the run of the race in which he got first first run on Cracksman (whilst he was hemmed in behind horses) and yet he still got run down. Given just the normal level of improvement one could expect from a horse in both race fitness and experience (Gosden’s comments indicates that Cracksman has done much more than that), I don’t see how Permian can reverse that form especially with another 2F to travel.
Being that Cracksman doesn’t seem to have Frankel’s fiery nature, one would hope that Dettori can get a position in the first 6 or 8 centre to outside to enable him to wind up that big stride and have a free run down the outside up the straight – if he gets himself into the same position as he did in the trial (with the prospect that there are likely to be that many more horses around him and the fact that he doesn’t do anything very quickly) he might not be able to extracate himself and then get organised in time to reel the leaders back.
I can very easily see this race turning into a bit of a rough one with the number of runners likely to show up and it could well be that we get some hard luck/trouble in running stories after the race.
Some very good points there, LD. Given the number of horses Godolphin and Ballydoyle intend to run, it certainly makes you wonder whether team tactics could play a big part (intentionally hemming in Cracksman wouldn’t be too hard).
I never pay much attention to racecourse gallops. It always sends mixed messages to me. I wouldn’t want my horse showing anything flash in the gallop. I prefer them to do it in the race itself.
You would generally expect a miler to look slicker in its work than a staying horse anyway.
Martyn Meade seems confident this is Eminent’s trip. That seems odd and you wouldn’t be having a tilt at a Guineas if you felt your horse needed a mile and a half. I find it incongruous that a horse who managed to set such a fast time in the Craven would be crying out for a mile and a half. The time of the Craven was taken by Eminent supporters and general racing fans as a sign that the horse had the speed for the Guineas.
The Guineas time was 1.46 sec slower than the Craven. The explanation given was that there was not enough pace. Given that Eminent had clocked a faster time in the Craven, then physically speaking, what is there to prevent him doing so again? Was the ground a but slower? The theory is that if Eminent had run exactly the same race in the Guineas, as he did in the Craven, he could clock the same time. You can even argue that he may have been capable of faster, as a colt having only his third start and being capable of quite a bit of improvement.
There is quite a bit of mythology in racing theories and some believe different things to others. One thing is clear and that is that not many horses fast enough to win a Guineas, go on to prove that they can win at Epsom as well. If we look at Camelot, who won both, we see a colt who won a Guineas run in conditions that meant his winning time was 6 seconds slower than the time that won this year’s renewal. It was not speed that won him that Guineas.
I think Eminent is too skinny at 7/1. He has a chance but there are too many asks for any value at those odds in my opinion.
Steve, I value your arguments and don’t disagree, but non of us can look in to a trainers head, as to why his comments differs. My mornings observations was exactly how you describe your preferred prerace work “I wouldn’t want my horse showing anything flash in the gallop. I prefer them to do it in the race itself.”
Cracksman and his lead went a fair gallop on the bridle, but Cracksman was asked gently for a bit and only went a couple of lengths clear. His lead still on restraint.
Eminent had a hotter lead, but didn’t flick an ear, a steadier pace in the gallop but shortly showed a nice turn of foot passing easy (leaning), was eased and “lost” the work at the line.We all see it differently when reading races and workouts.
I just prefer not to read much into racecourse gallops and take too much meaning from them.
John Gosden said that Cracksman was eased off earlier because he didn’t want to ease the horse when travelling downhill.
Looking at Eminent, the only horses he beat home in the Guineas were priced 100/1, 33/1, 33/1 and 100/1. Effectively he was placed last of the half dozen deemed to have a realistic chance on the day. Overall, for me, he made a disappointing fist of trying to win the Guineas, pace issue aside. Even if you prognosticate on the outcome off a faster pace, you can argue that Barney Roy and Al Wukair would have been better served.
Not saying Emininent can’t win it but I think his odds are cramped.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
For me Eminent has the best chance of the Frankel’s. Yes he was only 6th in the Guineas but he wasn’t beaten far by good horses and I think he will appreciate the extra distance. Watching him today, he moved beautifully and he has that lovely big stride which will serve him well down the long straight. I agree that it could be a rough race but I see him going close with a clear run. I rather think he and Cracksman have the odds the wrong way round….
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
O’Brien may run SEVEN!
A sure sign he’s actually got NONE.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
For me Eminent has the best chance of the Frankel’s. Yes he was only 6th in the Guineas but he wasn’t beaten far by good horses and I think he will appreciate the extra distance. Watching him today, he moved beautifully and he has that lovely big stride which will serve him well down the long straight. I agree that it could be a rough race but I see him going close with a clear run. I rather think he and Cracksman have the odds the wrong way round….
Couldn’t have said it better Joni that lovely big stride will see Eminent home from Cracksman who could possibly become unbalanced round Tattenham Corner if forced wide with that leg action but certain he will be finishing off with a blistering speed down the home straight and we could be set for a Frankel 1-2 in this years Derby
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...At the moment my only dread is that Churchill runs and wins. I ventured into laying a horse for the first time without already backing it previously. Certainly going to be the last time i do it ( AP anyway ), he is still bloody entered !
Hopefully he is just there as back up in case of an injury. Saying that who could he be back up for? It could even be for the French horse.
You could make a case for at least 10 in the race. Terribly difficult race this one to pick the winner
Cracksman’s stride may look very ungainly but he looked pretty well balanced to me as they quicked down the Hill in the Trial, as I said in an earlier post his problems will come if Dettori tries to put him in the same inside position as he did that day – just hope the also rans are out of the way when the race hots up but I rather fear they will be tripping over themselves coming into the straight.
At the moment my only dread is that Churchill runs and wins. I ventured into laying a horse for the first time without already backing it previously. Certainly going to be the last time i do it ( AP anyway ), he is still bloody entered !
Hopefully he is just there as back up in case of an injury. Saying that who could he be back up for? It could even be for the French horse.
You could make a case for at least 10 in the race. Terribly difficult race this one to pick the winner
Churchill won’t run. He’s not even quoted now.
You can put a pen through most of Aiden’s the same with Godolphin. The very fact that they are considering sending maiden winner Dubai Thunder tells you that they know they haven’t got anything here.
For me, Best Solution is the worst value in the race and then Eminent.
Cliffs Of Moher won’t quite get home and the form looks nothing special anyway.
Cracksman to swoop and win by 2 lengths. If he’s improved, he may just win this with a surprisingly low rating.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Still waiting to hear a yay or nay for Mirage Dancer as I think he could be a real player if they do let him take his chance – don’t think Stoute has made any comment about him like he did with Crystal Ocean and I am sure the Prince would like to have a runner in the race if he could and he is still around 16s (12s in places) on oddschecker.
Not quite as confident with Cliffs Of Moher now even though I’m delighted with my price @ 10s.
I’ve also done a small bet on my big st leger fancy antepost Glencadem Glory @ 33s
And a saver play before the Dante on Benbatl @ 33s
Main hope relies on Cliffs Of Moher but I’d be happy enough with either of the last two. My main hope of the race would be to see Glencadem glory absolutely fly home for a never nearer second behind COM.
Ideally.
Cliffs Of Moher won’t quite get home and the form looks nothing special anyway.
Not sure where you’re getting that from Steve, there’s more to suggest he gets the trip than your fancy Cracksman. I think anyone with CoM at double figure prices should be very content with their position, none of the other trials have thrown up what looks like the Derby winner, and those who we had already seen have so many questions to answer stamina wise. Especially the two Frankels.
Cliffs Of Moher won’t quite get home and the form looks nothing special anyway.
Not sure where you’re getting that from Steve, there’s more to suggest he gets the trip than your fancy Cracksman. I think anyone with CoM at double figure prices should be very content with their position, none of the other trials have thrown up what looks like the Derby winner, and those who we had already seen have so many questions to answer stamina wise. Especially the two Frankels.
I am going on Breeding, career and visual impression. The fact that so many are running with him suggests there is little confidence from the stable.
I’m only giving my opinion, if people are happy with their odds, then that’s perfectly understandable.
I am happy with 14/1 on Cracksman. If Gosden says he will stay, that’s good enough for me. The horse is laid back, travels calmly and has shown he can catch a good contender in a manner that strongly suggested he would have beaten him further had the race been longer.
That’s good enough for me. I am a lot more confident about Cracksman than I was with Wings Of Desire last season, when I had to select him by default really.
We’ll see how they go but I think Cliffs Of Moher won a poor trial and he didn’t look short of pace over 7F last year, blitzing away from a long way out. Not many Dee Stakes winners go on to win the Derby either.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Dee Stakes is not bad as a trial with two recent winners. Well recent compared to the last winner of the Epsom Trial which was Blue Peter in 1939.
Dee Stakes is not bad as a trial with two recent winners. Well recent compared to the last winner of the Epsom Trial which was Blue Peter in 1939.
Dee Stakes is not bad as a trial with two recent winners. Well recent compared to the last winner of the Epsom Trial which was Blue Peter in 1939.
I don’t think many decent horses go to the Epsom Trial, compared to the Dee Stakes.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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