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The other obvious question with Eminent is Epsom itself.
Martyn Meade’s colt has run three times, all over a straight mile at Newmarket. He’s never taken a corner in his life (A bit like Neil Lennon there)
How is this big, gangly looking sort likely to cope with turns and camber, will he be able to hold a good position?
I think he’s a horse who takes a good bit of winding up to reach top speed. If he gets into any trouble it will be very hard to get rolling again. I think it’s enough of a concern to warrant his odds being bigger than they are currently. History is littered with colts who don’t act properly in the Derby.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Many problems accessing the site for me over past 3 weeks (still ongoing) but after reading the Thread had to come here and post in support of Eminent and Martyn Meade and their quest to win this year’s Derby.
Always think that the 2000 Guineas comes to quickly for winners of the Craven Stakes and Eminent gave his all and more that day, it was an impressive performance and I got the feeling he was not quite over it come Guineas day as he was not as outstanding in the pre parade and paddock as he had been for the Craven, I think it might have been mentioned he looked tired that day,I think he was and things were not quite right.
Certain we will see a different horse come Derby day now he has had time to get back into condition and I’m really looking forward to it.
Only ever been one horse for me this season and taking a chance on
Eminent to prove his doubters wrong and win The Derby.
Jac
Good luck to everyone and their selections..
Keep calm and carry on
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Regarding Dubai Thunder and the worth of his form. The horse who finished 4th in Dubai Thunder’s race was Tuff Rock. He lined up 33/1 after being a 20/1 shot behind John Gosden’s Crowned Eagle on his debut. 11th of 17 that day, Tuff Rock was beaten 12 and a half lengths by winner Crowned Eagle. Dubai Thunder has beaten Tuff Rock by a length further on his debut.
On the downside, Tuff Rock came here rated 56 on RPR. Crowned Eagle is progressive and won a handicap easily next time off a lenient looking mark of 85 when 6/4 Fav.
It all seems miles away from the Derby to me anyway but people are free to feel differently of course. I am just trying to put an early evaluation on the field beaten by Dubai Thunder on the soft. He could obviously be anything after one start but Godolphin are usually pretty good at getting them fit for debut.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
That’s a pretty sensible round-up there Steve, I can’t find much I don’t really agree with other than I have my doubts about Permian back at Epsom where I’m not convinced he really handled the track brilliantly. He didn’t handle Bath that well either and the fact his most impressive performances have come round York and Newmarket perhaps lend fact to the theory. But I’m not 100% sure and you’re welcome to bring me up on that if it sounds a poor theory.
Why do you think he didn’t handle the track? He was at a disadvantage being forced to race wide of Cracksman and then he rolled towards the rail which is pretty much the norm at Epsom. Looking at it again he has taken three lengths out of Cracksman and had the jock held on a little longer I think he would probably have won. He might have been better suited by Newmarket and York but it is just as likely those wins were a natural progression.
As to which Ballydoyle runners might be the sacrificial lambs? That’s a very good question, Pilgarlic.
I have a hunch it might be Capri but, as you suggest, I think The Anvil is the obvious one.
in terms of what will be the ‘protected’ Ballydoyle runners I think they will be
1. Cliffs Of Moher
2. Venice Beach
3. Douglas Macarthur
4. YucatanIn that order
I think too many people have not heard of the saying “agree to disagree”.
Calm down Calm down!!
And does anyone think Douglas Macarthur is overpriced??
I agree that you agree we should agree to disagree.
And.. no. Haha
In a semi aftertiming post, I confess I have Douglas Macarthur backed for the Derby in an ante post double with Churchill for the Guineas.
I had sort of written it off after Newmarket last autumn, although I did think the run at Saint Cloud gave a little bit of hope. Ballysax & Derrinstown runs have been small steps forward and whilst I wouldn’t back him again now at 20/1, I am quietly excited that I have a shot at the small stakes / big price double.
He is not that big but is well balanced and seems to have some tactical pace. My only chance is I guess a below average year (entirely plausible) and about a 10lb step forward for the extra 2 furlongs (less likely) and finally the run of the race.
One thing I don’t think will happen (but I have seen it suggested) is that Douglas Macarthur will act as a pacemaker of some sort. He is not owned by the traditional lads group but by another syndicate include some Coolmore partners but also with some potential long term external partners.
Anyway good luck to Dougie on the Downs…he will probably need a fair bit.Cliffs Of Moher looks a great bet at 4/1 (nearly 9/2 on BF exchange). O’Brien had a certain something in the way he was mentioning him yesterday when being interviewed by Gary O’Brien on ATR. Describing him as ‘the Dee Stakes horse’ he said ‘He was a little bit, he was a good bit behind really, if he won we were going to be delighted. He was very raw through the race Ryan said, but he went to the line which was very good. He started off, he’s done one little bit since he came back and we were very happy with that, he’ll have a very busy week next week now and if that goes well we’ll look forward to it’.
In O’Brien speak…..GET ON!
Well done to those on at big prices.
Cliffs Of Moher looks a great bet at 4/1 (nearly 9/2 on BF exchange). O’Brien had a certain something in the way he was mentioning him yesterday when being interviewed by Gary O’Brien on ATR. Describing him as ‘the Dee Stakes horse’ he said ‘He was a little bit, he was a good bit behind really, if he won we were going to be delighted. He was very raw through the race Ryan said, but he went to the line which was very good. He started off, he’s done one little bit since he came back and we were very happy with that, he’ll have a very busy week next week now and if that goes well we’ll look forward to it’.
In O’Brien speak…..GET ON!
Well done to those on at big prices.
I wouldn’t trust a word Aiden O’Brien says Dave,Michael Tabor summed him up when he said ‘Aiden was right most of the time”…That in Coolmore talk means he makes some shocking decisions too..I will never forget Aiden telling the world One cool Cat was the best horse he’d ever trained and he was a Donkey,he has said the same since about umpteen horses..The way he used Hydrangea as pacemaker for Winter stunk,his comments about Ryan being delighted with rhododendrun coming 2nd summed him up perfectly.As for Churchill still not being confirmed a Non-runner for the Derby is only because he’s worried anything happens to Cliffs of Moher who imo is nothing more than another US Army Ranger anyway.Yucatan,Capri,The Anvil,Venice Beach and Wings of Eagles are so closely matched a Whisker wouldn’t seperate them…No the only horse I would back from Ballydoyle is Douglas Macarthur because he has to run on his own merits for his owners.
Not looking good for my hope Titus, a 3 figure price on the exchanges suggesting he’s unlikely to take part…heard nothing from connections of late regarding his current wellbeing either…shame as Venice Beach has franked the form nicely.
I have my doubts about Permian back at Epsom where I’m not convinced he really handled the track brilliantly.
I have watched the Epsom race back a few times Charles. I don’t see a lot there to worry about to be honest with you. I dug the Bath race up and had a look at that one several times. Coming to the 3 pole at Bath the jockey seems pretty confident on Permian but the race gets messy for him after that.
Permian seems a little wayward and I am not sure how much of it was the track, how much of it might have been the Firm ground and how much perhaps some remaining inexperience.
Permian at Bath video:- http://www.attheraces.com/atrplayer-replay-popup/VOD/986866
If you watch the ATR video of the race and wind the video on to the 2 minute mark, you can watch the head on as they approach the 2F pole. Permian comes under pressure and the jockey switches his whip to the right hand. As pressure is applied, Permian heads towards Mister Manduro in the yellow colours.
Permian ends up right behind Mister Manduro and it looks briefly, whether by accident or design, that Permian might make his challenge on the inside. However, he is soon switched to the outside, but in doing so he is now close to the finishing Hushood, the ultimate winner. The camera angle then changes slightly and it is hard to see whether Hushood actually touches Permian, or simply intimidates him, but, whatever the reason, Permian ends up heading away from Hushood, back towards Mister Manduro.
If you wind the video on to 3m 40s you can watch the final 2F from a different angle. Again we see Permian threatening to come inside Mister Manduro in the yellow colours but this time you can see that as he heads outside again he makes contact with Hushood, possibly twice in quick succession, and then lugs right back across to Mister Manduro.
In the end Richard Kingscote seems to try to switch hands again a couple of times, seemingly unsure as to what to do for the best. It was a messy finish to the race and I strongly suspect Permian would have won had he kept straight.
It’s a tough one to call, I think some of Permian’s problems that day were circumstantial and maybe he was feeling the firm surface on a track where I personally never bet. It would certainly be a worry to see that carry on in the Derby but for me Permian was nowhere near as wayward at Epsom. Looking back at that race, I always get the impression Cracksman will not quite get up and I think the inexperienced Gosden colt did well to get there in the circumstances. The son of Frankel is a lot more substantial colt than Permian, a bigger chest and neck on him and you can’t deny that he finished the race the better in prevailing.
Logically the Frankel colt is open to more improvement, particularly give his trainer’s methodology with Classic prospects.
I expect both to be involved but would feel that if Cracksman has come forward he will probably win this Derby.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Regarding Dubai Thunder and the worth of his form. The horse who finished 4th in Dubai Thunder’s race was Tuff Rock. He lined up 33/1 after being a 20/1 shot behind John Gosden’s Crowned Eagle on his debut. 11th of 17 that day, Tuff Rock was beaten 12 and a half lengths by winner Crowned Eagle. Dubai Thunder has beaten Tuff Rock by a length further on his debut.
On the downside, Tuff Rock came here rated 56 on RPR. Crowned Eagle is progressive and won a handicap easily next time off a lenient looking mark of 85 when 6/4 Fav.
It all seems miles away from the Derby to me anyway but people are free to feel differently of course. I am just trying to put an early evaluation on the field beaten by Dubai Thunder on the soft. He could obviously be anything after one start but Godolphin are usually pretty good at getting them fit for debut.
Regarding Tuff Rock Steve….there was a fair bit of yard confidence the other day…soft ground being key for the horse…he was readily available at three figures the night before…I had a small go on him at 80/1 and he was very well supported late on into 33’s…typical of my luck that he ended up getting run out of a place by his lesser fancied stablemate!
Still, the winner of that race has no chance n the Derby!
Cracksman wins it….
As regards Permian’s run at Bath it would only be of any/real significance if the Derby was actually run at Bath and the horse hadn’t run three times since. He wouldn’t even be running based on that performance.
‘Breakfast with the Stars’ this morning at Epsom featuring our boy Cracksman. Not sure anyone’s likely to learn anything at all from it, but fingers crossed nothing goes awry.
Re: Permian.
You’re most likely spot on Steve – maybe I’m looking too much into that run at Bath, I was there that day up in the stand and my initial reaction through my binoculars was that he was all over the shot and likewise felt he might have won at Epsom but for the dual change of legs.
For a horse with so much speed it also seems to me that he might not be able to perform to as high a level over a mile and a half.
Watching BWTS, I much preferred the work done by Eminent rather than that of Cracksman. Eminent oozes class. Just saying, even though Gosden sounds confident for Cracksman in todays R post. A place bet on Best Solution, could well be worth while. It was a true run Trial, maybe just not good enough.
For win I go with Eminent, Frankel plays a factor in the choice and TAPK’s assesment of Cliffs of Moher as just another US Army Ranger
I’ll back that Cracksman too, just to make sure I don’t miss out on a Frankel winning the DerbyBest Wishes
SilkI don’t think two horses swinging very wide into the straight tells you a great deal.
I don’t often agree with Mark Johnston but I think it is a fair point that he makes when he suggests it isn’t a given that Cracksman will confirm the form with Permian. Permian has improved since, we don’t know about Cracksman. It is still early days for the Frankel offspring but based on the story so far they have been more precocious than expected but several have pretty quickly seemed to hit a plateau or even regressed.
I never pay much attention to racecourse gallops. It always sends mixed messages to me. I wouldn’t want my horse showing anything flash in the gallop. I prefer them to do it in the race itself.
You would generally expect a miler to look slicker in its work than a staying horse anyway.
Martyn Meade seems confident this is Eminent’s trip. That seems odd and you wouldn’t be having a tilt at a Guineas if you felt your horse needed a mile and a half. I find it incongruous that a horse who managed to set such a fast time in the Craven would be crying out for a mile and a half. The time of the Craven was taken by Eminent supporters and general racing fans as a sign that the horse had the speed for the Guineas.
The Guineas time was 1.46 sec slower than the Craven. The explanation given was that there was not enough pace. Given that Eminent had clocked a faster time in the Craven, then physically speaking, what is there to prevent him doing so again? Was the ground a but slower? The theory is that if Eminent had run exactly the same race in the Guineas, as he did in the Craven, he could clock the same time. You can even argue that he may have been capable of faster, as a colt having only his third start and being capable of quite a bit of improvement.
There is quite a bit of mythology in racing theories and some believe different things to others. One thing is clear and that is that not many horses fast enough to win a Guineas, go on to prove that they can win at Epsom as well. If we look at Camelot, who won both, we see a colt who won a Guineas run in conditions that meant his winning time was 6 seconds slower than the time that won this year’s renewal. It was not speed that won him that Guineas.
I think Eminent is too skinny at 7/1. He has a chance but there are too many asks for any value at those odds in my opinion.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Jac
I’ll back that Cracksman too, just to make sure I don’t miss out on a Frankel winning the Derby- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.