- This topic has 640 replies, 58 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 5 months ago by
.
- Posts
Best Solution could prove to be exactly that. If you take at face value the claims of connections that he simply did not act at Meydan then he should surely be shorter for the Derby.
He’ll be about the most experienced in the field and seems thoroughly game and genuine. He’ll stay too.
Where is the scope though Joe? The horse was rated 111 last October, he is rated 113 now. Surely others offer more room for improvement?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I come on here and provide solid evidence Eminent will stay. Joliff tells me “he won’t stay…end of”, then calls me “patronising”! LOL
Then Steve says a two-time winner over 1m is a non-stayer of 1 mile, and that it would be stupid to run a once-raced horse in the Derby. I point out such a horse won the Derby just over 20 years ago + nearly again 11 years ago and I get told “don’t be a dick”
I get better discussions on Twitter, and that’s saying something.
Enjoy tickling each other’s balls
What a waste of oxygen. A non-entity attention seeker. No pride in the forum from the moderators yet again.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
They might well, Steve, but I think it’s in the price. COM will definitely come on a fair bit but BS looked a million miles more professional than COM did.
Had BS not run at Meydan then he’d look more progressive.
Worth bearing in mind I am saying all this from the viewpoint of a casual onlooker, little more, as my interest in the Flat is minimal.
Eminent won’t get the trip in my opinion. I don’t think he even got home in the Guineas to be honest.
LOL
The horse definitely weakened in the Guineas. I am sure individual sectional timing would prove that. Laugh if you wish. He won’t last 12F
So first a 2-time winner over 1 mile is a non-stayer of 1 mile, now all horses who ever weakened in races ever did so because they didn’t stay.
LOL
Is this the standard of debate on here now?
For what’s it’s worth, I do agree with you that Eminent stays a mile definetely. Not sure about a Derby horse though.
I’m still sitting nicely on Cliffs Of Moher at 10s
I think Permian is the most solid each-way play and by some distance. The Dante run might well be good enough to get the place and there are grounds to believe that he might be able to better that performance. The extra distance should help and I would be pretty confident he won despite the softer surface at York. The only possible negative I can see is the relatively short recovery time between York and Epsom. I am not too bothered by the million runs or the north never sending out the winner statistics.
I definitely think he should be shorter than both Eminent and Best Solution. Although Best Solution won his trial reasonably well I don’t think it was a strong race. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Craven proves to be Eminent’s Derby. In media terms Meade is massively overrated. Eminent blew out in the Classic, Aclaim bombed on Saturday and he hasn’t managed to get any sort of win out of Irish Rookie since she was classic placed.
Several of the others are not going to run. It looks now as if Cliffs Of Moher is the Coolmore preferred but there was nothing in the Chester run to frighten the opposition. He surely needs to improve significantly on that performance to justify favouritism. Cracksman beat Permian but the runner up might well have progressed and looks the more straightforward of the two so 5/1 against 16/1 cannot be a fair reflection of their chances.
Anyhow, I would say it would be utter stupidity to take a promising horse and pitch it into a Derby on second start.
Steve’s clearly never heard of Lammtarra or the unlucky Hala Bek
Don’t be a dick.
Steve – Having a dig at the moderation of the forum is a cheap shot (or a daft one) when you’re the one calling people ‘a dick’ for pointing out the obvious flaw in your argument.
Anyhow, I would say it would be utter stupidity to take a promising horse and pitch it into a Derby on second start.
Steve’s clearly never heard of Lammtarra or the unlucky Hala Bek
Don’t be a dick.
Steve – Having a dig at the moderation of the forum is a cheap shot (or a daft one) when you’re the one calling people ‘a dick’ for pointing out the obvious flaw in your argument.
No it’s not cheap. David
On another thread over on the Horse Racing section someone was urging another member to commit suicide. That’s a lifetime ban offence on every forum I have ever been on. To let that slide is unforgivable in my opinion. Where is the protection for other forum members and the pride in the forum itself?
I appreciate that over-moderation is unhelpful and spoils discussion but there has to be a common sense line that can never be crossed. That line was clearly crossed yet nothing whatsoever was done about it. It is my opinion that this represents poor, of not lazy moderation. That is my opinion of it, if you want to ban me for having that opinion then that is your choice as the owner of the site. It will look very inconsistent though, when people are allowed to suggest that another member should kill themselves.
As for Zarkava, I am far from being the only person who thinks that the guy is an idiot. He makes snide and insulting remarks. I see no value in that at all. The guy is a negative influence and I have seen that since day 1, not because of any issue over a horse’s stamina, it’s the way I have always felt.
For the record, a horse can win over a mile in a certain grade. That does not always mean they can get away with it at the top level. The way a horse runs any race affects it’s ability to be effective at the trip on the day in question.
If you watch Frankel’s Guineas win, he was on fumes in the last two furlongs, only his class and the lead he had built let him get away with tiring. At Royal Ascot, he was worse and very nearly lost the race to Zoffany.
If you watch humans racing over 800m you will regularly see that even pace over the two laps is essential, anyone going off too hard on the first lap never gets home over the second. In the Guineas Eminent was going as hard as he could for too long. He is out of his comfort zone and he ends up paying for it. There is nothing whatsoever in the way he covers the final furlong that suggests he would have rallied and found a second wind had the race been longer. The horse was tired. If people want to believe all mile races are the same then that is their prerogative, I am trying to look deeper into it for clues.
People coming on here slagging the quality of the discussion does little to help the forum. I think this is the best forum there is bar none for quality. I just honestly feel that bad influences and downright unacceptable behaviour is being given too much leeway and bringing the quality down. Freedom of speech is a Myth I am afraid and I feel a tighter hand is required.
Obviously I am talking from the point of view as if it were what I would want for my site. It’s your site, not mine and I think it is a great site, with many great members. The needs of the many should take priority over tolerating nonsense in my opinion.
With respect, David Sutherland.
I did your horse today by the way, True Blue Moon. Won at 8/1. Looks a Natural
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
If I refused to tolerate any nonsense there wouldn’t be many of us left, I’d have banned myself several times over in earlier days! I think you are stretching things with your interpretation of the comments on that other thread, the comments were removed and the people indulging in that particular (two-sided) slanging match were warned that any further repeats would result in ip address bans.
We aim for sensible moderation and I know that we can’t please all the people all the time but, in general, I think we’re not far off.
I think too many people have not heard of the saying “agree to disagree”.
Calm down Calm down!!
And does anyone think Douglas Macarthur is overpriced??
I think too many people have not heard of the saying “agree to disagree”.
Calm down Calm down!!
And does anyone think Douglas Macarthur is overpriced??
Back on topic!
I don’t think Douglas is screaming value but I reckon you’d be lucky to get the current odds of 20/1 on the day, after all he is the Derrinstown winner. I don’t believe Yucatan should be the shorter priced of those from the Derrinstown, I think Douglas will confirm form with him and Capri. He looks professional enough to handle Epsom and will probably stay so to that extent the colt isn’t the worst each-way bet in the race but as we saw in the Ballysax he could get done for toe by something up the straight and Rekindling didn’t massively boost the form in the Dante.
I think Permian is the most solid each-way play and by some distance. Cracksman beat Permian but the runner up might well have progressed and looks the more straightforward of the two so 5/1 against 16/1 cannot be a fair reflection of their chances.
Agreed he is ew value. but don’t forget, when Permian was beaten by Cracksman he was having his 2nd start of the season. Cracksman was making his seasonal debut.
Permian was having his 8th career start. Cracksman was having his 2nd.
Permian had the run of the race. Cracksman was hampered.
I agree that Permian has progressed but I don’t think there is much doubt which of the two is the least exposed."this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Sorry Steve – I agree with much of what you say but I can’t agree that Eminent was going too hard for too long. The Guineas pace was slow – it took all of them by surprise. They quickened and Eminent couldn’t go with them. He was outpaced. He then got squeezed inside the final furlong so didn’t finish the race off well. In the Craven they DID go quick (fastest Craven in 50 years) and it suited him down to the ground. Hard to argue that a horse who can finish so strongly off a fast run mile doesn’t get a mile.
That said, I don’t think he was any way near the same form in the Guineas as he was in the Craven and he has questions to answer. I would be very surprised though if he didn’t end up being a better horse over further than a mile. Time will tell as always.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Churchill is more or less ruled out now. He goes to the Irish Guineas with Lancaster Bomber and, probably, Spirit Of Valour, according to O’Brien.
Hydrangea is set to line up in the 1000 Guineas, with warm favourite Winter.
Douglas MacArthur is 2/7 in his career, he’s clearly very beatable. His two wins were in a maiden and then scrambling home in a very tight finish. Second to Rekindling previously, that horse was rather readily brushed aside by Permian next time. The whole of the form line for Douglas MacArthur is littered with the same names cropping up. It’s hard not to feel “mediocre” cropping up in your thoughts regarding the form.
I feel it’s a shoo-in that Ryan will ride Cliffs Of Moher and he’ll be around about 3/1 Fav you would think.
For me, Godolphin considering running maiden winner Dubai Thunder in the Derby so soon after walking away with a race that panned out visually like a Cheltenham Bumper, is a sign that they have little confidence in any of their other entries.
I doubt Best Solution won a good renewal of the Derby trial at Lingfield. Hot favourite Sir John Lavery came in a silly 11/8 price for a maiden winner rated two stone behind the top rated in the field. He totally flopped and Tartini was very disappointing as well.
That was Best Solution’s 9th start and I have doubts if he really needed to improve at all to land the trial but the Official Handicapper gave him a 2 lb rise, which is not much for a horse who was rated at his previous mark way back in October of last year, when he was second to Waldgeist at Saint-Cloud.
Looking back at the Saint-Cloud race, it is amazing how many of the “Usual Suspects” ran in that race. Capri was the warm favourite and he was joined by Douglas MacArthur, Taj Mahal and Wings Of Eagles from Aidan’s team. The now exposed looking pair of Frankel colts, Cunco and Frankuus also ran that day but in search of value against Capri, I backed Rekindling at 25/1. Rekindling was a bitter flop that day and, yet again, it was a case of the O’Brien colts with nothing between them, as there was just a neck between the 10/11 Fav Capri and 18/1 shot Douglas MacArthur in 3rd and 4th places that day.
Waldgeist went on to the French trial race the Group 2 Prix Greffulhe where he was odds-on favourite but he struggled to get in front of team mate Akihiro, who has been disappointing this season, as both colts were readily put in their place by the finishing burst of Recoletos, who now heads to the Prix Du Jockey Club. Waldgeist is still on course for Epsom but Andre Fabre decided to cancel the intended trip to Breakfast With The Stars. Overall Waldgeist doesn’t look up to it unless we get a real quagmire at Epsom.
Cliffs Of Moher is way too short to back for me. Very impressive when winning his maiden he has stamina to prove and the Dee Stakes looked pretty moderate. Al Hamdany, who was 4th, is the only horse to run since and he was tailed off on a mark of 95 in a Newbury Handicap, beaten roughly 30 lengths further than he was behind Cliffs Of Moher off levels in the Dee Stakes. Bay Of Poets gives a tie into Cracksman but I think the Godolphin runner will ultimately prove inferior to the laid back and raw Gosden runner.
I agree with Stilvi’s excellent reasoning for Permian as the value bet here. The Johnston runner has a very atypical profile for the Derby but this Derby itself looks atypical. One thing we do know is that Permian is progressing well. It seemed inconceivable when we saw Permian beaten in a handicap at Bath, that the colt would go on to lift the Dante Stakes but he did so, and I felt he was capable of doing so beforehand.
Permian has had 10 runs, which is not typical of a Derby fancy but Best Solution has only run once less than that. We also know that Best Solution has only moved up by 2 lbs on ratings from last October, whereas Permian has probably improved a good bit further, unless a 106 colt really won a Group 2 Dante?
Permian won with something in hand last time and Mark Johnston was excited in the aftermath. There’s an old joke about throwing your money about like a Scotsman with no arms but Johnston sounded bullish about supplementing Permian on his way to speak to John Ferguson and it was soon confirmed he was to added to the field. The son of Teofilio has finished his last two races strongly and Cracksman only just managed to catch him late at Epsom. He beat the Craven third in Benbatl and yardstick horse Rekindling was further back in 4th. Joseph O’Brien said the ground went against his colt that day but it arguably went against the others as well and Rekindling has won with yielding in the going description before.
The obvious one may well have been Cracksman, had the colt managed to run again. I am surprised they didn’t run him in the Dante. The ground didn’t seem that bad at all. Shutter Speed ran the previous day on worse ground and Gosden said he only ran her to be “Sporting” for the sake of the race. I assume pulling two out the next day on better ground was for other reasons then?
Permian has clearly helped Cracksman’s win at Epsom in the trial look a good bit stronger form now. The owner didn’t help give punters any confidence with his output last week. The question now really rests on how much Cracksman has improved from his Epsom run. If he has made normal improvement for a Gosden horse from first to second runs in a season (Particularly when only making his second start overall) then I reckon that Cracksman is the one they all have to beat.
Wings Of Desire made strong improvement last spring for Gosden to land the Dante, Golden Horn did the same from Fielden to Dante in his season. It seems logical Cracksman will do the same.
I feel Venice Beach may prove Aidan’s best. He clearly stays and may just be the one plodding on for a place and a place at the head of the St Leger betting. I can’t see him as speedy enough but some of them won’t last home and he can perhaps pick up the pieces. Cliffs Of Moher is passed over on stamina and value grounds for me.
I’ve had a saver on Permian and my 1-2-3 for the Derby are:-
1.Cracksman
2.Permian
3.Venice BeachGood luck everybody, wherever you money goes.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Anyone have early thoughts on what might be the 2017 sacrificial hare from the Ballydoyle cooperative? I think it might be The Anvil which is a shame as I quite like him as a plodding on type. I still like Best Solution but like Joe I’m just a jumps fan peering in
Sorry Steve – I agree with much of what you say but I can’t agree that Eminent was going too hard for too long. The Guineas pace was slow – it took all of them by surprise. They quickened and Eminent couldn’t go with them. He was outpaced. He then got squeezed inside the final furlong so didn’t finish the race off well. In the Craven they DID go quick (fastest Craven in 50 years) and it suited him down to the ground. Hard to argue that a horse who can finish so strongly off a fast run mile doesn’t get a mile.
That said, I don’t think he was any way near the same form in the Guineas as he was in the Craven and he has questions to answer. I would be very surprised though if he didn’t end up being a better horse over further than a mile. Time will tell as always.
I get that thinking Joni, but watching the race many times, Eminent is tired looking. Imagining another furlong that day, it’s impossible for me to see him running on again. He couldn’t maintain his advantage on Dream Castle, despite that horse having stamina questions and only being running on for a very minor place, rather than challenging for the lead itself.
I am not keen on Martyn Meade myself. Each to their own. I don’t think they got the best out of Irish Rookie in her day. I thought they naively campaigned her regarding tactics.
I think Permian is way better value at almost double the odds in places.
The logic on fast times is always pretty mixed to me. It seems that a fast time, means the pace was fast. However, when ground is softer times are naturally slower. When ground is fast enough for track records I believe it is because the conditions allow horses to expend less energy in maintaining their pace, meaning that, it is effectively as if the race were slightly shorter, because their is less hindrance coming from the surface. If horses start setting track records on ground with cut in it, or go quicker on uphill tracks than they do on downhill ones, then I might concede that relative stamina is not a factor. How often do track records really stack up as form anyway?
If I run 100M in Nike Trainers and then try to match that wearing a pair of Farmer Dan’s wellies, my stamina is going to be affected at that same 100M.
Anyway, everyone is free to see it their own way of course. I am not having a go at anyone for having an opinion. what I don’t appreciate is people trying to make out that I must have missed seeing races and using that to belittle MY opinion. People also saying that the crack on twitter is far better quality than here is also a source of annoyance to me but if it is to be tolerated, then I accept that it not my business (Literally in this instance)
I just want to see what’s best for the site I consider to be the best quality for horse racing on the web.
I truly hope Cracksman can run out a good winner for the sake of the race. Has anyone got a figure they think is the maximum attainable for this year’s winner?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
That’s a pretty sensible round-up there Steve, I can’t find much I don’t really agree with other than I have my doubts about Permian back at Epsom where I’m not convinced he really handled the track brilliantly. He didn’t handle Bath that well either and the fact his most impressive performances have come round York and Newmarket perhaps lend fact to the theory. But I’m not 100% sure and you’re welcome to bring me up on that if it sounds a poor theory.
I go on holiday Saturday for two weeks in Japan so I need to sort out my Derby bets this week which isn’t ideal as I won’t know conditions or trainer comments.
I’m going to take 20/1 each-way on Venice Beach. He couldn’t be better related and looks sure to appreciate the stamina test. He was game at Chester and should come on leaps and bounds for it.
That just leaves me to sort out my ‘win’ bet which will either be Cliffs Of Moher or Cracksman and I need to sit down and get the replays up on the laptop before making a decision.
I think too many people have not heard of the saying “agree to disagree”.
Calm down Calm down!!
And does anyone think Douglas Macarthur is overpriced??
I agree that you agree we should agree to disagree.
And.. no. Haha
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.