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Not sure if you can take that form as a literal guide as Crystal Ocean beat Nathan on good to firm ground whereas it was proper soft ground at Newbury today with the time being 10.34s slower than standard (80L between 1st and last) – quite possible that Nathan didn’t act on the ground.
Not sure if you can take that form as a literal guide as Crystal Ocean beat Nathan on good to firm ground whereas it was proper soft ground at Newbury today with the time being 10.34s slower than standard (80L between 1st and last) – quite possible that Nathan didn’t act on the ground.
That was what I thought LD, the soft ground is notorious for throwing up wide margin winners. Trying to compare performances on vastly different going is bad enough with experienced and seasoned horses, trying to apply it to lightly raced maidens is suicidal.
The way I visualise these things is to imagine what other Derby contenders would have done to that field today, were they racing in it. Take Cliffs Of Moher for argument’s sake. Ground issue aside, the probability is that Cliffs Of Moher would win 20 lengths hard held.
I think that is something that could be done to educate the general betting public on class difference. Get a horse rated 120 and race it at levels against a horse rated 60 and you could demonstrate what a difference in ability there is.
Anyhow, I would say it would be utter stupidity to take a promising horse and pitch it into a Derby on second start. Trainers like Aiden O’Brien, Henry Cecil, Michael Stoute and John Gosden know the value of taking a horse along slowly and steadily. I get the feeling that Godolphin’s lack of success is down to a lack of patience. Two or three years ago I was losing count of how many promising 1st time 2YO winners they had, who got the “Can only improve here” comment from the Timeform preview, only to then go and get beaten at short odds. Emotionless was a horse I think they pushed too hard and probably Wonderful Charm as well. Ballydoyle are far superior in terms of waiting and finding the correct targets at the correct time for the horses.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Godolphin entered 24 horses in the Coral-Eclipse earlier this week, Dubai Thunder wasn’t amongst them. Last week they entered 22 horses in the Arc, Dubai Thunder wasn’t amongst them. They don’t appear to rate him that highly themselves.
Give it a week or so, im sure that will change.
Not sure if you can take that form as a literal guide as Crystal Ocean beat Nathan on good to firm ground whereas it was proper soft ground at Newbury today with the time being 10.34s slower than standard (80L between 1st and last) – quite possible that Nathan didn’t act on the ground.
Absolutely, i wouldnt be overly worried about dubai thunder acting on better ground either though his pedigree is promising, at this stage who sais he wont be better on better ground? The winning margin today was more than acting/not acting on ground, he didnt just pull away from nathan, he demolished them all.
im not a time fan, the run of the race is more important than the overall time, especially over middle distance, in a 5f sprint id be more inclined to pay attention to speed figures, the longer the race the less relevant the “overall” time is, slow / fast, means absolutely nothing. (Just my own opinion, not knocking your way of analysing)im not being silly and suggesting hes a world beater off the back of one run, im just saying it was mightly impressive, every bit as impressive as dream castle, benbati etc earlier, over a distance that certainly puts him into the derby picture. and look how quickly after their impressive maiden win they where soon in the frame of the guineas etc..
Hes was exciting that is all.
Let me have a little fun in saying i snapped up the 50s, id rather have 50s on him than 6s on cracksman
Not sure if you can take that form as a literal guide as Crystal Ocean beat Nathan on good to firm ground whereas it was proper soft ground at Newbury today with the time being 10.34s slower than standard (80L between 1st and last) – quite possible that Nathan didn’t act on the ground.
That was what I thought LD, the soft ground is notorious for throwing up wide margin winners. Trying to compare performances on vastly different going is bad enough with experienced and seasoned horses, trying to apply it to lightly raced maidens is suicidal.
The way I visualise these things is to imagine what other Derby contenders would have done to that field today, were they racing in it. Take Cliffs Of Moher for argument’s sake. Ground issue aside, the probability is that Cliffs Of Moher would win 20 lengths hard held.
I think that is something that could be done to educate the general betting public on class difference. Get a horse rated 120 and race it at levels against a horse rated 60 and you could demonstrate what a difference in ability there is.
Anyhow, I would say it would be utter stupidity to take a promising horse and pitch it into a Derby on second start. Trainers like Aiden O’Brien, Henry Cecil, Michael Stoute and John Gosden know the value of taking a horse along slowly and steadily. I get the feeling that Godolphin’s lack of success is down to a lack of patience. Two or three years ago I was losing count of how many promising 1st time 2YO winners they had, who got the “Can only improve here” comment from the Timeform preview, only to then go and get beaten at short odds. Emotionless was a horse I think they pushed too hard and probably Wonderful Charm as well. Ballydoyle are far superior in terms of waiting and finding the correct targets at the correct time for the horses.
Arent you on cracksman? The difference between cracksman and dubai thunder is what? a spin around epsom? Hes as inexperienced as dubai thunder, the difference between 2 runs and 3 runs is absolutely zip
Mind you, Cracksman had to do a bit of navigation to win last time; despite the big field Dubai Thunder got a fairly nice spin round on the rail with a clear view. Probably didn’t learn as much precisely because he was a good deal better than the others- could lay up with the pace no bother to keep his good position, then put on the afterburners and didn’t have to fight for it. It’s hard to know whether a bit of adversity before a big race is good for them, or whether a nice experience where they can sail around and believe that winning races is easy and fun to do is better.
Well, to my thinking, the following will not run:-
Churchill
Barney Roy
Crystal Ocean
Dubai Thunder
Mirage Dancer
Atty Persse
Rivet
Sir John Lavery
TartiniOf what is left, you can take a big magic marker and draw a line through the dross. Seven Heavens is in there for Christ Sake. Last seen at 6F
The Official ratings are as follows going down the betting:-
Cliffs Of Moher 106
Cracksman 107
Eminent 112
Permian 106 (almost certain to rise after Dante win)
Best Solution 113
Venice Beach 111
Yucatan 110
Capri 110
Douglas MacArthur 111
Rekindling 109
Benbatl 106Those seem the most realistic candidates. Call To Mind runs tomorrow in a listed race but I can’t see him as an Epsom candidate, as an 82 rated maiden winner, needing to fins two stones in two weeks.
Looking at out list, the figures bear out my original feeling that you could throw a small condom over the entire Ballydoyle contingent.
Best Solution is top rated on 113 but he was rated 111 last October, so he’s hardly flown forward in three runs and seven months since?
Some of Aidan’s are pretty exposed and Cliffs Of Moher stands out as the one likely to improve for them. Venice Beach would be the other likely to be improving if you believe the figure he got for the Chester Vase but I have major doubts he improved the 18 lbs that the Racing Post gave him for winning that very weak looking renewal. I believe time will show us that the far less relevant trial it is these days was a poor contest.
I don’t think Eminent will stay. We hear that the trainer is bullish, but he was bullish going into the Guineas and was run out of it. He’s not for me hear and only has a wafer thin advantage on ratings from some others.
Permian seems sure to get a rise for winning the Dante, he has now enhanced Cracksman’s form twice. With Permian’s rise, we have to consider where Cracksman stands and on official ratings we see that he is only 6 lbs behind the highest rated on the list. You could almost argue that he is already equal, if we consider Permian’s latest effort. Mark Johnston et all are supplementing Permian, so that itself tells you they feel they have a chance.
I would expect a John Gosden horse to improve about a stone at least between 1st run of the season, Dante and Derby. Now he has missed the trial, he has to do it in one leap, but it’s just possible that a little less than that might be enough. He’s very lightly raced and has been round the track, all logic would say he would improve past Permian by further.
The talk has been largely negative from the Gosden camp this week though and this pulling out of horses hardly inspires confidence.
I do see Cracksman as the likeliest winner her though. This looks a very modest Derby and if Cracksman has improved, he might just go out there and win with a bit to spare. He seems the likeliest hope we have of a half ways decent winner.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Not sure if you can take that form as a literal guide as Crystal Ocean beat Nathan on good to firm ground whereas it was proper soft ground at Newbury today with the time being 10.34s slower than standard (80L between 1st and last) – quite possible that Nathan didn’t act on the ground.
That was what I thought LD, the soft ground is notorious for throwing up wide margin winners. Trying to compare performances on vastly different going is bad enough with experienced and seasoned horses, trying to apply it to lightly raced maidens is suicidal.
The way I visualise these things is to imagine what other Derby contenders would have done to that field today, were they racing in it. Take Cliffs Of Moher for argument’s sake. Ground issue aside, the probability is that Cliffs Of Moher would win 20 lengths hard held.
I think that is something that could be done to educate the general betting public on class difference. Get a horse rated 120 and race it at levels against a horse rated 60 and you could demonstrate what a difference in ability there is.
Anyhow, I would say it would be utter stupidity to take a promising horse and pitch it into a Derby on second start. Trainers like Aiden O’Brien, Henry Cecil, Michael Stoute and John Gosden know the value of taking a horse along slowly and steadily. I get the feeling that Godolphin’s lack of success is down to a lack of patience. Two or three years ago I was losing count of how many promising 1st time 2YO winners they had, who got the “Can only improve here” comment from the Timeform preview, only to then go and get beaten at short odds. Emotionless was a horse I think they pushed too hard and probably Wonderful Charm as well. Ballydoyle are far superior in terms of waiting and finding the correct targets at the correct time for the horses.
Arent you on cracksman? The difference between cracksman and dubai thunder is what? a spin around epsom? Hes as inexperienced as dubai thunder, the difference between 2 runs and 3 runs is absolutely zip
Sorry, I don’t get your point here.
Cracksman has course form and the form has been franked. He is trained by a man who has always improved his horses. Dubai Thunder is a winner of a maiden in a ploughed field. He probably won’t run in the Derby and if he does the owners don’t have a clue about being patient and developing a horse.
As I say, I wouldn’t take 100/1 on Dubai Thunder for the Derby. 12/1 with Stan James is a F***ing disgrace.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Not saying it wasn’t an exciting performance at all and he might be a better horse on quicker ground although I did notice he had a relatively high knee action (similar to his half brother Farhh, who was better on softer ground), which could be an issue round Epsom on quicker ground but I can’t honestly believe he would have beaten Nathan by the same 18L on good or good to firm ground.
It may be coming a bit quick for him but happy you got 50s, I like Cracksman as I think of those at the top of the market he is the most open to more improvement and whilst he lacks the runs on the board his two battling wins would have taught him a great deal – I also really like Mirage Dancer (unlikely to run if Stoute has his way) who I think might have still been unbeaten if not for a very tactically average ride from Murphy at Chester.
Looking forward to Breakfast with the Stars as we will likely get to see Cracksman & Eminent take a spin round the course – wonder if Cracksman will do a more serious gallop having missed the Dante?
Not saying it wasn’t an exciting performance at all and he might be a better horse on quicker ground although I did notice he had a relatively high knee action (similar to his half brother Farhh, who was better on softer ground), which could be an issue round Epsom on quicker ground but I can’t honestly believe he would have beaten Nathan by the same 18L on good or good to firm ground.
It may be coming a bit quick for him but happy you got 50s, I like Cracksman as I think of those at the top of the market he is the most open to more improvement and whilst he lacks the runs on the board his two battling wins would have taught him a great deal – I also really like Mirage Dancer (unlikely to run if Stoute has his way) who I think might have still been unbeaten if not for a very tactically average ride from Murphy at Chester.
Looking forward to Breakfast with the Stars as we will likely get to see Cracksman & Eminent take a spin round the course – wonder if Cracksman will do a more serious gallop having missed the Dante?
Nathan’s stable (Simon Crisford) is in poor form at the moment as well. 0/20 last twenty runners.
The ground is everything in racing, it’s never given the full consideration it is due. It’s a myth that “A good horse will go in any ground”, that must have been penned by some half-wit back in the day, who had no clue about how a horse moves.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Anyhow, I would say it would be utter stupidity to take a promising horse and pitch it into a Derby on second start.
Steve’s clearly never heard of Lammtarra or the unlucky Hala Bek
I don’t think Eminent will stay. We hear that the trainer is bullish, but he was bullish going into the Guineas and was run out of it. He’s not for me hear and only has a wafer thin advantage on ratings from some others.
His ratings have been gained over 1m and will improve for an extra 2f + likely more. The others have gained their ratings at 10f, so Eminent deserves a + at the very least.
I agree mostly with everything else you’ve written.
I don’t see why they wouldn’t run Dubai Thunder either. Obviously we have 10% of the information they have, but given the way the field looks, I think it’d definitely be worth a punt.
Btw it’s spelt here* ;)
Added a small bet on Douglas McArthur @ 42.0. If he runs i can see him running well. Kept on well last time out, and could improve more over further. A good chance of him running considering his owner has become a new sponsor of the race.
Not the biggest surprise at all, if an outsider won this
Anyhow, I would say it would be utter stupidity to take a promising horse and pitch it into a Derby on second start.
Steve’s clearly never heard of Lammtarra or the unlucky Hala Bek
Don’t be a dick.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I come on here and provide solid evidence Eminent will stay. Joliff tells me “he won’t stay…end of”, then calls me “patronising”! LOL
Then Steve says a two-time winner over 1m is a non-stayer of 1 mile, and that it would be stupid to run a once-raced horse in the Derby. I point out such a horse won the Derby just over 20 years ago + nearly again 11 years ago and I get told “don’t be a dick”
I get better discussions on Twitter, and that’s saying something.
Enjoy tickling each other’s balls
Best Solution could prove to be exactly that. If you take at face value the claims of connections that he simply did not act at Meydan then he should surely be shorter for the Derby.
He’ll be about the most experienced in the field and seems thoroughly game and genuine. He’ll stay too.
Enjoy tickling each other’s balls
We will, you’re missing out.
Best Solution could prove to be exactly that. If you take at face value the claims of connections that he simply did not act at Meydan then he should surely be shorter for the Derby.
He’ll be about the most experienced in the field and seems thoroughly game and genuine. He’ll stay too.
I’m with you there Steeplechasing, the market doesn’t seem to be taking his trial win at face value but I was very impressed with his way of doing things. 14/1 e/w seems more than fair.
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