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Eminent won’t get the trip in my opinion. I don’t think he even got home in the Guineas to be honest.
LOL
The horse definitely weakened in the Guineas. I am sure individual sectional timing would prove that. Laugh if you wish. He won’t last 12F
So first a 2-time winner over 1 mile is a non-stayer of 1 mile, now all horses who ever weakened in races ever did so because they didn’t stay.
LOL
Is this the standard of debate on here now?
Maybe because it had to run really hard to try and maintain it’s position on fast ground meant it faded at the finish
this debate reminded me of what I heard on a podcast the other day about horses that win derbys potentially running in july cups
the guy on the podcast was explaining how middle distance horses can often stay with sprinters over 2-3 furlongs at home but the difference is the sprinters can maintain that speed over 5/6 furlongs
stayers preserve that staying ability and use it at the end of a race. On the other hand I can’t recall a derby winner running like Eminent did in the guineas. If anyone has some video of Dr Devious, Generous running in their guineas please put it up
With Churchill probably heading to The Curragh , this year’s Derby now looks more open than ever .
I was most taken with Permian’s win in the Dante and I’ll be surprised if he is not supplemented for the Epsom race as he was for York’s Derby Trial . He showed a nice turn of foot and stayed on well .
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I reckon Ballydoyle must be pretty confident Cliffs of Moher is good enough to take down a sub-par Derby field and thus don’t feel the need to test Churchill’s stamina. Churchill looks more than capable of mopping up the mile division in Europe this year and would have a shot at the Breeder’s Cup Mile as well – a CV which would be absolutely fine for Coolmore without risking him over the extra half mile and demanding track at Epsom.
Have to agree with zarkava, eminent couldnt be pulled up over 7f so to say he didnt get 8 is silly…. secondly the guineas was a speed test not a staying test thats why he fell apart at the end after being to free and a 1f dash at the end….. longer trip clearly would suit, not saying it will be 12f, might be 10f…. but 8f was CLEARLY inadequate for him.
Secondly, dubai thunder was pretty impressive their and to have hes held the derby entry to this stage without a run really gives me positives that they think hes the real deal….. snapped up 50s for the derby in running, barney roy not going should almost guarantee he does.
This forum is better without you Zarkava, you come across extremely patronising and belittling and it’s not in keeping with the excellent standard set on here.
You have a quick trigger finger ham, he’s about 16s now. He looked like a more experienced horse and yep, pretty impressive when he stomped on the accelerator!
What are peoples opinions on Dubai Thunder that won today for Godolphin?
Appreciate it was only his first run but he deatroyed the field by 10 lengths and is a half brother to Farhh. Looks like he enjoyed himself.
Well played Ham for getting 50s.
Personally, I don’t think Dubai Thunder will run given his inexperience and Godolphin’s already seemingly strong hand in the Derby.
You would have to say he’s unlikely to win The Derby even if he did run. I remember World Domination being tipped after he won a similar maiden at Newbury a couple of years back and I don’t think he ever won again.
But a very striking horse none-the-less who’d add more flavour to The Derby if he did take part.
Didn’t work to well for Ulysses who won the exact same race last year by a big distance and then went to the Derby and cut no ice, 12F might be an issue as most of Dubai Thunder’s family are 10F horses (Farhh was best at 8F) although one half brother Royal Flag (by New Approach) has won over 2m.
Jockey comments would suggest that he might not be ready for everything that goes with Derby Day – Adam Kirby said: “He’s very nice. He was very babyish beforehand and a bit randy, but he’s got a serious engine. He liked getting his toe in, but I’m not saying he needs it soft. He’s got class.”
Have to agree with zarkava, eminent couldnt be pulled up over 7f so to say he didnt get 8 is silly…. secondly the guineas was a speed test not a staying test thats why he fell apart at the end after being to free and a 1f dash at the end….. longer trip clearly would suit, not saying it will be 12f, might be 10f…. but 8f was CLEARLY inadequate for him.
Secondly, dubai thunder was pretty impressive their and to have hes held the derby entry to this stage without a run really gives me positives that they think hes the real deal….. snapped up 50s for the derby in running, barney roy not going should almost guarantee he does.
It’s important to get facts correct when making predictions. Eminent has never run over 7F, so you can forget that right away.
The trip issue is a myth in some respects. Barry Hills once said that every horse in the Derby gets the trip. It’s how long they take to cover it is the vital factor. Much will depend on what way a horse is ridden in any given race.
In the Craven Eminent came from behind, off his own pace and he picked up Rivet. Rivet ran a similar race in France, where he was mowed down and two colts pulled 3 lengths clear from him. Clearly not quite top class, Rivet has shown himself vulnerable to something finishing from off the pace. In the Craven Eminent arrived at the right time to collar Rivet.
If we move onto the Guineas, Martyn Meade said he had a plan. This time Eminent was committed earlier and under pressure much earlier than he was in the Craven. He is under full drive for far longer. When that happens to a horse, they use up their stamina more quickly than if they can go at their normal pace. Eminent was facing better horse and was ridden to take the sting out of the perceived faster horses. He is not staying on at the end of that race. Horses are increasing their advantage over him and others are staying on past him. Watch him as the leaders hit the winning line, he is tired. If that race had been a furlong longer, he would have been beaten further the way he was ridden that day.
Anyway, people can make their own minds up. I know that my thinking is deeper than it is getting credit for here. I am a scientist to trade and I have an excellent record in predicting stamina prognosis for the Derby.
That’s all that matters to me. Kerching
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I wouldn’t take 100/1 on Dubai Thunder. It’s highly likely he beat trees today. We see it time and again that impressive winners on soft tend to go off false prices and get stuffed later.
If there is a sure way to f*** up a promising young horse starting it’s career, it is to run it in the Derby on it’s second start.
Yet again it is that disgraceful excuse for a bookmakers Stan James who are the shortest. 12/1 for a maiden winner on gutters a fortnight before the Derby. Sweet Jesus, how low can those cowards stoop?
This must be one of the worst Derbies ever. Bookies cutting the prices of anything that looks to have four legs on it and keeping the three legged ones pretty tight as well.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Don’t get the comments in the media that are given about how relaxed and professional a horse Churchill is (together with how Galileo imparts so much stamina into his offspring that it can offset glaring limitations on the dam side) as potential reasons for him staying 12F. Some are even going as far to say that if he can stay 10F his class will see him through to win.
Looking back through the Derby roll of honour I couldn’t point out any winner that stood out to me as a horse that only stayed 10F (although there were a few that you could argue were better at 10F but then that could be due to the fact there are more options at 10F than 12F after Epsom).
Churchill’s dam (Meow) was a sprinter, her dam (Airwave) was a sprinter, her dam (Kangra Valley) was a sprinter and her dam (Thorner Lane) was…yes you guessed it a sprinter. His build suggests that 8F and maybe even shorter would be more suitable than going up in trip – personally I could see him following the lines of Gleneagles, George Washington and Henrythenavigator and sticking to 8F through the year before rolling the dice and going up in trip to 10F for the BC Classic (but only Henrythenavigator cut much ice in that by finishing 3rd when it was run on the European friendly surface Pro-Ride instead of dirt).
Re Eminent, a lot will depend on how he settles leaving the stalls and climbing the hill – due to a lack of cover he was too free in the early stages at Newmarket and was then asked a bit further out than he was in the Craven, considering all that energy he used up he finished the race how you would expect.
Ultimately, 10F may prove his ideal trip (or an end to end gallop over 8F like he got in the Craven) but until he shows he doesn’t stay, the Derby is the logical next step but getting him to settle will be crucial and you will most likely know your fate with him after the first 2F.
There hasn’t been an inspired performance in the lead up which is probably why people are already bemoaning the race and why bookies are in silly season mode trying to drum up some life in the market from a wide margin maiden winner who has no right to be the price he is now.
I wouldnt entirely say he beat trees today steve, crystal ocean beat nathan by 2 lengths, now that form dosent hold too much substance but when you consider dubai thunder thrashed nathan by a distance today first time out over 10f it has to mean a little in terms of the derby, hes held the derby entry for quite a while now…. stamina will clearly not be an issue (obviously the opposition will be better) but without churchill the derby is full of low 100 horses, i dont think dubai thunder ran far away from a mid 90s mark today….. one would assume a good improvement to come from that….. plus im not really to bothered if he can win or not, if he turns up ill be in a good position to lay
But i do agree to win a derby on your second run would be something special….. but then again, who really has any true form in this derby aside from churchill (who wont run)
beat nathan by 2 lengths, now that form dosent hold too much substance
Maybe not now but when I was at school anyone beating me by 2 lengths would of needed very quick legs and a bucket load of determination.
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