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I think one of the problems when you go on these forums is you tend to overthink it a lot and end up backing a lot of runners, or “savers”
because people who go on forums tend to over analyse more than the usual punter.
as this derby is more wide open than most it’s tempting to back half the field. however so far I’ve resisted added to my inital bet on eminent and not got plunged into the usual saver bets. (i do have a double on enable/cracksman as well)
It seems to me there’s no obvious reason why O’Brien and Godolphin aren’t just running their usual also rans. The fact they are running so many suggests as others have said that they don’t have anything special.
Of course if Martyn Meade had five derby horses he’d probably also run five, however it does seem like there is no star in the coolmore or godolphin ranks.
was very tempted to back venice beach today and when I went for a run I spotted a van with “capri” written on the side of it which I almost took to be an omen, clearly I’m losing it
Its funny you say that Judge as when I was in Spain last week, I walked past this sign that said Acapulco and I thought the exact thing!!! Im not always the superstitious type but thought it was fate.
Lol yes you know you’re losing it when that ends up being the deciding factor!
I hadnt even had a drink at this point either! In fairness, Sky Bet did a boost when it was confirmed that Acapulco was moving from Wesley to Aiden, for Royal Ascot 10/1. I got involved then but after the strange sign in Spain I thought I could be onto a winner lol. Spooky
Eminent travelled so well in his Epsom workout
he reminds me greatly of authorized- I can see him travelling like a ferrari and hacking all over most of them in the straight
maybe cliffs of slower, worst solution and crapsman will have more power under their bonnet- or maybe not
Eminent travelled so well in his Epsom workout
he reminds me greatly of authorized- I can see him travelling like a ferrari and hacking all over most of them in the straight
maybe cliffs of slower, worst solution and crapsman will have more power under their bonnet- or maybe not
You are just stirring the pot now Judge
Im excited for this years derby because literally anthing can win….compared to previous years where there were a few headline horses before the off. Roll on Saturday, should be a cracker
Added Cliffs of Moher @ 16’s to win
That makes 3 now with
SJL E/W @ 50’s. Win @ 33’s,28.0 25’s, 20’s & 16’s
Cracksman E/W @ 33’s, 25’s & 20’sHopefully on the day of the race i’m not looking about for something to get my money back on.
Laid off all Cracksman bets now between 8.0 – 9.0 for a free bet and a very good win if he wins. Just got my doubts now with him.
Laid off COM @ 7.4 for free betSJL has been substituted by Crystal Ocean @ 33’s 32.0 and 25’s
Laid Churchill to win £70
I have somehow ended up with a green ” book ” on this race now which was not intended.
Total win bets on the race £402.52 lays £733.66Cracksman + 73.65 not bad considering i have laid him to lose £900 ( worst result )
COM +156.44 Laid to lose £590Best results are
Douglas Macarthur, Capri, Best Solution & Rekindling all for £500 +, along with some of the rags.Worst result of fancied horses are Eminent, Permian, Dubai Thunder & Benbatl
Funny how things end up, my only intention was to lay off Cracksman & COM bets for a free bet and now they are bigger than when i started.
Do i let it ride, or do i guarantee myself at least a £200 win on the race ?
Laid Cracksman win and place 5.4 & 2.38 for a free bet @ 27/1.
I think I’m going to have a bit on Glencadam Glory e/w at 50s on the off chance he actually breaks with the others.
Torrential rain is forecast in a severe weather warning for Friday – from about 1pm onwards
https://www.racingpost.com/news/epsom-countdown/umbrellas-at-the-ready-torrential-rain-feared-for-oaks-friday/287823Torrential rain is forecast in a severe weather warning for Friday – from about 1pm onwards
https://www.racingpost.com/news/epsom-countdown/umbrellas-at-the-ready-torrential-rain-feared-for-oaks-friday/287823Surprisingly there has been no move on Capri in the wake of that news, most notably on Betfair where he is still priced up at 16.0, nor Sobetsu in the Oaks who still sits at 10.0. If the rain does come, I expect them to be slashed.
I am still confident and I hope Cracksman will win!
Last but not least to kick his hater’s asses
..I am still confident and I hope Cracksman will win!
Last but not least to kick his hater’s asses ..Come on Cracksman!
I am still confident and I hope Cracksman will win!
Last but not least to kick his hater’s asses ..Come on Cracksman!
Wheres the ‘like’ button
Im hopeful more than anything. I do have a gut feel that Permian will be closer than people think
I’m feeling suprisingly confident here on Cracksman- I just think he’ll win and complete a massive double for Gosden/Dettori as well as giving a boost to his amazing sire
My Derby ratings below, a weighted blend of stamina, class, speed and form figures…which are then given comparative values. Did ok over on the Oaks thread with the top three rated running 1-2-3, though as Eric Morecambe might have said…”not necessarily in the right order”
Eminent 18
Venice Beach 16
Cliffs Of Moher 15
Best Solution 14
Cracksman 14
Douglas Macarthur 13
Capri 13
Permian 13
Khalidi 12
Rekindling 12
Benbatl 12
The Anvil 11
Crowned Eagle 9
Saloen 8
Glencadam Glory 8
Pealer 7
Diore Lia 7
Wings Of Eagles 6
Dubai Thunder 5To be honest the system has thrown up a result I don’t like much but that’s the thing about systems you have to accept the output.
My own personal 1,2 3 would be
Cliffs Of Moher
Cracksman
Douglas MacarthurGood luck tomorrow.
I love the racing in Dubai, especially world cup night. This year there was thunder and rain in the skies, so I’m going for Dubai Thunder to win this and nobody’s gonna stop me, not even my imaginary friend who keeps telling me to back Eminent. Plus, DT is a half brother to Farrh, in my top 5 personal favourite horses. That’s reason enough for me.
Just backed Eminent as well.
@RunningRein
Really like the result of your system RR nice to see how highly Eminent is rated.
Hopeful he is going to live up to it this afternoon and win the Derby. Good luck all
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I love the racing in Dubai, especially world cup night. This year there was thunder and rain in the skies, so I’m going for Dubai Thunder to win this and nobody’s gonna stop me, not even my imaginary friend who keeps telling me to back Eminent. Plus, DT is a half brother to Farrh, in my top 5 personal favourite horses. That’s reason enough for me.
Just backed Eminent as well.
I saw his workout with best solution on the all weather, and best solution impressed me more to be honest, both in looks and the way they ran. massive ask anyway to win a derby on your second run. It’ll be interesting to have a look at the paddock (on itv that is) and see how these horses compare, I think it’ll probably be quite a muggy day so we’re likely to have some horses sweat up and perhaps some boil over.
So here we go. It’s D Day in every sense. The world’s greatest race and a chance for Frankel’s sons to do what dad never got the chance to. I genuinely think they both have great chances. Eminent has Group 1 form in the book and I think we all know that the Guineas was a proper race. He may only have finished 6th but he wasn’t beaten far and the step up in trip should be in his favour. I see him travelling powerfully into the race – then it’s just about whether he stays. Cracksman has done nothing wrong. I worry that he is so inexperienced, especially in such a tough race, but I see Frankie riding him handy and committing some way out as this horse is all about that stride. If that happens I think he will be hard to peg back. I have also had a little bit on Glencadam Glory as he could just pick up the pieces if there is a strong pace (and if he deigns to leave the bloody stalls). I have not been impressed with any of the Ballydoyle horses this year – there may be a star amongst them but they haven’t shown themselves yet.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
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