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Pretty sure Kaymer did it there a few years back too. They hold a special event where loads of them try it
Niall Lyons of Boyles put up the 16/1 about any player scoring a 62 or lower any round as his bet of the tournament in the RP today, saying it’s an “absolute monster”.
No surprise to see it cut considerably with any bookie pricing up that market but Unibet have been slow to cotton on and are somehow offering 20/1, albeit maxing me at £20.
Even with the 7lbs it is likely to take a higher rating to win the Triumph than the FW. Just by having a quick look at the past winners!
Agreed, she’d have no chance in a Triumph but she’d have near top weight in a Fred Winter and it’s asking a lot of a 4yo mare to run off levels, let alone giving away weight to her male counterparts.
There’s a reason why you don’t get many mares running in this race.
She’d be better off in the mare’s novice in receipt of 7lb or if anybody thinks she’d be good enough to win a Fred Winter off say 136 then even the Supreme where she’d get both the weight and sex allowance putting her adjusted rating roughly on a par with the 150 runners.
I’d be surprised to see them run a mare in this race. She’d get a 7lb allowance in the Triumph but won’t here.
Regardless of his mark, Glen Forsa needs one more outing over fences to even qualify for the race and that could prove tricky given that the entries are (or at least were) due next Tuesday, we’re in the middle of a no-racing period and he’s not entered for anything atm, Note: He was entered in a couple of postponed races last Saturday.
If he does run and is as well in as we think then he won’t still be on 138 next Wednesday. Might be tough to ensure that he gets a significant enough rise to guarantee a position without getting more than 7lbs to take him over the ceiling though. As Ben Pauling could testify to.
EDIT : Entered today for Haydock on Saturday
Previous festival form is not irrelevant, it’s one of the biggest factors in identifying future festival winners and is going to be a much better guide than having been winning four runner races in mid winter.
Price the race up then lads?
Day of race, betting to 103.33%
Footpad 7/4
Petit Mouchoir 7/2
Sceau Royal 5/1
Saint Calvados 13/2
Brain Power 9/120/1 the field, inc. North Hil Harvey et al
I’d agree but not because I think Saint Calvados is too long – he’s not – but because Footpad is clearly way under-priced and that’s because the bookies nowadays will shorten a horse (esp. a WPM one) as soon as he’s posted a decent performance and fail to push them back out when other performances of note come along.
But just because Footpad is too short shouldn’t necessarily be reason to back Saint Calvados.
No way is Footpad as short as he is right now on the day. They all line up and he’ll be minimum 6/4.
That’s not how you equate a horse’s chance.
Evens means a 50% chance
6/1 means a 14.28% chance50/14.28 = 3.5
so the question should be “Is Footpad truly 3.5x more likely to win this race than SC?”. In which case I’d say it’s a fair reflection, hence their current prices.
but do I think Footpad is value at Evens? No, not particularly. Not when you have Sceau Royal, Petit Mouchoir and Saint Calvados lying in wait, among others.
Mike, he was only 4 last season, therefore he wasn’t allowed to run in the race.
Which is another negative. He’s 5 now and while that age group used to do well a decade or so ago when they received a 5lb allowance, as exploited by Pipe and Nicholls on multiple occasions, it’s rare nowadays for them to even run in it.
There’s a reason they used to get an allowance and since coming over from France he’s ran in – and won – three races. All were four runner races run in deep ground.
That’s going to be a long way removed from what he’ll get in the Arkle and his lack of experience in a race of that nature has to be a big concern when the other three at the head of the market have all experienced the hurly burly of a truly run Champion Hurdle.
Fred Winter would have to come under serious consideration for Divin Bere considering he’s only rated 137. Providing of course the BHA do not bump him up a few pounds later this week due to his form with the King horse.
None of Foxrock, On His Own or First Lieutenant are eligible for the Foxhunters.
Ask The Weatherman really interests me too and Irish Stamp, formerly of this parish, has already backed it and that’s good enough for me.
Be careful reading into that Coeur De Lion form for Jenkins as the horse never ran again, being killed in a freak accident after and the Coeur De Lion who’s won a maiden hurdle and been placed in a couple of decent juvenile events is a different horse trained by King. The former was trained by Robert Tyner.
That said I do think the market overreacted to Jenkins’ defeat LTO and 25/1 is probably too big for a horse who has his undoubted ability. I remember MTOY taking a walk in the market after he was turned over at long odds on by his stablemate Chatterbox before eventually going off a short priced jolly for this when I was sat on a 16/1 voucher, win only
If Charli Parcs runs in this he’d have an outstanding chance on the visual impression left by that one run but unfortunately only Skybet are NRNB and their 8/1 is pretty short when there are still many unknowns.
My Tent Or Yours 50/1 Champion Hurdle. 12.5/1 for a horse who’s finished in the top 3 of 19/20 career starts, and placed at 3/3 Festivals.
You’re not getting 12.5/1 though Zarkava because the win part of your bet is effectively dead, meaning the odds are 6/1, which is more in line with the Betfair “to place” market.
Horse racing is 90% interpretation so forever wait for something or somebody to offer you confirmation and you’ll spend your life betting at SP.
I’m confident WPM thinks Vautour won’t stay and while he’s taking out between 12 & 16% of the books that will give me an edge.
If I’m wrong come March then so be it.
Nice intro from Thistlecrack there btw.
