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Yes, of course but the point still stands and the original poster had the “possibly” caveat for Vautour not me, even though I happen to agree with it. Mullins doesn’t think he’ll stay and again I agree.
The fact is there isn’t a single contender who doesn’t have a question mark and considering Thistlecrack’s is his lack of fencing experience you can understand why the bookies are taking no chances given his trainer.
Has Willie said he won’t stay?
Willie wouldn’t say tomorrow is Wednesday but it’s clear from numerous podcasts etc. (though admittedly Patrick does talk shite sometimes) and his campaigning of him late last season.
Here’s Willie’s most recent comment “I’m going to see how he races in his first few starts before making longer-term plans. He’s in every picture with regard to potential targets”.
The Gold Cup is the pinnacle of NH racing and one that Willie would dearly love to win. If he didn’t have severe doubts do you not think his end of season target would be crystal clear ?
If you hadn’t used the word “if” in every one of those sentences then yes, 7/1 would be undeniably skinny.
I’m just playing devils advocate and FWIW My money would be on Cue Card at this stage, regardless of his age, but outside of him I’d prefer to side with the potential of Thistlecrack (despite his jockey) over the doubtful participation/stamina of Vautour and the chance that we’ll see either Coneygree or Don Cossack back to their best.
No chance will Douvan run in the 2017 Gold Cup.
16/1 Djakadam most likely represents the best E/W value though considering we know it’s his target and there aren’t really any doubts. Any of those above him in them market put in their A game though and he’ll be placed at best and I’m not into E/W AP betting (unless it’s in a multiple) for obvious reasons.
Yes, of course but the point still stands and the original poster had the “possibly” caveat for Vautour not me, even though I happen to agree with it. Mullins doesn’t think he’ll stay and again I agree.
The fact is there isn’t a single contender who doesn’t have a question mark and considering Thistlecrack’s is his lack of fencing experience you can understand why the bookies are taking no chances given his trainer.
They won’t p1ss about with novice chases. If he doesn’t take to fences he’ll revert back and win another World hurdle doing handstands.
I’m no expert or good judge but can Thistlecrack be seriously considered a gold cup favourite even before he has ever jumped a fence in public??
I can’t have him as favourite, irrespective or not of what he has beat over hurdles. Look at the chasers he has waiting in store to take him on in the gold cup.
Don Cossack, Vautour (possibly) , Douvan (possibly) Cue Card, Djakadam, Coneygree let alone the second season chasers coming through….how can he possibly be half the price of some of these? Half the price in some places of the two previous winners??….madness. Even if we wins 3 or 4 novice chases in good style leading up to the gold cup, can he be considered favourite over the horses just mentioned? Not for me. He could be anything I agree, but anything but a gold cup favourite right now.The reason he’s so short is you can add another “(possibly)” to both Don Cossack and Coneygree given they’re both returning from injury. Djakadam has been exposed numerous times as being good but no world beater and Cue Card will be 12 years old. The second season chasers look average at the moment as Blaklion, Native River and co. are admirable sorts but have a very large hill to climb to be considered genuine Gold Cup contenders – much as I’d like them to.
It doesn’t necessarily make it right but I can see why Thistlecrack is the price he is, especially when you consider the fact that Tizzard horses invariably improve for a fence.
At this stage I wouldn’t want to be a backer but I wouldn’t want to be laying him either.
Newcastle 7/4
Scunthorpe 20/1
Doncaster 9/1
Tranmere 13/2E/W Yankee
+
Ross Mccormack (Vil*a) 9/1
Paddy Madden (Scunthorpe) 12/1
Andy Williams (Doncaster) 10/1
Andy Cook (Tranmere) 14/1E/W Yankee
Will Wings of Desire be running here?
No Nathan, Grand Prix de Paris instead.
A proper yawn-fest of a race this. 6/4 and 7/4 about Harzand and US Army Ranger respectively says it all.
Last week I re-read the tributes to Craig from the archive and was once again filled with emotion. That day, logging in for the regular poker night, I couldn’t believe what I was reading, I’d only met up with him a few weeks prior.
A lovely guy and still sorely missed.
I hope and pray that Debs and Luke have somehow continued to have a life filled with love and happiness. My thoughts will continue to be with them.
Lee
I see William Hill going 1/5 the odds for a place in the Derby. Every other firm on Oddschecker are 1/4 odds for the place.
The Racing Media should be drawing punters attention to this and shaming William Hill into falling in line.
Is this really against the punter’s interests Steve?
William Hill are best price on 16 of the 18 runners (although joint top on most, so it’s not quite as good as that fact suggests). Suspect the reason for the two at shorter prices is heavy liabilities. One of the two they are shorter on is US Army Ranger @ 7/2, so doubt they’d get much each way interest in that one anyway. The 1/5th odds enables a bookmaker to give bigger prices on more outsiders – which is good for some punters, particularly Win Only, but also each way punters who prefer better odds for the win part of the bet. Their top prices include all 14 outsiders priced from 12/1 to 200/1, they can only afford to do this because liabilities for the places are less with 1/5th odds.
Are you saying William Hill should be “shamed” in to “falling in line” by offering shorter prices for outsiders Steve? Because that would be the inevitable result.
I personally do not want bookmakers to bet the same way, there are plenty of bookmakers with smaller prices/bigger over-rounds offering 1/4 odds for punters who want it. William Hill’s 1/5th odds give punters a choice.
Just wish they’d give me an account to profit from their bigger priced outsiders.
That’s misleading Ginge.
They’re bigger because yet again they are one of the last bookies to go NRNB.
They are a two-bit bookie nowadays and I didn’t lose a seconds sleep the day they barred me.
Get it back from Definitely Red at 3:45 (11/4). Should have too much stamina for Double Shuffle on this rain softened ground and Full Shift is too inconsistent.
Think I’ve backed the winner of this race twice in the last 30 years though Fran (Run For Free and Merigo) so I wouldn’t hold too much sway in my opinion
All the money coming for Golden Chieftain today has forced me to revert to my original feeling and make him my selection so have just backed him e/w (5 places) despite my huge misgivings about the jockey. I genuinely feel unclean as I’ve avoided him ever since the clown went on a mile from home on notorious rogue Colour Squadron at Newton Abbot a couple of years back.
Peeing down all day at Ayr today and this race is going to take some getting tomorrow so if he stands up you’d be pretty confident he’ll be there or thereabouts. May have a saver on Milansbar at a bigger price in case I’m o’Briened again.
I’d have been all over Golden Chieftain if it wasn’t for Powell Jr deserting him for Royale Knight – who has no chance – and the replacement jock is fecking useless.
If the ground improves (unlikely) I’ll be on A Good Skin who’s trainer is in cracking form and the horse is 3/3 in April, showing improvement each year at spring time.
If the ground stays soft then Milansbar has very few doubts so would be my choice.
Any reason why you think he needs it good? Just wondering because i’m thinking of backing him as the run in the Kim Muir was nice and looks a thorough stayer, has won a point to point and a race on soft so why the doubt? Is Ayr known for being really tacky ground or something or did his class just get him through against inferior animals in those soft wins?
The latter as a) He’s a Presenting, b) Paddy Brennan after his Ludlow win last April (soft ground): “It’s probably as soft as A Good Skin wants out there but we have just got away with it. He is likely to have another run this spring but we will wait for faster conditions”, c) his worst run coming when well beaten in the New Years day handicap at Cheltenham when he was expected to put in a better performance based on price (vying for 2nd favorite behind Village Vic) and d) there’d be very slight stamina concerns and soft ground will only help expose those.
I’d have been all over Golden Chieftain if it wasn’t for Powell Jr deserting him for Royale Knight – who has no chance – and the replacement jock is fecking useless.
Powell junior didn’t desert him. Tizzard just gets whatever jockey he feels like. Could be Johnson today, scudamore tomorrow, Brennan the next day, o brien occasionally, Powell at the low grade tracks.
Since his son retired and Powell started riding him he’s ridden him in the last 18 consecutive races, including when he won the festival handicap on him dispelling a theory about low grade tracks. Only reason he jocks him off now is if he or the owners blame him for the recent falls.
Plus he was jocked up to ride Royale Knight at the 5 day dec stage and O’Brien wasn’t committed for Golden Chieftain until yesterday. Looks clear to me that Powell agreed to ride the Newland horse before a jock was found for Tizzard’s.
I’d have been all over Golden Chieftain if it wasn’t for Powell Jr deserting him for Royale Knight – who has no chance – and the replacement jock is fecking useless.
If the ground improves (unlikely) I’ll be on A Good Skin who’s trainer is in cracking form and the horse is 3/3 in April, showing improvement each year at spring time.
If the ground stays soft then Milansbar has very few doubts so would be my choice.
Cheers Bobby and sorry for the no-show but been away.
I’m fine with them not scoring anything but for completion I’d go for these;
Triumph – Gibralfaro. 2 pts win @ 10/1 (various)
RSA – Vyta Du Roc. 1 pt e/w @ 25/1 (various)
Arkle – Garde La Victoire. 1 pt e/w @ 20/1 (various)Lee
I was impressed by the jumping of Onenightinvienna today at Kempton when only narrowly beaten in a 4 runner 3m race. The winner was fantastic at his fences too, a real bold showing by both. However, I was very taken by Onenightinvienna who I would have to have under consideration for the 4 miler if he was to pitch up there in March. Today he probably was tapped for toe in the middle part of the race but was staying on stoutly at the end. After his good run behind Seeyouatmidnight at Cheltenham the RSA would have come under consideration but now I think it’s foregone conclusion that he doesn’t have the required speed for that test even though it’s over 3 miles. He’s 14/1 with William Hill and 12/1 with most of the other firms and I’ll certainly be backing him for this.
Totally agree. I was going to back him foe the 4 miler not long after his run behind Blaklion as I loved the attitude he showed up the hill despite being booked for 2nd. But I held fire due to Hobbs having entered up for a 2m4f race last week concerned that they still wanted to send him the RSA route.
I was hoping he’d be done for toe today to quash that idea, which he was, and the pushing out to 14/1 is a bonus
Has to be the 4 miler route now surely.
Lee
Good post photo_finish and I’d agree with 3/4 of those (I’m really keen on Buveur D’air) but Garde La Victoire is the best e/w value in the Arkle @ 16/1.
We know he’s going for this race and was closely matched with Vaniteux over hurdles yet has more jumping experience and will see the hill out better.
Incidentally Ladbrokes went 4/1 Arctic Fire in the w/o market straight after the ICH yesterday which with the NRNB protection was one of the greatest e/w bets you’ll ever see. Idiots.
Lee
