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Looking at the ante post markets I can see one stand out bet which is Djakadam in the Gold Cup, currently available at 16/1.
Second in the last 2 Gold Cups as a 6/7 year old he is surely not in decline. Willie Mullins does not appear to have any other candidates for the Gold Cup so I cannot see him being diverted to the Ryanair Chase as he already has several viable candidates for that race. In Djakadams last race the betting leading up to the race suggested that he would not be fully wound up, however he did not run badly, he jumped and travelled well. I cannot see him winning but with doubts about the participation of Cue Card,Coneygree and Don Cossack there is not much depth of opposition to keep him out of the frame other than Thistlecrack and Native River. This years Gold Cup may well have the smallest field for many years as few will want to take on Thistlecrack so 16/1 looks the best each way steal at the festival.
So what else is there where you can be confident of the race target and available at big odds. One that springs to mind is Black Hercules who admittedly has been disappointing this year but has shown his very best form on decent ground which he is likely to get at Cheltenham. I cannot see him running in the Gold Cup which leaves the Ryanair where he is currently available at 16/1.
So a £10 each way double with Djakadam and Black Hercules will give a healthy return if both are placed.
Do you have any other each way fancies where they are likely to run in a given race, are available at big odds and have a good chance of making the frame?Cross Country – Ballyboker Bridge 33/1
Champion Hurdle – MTOY 33/1
Champion Chase – Traffic Fluide 33/1
RSA – Alpha Des Obeaux – 20/1So much value. I have a bunch of multiples that I just love. They include the following horses;
Sizing John 33/1 Queen Mum, nonsense price. Likeliest winner if anything happens to Douvan IMO + nailed on for 2nd place at the very least.
Wholestone 16/1 Albert Bartlett. Big winning chance, nailed on for a place.
Alpha Des Obeaux 20/1 RSA. Cannot possibly finish outside the top 3.
My Tent Or Yours 50/1 Champion Hurdle. 12.5/1 for a horse who’s finished in the top 3 of 19/20 career starts, and placed at 3/3 Festivals.
I love L’Ami Serge Champion Hurdle 33/1, Capitaine Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 33/1 (big bubble waiting to burst in that market, at least 2 of the front 5 in the market won’t turn up, possibly even 4), Cause of Causes 33/1 Ultima Handicap, and I can’t think of any others right now.
Gold Cup Without Thistlecrack – Djakadam e/w @ 8/1
Champion Chase without Douvan – Sizing John @ 8/1Cracking each way double
My Tent Or Yours 50/1 Champion Hurdle. 12.5/1 for a horse who’s finished in the top 3 of 19/20 career starts, and placed at 3/3 Festivals.
You’re not getting 12.5/1 though Zarkava because the win part of your bet is effectively dead, meaning the odds are 6/1, which is more in line with the Betfair “to place” market.
My Tent Or Yours 50/1 Champion Hurdle. 12.5/1 for a horse who’s finished in the top 3 of 19/20 career starts, and placed at 3/3 Festivals.
You’re not getting 12.5/1 though Zarkava because the win part of your bet is effectively dead, meaning the odds are 6/1, which is more in line with the Betfair “to place” market.
They’re two separate bets, mate. Nothing to stop me laying the win part either. Maybe I can lay at 30s on the day, get a free bet at 20s to lay off in-running at 4.0 for a guaranteed profit when he comes cruising up, plus my original 12.5/1 for a place bet.
Not to mention that a few of the above placing, in EW multis, adds up to a pretty penny indeed.
Antepost risky enough in the win part. I’m always happy to have a few small stake multiples, but would rarely have an EW single and would need to be convinced that it was the horse’s target and he had a 95% chance of turning up.
CHAMPION HURDLE
I’m chancing a few quid on Ch’Tibello at 50/1 with Bet365 (and a couple of others). It would
be fair to say that things maybe went his way at Haydock when he had My tent Or Yours and
Old Guard behind him, but it was a fair run nonetheless. In the Christmas Hurdle, he looked
outpaced when they quickened, but he ran on stoutly at the end and finished a running on
5 1/2L behind Yanworth and 2 1/4L behind The New One (My Tent Or Yours 2 1/4 behind him). I think
the big thing that is in his favour, is that he is only 5 and open to more improvement at his age
than all those mentioned above. I think he’s definitely going the right way, and I like horses who
show guts and buckle down at the end of their races, he has that in spades. No guarantee he will
end up here, but if he does I expect him to be a lot lower than 50/1. Worth a shout I think
Does anyone know why CRACK MOME has drifted like a barge on Betfair and Paddy Power for the Supreme? I’ve backed it at 33s and got it in e/w doubles and trebles with MIN arkle (8s) and Bapaume triumph (25s). Im getting nervous
Probably best posted here rather than the other thread
Nichols Canyon is surely far too big here at 331/ as an each way bet?
You have to leave aside a slightly moderate run at Leopardstown last time (video suggests he ran right through the line though), I think he is a cracking price given his form.It looks like only one of Annie Power & Faugheen will run, and just possibly neither, and excepting Petit Mouchoir nothing else has impressed.
In the 10 races that Nicholls Canyon has run at 16-18f since joining Mullins he has won 6 of 10, placed 9 of 10 and won 5 Grade 1s in the process….he unseated rider in the only race he didn’t hit the board.
He was 3rd last year, in what at this stage looks a stronger race (granted that could change), the 2nd has deteriorated and the winner has been absent for a long time, it was 4 lengths back to the 4th.
I just cannot see this horse being aimed at the Stayers Hurdle, nothing in his profile or stable behaviour suggests he wants a 3 mile trip.
At 33s a decent each way poke, I think (1/4 odds, 3 places)
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