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Fancy Tenor Nivernais over this trip. Has been getting done for toe when pace has quickened in his last few runs over 2 1/2 miles. Looks to be crying out for 3 miles nowadays and going should be on the soft side which he needs. Taken some of the 20s ew.
This is one of my favourite races and very good for trends!
Without knowing Mr Henderson’s running plans I am slightly snookered as I believe he holds the key!
My outsider ran in the race last year but has had a quieter run up this season so I am hoping Foxcub could go close at nice odds of 28/1.
My main bet though is Dawalan who hits numerous trends and has looked good winning but also in defeat and at 10/1 looks good value, thoughts?
Geraghty down to ride Dawalan in the decs. Must have a massive chance. Taken some of the 9s.
I keep going back to Dark ruler and think will be there abouts.
Fancy Dark Ruler’s stable mate Aramist. Should love the conditions and won’t mind if it turns into a slog.
8mm of rain at Longchamp last night – going now officially soft according to International Racing Bureau.
Praying that the going remains on the good side for Domination. Backed it ew before Pricewise tipped it up and also got it in a £20 win double with Educate.
I also backed Talent – to win only at 14s – and think she was beaten fair and square. She’s obviously not an easy ride – doesn’t like to be surrounded by other horses especially early on in a race so think Crowley had no choice but to have her out the back. Talent looked the likely winner 3 out and although slightly impeded 2 out I got the feeling that the winner could have pulled out a bit more if needed late on.
Don’t expect Manning to go off too quick, but gradually wind things up down the home straight. If he can conserve a bit of energy I can see Trading Leather outgunning the field on his favoured quick ground.
Moonlight Cloud was a bit unlucky in the race last year getting badly checked 2 out and did well to finish as close as she did. Broke the track record last week over the extended 6 and seems to be better than ever this year. Dawn Approach has had some tough races and may have lost a bit of his Guineas sparkle. Intello doesn’t seem to have beaten much and may find the mile a bit too sharp. MC for me.
Phew that was close. Left them for dead a furlong out and just held on but what a brilliant filly she is.
Moonlight Cloud was a bit unlucky in the race last year getting badly checked 2 out and did well to finish as close as she did. Broke the track record last week over the extended 6 and seems to be better than ever this year. Dawn Approach has had some tough races and may have lost a bit of his Guineas sparkle. Intello doesn’t seem to have beaten much and may find the mile a bit too sharp. MC for me.
Can’t see Cue Card getting things his own way up front and with doubts around the participation of some of the others at the top of the betting I think the 15/2 on Riverside Theatre looks big. A prep run would have been nice but I’m not convinced that’s a big issue and expect Henderson to have Riverside at peak fitness come next Thursday.
3:30 Wincanton
51 points @ 7/2 (VC) Islandmagee* (min 3/1)Ginge
Are you still able to get bets on with the majority of online bookies? Due to some moderate success over the last couple of years I’ve had most of my accounts closed or restricted and yet you seem to be able to still get on with numerous firms which is suprising given your success.
Stan James no longer take my bets Westender and one or two seem close to doing so. VC seem to keep me on because I have a lot of bets the night before. Tipping them off who is going to be backed; as every main bet is immediately shortened (within a few minutes, sometimes seconds); don’t allow me BOG either. Most other bookmakers go to their "trader" to say yes, allow the bet in full; half the stake, no each way or refuse it totally. One or two I haven’t got accounts with, where hope I can open if the others are closed. Where I have trouble getting on, I’ll need to take a betfair price or even slightly reduced price with another bookmaker to get on…
However Westender, this is an advisory thread. So I am not going to advise my follower to take a shorter price than he himself can take and include BOG in results even if sometimes I am refused it myself. But it doesn’t make much difference to results and obviously don’t include my bets near off time or on course.
What probably helps me is (although not the way today) I am not really a favourite backer; at least not usually my main bet. So when I win big the bookmaker also tends to win over all. Unless it is the fact I have so many bets in races it confuses them.
I also don’t have that many each way thieves bets where they favour backers over bookmakers. I don’t follow tipsters and am sure any punters concentrating on Tom Segal and Hugh Taylor – where when they win small – the bookmaker loses big… So will have their accounts closed in double quick time. I take little or no notice of "top trainers/jockeys" and other things a lot of punters tend to follow. So when bookmakers have bad days I usually have a bad day.I am no heavy hitter Westender, Dave Nevison said in his book something like "there are professional gamblers who make millions and there are pro’s making a lavatory cleaners wage". I am towards the latter end. So there isn’t the same incentive for bookmakers to close my accounts. Suspect you bet in larger amounts than I do Westender.
Are you named after the horse who chased home my biggest win, Rooster Booster? Had several saver bets that day, but did not include Westender. Crossing everything as Johnson jumped the last!
Thanks Ginge
No, not named after the horse. From West London originally so have used that username or variations on forums over the years. I’ve had several 4 figure wins but all were my own fancies so not down to following any tipsters. Can still get on with a couple of the bigger online firms but probably do more bets on Betfair.
3:30 Wincanton
51 points @ 7/2 (VC) Islandmagee* (min 3/1)Ginge
Are you still able to get bets on with the majority of online bookies? Due to some moderate success over the last couple of years I’ve had most of my accounts closed or restricted and yet you seem to be able to still get on with numerous firms which is suprising given your success.
All the 14s on Wizz Kid now gone – not surprising with the prospect of going on the easy side.
Moonlight Cloud won impressively over the weekend at Longchamp and will hopefully take her chance at Ascot.Fancy her to push Black Caviar all the way and have backed her ew.
I also don’t have that many each way thieves bets where they favour backers over bookmakers. I don’t follow tipsters and am sure any punters concentrating on Tom Segal and Hugh Taylor – where when they win small – the bookmaker loses big… So will have their accounts closed in double quick time. I take little or no notice of "top trainers/jockeys" and other things a lot of punters tend to follow. So when bookmakers have bad days I usually have a bad day.