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  • #19776
    GingertipsterGingertipster
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    Free Horse Racing Tips from Gingertipster

    First two bets of this season.

    It seems to me bookmakers are still to react to the new mid distance novice chase at the Festival. Am convinced it pulls horses away from the big two if there’s a stand out candidate.

    Very few potential novice chasers have ever had better hurdling ratings as Peddlers Cross and Grand Crus, yet they aren’t priced that much shorter than others. Must surely have a better than 12.5% and 11.1% (respectively) chance? Albeit there’s a chance they might switch back to smaller obstacles if things don’t go as planned. But if they’re not good enough in this field there’s little point in continuing anyway. If just one turns up at a price shorter than 100/30 then I’ve got value. Both horses go on both soft and good ground. Cheltenham never gets firm these days.

    2012 Arkle Chase Cheltenham
    40 points @ 7/1 (b365 bog) Peddlers Cross

    2012 RSA Chase Cheltenham
    38 points @ 8/1 (b365) Grand Crus

    value is everything
    #373190
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    From Last year:

    2012 Cheltenham Gold Cup
    27 points @ 12/1 (L) Time For Rupert

    Unfortunately, Time For Rupert disappointed in the RSA just after this bet. Nowhere near his best there, never looking happy and a lung infection was diagnosed afterwards. Looked a top class recruit in all other races over fences, having chased home Big Bucks in the 2010 World Hurdle.
    With stable mates Captain Chris and Wishful Thinking plus Master Minded not certain to get the trip or be aimed at the race. Weapons Amnesty attempting to come back from injury, Diamond Harry likewise. Kauto Star and Denman now twelve years old…. Time For Rupert looks value at now top priced 16/1 as the obvious alternative to Long Run who’ll be difficult to beat. I am thinking about a saver @ 5/2.

    value is everything
    #374431
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    Charlie Hall Chase Wetherby
    38 points @ 7/2 (WH bog) Time For Rupert
    14 points @ 11/4 (WH bog) Diamond Harry

    value is everything
    #374438
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    Charlie Hall Chase Wetherby
    38 points @ 7/2 (WH bog) Time For Rupert
    14 points @ 11/4 (WH bog) Diamond Harry

    In my opinion these two’s combined chance is a fair bit better than 50%. At the moment it is a shade odds against.
    Massive fan of

    Time For Rupert

    (hence my Gold Cup bet). Top class over hurdles, chasing home Big Buck’s in the World Hurdle. Looked a top class staying chaser in the making, winning easily more than once at Cheltenham. Form with one of his potential Wetherby rivals Chicago Grey and Racing Post Chase winner Quinz would’ve easily seen him win the RSA. Unfortunately, Time For Rupert disappointed there. Nowhere near his best, never looking happy and a lung infection was diagnosed afterwards. Good reports this Autumn suggests Time For Rupert is over what ailed him and can resume progression for his in form trainer.
    Time For Rupert will have to be better than ever to beat a spot on

    Diamond Harry

    . Impeccable record fresh. Despite this being his third season over fences, is so lightly raced could yet improve. Last year’s Hennessey winner should be difficult to beat if in A1 condition.

    Poquelin is a good yardstick, though possibly at his very best at Cheltenham. Probably up to beating an average Charlie Hall field, but this is probably a better race than usual and he is exposed.
    Last year’s winner Nacarat is another exposed sort, now a 10 year old. One who seems of similar ability to Poquelin. Best chance of winning could be getting a soft lead. Travels well and will possibly be favoured by the new whip rules.
    Weird Al’s change of stables and breathing oporation will have to work miracles to win this.
    Chicago Grey is held on form by Time For Rupert.

    value is everything
    #374658
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    2:45 Wetherby
    34 points @ 5/1 (VC) Restless Harry

    Saver to come.

    value is everything
    #374664
    KINGFISHERKINGFISHER
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    Nacarat is another exposed sort, now a 10 year old. Best chance of winning could be getting a soft lead. Travels well and will possibly be favoured by the new whip rules.

    An excellent write-up there Ginge regarding this years Charlie Hall,i would agree with all of it…..I’m interested to know why you think that

    Nacarat

    will be favoured by the new whip rules more than the others though?

    #374667
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    Nacarat is a front runner Gord. With whips restricted to eight strokes horses possibly find it more difficult to make ground up from rear, especially in a slowly run race. Nacarat might not be taken on here. He’s also an enthusiastic galloper who travels well in his races, so unlikely to need the whip as much as lazy types to show his/their best.

    value is everything
    #374672
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    2:45 Wetherby
    34 points @ 5/1 (VC) Restless Harry

    Can’t wait forever for a saver.
    9 points @ 4/1 (b365) Carlito Brigante

    value is everything
    #374673
    KINGFISHERKINGFISHER
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    Nacarat is a front runner Gord. With whips restricted to eight strokes horses possibly find it more difficult to make ground up from rear, especially in a slowly run race. Nacarat might not be taken on here. He’s also an enthusiastic galloper who travels well in his races, so unlikely to need the whip as much as lazy types to show his/their best.

    Fair comment Ginge,i believe long term

    Time for Rupert

    would leave them behind but if he is taken off his feet by Nacarat today he could get sloppy and he is one for the odd persuader,i believe the ground could catch Rupert out today and if i was having my arm twisted in what looks a tricky contest i would take

    Poquelin

    to bounce off the ground and just sit and sit with Ruby biding his time,on this ground i expect him to stay this extra trip,its a race to watch for me i’m afraid.

    #374684
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    2:45 Wetherby
    34 points @ 5/1 (VC) Restless Harry

    Can’t wait forever for a saver.
    9 points @ 4/1 (b365) Carlito Brigante

    Robin Dickin hasn’t had many first time out winners in the past, but two of his three winners (of just 11 runners) in the last three weeks were first time out. So am willing to give the admirable

    Restless Harry

    a chance here. Genuine and able to go from the front or held up. Third in the Coral Hurdle at Ascot was at 2m3f on good ground, so should have enough speed for this. Although went without a win last term, was highly tried and far from discredited. Placed behind Such as Silviniaco Conti (Ascot), Big Buck’s and Grands Crus. Nothing in this line up near that standard, unless What A Friend can reproduce his chase form.
    What A Friend is obviously a good horse, but has two ways of running. Inconsistent and temperamental, not one to back when favourite. Is nowhere near certain to be as good over hurdles (always looked a chasing type). New whip rules may not be in his favour, can idle badly. With Wetherby’s last fence close to the finish not suiting hold up horses either. Having said all that, IF he can reproduce chase form won’t need to come under much presure.
    Ashkazar is another old rogue. Well, only seven but seems to have been around for some time. By far his best run last season at Cheltenham coming from rear to win a very strongly run big field handicap. On that form has a good chance, but this is likely to be a totally different proposition. Also almost pulled up in World Hurdle on final start so has question marks against him.

    Carlito Brigante

    loves coming over from Ireland to win some of our good prize money. Amongst others, won Coral Cup (2 1/2 miles) with a bit in hand. Did not figure when a distant fourth to Big Buck’s at Aintree, but good third to Quevega under similar conditions to today at Punchestown. So probably stays this trip under fairly speedy conditions. Last on the all weather earlier this month, but finished "clinically unsound". Am willing to forgive him for a saver bet.
    Fair Along has a brilliant record in the Autumn / fresh, winner of this the last two years. However, prices more than take that in to account. This looks a better race and could struggle if the other market leaders are fit.
    Mobaasher has a reasonable record in this race too, but has a poor win/run ratio and trainer Rod Millman (moved from Venitia Williams) is in poor form. Not good enough anyway…
    Something that also applies to Russian War who’s won a couple of nice British handicaps for his excellent Irish trainer Gordon Elliot. Stable companion seems to stand a better chance.
    Cantlow shouldn’t be good enough on form, but has more scope for improvement and stable in running well. Can’t be ruled out.

    value is everything
    #374687
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    Nacarat is a front runner Gord. With whips restricted to eight strokes horses possibly find it more difficult to make ground up from rear, especially in a slowly run race. Nacarat might not be taken on here. He’s also an enthusiastic galloper who travels well in his races, so unlikely to need the whip as much as lazy types to show his/their best.

    Fair comment Ginge,i believe long term

    Time for Rupert

    would leave them behind but if he is taken off his feet by Nacarat today he could get sloppy and he is one for the odd persuader,i believe the ground could catch Rupert out today and if i was having my arm twisted in what looks a tricky contest i would take

    Poquelin

    to bounce off the ground and just sit and sit with Ruby biding his time,on this ground i expect him to stay this extra trip,its a race to watch for me i’m afraid.

    You’re right as far as the whip is concerned with Time For Rupert. But on hurdles form he’d walk it. If he’s to make the expected improvement in to Gold Cup standard should at least go close here. Could run around a stone below Gold Cup winning form and still win this. I make him a 26% chance today, so around 7/2 (22%) looks worth a bet, especially with Webber going so well. Poquelin certainly has his chance, especially if they don’t go a pace but it isn’t Cheltenham.

    value is everything
    #374713
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    Charlie Hall Chase Wetherby
    38 points @ 7/2 (WH bog) Time For Rupert
    14 points @ 11/4 (WH bog) Diamond Harry

    Oops! :oops:

    Was thinking these bets were on early final decs. But not, at least I have the bonus of Time For Rupert at 7/2 not 9/4.

    Now a saver:
    12 points @ 9/2 (b365) Nacarat

    value is everything
    #374798
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    Results

    2:45 Wetherby
    34 points @ 5/1 (VC)

    Restless Harry

    (SP 7/2)

    1st

    Return 204
    9 points @ 4/1 (b365) Carlito Brigante
    (43)

    +161 points

    3:20 Wetherby
    38 points @ 7/2 (WH bog) Time For Rupert (SP 11/8) 2nd
    14 points @ 11/4 (WH bog) Diamond Harry DNR
    12 points @ 9/2 (b365) Nacarat
    -64

    Days Stakes 107, Days Return 204,

    Days Profit 97 points

    value is everything
    #375246
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    2:50 Exeter Haldon Gold Cup
    41 points @ 11/4 (WH bog) Ghizao

    Another one to come in this race.

    value is everything
    #375256
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    2:50 Exeter Haldon Gold Cup
    41 points @ 11/4 (WH bog) Ghizao

    Another one to come in this race.

    Captain Chris has bags of potential over further this year, but needed a truly run 2 miles at Cheltenham to produce his best. Although Exeter is a stiff track, this is far from certain to be truly run. Thunder Child is a front runner who is outclassed here and may well be ignored. I’d rather take him on at the price.

    Ghizao

    could well develop in to a Champion Chase candidate. May well have beaten Finian’s Rainbow at Aintree last year but for a mistake two out. Came to hand at this time of year last year and has speed to burn. Equally effective on good or soft ground and Nicholls is in fine form.

    Medermit was my choice in the Arkle when favourite. Didn’t prove quick enough there, but there’s some temperament in him (ran out once) and it’s possible he needs plenty of driving whatever the distance. Stable is in good form but seems poorly priced to me.

    Zaarito only ran once last season in December, when second to Golden Dilver. Has a chance if all is well with him and market support today suggests that to be the case. Does however, need to improve his jumping to realise potential. Fell four times in his novice year.

    Cornas ran ok in France last time but looks the most exposed of these. Not the most consistent. This is probably the right way around for him these days and is a course winner. Trainer Nick Williams hasn’t had many winners lately.

    Oiseau De Nuit

    won the Grand Annual last year with this 7 lb claimer on board. Much improved in the Spring but has won first time out before. If fully fit could go close here at a big price.

    value is everything
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