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Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle Cheltenham Festival
23 points @ 14/1 (WH) Fingal BayValue Is EverythingGreatwood Hurdle
This does not look that open this year. For me Pateese and Moon Dice are ahead of the field. More so than their prices suggest. Pateese ran away with what looked a competitive event at Sandown. Arguabley his best two runs have been at the Esher track. But second in the other Greatwood Hurdle at Newbury was his best performance up to then. So left handed shouldn’t bother him. Quick return to the track the only possible negative.
Moon Dice is rapidly improving and why he hasn’t got a "p" in Timeform baffles me. Mihghtily impressive in his last two races. Very encouraging to hear Imperial Call’s words from the trainer too.
I make Pateese a fair 4/1 shot and Moon Dice 6/1. Available at 5/1 and 15/2.
The only other I make value is Abergavenny. Winner of three Micky Mouse races in the summer. Difficult to assess, could be anything or nothing. Has inexperience to overcome, but at around 33/1 on betfair is worth taking a chance with.
Thought I was going to back A Media Luz, but she’s been heavily backed on Saturday and suspect it’s Pricewise this morning. Went through his last race like the best horse until headstrong tendencies took their toll, weakening badly late on. Trouble is that seems just parr for the course. If, big IF she settles will be hard to beat. This is a stiff track and it’s hard to get home. May be a good ground Tote Gold Trophy will be her best chance of a big one. I need 14/1 to back her today. Stable are in magnificent form this week though and should be respected. Could be a back to lay, but the market is getting wiser to such tactics these days.
Of the rest, Third Intention and Kumbashwar don’t have to drift that far for me to get involved. Both shaped well behind Brampour last time.
My 100% book:
Pateese 4/1, Moon Dice 6/1
, A Media Luz 12/1, Brampour 14/1, Kumbashwar 16/1, Third Intention 16/1, Via Galilie 18/1,
Abergavenny 18/1
, Jack Cool 20/1, Sactuaire 25/1, Captain Clouseau 28/1, Olofi 28/1, Ultimate 50/1, Alarian 66/1, The Betchworth Kid 66/1, Son Of Flicka 66/1, Nearby 66/1, Oldrick 80/1, Viva Colonia 80/1, Topolski 100/1, Eightybarackstreet 150/1, Palawi 150/1, Andhaar 200/1, Harry Tricker 300/1
Value Is EverythingHennessey Gold Cup
38 points @ 8/1 (VC) Great EndeavourWith three progressive staying chasers seemingly gong for the Betfair Chase instead, this looks easier to win than normal. Great Endeavour looks very well handicapped after winning the Paddy Power with ease. There is a doubt about stamina, yet to win in three attempts at 3 miles plus. However, that does not tell the whole story…
Close third to Lie Forrit in a 3m1f110yrds handicap hurdle in soft ground at Cheltenham, his best performance up to that point.
Fell in last year’s 3m110yrds handicap chase on good ground at the Festival. Hardly surprising Great Endeavour was so tired two out when coming to grief. Murphy caught out the back as the tapes went up. Despite the strong pace rushed around most of the field to get his customary prominent position and eventually took it up. Did remarkabley well all things considered to be still there two out. Had Great Endeavour got a more conventional prominent ride, in my opinion he’d have at least been placed and would’ve stayed the trip. Newbury is another two furlongs but isn’t such a stiff course.
After such a hard race it wasn’t surprising Aintree came too soon and beaten two out over 3m1f on good ground.
Although still not certain to get 3m2f110yrds at Newbury (particularly if it’s testing ground), has a far better chance of doing so than a quick glance at the "form" (figures) suggest.
Value Is EverythingBetfair Chase
25 points @ 6/1 (L) Diamond Harry
22 points @ 9/1 (C) Time For RupertValue Is EverythingBetfair Chase
25 points @ 6/1 (L) Diamond Harry
22 points @ 9/1 (C) Time For RupertLong Run is the obvious one on form, but wasn’t at his best first time out last year, albeit (as far as I remember) Henderson wasn’t in as good form then. More of a worry is Long Run’s jumping. Nicky gave an interview not so long ago that he needed some work on that side of things. Might be a little rusty first time out, didn’t run or jump well in the Paddy Power.
Diamond Harry
has a superb record first time out / fresh. Lame before an intended run in the Charlie Hall. Harry is a light framed individual who doesn’t take much getting fit, so should be ok, market support suggests the same. Goes well on good ground and flat left handed courses. Stable going well now.
Kauto Star is arguabley the best chaser since Arkle. Danger to all even on last year’s Gold Cup form. Weakened late after being up there from the start. May be better at 3 miles than 3m2f ridden that way. Market suppost will be key to his chance tomorrow. If thought up to the task will not be allowed to go off anywhere near 7/1. However, 11 years old bordering on 12 and evidence suggests is on the downgrade fast.
Weird Al is interesting, not only rekindled but improved in the Betfair for his new trainer Donald McCain. Didn’t go on after a reappearance win last year for Ian Williams, but has had a breathing op’ since. Originally McCain did say he wondered if the Hennessey would come too soon and this is a week earlier. Goes on the ground and acts well on a flat left handed track.
Time For Rupert
is a stayer and this might be a little too short for him. Cheltenham will suit him better than Haydock. However, wasn’t that far away from Weird Al at Wetherby. Provided William Kennedy goes a fast enough pace to bring stamina in to play 9/1 could prove an over-reaction to pace doubts. Stable continue in good form. Time For Rupert was a top class hurdler who jumps fences well, probably has more improvement in him than any of his rivals.
Pure Faith was flattered in the Old Roan, with neither Alberta’s Run or Master Minded anywhere near their best.
Value Is EverythingAmlin Chase Ascot
31 points @ 8/1 (WH) Kalahari KingSaver:
13 points @ 5/2 (BSQ) SomersbyOn the form of his first Queen Mother Chase win, Master Minded would walk this. Hasn’t been of that standard since. Well below even last year’s form on reappearance. Although he might come on for Aintree, but needs to by some way here. Must have been pleasing Nicholls at the time, as the Old Roan was a change of plan. Impressive in the Melling Chase in the Spring, with Somersby well beaten in third. I make Master Minded joint favourite with Somersby tomorrow.
Somersby
probably didn’t need to be at his best first time to beat Hennessey favourite Aiteen Thirty Three in a three runner race. Hen Knight seems in better form than is often the case and Somersby at last runs over a distance likely to suit. Not that consistent, ran really good race here when second to Master minded in the strongly run Victor Chandler at two miles, staying on all the way to the line and just failing. Possibly a little flattered by that (winner went for home in earnest from too far out) but even so deseves plenty of credit.
Medermit ran well in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter on reappearance. But that race didn’t take as much winning as it seemed beforehand. Both favourites not at their best. Captain Chris fell when probable winner and Ghizao made mistakes and never looked happy. Second home Cornas seems thoroughly exposed. This trip might bring out a bit of improvement, but it needs to to figure.
Kalahari King
isn’t exactly consistent. Not won since Blue Square Handicap at Doncaster in February 2010. Has run a few promising races in defeat. Notably at the Cheltenham Festival and Ascot. Badly hampered in Victor Chandler (4th) when starting his move. Gets 10 lbs from Master Minded and 6 lbs from both Somersby and Medermit. Not at best on reappearance, but Ferdy never has his cherry ripe for prep runs. Divers ran awful before a good Paddy Power placed effort. Kalahari King bled when pulled up behind master Minded at Aintree. Something which makes an each way bet unwise in my opinion. (I got stung with a couple of similar types last week). Tongue tie for the first time might help. Despite all the negatives 8/1 is too big to ignore.
Stagecoach Pearl won the handicap Kalahari King was only 5th in. However, everything we know about him suggests he’s not good enough. Likeable front running veteran The Sawyer even more so.
Value Is EverythingThanks Gord, will do my best.
2:45 Ascot Coral Hurdle
54 points @ 3/1 (L) OverturnValue Is EverythingThanks Gord, will do my best.
2:45 Ascot Coral Hurdle
54 points @ 3/1 (L) OverturnIt’s difficult to see why
Overturn
is so big at 3/1. Not proven at 2m3f110yrds over hurdles, but he won the Chester Cup at less than a furlong shorter on the flat. Usually a horse will stay far longer over hurdles than on the level. Stayers on the flat usually turn out to need 3 miles or more over hurdles. I wouldn’t expect that to be the case with Overturn, his enthusiasm means he may not get that far but 2m3f should be well within capabilities. Might even improve at it. Stable in very good form. Only negative is outsider Lough Derg. Not that the Pipe veteran is thought a likely winner. It’s the fact Overturn might be taken on for the lead. there is a possibility he needs to lead. We know goes well on a sound surface and ran well after a break when second to Binocular at Kempton.
No doubt Oscar Whiskey is a top class racehorse, but he has to give 8 lbs to the selection. Mightily impressive over a similar trip in the Aintree Hurdle. Also third in Champion Hurdle with Overturn well beaten, but undulating tracks probably don’t suit the McCain runner. Oscar Whiskey is likely to make up in to Big Buck’s biggest rival for the Stayers Hurdle. Worthy favourite here, but shouldn’t be anywhere near as short in my opinion.
King Of The Night is much improved this season on a sound surface. Five length winner of 2m5f Class 2 handicap under a big weight last time. Deserves this step up in grade and faster they go the better his chance. However, seems plenty short enough.
For Non Stop has fallen on two of last three starts (one over fences) and bled on the other. Looked capable of better at Cheltenham Festival but has a lot to find here. Possibly went for home too soon in Coral Cup, weakening when fell final flight.
Katchit is lightly raced in recent years and comes here after over a year off with a leg injury. Not seen at his best since given a very hard race to win 2008 Champion Hurdle. Will need to be right back to that form to win this. Trip shouldn’t be a problem.
Lough Derg might get taken on by Overturn up front. Now an eleven year old and didn’t give much encouragement just 10 days ago. Likes Ascot the only real positive.
Orsippius hasn’t won over obstacles since I backed him to win the Anniverary Hurdle. Isn’t up to this standard.
Afsoun was once a top class hurdler, not anymore. Does not enjoy racing these days either.
Value Is Everything
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It’s difficult to see why
Overturn
is so big at 3/1. Not proven at 2m3f110yrds over hurdles, but he won the Chester Cup at less than a furlong shorter on the flat. Usually a horse will stay far longer over hurdles than on the level. Stayers on the flat usually turn out to need 3 miles or more over hurdles.
Gingertipster Dec 01, 2010:
Just because a horse is a stayer on the flat, does not make it so over obsticles.Nice to see that the odd pearl can penetrate even your obdurate cranium, Ginger.
You’ve taken only part of a quote Reet.
It’s difficult to see why
Overturn
is so big at 3/1. Not proven at 2m3f110yrds over hurdles, but he won the Chester Cup at less than a furlong shorter on the flat. Usually a horse will stay far longer over hurdles than on the level. Stayers on the flat usually turn out to need 3 miles or more over hurdles.
I wouldn’t expect that to be the case with Overturn, his enthusiasm means he may not get that far but 2m3f should be well within capabilities.
Just because a horse is a stayer on the
flat
doesn’t mean it is going to be a stayer over
jumps
. Remember Royal Gait?
What can be said is, stayers on the flat are "
usually
" stayers over jumps. "
Usually
" means more than 50%, or "more often than not".
As I said in the above quote (the bit you missed out Reet
), I wouldn’t expectflat stayer
Overturn to turn out to be a
jumps stayer
. ie I do
not
expect him to be a
3m+
horse over
jumps
. However, I
do expect
Overturn to get
2m3f
today.
Value Is Everything
), I wouldn’t expect- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.