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Very impressive win for Flintshire yesterday. Only four starts but that’s two in the row and no surprise given his profile that he is now favourite or disputing favouritism for the Arc. Despite taking a pull off a slow pace he quickened up really well and was value for a good deal more than the winning margin. The race wasn’t run to suit but he bolted up. I suspect if that had been Intello winning yesterday he would have promoted to around 5/2.
He should settle better in a bigger field and the connections obviously have the option to run a pacemaker. The one major concern would be the ground but if the rain stays away at this stage given luck in running I can’t see anything to beat him.
Looking at the possible opposition Treve has been very impressive but displays so much speed there has to be a concern about her getting home. As far as I am aware no decision has been taken regarding whether she is to be supplemented. Intello is another with stamina concerns and I doubt whether many Arc winners have had a preparation that included dropping back to a mile. Personally, I doubt that he is going to run – it would be no surprise if Fabre knew Flintshire was his Arc horse from the moment he ran away with the Chantilly race. Al Kazeem is probably the best of our challenge but I don’t think just beating off Mukhadram is good enough. There is huge difference between suggesting a horse will be better over a longer trip and actually proving it. I think his optimum is a stiff mile and a quarter but as he appears to be sticking to that trip we will not find out about any possible stamina limitations until Arc day. He has won over the trip but that Newmarket race was a slowly run affair which effectively played to his strengths.
Well done to anyone who took the 16/1 Flintshire prior to yesterday, because of the ground concerns I wouldn’t touch the 6/1 but I wouldn’t be rushing to take him on either.
Back in march I did my ante post bets on the arc as always…
Gentildonna and gold ship have fallen by the wayside which really annoyed me as i rated goldship a certainty. Nevermind. And intello is surely a doubtful runner so I am left with a meagre £2.50 on novellist at 130/1 and kizuna £7 at 24/1
However after Saturday I couldn’t be happier with novellist and for those of you who haven’t seen kizuna in the Japanese derby have a look. He ran the final 3 furlongs the quickest after meeting trouble. He runs on arc trials day all being well lets hope yutaka take is on a going day.
For a while I have backed German and Japanese horses where ever I can and now I hope one of these can capture the arc this year!
Novellist – loads of form on soft ground AND breaks the track record on faster going in the King George.
Now he’s won back in Germany despite an unsuitable slow pace early on.
Why WON’T he win the Arc?
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I think Trials day today may warm this years race, and this thread, up a little!
Four very impressive runs (1st 2 in Niel and the other two winners), with Orfevre for me probably a cut above. Perhaps a vintage race in prospect, we could do with a good winner after last years fluke.
After today’s events still quite happy with my ante-post pair of Flintshire (16/1) and Treve (12/1).
Flintshire shouldn’t have run today and he will almost certainly not run in the Arc on soft ground but should the ground dry out in the next three weeks I would be pretty confident of him turning the tables on the front three. He will not be a 10/1 shot if it does.
Treve was very poorly positioned and it was hard not to be impressed with her turn of speed. Not sure the race told us much more about her stamina but she wasn’t stopping at the end. She could easily be another special filly for the Head family.
Some punters appear to have something of a fixation with the Japanese runners. Unfortunately, they are no longer leftfield and the market doesn’t miss them. Kizuna ran well enough today but on his preffered ground I would have Flintshire two or three lengths better than Ruler Of The World. Orfevre was well positioned to easily win a weak race. I suspect it will be a good bit tougher to win the 2013 Arc than last year’s version so at current odds for me he is no value.
Orfevre certainly the most talented but I am not sure he is the brightest (or perhaps the luckiest) and keeping his big, silly head in front at the crucial stage in a larger field will be more problematic.
I thought Treve got a very educational ride in the Vermeille with a view to the likely traffic problems of the Arc, which she responded to impressively. The problem with Foy is that it is so unlike the Arc in terms of numbers, pace, draw bias that it is a less useful trial.
Considering also the built-in 3yo bias and I would prefer Treve from yesterday’s trials at this stage.Still not sure how the Japanese horse didnt win it last year…wasnt that great a race even. This years looks a hell of a race. The only thing I am sure of is that if its true that Treve needs to be held up, Id worry about it getting a run in such a good field with large amount of runners.
If it turned up good ground, I,d like to be on the Fugue ew but chances are I wont have a bet.
SHL
The Japanese horse will win as long as he doesn’t go too early like last year not forgetting he went round the houses last year aswell.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I had no interest in Flintshire at 5/1 but 14/1 was tempting. He’s been tickled back into 12/1 now but obviously if it is soft his chance is greatly compromised. Treve has looked very good indeed but I am not sure a defeat of Wild Coco is really top drawer form and she’s very short now. At just a half point less Orfevre looks a much more solid option in my mind. I toyed with backing him when he was 8/1 but missed the boat and it’s too late to catch another one. My old pal Al Kazeem hasn’t got much chance now in my opinion. I expected a prep run on more suitable ground but they went to the well again on the fast surface and he now looks very vulnerable and his best days may be gone.
I am not convinced this is as good a renewal as some are saying. Following on from Al Kazeem’s downturn in fortune, Flintshire has more than doubled in price after his own defeat, Intello is not a certain runner by any means, Treve may not be quite as hot as she has looked and Novellist’s win looks less exciting now that Cirrus des Aigles has shown himself way short of the "Best horse in the World" tag that he carried at the time of the King George. Kizuna and Ruler of the World had little between them last time but I don’t fancy either of them when thinking about this year’s Derby form.
If I had to pick one it would be Orfevre and I’m pretty confident he’ll do the business.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Someone told me Pricewise had tipped up Flintshire in todays post?
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I had no interest in Flintshire at 5/1 but 14/1 was tempting. He’s been tickled back into 12/1 now but obviously if it is soft his chance is greatly compromised. Treve has looked very good indeed but I am not sure a defeat of Wild Coco is really top drawer form and she’s very short now. At just a half point less Orfevre looks a much more solid option in my mind. I toyed with backing him when he was 8/1 but missed the boat and it’s too late to catch another one. My old pal Al Kazeem hasn’t got much chance now in my opinion. I expected a prep run on more suitable ground but they went to the well again on the fast surface and he now looks very vulnerable and his best days may be gone.
I am not convinced this is as good a renewal as some are saying. Following on from Al Kazeem’s downturn in fortune, Flintshire has more than doubled in price after his own defeat, Intello is not a certain runner by any means, Treve may not be quite as hot as she has looked and Novellist’s win looks less exciting now that Cirrus des Aigles has shown himself way short of the "Best horse in the World" tag that he carried at the time of the King George. Kizuna and Ruler of the World had little between them last time but I don’t fancy either of them when thinking about this year’s Derby form.
If I had to pick one it would be Orfevre and I’m pretty confident he’ll do the business.
Great to see you back Stevie Boy!!!! Hope you well mate!
I really liked the filly. They have always rated Wild Coco at Warren Place especially on soft ground and I thought TQ had surely pinched it at the top of the straight. The way Treve picked her up was super impressive and there were big gaps back to the rest. She might need luck in running but and I’d like to wait til the draw but she’ll surely go close.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Someone told me Pricewise had tipped up Flintshire in todays post?
Yes he did. Manndawi left down the form yesterday with a poor run in a minor event. In fact, a lot of horses flinthshire has beaten haven’t gone on to much have they?
I have backed morandi ew at huge prices. Not sure he is even running and he needs lots of rain but who knows, the stars might align.
SHL
Someone told me Pricewise had tipped up Flintshire in todays post?
Yes he did. Manndawi left down the form yesterday with a poor run in a minor event. In fact, a lot of horses flinthshire has beaten haven’t gone on to much have they?
I have backed morandi ew at huge prices. Not sure he is even running and he needs lots of rain but who knows, the stars might align.
Yesterday’s race at Saint Cloud was run on totally different ground and probably of most significance was that the fact it was won by another Fabre horse considered way behind Flintshire.
As to beating nothing you could probably level that even more at Orfevre and he is a 1/4 of the price. Flintshire has won his two Group races very easily and is open to plenty of improvement. On a the line through Ocovango he would have won the Niel on good ground.
Granted that bit of good fortune I think he will win if it dries up but I appreciate that is quite a big if.
I had no interest in Flintshire at 5/1 but 14/1 was tempting. He’s been tickled back into 12/1 now but obviously if it is soft his chance is greatly compromised. Treve has looked very good indeed but I am not sure a defeat of Wild Coco is really top drawer form and she’s very short now. At just a half point less Orfevre looks a much more solid option in my mind. I toyed with backing him when he was 8/1 but missed the boat and it’s too late to catch another one. My old pal Al Kazeem hasn’t got much chance now in my opinion. I expected a prep run on more suitable ground but they went to the well again on the fast surface and he now looks very vulnerable and his best days may be gone.
I am not convinced this is as good a renewal as some are saying. Following on from Al Kazeem’s downturn in fortune, Flintshire has more than doubled in price after his own defeat, Intello is not a certain runner by any means, Treve may not be quite as hot as she has looked and Novellist’s win looks less exciting now that Cirrus des Aigles has shown himself way short of the "Best horse in the World" tag that he carried at the time of the King George. Kizuna and Ruler of the World had little between them last time but I don’t fancy either of them when thinking about this year’s Derby form.
If I had to pick one it would be Orfevre and I’m pretty confident he’ll do the business.
Great to see you back Stevie Boy!!!! Hope you well mate!
I really liked the filly. They have always rated Wild Coco at Warren Place especially on soft ground and I thought TQ had surely pinched it at the top of the straight. The way Treve picked her up was super impressive and there were big gaps back to the rest. She might need luck in running but and I’d like to wait til the draw but she’ll surely go close.
That’s interesting Joni – were Team Cecil surprised she got beat? Until Zarkava fillies a poor record recently, but that trend has well and truly been smashed with Zarkava, Danedream and last years winner.
I’m still in the (quite lazy?) routine of putting a line through F&M’s in the Arc, perhaps I should move with the times.
They always had her down as a Group 1 mare PC – given the right conditions. She must have cut. She HAD cut, she pinched an 8 length lead, she wasn’t stopping, she was mown down. After the race connections were delighted – just philosophical that they had come up against an exceptional filly.
It is a really good Arc this year but I think Treve could be exceptional.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
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