- This topic has 158 replies, 34 voices, and was last updated 12 years, 6 months ago by
.
- Posts
Brilliant review Bos, could not disagree with any of it.
…And you know I like to find something to disagree with.
Many thanks for the compliment, Ginge.
I like to disagree with you too
but you always back up your opinion with reason and it’s great to look at things from a different perspective.Always a pleasure, Ginge
Bosranic – do you think ROTW gave his true running today? It looked a strange run to me.
Travelling nicely in a perfect position, to going backwards faster than the Italian Army, to staying on to a respectable 6th, a in the space of about 3-4f.
I don’t think that was his his true running (as per Epsom), although he certainly wouldn’t be the first horse who never produced the same again.
Time has told us that Ruler Of The World beat an average field at Epsom, with those in proximity proving themselves one-paced at Doncaster over one mile-six in the St Leger.
Kizuna beat him more emphatically today than he did in the Prix Niel, but the Arc is always a different proposition and it’s perhaps folly to compare them. I thought Kizuna would improve more than ROTW, but the result doesn’t mean that I was justified in my assertion so I guess a lot depends on your initial opinion of the colt.
He will always be vulnerable on fast ground against top quality opposition, but granted soft ground and / or a fast pace (always difficult to get both in the same race at the highest level) he could be dangerous.
He wasn’t helped by Al Kazeem two furlongs out and had to switch around him, but it was his lack of acceleration that presented problems.
He will certainly stay further and, should he stay in training, maybe a return to Chester for the Ormonde Stakes would be a good starting point en-route to a tilt at the Coronation (a la St Nicholas Abbey in 2011).
He has plenty to prove, but has time to prove himself.
Fair response. I would be suprised if he stayed in training at 4yo, only based on what must have been an expensive decision with fellow Derby winner Camelot.
GT just being nosey, but you were clearly hugely impressed with Treve today (who wasn’t) to the extent you have raised a thread suggesting it MAY be the best fillies performance of al time.
You are basing some of this angle on the beating given to Orfevre, whom you seemingly rate highly. But he wasn’t one of the three you backed in the race. Was this purely because you felt his price too short?
Exactly PC,
Orfevre was far too short a price, bad enough on the day, but especially earlier in the week.This is what I said on my thread about Orfevre/price:
Tue Oct 01, 2013 6:05 pm
"
Orfevre
has cracking form and unlucky when my money was on last year. On the face of it an impressive easy 3 length winner in Prix Foy. Flattering (in a way) with second and third favs running poorly in last and second last and Camelot a non-runner. Getting the run of the race and having very little to beat. I wouldn’t judge him too much on that easy victory. Able to race up the rail; something that may be important to his chance this term. In 2012 had a poor stall position, raced wide around the turn and wandered badly once in front, giving the race away. Despite an exceptional strike rate Orfevre has a bit of temperament. Good draw would help his cause enormously on Sunday. Obviously has a leading chance on last year’s race, but punters are always susceptible to a hard luck story and looks poor value at current prices. Deserves to win but debatable if he should be favourite, let alone 5/2 favourite."
That "5/2" was before Novellist came out PC, once the German horse’s price was moulded in to the market Orfevre shortened still further.
Once the field and draw were known…
5 Oct 2013, 19:08
"My 100% Book for soft ground:
Orfevre 3/1Treve 7/2
Ruler Of The World 7/1
Al Kazeem 9/1Kizuna 10/1
Intello 18/1
Leading Light 18/1
Flintshire 20/1Ocovango 40/1
Penglai Pavillion 66/1Pirika 132/1
Meandre 250/1
Very Nice Name 400/1
Haya Landa 500/1
Joshua Tree 500/1
Going Somewhere 500/1
Sahawar 1000/1Treve is currently available @ 9/2
Ruler Of The World @ 10/1
Al Kazeem @ 16/1
If I had not already backed Novellist – Treve would also be a "main bet" instead of a saver.
Ocovango and Penglai Pavillion are slightly better than my price on exchanges, but not at the moment enough for a margin for error".
Had Novellist run I would not have made Orfevre favourite.
Even when Novellist came out, had it not been for the ground (officially) being so soft and/or the draw – I would have made Treve favourite.Value is everything PC.
Value Is EverythingIntello, beaten under two lengths by Moonlight Cloud in the Jacques Le Marois over eight furlongs, dismissed any questions regarding his stamina by keeping on for third.
Leading Light has already won at group level over ten, fourteen and sixteen furlongs in a seven race career. He endured an awful passage from start to finish and is certainly better than the bare form. He is an obvious candidate for the top staying events next year from one mile-six upwards, but he should be given another chance to contest a quality race over twelve furlongs. He is a very likeable character.
Surely it only proved Intello got the trip in a slowly run race?
The more interesting question is why Leading Light had an ‘awful passage’? I am sure given his draw everyone who backed him expected him to either lead or sit in the first three with a view to leading into the straight. The fact that he didn’t was that down to the horse or an inept ride from Mosse? The Racing Post analysis suggests the horse ‘raced awkwardly’ but they never blame jockeys for anything. If they are correct ‘awkward’ and ‘likeable’ don’t sit easily together.
Guyon again got Flintshire in a nice position to mount a strike but not surprisingly couldn’t pick up. If Treve stays in training I hope to see a rematch on good ground. Clearly the filly would be long odds on but if they can somehow engineer a fast pace to suit the colt it is definitely worth a shot. I don’t buy the idea that Treve will be any better given a faster pace, she appeared to relish being sent forward yesterday as opposed to Dettori attempting to strangle her in the Vermeille and a slow pace will always lend itself ideally to her change of pace.
Great write up by bosranic.
Treve – Superstar ! That was incredible.
Standing yesterday at the Longchamp-parade-ring some 5 meters above the ground I thought to myself: “
What is this – who is this magnificent looking horse No. 18? Oh, it is Treve. And where is ROTW? Oh, sorry, it’s this rather common looking horse.
”
Well, we have seen a great horse Treve in a great race which reproduced the splendid form of the top 4 placed horses. There is no fluke-appeal as it is in preceding year’s edition of this race.
Well, where would have been Novellist? Excuse my simple and a bit chauvinistic view. Novellist showed a solid form this year, is there a reason but bad luck not reproducing his form and class yesterday what at least the first 4 at the post did? Well, unlikely that he would have beaten Treve in yesterday’s race. But those 5 to 7 lengths behind that filly? Yes, he should have ranked there behind 1st and in front of the 4th.
Altano gave trainer Wöhler and jockey Pedroza a little compensation in the Cadran that afternoon. But is this a consolation?
A sound Novellist is due to run in the Japan Cup in this moment. Most likely his last race, if it hasn’t already been at Baden-Baden.
So the historic trend is continuing: German and Japanese horses might be good enough for this race, but are not lucky and happy in this very race.
Walk on, walk on, though your dreams be tossed and blown.
Walk on, walk on, and with hope in your heart …I think unless Novellist put the pace into the race himself he would have struggled to have beaten the first four. If yesterday’s race was run over a mile and a quarter you almost certainly would have gone with the first four. It was a race that definitely played to the strengths of the speed horses. Not inconceivable that the best trip for all of the front four home is a mile and a quarter.
You might be right, but here is Novellist coming from behind in a race where he was found infected and not as his best at the day afterwards. Well, Pastorius – a 10 f horse – beated him in the end, but what does it matter under these circumstances:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxUAPIhL … 576B2DA10F
It took Novellist only a couple of strides and a slight turn of foot to win at Baden-Baden 5 weeks ago.
Surely it only proved Intello got the trip in a slowly run race?
The more interesting question is why Leading Light had an ‘awful passage’? I am sure given his draw everyone who backed him expected him to either lead or sit in the first three with a view to leading into the straight. The fact that he didn’t was that down to the horse or an inept ride from Mosse? The Racing Post analysis suggests the horse ‘raced awkwardly’ but they never blame jockeys for anything. If they are correct ‘awkward’ and ‘likeable’ don’t sit easily together.
Guyon again got Flintshire in a nice position to mount a strike but not surprisingly couldn’t pick up. If Treve stays in training I hope to see a rematch on good ground. Clearly the filly would be long odds on but if they can somehow engineer a fast pace to suit the colt it is definitely worth a shot. I don’t buy the idea that Treve will be any better given a faster pace, she appeared to relish being sent forward yesterday as opposed to Dettori attempting to strangle her in the Vermeille and a slow pace will always lend itself ideally to her change of pace.
I have always gone against the commonly held belief that a slowly run race will give a horse with stamina issues a better chance of staying.
A horse will expend the same energy as long as they move at the optimal speed for each gait ie walk, trot, canter etc. In a stronger run race Intello would travel just as well, expending less energy than most because he would be travelling at a speed he is comfortable with compared to those who do not possess the same level of tactical speed.
If a horse stays, it will stay regardless of pace. Ground is the primary factor if a horse has stamina issues, and Intello stayed better than most of the field on soft ground, didn’t he?
Treve would travel so well – and settle better – off a fast pace. She boasts an amazing cruising speed and stays well, and this is complimented by a tremendous combination of stride length and frequency. That electric turn of foot would be just as / even more dangerous off a fast pace and we will see that should she compete over a shorter trip at the highest level.
Leading Light’s race was over as soon as the race started. He broke slowly and Gerald Mosse was niggling at him throughout, arguably trying to reach a more prominent position. When it appeared Mosse was content on the colt he had nowhere to go – Meandre looked unhappy and on his inside was in danger of running into the back of Very Nice Name, while Flintshire and Ruler Of The World kept him in a typical ‘Longchamp Pocket’ when the pace isn’t strong. That was precisely why I was happy for Treve to be drawn in stall fifteen rather than five, as I stated in my preview.
Those drawn low were rated at huge odds (rightly so) and, with her high cruising speed, a low draw would have been catastrophic. It was her first time against the colts and she could so easily have been intimidated if surrounded in such a manner – you need only look at how she reacted to James Doyle’s cheeky little nudge aboard Al Kazeem (not accidental, I can assure you). Imagine if she had reacted in the way she did, only with a wall of raging colts in front of her!
Leading Light has endured some pretty tough battles, showing a ‘likeable’ attitude in the process. He is entitled to have had one bad race when things didn’t go right, particularly at the end of a season where he has grinded out a classic success and a gruelling two mile Royal Ascot contest.
Nobody was at fault and the RP comments were a little harsh. In my opinion, Leading Light only ‘appeared hard to steer’ on one turn and Mosse could arguably have been looking for daylight, only for Ryan Moore to close the door on him aboard Ruler Of The World.
Leading Light should be given another crack over twelve furlongs in decent company.
Surely it only proved Intello got the trip in a slowly run race?
The more interesting question is why Leading Light had an ‘awful passage’? I am sure given his draw everyone who backed him expected him to either lead or sit in the first three with a view to leading into the straight. The fact that he didn’t was that down to the horse or an inept ride from Mosse? The Racing Post analysis suggests the horse ‘raced awkwardly’ but they never blame jockeys for anything. If they are correct ‘awkward’ and ‘likeable’ don’t sit easily together.
Guyon again got Flintshire in a nice position to mount a strike but not surprisingly couldn’t pick up. If Treve stays in training I hope to see a rematch on good ground. Clearly the filly would be long odds on but if they can somehow engineer a fast pace to suit the colt it is definitely worth a shot. I don’t buy the idea that Treve will be any better given a faster pace, she appeared to relish being sent forward yesterday as opposed to Dettori attempting to strangle her in the Vermeille and a slow pace will always lend itself ideally to her change of pace.
I have always gone against the commonly held belief that a slowly run race will give a horse with stamina issues a better chance of staying.
A horse will expend the same energy as long as they move at the optimal speed for each gait ie walk, trot, canter etc. In a stronger run race Intello would travel just as well, expending less energy than most because he would be travelling at a speed he is comfortable with compared to those who do not possess the same level of tactical speed.
If a horse stays, it will stay regardless of pace. Ground is the primary factor if a horse has stamina issues, and Intello stayed better than most of the field on soft ground, didn’t he?
Treve would travel so well – and settle better – off a fast pace. She boasts an amazing cruising speed and stays well, and this is complimented by a tremendous combination of stride length and frequency. That electric turn of foot would be just as / even more dangerous off a fast pace and we will see that should she compete over a shorter trip at the highest level.
I would argue that Intello just quickened up better than the others in a slowly run race that suited him perfectly. In a fast run mile and half I suspect he would have struggled to get home or at least been less effective whatever the ground but we will agree to differ.
I already stated on another thread (prior to the race) that Treve would have started favourite to beat Sky Lantern over a mile so I have no problem with a speed horse dropping back in trip. My point is would she improve over a mile and half in a race run at a fast pace. I have my doubts.
Is the fillies weight in the Arc a fair weight? Surely at the end of the season there should be no allowance for sex? I believe that fillies improve more than colts with time(provided they train on).
I have always gone against the commonly held belief that a slowly run race will give a horse with stamina issues a better chance of staying.
A horse will expend the same energy as long as they move at the optimal speed for each gait ie walk, trot, canter etc. In a stronger run race Intello would travel just as well, expending less energy than most because he would be travelling at a speed he is comfortable with compared to those who do not possess the same level of tactical speed.
If a horse stays, it will stay regardless of pace. Ground is the primary factor if a horse has stamina issues, and Intello stayed better than most of the field on soft ground, didn’t he?
Treve would travel so well – and settle better – off a fast pace. She boasts an amazing cruising speed and stays well, and this is complimented by a tremendous combination of stride length and frequency. That electric turn of foot would be just as / even more dangerous off a fast pace and we will see that should she compete over a shorter trip at the highest level.
At last Bos, something I can disagree with you about.
"A slowly run race" is (imo)
bound to
"give a horse with stamina issues a better chance of staying" (now the important bit) as long as the horse
settles
well enough. If taking it to an extreme: It won’t happen in an actual race but… In a 12f "race", if all horses walk for the first 10f and sprint for 2f – then even Legal Force would "stay 12f". So it stands to reason the slower they go the more chance a "doubtful stayer" has of "staying". Horses do not expend the same energy going 20mph as they do 25mph or 30mph. The fact how fast horses go over the early to mid fractions directly relates to how fast they are able to go in the final quarter – proves it. Therefore, horses can "stay" the trip in a slowly-run – and not "stay" in a truly/strongly run race. But the "as long as the horse settles" is a vital proviso…
Strangely enough, Dawn Approach would’ve stood a much better chance of staying the Derby distance had there been a good pace. Being rank through the early and mid stages expended far too much energy, more energy than had they gone a good pace and settled. ie Relaxing is (I believe) usually more important than pace when it comes to a horses staying the trip. Ground is also obviously important.
So I can understand Stilvi’s question about whether Intello would’ve stayed 12f in a strongly run race. The way he battled with Orfevre in the last furlong of a less than truly run race – suggests to me he Intello would have been effective in a strongly run mile and a half. Although we will never know for sure, having been retired.
Treve’s turn of foot would not be as effective in a strongly run race. Though I agree Bos, it does suggest she’d be fully effective at much shorter.
The term "turn of foot" is often misrepresented in the racing press. Some hold up horses (like Treve) do have one, but others don’t. Some hold up horses need a truly/strongly run race to show their best. Because although they’ve come from the back and won going away by say 3 lengths, what’s often happening is… It expends less energy by going optimum (more equal) fractions than prominently ridden rivals. In the final 50 yards is not quickening, merely slowing down at at a lesser rate.
In my opinion, in a strongly run race Treve would probably win by the same distance. Winning more by raw ability/staying on than her "turn of foot". She might even win by further, as you say Bos the pace might help her to relax more. But there is at this point in time a possibility conditions yesterday were Treve’s optimum.
"tremendous combination of stride length and frequency". It was that frequency that I found so different Bos, amazing.
Value Is EverythingIs the fillies weight in the Arc a fair weight? Surely at the end of the season there should be no allowance for sex? I believe that fillies improve more than colts with time(provided they train on).
Fillies have won the last three Andyod, but it was a long time back to another, 17 years if I remember reading somewhere.
There’s more a question about 3 year olds age allowance is a little too big.
Value Is EverythingIs the fillies weight in the Arc a fair weight? Surely at the end of the season there should be no allowance for sex? I believe that fillies improve more than colts with time(provided they train on).
Fillies have won the last three Andyod, but it was a long time back to another, 17 years if I remember reading somewhere.
There’s more a question about 3 year olds age allowance is a little too big.
You are forgetting Zarkava GT.
No PC, not forgetting Zarkava, daft I know, forgot about Solemia and I was thinking Zarkava was after Workforce.
Doh!
OK. Fillies have won 3 of the last 4.
Value Is EverythingWhy was it a "slowly run" Arc?
The going was on the soft side and all races that day were "slowly run" therefore – far away from their record-times.
At last Bos, something I can disagree with you about.
"A slowly run race" is (imo)
bound to
"give a horse with stamina issues a better chance of staying" (now the important bit) as long as the horse
settles
well enough. If taking it to an extreme: It won’t happen in an actual race but… In a 12f "race", if all horses walk for the first 10f and sprint for 2f – then even Legal Force would "stay 12f". So it stands to reason the slower they go the more chance a "doubtful stayer" has of "staying". Horses do not expend the same energy going 20mph as they do 25mph or 30mph. The fact how fast horses go over the early to mid fractions directly relates to how fast they are able to go in the final quarter – proves it. Therefore, horses can "stay" the trip in a slowly-run – and not "stay" in a truly/strongly run race. But the "as long as the horse settles" is a vital proviso…
Strangely enough, Dawn Approach would’ve stood a much better chance of staying the Derby distance had there been a good pace. Being rank through the early and mid stages expended far too much energy, more energy than had they gone a good pace and settled. ie Relaxing is (I believe) usually more important than pace when it comes to a horses staying the trip. Ground is also obviously important.
So I can understand Stilvi’s question about whether Intello would’ve stayed 12f in a strongly run race. The way he battled with Orfevre in the last furlong of a less than truly run race – suggests to me he Intello would have been effective in a strongly run mile and a half. Although we will never know for sure, having been retired.
Treve’s turn of foot would not be as effective in a strongly run race. Though I agree Bos, it does suggest she’d be fully effective at much shorter.
The term "turn of foot" is often misrepresented in the racing press. Some hold up horses (like Treve) do have one, but others don’t. Some hold up horses need a truly/strongly run race to show their best. Because although they’ve come from the back and won going away by say 3 lengths, what’s often happening is… It expends less energy by going optimum (more equal) fractions than prominently ridden rivals. In the final 50 yards is not quickening, merely slowing down at at a lesser rate.
In my opinion, in a strongly run race Treve would probably win by the same distance. Winning more by raw ability/staying on than her "turn of foot". She might even win by further, as you say Bos the pace might help her to relax more. But there is at this point in time a possibility conditions yesterday were Treve’s optimum.
"tremendous combination of stride length and frequency". It was that frequency that I found so different Bos, amazing.
A study of energy consumption in horses travelling at various gaits found a striking pattern. At each gait, there was one narrow range of speed where energy consumption was lowest. These optimum speeds were almost precisely the same as the speed the horse would naturally choose at each gait.
When they were asked to move at unusually slow pace, the energy they spent to move a given distance shot up.
It was also discovered that the total energy expended in travelling a kilometer at a walk, trot, or canter was exactly the same, so long as the horses were allowed to move at the optimal speed for each gait.
Basically, a medium trot is more energy efficient than a fast walk, and a medium canter is more energy efficient than a fast trot.
~ The Nature Of Horses
If a horse is stepping up two furlongs in trip – even if travelling at a slightly slower speed within the same gait (as you would expect) than previously experienced – it will still consume the same amount of energy over a given distance.
Therefore, speed may vary, but one thing you can not change is a horses genetics. Lethal Force (OR 121) could gallop at any speed over twelve furlongs, but if he is asked to compete against Greatwood (OR 104) over that particular distance then he would be emphatically beaten.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.