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In the Niel Ruler of The World looked more than a touch unlucky to me to say the least, yet still all but dead heated with Kizuna.
I can’t understand why he is a longer price, at Stan James longer by a full 6.5 points.
Off topic – when are Ladbrokes and Oddschecker going to sort their s**t out whatever it is? Its really annoying.
Below is the Japanese for Orfevre will win the arc easily and gingertipster smells……
この賭け馬の男は、円弧を簡単に勝つヘルプと gingertipster のにおいがします。
Did you try translating that back into English Nathan?
I did and it comes out as:-
"Man betting horses smell help arc win easily and gingertipster"
Sort of loses something in translation there and not a mention of Orfevre!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Anyone know what the position is with declarations and supplemented horses in France. I see that Treve is still down as "needs to be supplemented", and I had a little flutter last week at 9-2.
I would have thought that with less than a week to go, the connections would have decided if the horse was taking part or not. I think Criquette Head would be silly not to give the horse it’s chance, it will get the distance, has a blistering turn of foot and although running against older horses, particularly Offevre, the 11lbs she receives from him offset that I think (or hope).
Looks a very good Arc this year.
Anyone know what the position is with declarations and supplemented horses in France. I see that Treve is still down as "needs to be supplemented", and I had a little flutter last week at 9-2.
I would have thought that with less than a week to go, the connections would have decided if the horse was taking part or not. I think Criquette Head would be silly not to give the horse it’s chance, it will get the distance, has a blistering turn of foot and although running against older horses, particularly Offevre, the 11lbs she receives from him offset that I think (or hope).
Looks a very good Arc this year.
I think its five days in the UK for the likes of the Derby. Cant imagine its too different in France.
Im waiting on the weather over there. Hoping for lots of rain but not certain to get it. I wonder are there any forum people who live in Paris?
SHL
I like the look of Novellist If he runs to the same level as the King George I think he will take all the beating.
Does anyone know if Pastorius is a likely runner?
There are some god awful prices going about for the Arc at the moment, with Orfevre as low as 2/1 and Treve as low as 3/1.
As my old assistant used to say:-
"I’d rather stick my willy in a blender"
No wonder they are flocking round the FOBT’s
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Below is the Japanese for Orfevre will win the arc easily and gingertipster smells……
この賭け馬の男は、円弧を簡単に勝つヘルプと gingertipster のにおいがします。
Did you try translating that back into English Nathan?
I did and it comes out as:-
"Man betting horses smell help arc win easily and gingertipster"
Sort of loses something in translation there and not a mention of Orfevre!
Yeah sounds about right, I forgets how to spell Orfevre off the top of my head….
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Anyone know what the position is with declarations and supplemented horses in France. I see that Treve is still down as "needs to be supplemented", and I had a little flutter last week at 9-2.
I would have thought that with less than a week to go, the connections would have decided if the horse was taking part or not. I think Criquette Head would be silly not to give the horse it’s chance, it will get the distance, has a blistering turn of foot and although running against older horses, particularly Offevre, the 11lbs she receives from him offset that I think (or hope).
Looks a very good Arc this year.
I think its five days in the UK for the likes of the Derby. Cant imagine its too different in France.
Im waiting on the weather over there. Hoping for lots of rain but not certain to get it. I wonder are there any forum people who live in Paris?
Thanks Sir H
Maybe by tomorrow I’ll know if my ante post is sailing down the seine, but I’m optimistic Criquette Head will have her hand forced a bit by the new owner Sheikh Joann Al Thani, who I think bought the horse with the Arc in mind. Criquette Head had earlier said she had not entered Treve as her plan was to go for next years Arc. She actually said she wanted to save her as it was a tough race, she followed that by saying "people don’t think but it’s a killing race for horses". I wouldn’t maybe go that far, but sometimes it has resembled a punch and Judy show going round those big sweeping bends.
The draw is key, but if she gets drawn low and can get the cover she needs, without having to switch behind from a wide draw, which almost certainly means having to come from last to first, I think she has a terrific chance. I hope I’m not over hyping the horse, but I think she is the most impressive 3yr old I’ve seen this year. The term "wonder horse" gets thrown around too often, but I think she could be one. I’m really looking forward to this race.
I know what you mean; when we saw her last race on the telly I turned to the S.O. and said ‘look at that acceleration, and I thought of past Arc winners sweeping up the outside of the field to win
. I have, without realising it at the time, arranged to be somewhere away from a telly on Sunday and I’m kicking myself for it.
Leading Light will be supplemented for the race but surely he won’t have the pace to be involved here. I think the move says more about the strength of O’Brien’s other entrants, than the chances of the horse himself. Ruler of The World is surely the only other realistic candidate, with flop Camelot unlikely to run unless the ground is good and it beggars belief that they are even considering Kingsbarns after his abortive seasonal reappearance. Stats men can no doubt tell us how many Queens Vase winners have won the Arc the same year but I think Leading Light is a shockingly bad price at 12/1 with Ladbrokes.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I know what you mean; when we saw her last race on the telly I turned to the S.O. and said ‘look at that acceleration, and I thought of past Arc winners sweeping up the outside of the field to win
. I have, without realising it at the time, arranged to be somewhere away from a telly on Sunday and I’m kicking myself for it.
It’s a pity you will miss the race Moehat, I think it will be a cracker. I couldn’t agree more with you, her acceleration was hugely impressive.
She doesn’t appear on the 21 declared runners that appear today, but from what I can gather she is expected to be supplemented on Thursday…..fingers crossed.If only the race could have been run last weekend but if reports are to be believed the ground is now unlikely to be better than Good to Soft and could obviously be even worse.
So in an attempt to salvage something (given that anything soft will rule out Flintshire and hinder Treve) have gone with Novellist who would also have preferred the rain to have stayed away but should handle conditions, and Leading Light. The idea of Queens Vase, St Leger and Arc may seem an unlikely combination but he has shown ability over shorter trips and on the front end he might prove more difficult to pass than some imagine. Fingers crossed for some favourable draws.
It is difficult to read the mind of a Montjeu horse.But a mile and 1/2 seems to be their best distance.
I really liked the filly. They have always rated Wild Coco at Warren Place especially on soft ground and I thought TQ had surely pinched it at the top of the straight. The way Treve picked her up was super impressive and there were big gaps back to the rest. She might need luck in running but and I’d like to wait til the draw but she’ll surely go close.
I notice that Wild Coco has been retired. A good horse when there was cut in the ground and over a decent trip but just a bit short of top class. Maybe Treve will pay her a compliment of sorts in the Arc but I feel there will be harder horses to pass come Sunday and at 3/1 I’ll readily avoid her.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It looks a good Arc this year. I haven’t seen anything as impressive as
Novellist
‘s 5 length beating of Irish Derby winner and subsequent International runner up Trading Leather. Bolger horse’s firm surface form is under-estimated. Only beaten 1 1/4 lengths by Declaration Of War on the same surface at York. Novellist wasn’t as good in Grosser Prix Von Baden on Sept 1st. But had different tactics employed there, front running and possibly not 100% fit. Ascot a bit of a stand-out performance to date, on his only run a firm surface. Going concerns expressed beforehand (imo) suggest Novellist is probably equally effective on a soft surface. Looks a value bet at 5/1 or bigger.
Treve
is a strange name for a filly. Impressed me in her trial, got shuffled back and came from a poor position in a less than truly run race. imo Better than distances suggest. However, will need to be, because a 1 3/4 length beating of Wild Coco is not good enough form in my opinion. That said, is progressing all the time with only 4 runs to her name. Whether that inexperience will tell against her is questionable, in the hurly burly of an Arc.
Orfevre
has cracking form and unlucky when my money was on last year. But possibly flattered (in a way) in Arc Trial. Second and third favs running poorly, having nothing to beat and getting the run of the race up the inner. Draw may be important to his chance this term. In 2012 had a poor stall, raced wide around the turn and wandered badly once in front. Gave it away. They will want the rail on Sunday. This year’s Arc looks a better quality race than last. Punters are always suseptable to an unlucky story and although has a good chance, looks overbet at this stage.
Fellow Japanese contender
Kizuna
won the Niel last time out, though now looks plenty short enough. Relative test of speed probably helping the Japanese Derby winner more than the English one. Can’t see why Kizuna is any shorter than Niel second
Ruler Of The World
. Latter doing well considering he’s more a stayer, finishing well. Soft surface will suit the Irish horse and may get involved once final decs are known.
Niel third
Ocovango
seems exposed as just below top class. Fourth, stable companion
Flintshire
is better than that run, his first effort on a soft surface. Undeniably impressive earlier in Grand Prix De Paris and a prospect for top races next year. Connections now believe him better on a sound surface and seems unlikely to take part (drifting in the market.
Another Fabre horse,
Intello
is supposedly his best chance of an 8th win. But although by Galileo is out of a 7f/miler who was in turn both by and out of 7f/milers. Intello himself being effective at a mile and stays 10f. There’s got to be a doubt whether 12f will suit, particularly with (probably) the added stamina needed on a soft surface.
I did not think
Leading Light
would be fast enough for the St Leger let alone the Arc, but I was wrong. In hindsight being pushed along in the 2m Queens Vase probably more to do with lazy tendencies rather than lack of speed (at least at 1m6f). Did win in lesser company at 10f. I don’t want to write him off for the weekend, but unless it’s very testing, again can’t see Leading Light being fast enough in this grade.
Al Kazeem
was ante-post favourite earlier in the year, on the back of three Group 1 10f wins; Tattersalls Gold Cup, Prince Of Wales and Eclipse. Since then beaten in International and Irish Champion. In my opinion a load of rubbish has been talked about Al Kazeem not acting on the firm ground at York, though probably not at full abiity there for whatever reason. Do not under-estimate Irish Champion winner
The Fugue
, if going for this race I’d be backing her. Needs a sound surface and times at Leopardstown illustrated it was no worse than a true Good. Like Flintshire, unlikely starter. Al Kazeem’s 2nd last time turned the tables on Trading Leather and running well. However, I can’t get out of my head an impressive win in the Jockey Club Stakes, over 12 furlongs on soft ground last season (only 4yo start). Although by Dubawi, Al Kazeem is out of Kazeem, who promised at two, but only one run at three. Kazeem is by stamina influence Darshaan and out of Kanz, 2nd in Yorkshire Oaks. Considering the way Al Kazeem runs and dams side of pedigree – it wouldn’t be at all a surprise if he’s better at 12f than 10f. If that is the case around 16/1 could prove value.
Value Is Everything
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