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Al Kazeem
was ante-post favourite earlier in the year, on the back of three Group 1 10f wins; Tattersalls Gold Cup, Prince Of Wales and Eclipse. Since then beaten in International and Irish Champion. In my opinion a load of rubbish has been talked about Al Kazeem not acting on the firm ground at York, though probably not at full abiity there for whatever reason. Do not under-estimate Irish Champion winner
The Fugue
, if going for this race I’d be backing her. Needs a sound surface and times at Leopardstown illustrated it was no worse than a true Good. Like Flintshire, unlikely starter. Al Kazeem’s 2nd last time turned the tables on Trading Leather and running well. However, I can’t get out of my head an impressive win in the Jockey Club Stakes, over 12 furlongs on soft ground last season (only 4yo start). Although by Dubawi, Al Kazeem is out of Kazeem, who promised at two, but only one run at three. Kazeem is by stamina influence Darshaan and out of Kanz, 2nd in Yorkshire Oaks. Considering the way Al Kazeem runs and dams side of pedigree – it wouldn’t be at all a surprise if he’s better at 12f than 10f. If that is the case around 16/1 could prove value.
Couldn’t agree more Ginge, I picked him out a while ago. For me, without even looking at pedigree he looks like he wants 12 furlongs anyway. The step up and softer surface look right up his street and he’s definitely the forgotten horse.
Anyone know of anyone besides 888 or Racebets that go 16s on
AK
? I can’t seem to get on each way with 888 and the market’s suspended with Racebets
Anyone know of anyone besides 888 or Racebets that go 16s on
AK
? I can’t seem to get on each way with 888 and the market’s suspended with Racebets
If you can not find any bookmakers Boz, you could try backing him on betfair @ around 16/1 for the win and around 3.4/1 for the place.
Value Is EverythingAnyone know of anyone besides 888 or Racebets that go 16s on
AK
? I can’t seem to get on each way with 888 and the market’s suspended with Racebets
If you can not find any bookmakers Boz, you could try backing him on betfair @ around 16/1 for the win and around 3.4/1 for the place.
Aye fair point Mark, by my reckoning he’ll be going at single figures on the day anyway.
he’ll be going at single figures on the day anyway.
Al Kazeem’s time is over for this season, he’s a lay.
I love this race. For me, the greatest flat race in the world – bar none !
Treve – she’ll do for me. She ticks all the boxes.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
he’ll be going at single figures on the day anyway.
Al Kazeem’s time is over for this season, he’s a lay.
Even if he were going there fresh I wouldn’t fancy him as I believe this theory that he will improve for a step up in trip and softer ground will end up being shot to pieces. His only race over the trip was a very slowly run affair that would have suited him down to the ground. You have to think if connections really considered the longer trip to be his optimum we might have seen him running over it at least once this season.
My opinion….for what its worth (not a lot I assure you)
Novellist. Stand out form in the King George but perhaps that race was run to suit as Trading leather never really was able to settle. I thought the horses last run was actually ok. Overall, I think the bookies have it right with 5/1 and I wouldnt have a bet at those odds. A relatively safe option though.
Treve. Looks like she could be outstanding but needs another step up from her last effort and with the prospect of her having to be held up behind some good horses, I wouldnt be piling in at odds of 9/2
Orfevre. Looks like a superstar to me at times. Has all the ability. Not sure whether he just went for his run too soon on heavy ground last year or whether he needs a horse shrink. He will be very hard to beat in my opinion and ground doesnt present a problem. However, he didnt win it last year and this is a much better race so that might play in the mind.
Kizuna. His trainer said that he wasnt ready for his prep race and that if he finished within 5 lenghts of the winner, they would have been happy. Surely being facetious????
Looked a good winner of the Japanese Derby and is a dark horse. 15/2 wouldn’t represent outstanding value though.Intello.
Will he stay? After the French Derby, I would have said no but having looked at him in his prep race on stickier ground, I would have more hope. Overall there is just so much speed and very little stamina coming from the dam side that I couldn’t bet on him. However it will be interesting to watch the "in-play" market a furlong from home if this fellow is creeping closer.Flintshire
Needs good ground …but how good? Was very tenderly handled in Prix Niel on soft ground so good soft might be perfectly acceptable for him.
So if the rain stays away, I think this horse has a big chance and that 14/1 might be worth taking.Al Kazeem,
I think this whole thing of him not going on firm is a ball of nonsense. That said, every reason to think he can be very effective with cut and would prefer the extra 2 furlongs. A horse for the placings but should find others with more x-factor too god.The Fugue. Classy but again, probably very ground dependent.
Thats it. Penglai Pavillion or Manndawi might run well at big odds but look well held on form. The bookies have this properly priced up some i may just have a few bob on an outsider.
SHL
If only the race could have been run last weekend but if reports are to be believed the ground is now unlikely to be better than Good to Soft and could obviously be even worse.
So in an attempt to salvage something (given that anything soft will rule out Flintshire and hinder Treve) have gone with Novellist who would also have preferred the rain to have stayed away but should handle conditions, and Leading Light. The idea of Queens Vase, St Leger and Arc may seem an unlikely combination but he has shown ability over shorter trips and on the front end he might prove more difficult to pass than some imagine. Fingers crossed for some favourable draws.
Hi Stilvi, I agree that Novellist has a serious chance. As you know, I am very keen on Treve, I just wondered why you think that soft ground would hinder Treve. Her last run at Longchamp was on soft ground and she looked like she could have won it pulling a cart, the race comments were "stayed on under hands and heels and led inside final furlong, pushed clear, very readily". She won her first run on good to soft and her other two on good, so I doubt the ground will be much of an inconvenience to her no matter how it comes up.
I agree with you on the importance of the draw, something between 2 and 9 would be ideal for sitting in behind, which Treve will no doubt do. If she gets drawn out near to 20, it’s going to take a deal of luck and a master ride by Detori.
I might have a standby bet after the draw if it all goes wrong.
If only the race could have been run last weekend but if reports are to be believed the ground is now unlikely to be better than Good to Soft and could obviously be even worse.
So in an attempt to salvage something (given that anything soft will rule out Flintshire and hinder Treve) have gone with Novellist who would also have preferred the rain to have stayed away but should handle conditions, and Leading Light. The idea of Queens Vase, St Leger and Arc may seem an unlikely combination but he has shown ability over shorter trips and on the front end he might prove more difficult to pass than some imagine. Fingers crossed for some favourable draws.
Hi Stilvi, I agree that Novellist has a serious chance. As you know, I am very keen on Treve, I just wondered why you think that soft ground would hinder Treve. Her last run at Longchamp was on soft ground and she looked like she could have won it pulling a cart, the race comments were "stayed on under hands and heels and led inside final furlong, pushed clear, very readily". She won her first run on good to soft and her other two on good, so I doubt the ground will be much of an inconvenience to her no matter how it comes up.
I agree with you on the importance of the draw, something between 2 and 9 would be ideal for sitting in behind, which Treve will no doubt do. If she gets drawn out near to 20, it’s going to take a deal of luck and a master ride by Detori.
I might have a standby bet after the draw if it all goes wrong.
Treve’s major asset is obviously her change of pace and I have a feeling that would be more telling on quicker ground. She can race freely as well and I still have a nagging doubt that a fast run mile and a quarter might be her ideal. She will probably cope with the soft but with any horse stepping up you want (if possible) everything in your favour.
If only the race could have been run last weekend but if reports are to be believed the ground is now unlikely to be better than Good to Soft and could obviously be even worse.
So in an attempt to salvage something (given that anything soft will rule out Flintshire and hinder Treve) have gone with Novellist who would also have preferred the rain to have stayed away but should handle conditions, and Leading Light. The idea of Queens Vase, St Leger and Arc may seem an unlikely combination but he has shown ability over shorter trips and on the front end he might prove more difficult to pass than some imagine. Fingers crossed for some favourable draws.
Hi Stilvi, I agree that Novellist has a serious chance. As you know, I am very keen on Treve, I just wondered why you think that soft ground would hinder Treve. Her last run at Longchamp was on soft ground and she looked like she could have won it pulling a cart, the race comments were "stayed on under hands and heels and led inside final furlong, pushed clear, very readily". She won her first run on good to soft and her other two on good, so I doubt the ground will be much of an inconvenience to her no matter how it comes up.
I agree with you on the importance of the draw, something between 2 and 9 would be ideal for sitting in behind, which Treve will no doubt do. If she gets drawn out near to 20, it’s going to take a deal of luck and a master ride by Detori.
I might have a standby bet after the draw if it all goes wrong.
Treve’s major asset is obviously her change of pace and I have a feeling that would be more telling on quicker ground. She can race freely as well and I still have a nagging doubt that a fast run mile and a quarter might be her ideal. She will probably cope with the soft but with any horse stepping up you want (if possible) everything in your favour.
I take your point Stilvi, she has the kind of speed you might normally associate with a miler or a mile and a quarter horse. I wondered how she would fare in the Prix Vermeille last time out over 12f, but she traveled really well and pressed the button with about a furlong to go and just took off.
It is unusual for a horse to get 12f so well, particularly with the going being soft, and still to have explosive acceleration at the finish. I was very impressed with her prior to the Prix Vermeille, but it was after watching the race that I thought she really was a special horse, the rare type that sees 12f out well and also has the speed to run away from the field.
As I said before, I hope I’m not over hyping the horse, but I really think she is special and given the luck in running which she will obviously need, I think she will win.
Very surprised Coolmore have gone with Mosse rather than O’Brien for Leading Light. I think the ‘partnership’ was worth 3lbs but obviously connections didn’t. Mosse hardly brimming with confidence judged on his last couple of forays over here.
No real problem, possibly even a positive that Jarnet has ‘regained’ the ride on Treve.
Very surprised Coolmore have gone with Mosse rather than O’Brien for Leading Light.
I suspect Ruler Of The World is very much their "leading light" rather than Leading Light. No St Leger winner has ever won the Arc in the same year. With this year’s Arc being touted as one of the best for some time, it leaves Leading Light with a mountain to climb to defy the stats. I think most seasons a Jockey would rather be on a Derby winner, than a St Leger winner in the Arc.
Orfevre is being dismissed as too skinny at 5/2 but it’s worth looking back to last year’s Arc and seeing Camelot coming in as an afterthought following his St Leger flop, only to go off 2/1 favourite for the race. Compared to that effort Orfevre has been primed to the minute, winning a, albeit weak, Gp 2 almost on the bit. In terms of value comparison with Camelot last year 5/2 is like finding money down the back of the couch on a Saturday evening with happy hour just starting down the local!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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