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(Edit: Beat me to it Andyod).
On form (including who’s more suited to an Arc) I’d say Ruler Of The World has a far better chance than Leading Light. Who knows, it may well be that LL is showing up better than ROTW at home. But if given Evens in a match bet, I’d rather go with the Derby winner.
Is Joseph going to take any ride in the Arc?
Racing Post says his minimum weight over the last year has been 8-13. Ballydoyle’s representitives are due to carry 8-11.Hope Moore gets the nod.
Value Is EverythingVery surprised Coolmore have gone with Mosse rather than O’Brien for Leading Light.
I suspect Ruler Of The World is very much their "leading light" rather than Leading Light. No St Leger winner has ever won the Arc in the same year. With this year’s Arc being touted as one of the best for some time, it leaves Leading Light with a mountain to climb to defy the stats. I think most seasons a Jockey would rather be on a Derby winner, than a St Leger winner in the Arc.
Irrespective of which Coolmore think is their best (personally I think Ruler Of The World will be lost in traffic) I was expecting Moore to maintain the partnership with Ruler Of The World and Joseph his with Leading Light. Presumably, Joseph will not be riding.
Not sure how many St Leger winnners have attempted to win having been successful over much shorter trips earlier in the season and been given that mid-season break so favoured by many of the French runners. While on the subject of statistics it might be worth considering how many 5yo’s have won and how many have returned to win having been beaten in a weaker renewal the previous year. How many of those have had an interrupted campaign due to breaking a blood vessel and leaving punters guessing as to what might happen when they are put under severe pressure?
(Edit: Beat me to it Andyod).
On form (including who’s more suited to an Arc) I’d say Ruler Of The World has a far better chance than Leading Light. Who knows, it may well be that LL is showing up better than ROTW at home. But if given Evens in a match bet, I’d rather go with the Derby winner.
Is Joseph going to take any ride in the Arc?
Racing Post says his minimum weight over the last year has been 8-13. Ballydoyle’s representitives are due to carry 8-11.Hope Moore gets the nod.
Ryan Moore is said to be riding Ruler Of The World. I think Silvi was meaning that having Joseph on board was worth the 3lb extra Leading Light would have to carry.
I was assuming Ryan Moore had the choice but it may be that they want him on Ruler Of The World because he knows the horse better. I reckon Joseph would have picked Ruler over Leading Light if he had had the choice.
I was critical of Joseph on another thread for putting up 2lbs over on a horse set to carry 9st, and got pelters from some quarters, with the arguement that the extra weight meant little. I think it is a bit poor when your stable jockey can’t ride in the best flat race of the season because he cannot do the correct weight. No, I’m not paying the wages, but I know half-assed when I see it.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
If it is in a small race then connections might think it is worth the risk leaving a jockey 2 lbs overweight Steve. But in the biggest race of the year, am sure Joseph would feel terrible if beaten a head. So would not want to ride.
That said, if it wasn’t for family connections – doubt whether he’d keep the job at Coolmore being unable to ride in the biggest race.
In my opinion Ryan is likely to be riding full time for Coolmore some time within the next couple of years. Joseph surely can not starve himself for much longer. Suspect he will take an assistant trainer role. Sir Michael Stoute has not had enough top class horses over the last few years and now even some he’s likely to have will be ridden by Doyle. Ryan will be looking elsewhere and Coolmore won’t want to lose him.
Value Is Everything[
Irrespective of which Coolmore think is their best (personally I think Ruler Of The World will be lost in traffic) I was expecting Moore to maintain the partnership with Ruler Of The World and Joseph his with Leading Light. Presumably, Joseph will not be riding.Not sure how many St Leger winnners have attempted to win having been successful over much shorter trips earlier in the season and been given that mid-season break so favoured by many of the French runners. While on the subject of statistics it might be worth considering how many 5yo’s have won and how many have returned to win having been beaten in a weaker renewal the previous year. How many of those have had an interrupted campaign due to breaking a blood vessel and leaving punters guessing as to what might happen when they are put under severe pressure?
I don’t fancy Ruler Of The World either but surely he’s a bit faster than Leading Light. You are probably correct in musing that not many Leger winners have actually tried to win the Arc in the same season but the reason why that is is most probably a concern regarding having the pace to be competitive over shorter.
Several factors worry me regarding Leading Light’s chances.
1. Of the four O’Brien trained entrants, two were 50/1 shots who have now been withdrawn, which would suggest a serious lack of depth to their challenge this year.
2. He’s a Queen’s Vase winner and I’m struggling to evisage that being a good indicator for the Arc.
3. He’s favourite for the 2014 Ascot Gold Cup and it would seem impossible for him to go and win the Arc and then step up an extra mile next year.
The best of luck to the horse and his backers, but at 10/1 with Ladbrokes, in the same hot company you say Orfevre is facing, I think he’s laughably short.
I would say this year’s race is only potentially as hot as some are saying. Flintshire, Intello and The Fugue won’t like the going, over this trip at least. Treve will be facing pacier horses than Wild Coco this time. Novellist’s blistering run in The King George was on very different going and it is worth considering the poor form of the hotpot Cirrus Des Aigles subsequently.
I take your point regarding Orfevre and blood vessel problems but he strolled home last time out and his effort in last year’s race is hard to forget. In these days of whisking colts off to stud I have to volley the ball back over the net and ask how many really good 5yo’s have tried to win the Arc?
We’ll all know more tomorrow after the draw, there will be further shrivelling of the odds no doubt if the fancied ones land a plum berth.
Lydia Hislop is heavily into Al Kazeem for Sunday, opining that he is ridiculously overpriced. I backed him ages ago at 10/1 and am surprised he is actually running. I admire his consistency but agree with your point about why he hasn’t tackled this trip more often. It seems strange to keep trying at shorter if this trip is bound to wring improvement. More to the point I have a belief he’s had a busy enough season and a couple of tough fights on the way, therefore:-
"Duffman has a bad feeling about this!"
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
There seems to be an idea that Joseph could do 9stone.He cannot without sacrificing strength,his normal riding weight is 9-3. However Leading Light is carrying 8 -10 I believe.So Joseph would be carrying at least 6lbs overweight if engaged to ride Leading Light.Shamus Heffernan can do 8-10 so why not engage him to ride ? He is a better jockey than Joseph in my opinion.
I think if you were so disposed you could find chinks in all of the runners.
Leading Light was an afterthought for me (even as seems very likely he doesn’t get a chance to show it on Sunday I would still be pretty hopeful that Flintshire will prove the best of this bunch next year) and he probably was for the Coolmore camp as well. Perhaps his rate of progression has surprised them but I don’t think that in itself is a reason to discount him. The two big pluses for me are the possibility that he could still be improving, and his running style. On a line through Libertarian and Galileo Rock there isn’t a great deal between him and Ruler Of The World. With the best horse blunted back in fourth I don’t think that the Prix Niel form is that special – Kizuna looked to come there tanking but eventually fell over the line. A line through Ocovango would suggest that Ruler Of The World pretty much ran his Derby form again. People are asking the question about Treve being able to get a run through traffic but for me there is a much bigger doubt whether the Derby winner has the change of pace to get out of trouble.
I wouldn’t be overly concerned that O’Brien is fielding 14/1-16/1 shots. Fabre is also seemingly going in with a 12/1-14/1 shot despite mopping up 3yo condition races virtually all season. I think the prices are reflective of a general idea that the relatively exposed 3yo’s have something to find. That could well prove correct but other than the King George which was run on very quick ground there isn’t that much evidence to substantiate the view.
Ardross was a stayer with the class to place in an Arc and prior to that run he was quite possibly ante-post favourite for the following year’s Gold Cup. Clearly Leading Light isn’t yet in the same class but he has achieved a good deal more at the relative stages of their careers.
Ardross was a stayer with the class to place in an Arc and prior to that run he was quite possibly ante-post favourite for the following year’s Gold Cup. Clearly Leading Light isn’t yet in the same class but he has achieved a good deal more at the relative stages of their careers.
Some good points there stilvi and it seems to me that many have got Leading Light totally wrong because he has run over 2 miles. The Queens Vase is in my view an outlier in his form and the distance seriously disadvantaged the horse. Of the first 8 home at Ascot, 7 were held up and only LL chased a strong pace. He did well to win at the Royal meeting.
You need to view Leading Light as a top classic 3yo who has yet to run over 12f…an almost unheard of circumstance at this stage of the season.He should, of course, have run in the King Edward at Ascot but Ballydoyle were still trying to make a stallion of Battle Of Marengo and he got that gig as they probably thought they could win both races.
In my view Leading Light has always been (and always been thought of) as the best 3yo at Ballydoyle this year but was slow to come to hand and then had a small mishap in July. He is a 12f horse who has yet to run at 12f and is arguably bred to be a 10-12f type as his dam won the Hilary Needler, Queen Mary and the Fred Darling before running down the field in Sleeptime’s Guineas.He won the Gallinule over 10f in May and through that race his career links in interestingly to two other stoutly bred Gallinule victors…Ardross and Alleged. Both of whom ran very well (brilliantly in the case of Alleged) in Arcs. Alleged also took in the St Leger before dropping back.
Incidentally a couple of journalists reported that Derek Smith indicated Aidan was pushing for an Arc supplementary entry for Leading Light on the flight over to Doncaster and before the Leger was run. Which if true puts a slightly different light on things.
Looking at the field for Sunday I am not sure how strong the pace will be and Leading Light may be able to get the lead or prominent even from a high draw. This is not a plodding two miler, he has shown plenty of zip at 10f and the pace was slow in the Leger and he sprinted up the straight having been given a perfect ride.
The only issue I have with him as a horse is that he has been slow from the gate in 2 of his 6 starts including last time out. He wouldn’t want to be doing that on Sunday. Mosse is sensible booking as Joseph cant do the weight and Ryan is familiar with ROTW.Also this is a horse with a massive will to win and that will be a huge plus if he can get to the front around the point of the false straight on Sunday. He is a warrior and will be very hard to pass. Of course, his overall form is below Orfevre and Novellist (amongst others) but he is an improving 3yo who, imho, has never yet had his ideal conditions (12f, good/good to soft ground).
Correct to say that not many Queens Vase runners win the Arc but O’Brien is the biggest statsbuster in European racing and he is a man to have on your side.
I am not as confident as I was at Donny obviously but I will be having a tasty each way bet…16/1 is still readily available and in my view that is just the wrong price, there is also a chance that LL and ROTW will be about that price coupled on the machine on the day, given the Japanese and French strength.
I will also be backing Novellist on the machine as he is an admirable creature and could be real value given the shape of the market.
Should be a great race.8mm of rain at Longchamp last night – going now officially soft according to International Racing Bureau.
Nasty Draw for both Treve and especially Al kazeem there. Novellist could have gotten better also.
I assume we are looking at soft ground now that the Fugue has been withdrawn but I suppose alot depends on the weather from here on in.A couple of showers and the status quote is maintained but a couple of days of decent weather and perhaps the ground could dry out appreciably?
SHL
Other than Leading Light can’t see that many wanting to go forward early so it might be possible to get a decent position from a wide draw. Having said that if they decide to drop Treve out she could end up having to pass the whole field.
As far as I am aware further rain is forecast before Sunday so it seems inevitable that soft will appear somewhere in the going description. If that is the case then what looks a handy draw for Flintshire will be of little consequence.
Bugger…just what I didn’t want, a wide draw for Treve
Like I said before the draw, if he is drawn high, he will have to settle behind and come from last to first. If he manages that he will have to be every bit as good as I think he is.It’s a bit of a shame Frankie won’t be riding, I know Thierry Jarnet knows the horse well having won 3 times on him, and on the plus side he has won the Arc twice. On the down side, that was 19 and 21 years ago, I hope he still has the bottle for a race like this at 46.
I know there is only 4 years between them, but I would have preferred Frankie trying to weave his way through. I’m not knocking Thierry, or having a ready made excuse, I know he is a good jockey so best of luck to him.If I was on Orfevre I would be feeling pretty happy now, but I have a vision of Treve taking off in the last 1/2 furlong and streaking past Orfevre, with Thierry waving his stick in the air at the line. I’ll be hearing voices next
With many of the favourite horses getting nasty draws it could easily end up being a ballydoyle battle up front with leading light setting sail for home early and ruler of the world behind him.The race looks set up for a so called outsider to win.Its not always the best horse who wins the arc so my two are leading light and ocavango. The soft going will find a lot out and coolmore know this hence the reason they are confident in being in the first five and getting their supplement fee back.
Well, at least I was right about The Fugue not running [think that’s about as good as it gets for me and this race]. Will have an ew on Penglai Pavilion cause he handles heavy ground and might stay on for a place, and Joshua Tree cause Ed Dunlop is so good at campaigning horses abroad [although I’d rather he was 100/1 not 50!].
BigG – ‘she’ my good man, ‘she’.
Oops……slip of the pen Peruvian my good friend. If you check my previous posts you will notice I refer to her as her. I was aware she was she, the best filly I’ve seen in a long time. It was just in my moment of gloom with the draw, I’ve ranted, thrown my toys out of the pram and reverted to type by labeling the nag as he, which I think most of the horses I’ve followed are. I hope that’s not an equine sexist remark
Just read a newspaper article about the race and realised that the Japanese horses are gransons of my beloved Sunday Silence, so I think I’ll be gunning for them now. Not that I’ll be watching it anyway. May attempt to change my plans for Sunday as am feeling sick at the thought of not seeing the race live.
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