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Novellist is out of the Arc. He has a temperature.
Full story at:
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/2/8957630/novellist-out-of-the-arc
Well that’s Flintshire’s scuppered by the ground, Treve’s chances lessened by the draw and now my most solid saver on the sidelines. Just waiting for something to happen to Leading Light.
Is anyone able to confirm from what date stakes will be lost on Novellist and the situation regarding Rule 4’s?
Why has Flintshire been scuppered by the ground ? I thought he ran a good prep race on soft ground last time. The mare liked soft, Dansili’s can handle soft.
At this morning’s prices i’m on ROTW and Flintshire.
I liked Intello in the spring but that’s also partly why i’ve gone off him – he’s been in training a long time this year, even if that race at Newmarket in April was a walkover.
Might have a dabble with some Orfevre forecasts tomorrow. Difficult to see it not placing.
Why has Flintshire been scuppered by the ground ? I thought he ran a good prep race on soft ground last time. The mare liked soft, Dansili’s can handle soft.
Some Dansili’s can, some can’t, unfortunately I think this horse is very definitely in the second category. I was surprised he got so close (albeit well beaten) in the Niel but I think that was more a case of the three in front not being that special. Had the jockey been more vigorous he wouldn’t have finished much closer, his speed was just blunted. On good ground I think he would have won very comfortably. Novellist not running is a big disappointment but this horse not being able to show his best is an even bigger one for me.
We don’t yet know how good Treve is. We do know that the form she’s already shown entitles her to go very close. She could be a stone better than she’s shown. A sensible choice at 4s, I think, and good luck to those on at much bigger prices.
I’ve settled on Ruler Of The World, the draw and Ryan Moore’s uncharacteristically upbeat interview have finalised my decision.
I will review the PMU a bit nearer the off and see if its worth nabbing a bit of Leading Light in to the bargain. It would need to be within a couple of points of the British Bookmakers prices, as I’m not particularly keen on the Ledger winner.
Its a real shame about Novellist, but still looks an above average renewal with only the German horse and The Fugue the horses you would ideally want in the field who are not.
Good luck ladies and gents.
Wouldn’t Leading Light be coupled on the PMU with Ruler Of The World?
Value Is EverythingWouldn’t Leading Light be coupled on the PMU with Ruler Of The World?
Yes thats my point GT, perhaps I have not explained properly.
I make Al Kazeem, Ruler Of The World and Treve value at current bookmaker prices.
Value Is EverythingWouldn’t Leading Light be coupled on the PMU with Ruler Of The World?
Yes thats my point GT, perhaps I have not explained properly.
Ah, I see what you mean PC, you’re thinking of going in again for Ruler Of The World on PMU. Taking a little bit of Leading Light along the way. Thumbs up.
Value Is EverythingYep GT. To clarify – if I can get ‘Coolmore’ coupled within 2 pts of ROTW’s UK price, I will back PMU. If not, ROTW UK price only.
I can’t remember the last time I looked forward to a race as much as this.
The prestigious events collected by this field have been well documented, but it’s the top quality competition on such a broad international scale that has got me excited.
I backed Treve at 8/1 prior to the Vermeille (also 6/4 for that particular contest the night before). Logic told me that if I fancied the filly to such an extent for that race then it would be wise to back her for the Arc, too. Hopefully, I have enough credibility on this forum for you all to accept this as gospel!!
A lot has been made about her ‘poor’ draw. It could have been kinder, but I would much rather her be drawn fifteen than five due to her running style in-relation to the respective candidates drawn low.
Those drawn in the first four stalls are rated 66/1, 50/1, 40/1 and 125/1. Treve has a scintillating turn of foot and it would not be ideal for her to be potentially surrounded by horses that are in no way insulted by the market. It can also be intimidating for such a filly tackling the colts for the first time.
She will have plenty of space and Thierry Jarnet has plenty of time to hold her up off the fence and out of trouble, thus enjoying a clear passage with tactical options. It is not a bad draw for her given the cicumstances but, conversely, Al Kazeem can be quite keen and likes to be handy – stall eighteen is a serious threat to any chance he stood.
I also take note of any horse that judges have been quick to dismiss on the back of a poor Arc ‘trial’ when valid excuses can be made. If the ground dried up I would have been all over Flintshire. A beautiful, smooth as silk stride with immense acceleration, and it’s no surprise that his two defeats have come with ‘soft’ in the going description. The ground has put a further dent in his chances and there can be no reason as to why he can reverse Prix Niel form with Kizuna, Ruler Of The World and Ocovango – the latter will be further inconvenienced by the draw in-relation to his preferred running style.
Ruler Of The World is very interesting. He is well drawn, enjoys soft ground, a Derby winner who comes here on the back of a solid run and has the assistance of a jockey who has been there and done it. The expected fierce pace will bring about further improvement, but I still find it hard to imagine him reversing form with the Japenese Derby hero.
If there was one colt – pre ‘trials’ day – who you just knew would come on for the run without even seeing him in the paddock beforehand, it was Kizuna. An inexperienced colt returning after a fair absence, he travelled and quickened like the best horse in the field. Assertions that he would need the run were evident towards the finish when he was unable to really stamp his authority on the race and that is where the improvement will come and he is a legitimate threat.
Orfevre is the one they all have to beat. Supremely talented and perfectly drawn, he looks to go one better than he did last year, and arguably needs to improve on it to be successful.
This race is stronger than last years renewal and one can argue that the only way he can win is by doing so on the bridle – can he really do so in a race this strong? On close inspection, he cocked his jaw when challenged and passed by Solemia last year (much like he did at Hanshin) and my worry is that if the likes of Treve and Kizuna charge late he will throw in the towel once more.
For all that he is the best horse in the race and a deserved favourite, he is far from unbeatable and is worth taking on.
Of the others, Leading Light might just lack the tactical speed, while Intello – a real spanner in the works here – will perhaps find the combination of the ground and trip beyond him. Certainly, he is walking a tight-rope in the stamina department already on the evidence of what we have seen on the racecourse and examination of his pedigree. The ground may have just gone against him.
The rest, although solid and admirable, are seemingly up against it.
Treve has solid form, a progressive profile, high cruising speed and the ability to quicken in an instant. She quickened twice to win the Vermeille when held up off a slow pace, and you should never underestimate how difficult it is to comprehensively defeat a group-class rival of any measure who has been given too much rope – Treve did just that.
Zarkava, Danedream (who lead home a 1-2-3 for the girls in 2011) and Solemia have all proven there is no such thing as a weaker sex in this race recently, but Treve will still enjoy the concessions all the same!!
Kizuna looks like a monster physically and can only improve on what we have seen thus far. He travelled like the best colt at Longchamp three weeks ago and quickened impressively, while Orfevre’s impressive record tells us that he will bee hard to keep out of the frame:
1 Treve
2 Kizuna
3 OrfevreInteresting interview with Head-Maarek stating that if the decision was hers Treve would not even be running today!
Having had to have a rethink as Novellist is a non runner I have narrowed it down to 4 horses and think the winner will come from one of the below:-
Intello (GER) 21-Sep-13 66.41 160.30 109
11-Aug-13 68.57 169.07 143
07-Jul-13 68.09 171.30 138
02-Jun-13 68.37 164.43 141
12-May-13 67.90 169.65 135
17-Apr-13 66.97 166.91 124Leading Light (IRE) 14-Sep-13 67.64 154.21 128
21-Jun-13 67.19 152.84 124
26-May-13 66.50 159.43 117
07-May-13 68.53 160.37 127Orfevre (JPN) 15-Sep-13 64.52 153.42 91
07-Oct-12 69.34 160.45 153
16-Sep-12 65.70 155.10 107Treve (FR) 15-Sep-13 66.85 156.27 122
16-Jun-13 68.59 164.64 144
15-May-13 44.48 131.05 83If Orfevre runs up to last years arc I think he will win but at the likely odds prepared to take him on and looking at the way Intello ran in the french derby he wasn’t stopping at the end so my money is on him at a best price 11’1
Treve could be interesting but has to overcome a bad drawHow many times has a horse that’s supplemented won this race? It’s bothering me, as well; I hope it doesn’t scar her mentally if it’s a rough race [mind you, all the French races aren’t a stroll in the park and she’s coped thus far I guess].
Great write up by bosranic. I’m stick with the Japanese horse which I cant spell off the top of my head, you know the one beginning with O. I can see the points about him jibbing it but with a held up, better timed run they wont get the chance to put in a challenge.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
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