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I can’t see Treve getting in the frame. I think the nature and distance of the race might prove her undoing.
Al Kazeem could surprise and run a big race since the going and distance will suit him despite the bad draw and Ruler Of The World looks to have an even better chance.
Orfevre is the one who I think will win though. He doesn’t seem such an awkward ride compared to what he was last year. Definitely has the class and speed to go one better.
1st Orfevre
2nd Ruler Of The World
3rd Al KazeemI can’t see Treve getting in the frame. I think the nature and distance of the race might prove her undoing.
Al Kazeem could surprise and run a big race since the going and distance will suit him despite the bad draw and Ruler Of The World looks to have an even better chance.
Orfevre is the one who I think will win though. He doesn’t seem such an awkward ride compared to what he was last year. Definitely has the class and speed to go one better.
1st Orfevre
2nd Ruler Of The World
3rd Al KazeemI’m thinking along similar lines to you although I’m uncommitted on the third.
I have backed Ruler Of The World because I thought 12/1 was too big with cut in the ground and I think the race could be run to suit him and Ryan Moore could nick it if he gets the tactics and the fractions right. Leading Light and Ruler Of The World are drawn 5 and 6 and both will want a stamina test. I can see Leading Light making the running and Ruler Of The World getting a lead off him. Orfevre I expect will be held up (to an extent anyway) and The O’Brien pair could get first run on him.
Orfevre is the one I do expect to win though if he’s at the top of his game he’ll be hard to beat.
I don’t fancy Treve I think there are some very smart colts in this years race and she will have to be an exceptionally good filly to win this especially on soft ground.
Interesting interview with Head-Maarek stating that if the decision was hers Treve would not even be running today!
HI Peruvian, she has always held the view that Treve should be aimed at the race in 2014. She feels it is a tough race, she described it as a "killing race for horses", but her hand was forced by the new owner, Sheikh Joann Al Thani, who bought the horse with the intention of aiming her at the Arc.
I think he is right and she (Criquette Head)is wrong. The weight advantage three year olds get I think is key, you only have to look at the last ten runnings of the race, eight winners were three years old.
I think Treve would win this if all things were equal, and I still think she will, I just hope the draw doesn’t scupper her chances, only one winner in the last eleven years was drawn higher than nine.My bet has been down for some time, but the 5-1 on offer today, I still think is decent value so I’ve had another dip in.
I also think it’s likely that one of the big priced unfancied horses will get into the frame, and you could do worse than Very Nice Name. It is rightly a 50 or 60-1 shot, but it has some decent form in Qatar, and more importantly got to within three lengths of Orfevre last month. Betvictor have decided to go 150-1 the horse, which is too big for me not to have a small wager.
I love this race.
I think the reason why Al Kazeem appeals to me is because of the manner of his victory in the Prince Of Wales. He committed early in the straight to pursue and wear down Mukhadram under a determined challenge. The 2nd horse in that race clearly wasn’t stopping due to the distance between him and The Fugue.
Now with the softer ground in his favour and provided he shows the same tenacity in today’s race, there’s a fair chance that Al Kazeem could grind out a fine result.
I’ve got a fiver on him anyway.
The two wins from horses drawn in the widest third this century were both with ground on the soft side. Dalakhani and Sakhee.
Value Is EverythingTreve – Superstar ! That was incredible.
Ah, the real tipsters come to the fore on the big day.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Well done to those who retained the faith a bit better than I did. I was even more worried when I saw how much she was sweating. Congratulations to Jarnet who had the confidence to commit so early. Don’t feel too sorry for Dettori as there is no guarantee he would have won and Jarnet lost the ride having done nothing wrong in the first place.
None of the others were in the same league as the filly but it would have been difficult for Joseph to have ridden Leading Light as ineptly as Mosse even putting up 10lbs overweight.
Awful result – Intello ruined my CTC!!
She was ridden just how I imagined. High cruising speed, electric turn of foot – what a filly.
The key moment of the race was when Thierry Jarnet moved up alongside Orfevre and held him in – beautiful jockeyship.
Well I got that wrong. Don’t understand the Ballydoyle tactics.
Best horse by a mile won, she is obviously an incredible filly, better I think than Zarkava was.
What is it with 3yo French Fillies? Zarkava, Goldikova, now Treve all ridiculously good.
I would agree with Ian, that was a stronger Arc than Zarkava’s and a more impressive performance. Head-Maarek must be the mother of all pessimists not wanting to run this filly.
ROTW ran a bizarre race. He looked to be completely fading entering the straight, I had to re-watch to make sure I wasn’t imagining things when I saw he had come 6th after looking like being tailed off at one point. Odd.
Tohat was f*****g amazing, I’m not blowing my own trumpet, many on here fancied her, I’m just glad she was as good as I had imagined…and then some.
This has turned into a good punting weekend for me, Heaven’s Guest at 16-1 yesterday and having gone back in today again for Treve when she was still 5-1. Makes up for a lot of weekends when I’m giving my "if only" or hard luck story.Only downside is that Mrs Big G, has already picked out her next outfit on the strength of it
Tohat was f*****g amazing, I’m not blowing my own trumpet, many on here fancied her, I’m just glad she was as good as I had imagined…and then some.
This has turned into a good punting weekend for me, Heaven’s Guest at 16-1 yesterday and having gone back in today again for Treve when she was still 5-1. Makes up for a lot of weekends when I’m giving my "if only" or hard luck story.Only downside is that Mrs Big G, has already picked out her next outfit on the strength of it
I would congratulate you BigG, but telling the Mrs is a rookie error and you deserve nothing but contempt.
What is it with 3yo French Fillies? Zarkava, Goldikova, now Treve all ridiculously good.
I would agree with Ian, that was a stronger Arc than Zarkava’s and a more impressive performance. Head-Maarek must be the mother of all pessimists not wanting to run this filly.
ROTW ran a bizarre race. He looked to be completely fading entering the straight, I had to re-watch to make sure I wasn’t imagining things when I saw he had come 6th after looking like being tailed off at one point. Odd.
Very impressive performance.
Strange race by both Ballydoyle horses. Leading Light was never going to win in a sprint, but despite missing the break still had a gap to go into at one point. Not sure why he didn’t take. ROTW, did he slip, bumped, hit a flat spot, or was Ryan Moore a bit asleep? Possibly lost a place in the prize money there.
Interesting quote from James Doyle, "rough race" but looked like he was partly responsible for it
What is it with 3yo French Fillies? Zarkava, Goldikova, now Treve all ridiculously good.
I would agree with Ian, that was a stronger Arc than Zarkava’s and a more impressive performance. Head-Maarek must be the mother of all pessimists not wanting to run this filly.
ROTW ran a bizarre race. He looked to be completely fading entering the straight, I had to re-watch to make sure I wasn’t imagining things when I saw he had come 6th after looking like being tailed off at one point. Odd.
Very impressive performance.
Strange race by both Ballydoyle horses. Leading Light was never going to win in a sprint, but despite missing the break still had a gap to go into at one point. Not sure why he didn’t take. ROTW, did he slip, bumped, hit a flat spot, or was Ryan Moore a bit asleep? Possibly lost a place in the prize money there.
Interesting quote from James Doyle, "rough race" but looked like he was partly responsible for it
Moore was pushing and shoving away to my eye and is probably as baffled as we are.
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