- This topic has 8 replies, 4 voices, and was last updated 2 weeks, 3 days ago by
.
- Posts
SCANDINAVIA 16/1 Unibet
Being talked about for the St leger and cup races next year after that romp today.
See Lambourn going 1m4 races next year even if it wins leger this year.
While this horse looks ideal cup horse for
AOB yardI hope he not get injured before this race yes getting the weight from favourite. But think will progress even more next year
Will need an impressive run by Scandinavia tonight to keep Rahiebb’s price down to 7-1 for this. He looked a proper beast today.
No guarantee either of them will stay the 2m4f trip but Scandi looks like one of those horses that only ever does enough regardless of the type of opposition he faces (last 4 wins by a combined winning distance of just under 3L).
Rahiebb reminds me a little bit of a horse Sir Henry trained in the equally as big Manifest, who (following a 2L 2nd to Harbinger who later that season went on to win that King George) won the Yorkshire Cup beating Ebor winner and Melbourne Cup runner up Purple Moon by 8L and looked like the next future staying star. He ran next in the Gold Cup and was 2nd favourite but quickly came off the bridle 4F out and was virtually pulled up (reportedley lost a shoe) in the straight some 72L behind the winner Rite of Passage, with the aforementioned Purple Moon 6L back in 3rd. Sadly Manifast never ran again.
Not saying the same will happen to Rahiebb but there is a massive difference between excelling at 1m6f or even 2m (as Scandi has) to being able to stay 2m4f at Ascot. Yes I know Aidan knows what it takes to be successful in the race (although I think both Yeats and Kyprios were freaks) but it also proved a step too far for Illinois last year who had a similar profile to Scandi.
Not a betting man but I think Trawlerman at 100/30 looks a great price and he has the form in the book, he stuffed Illinois last year and was the only one to push Kyprios the year before that and hopefully by the time Ascot comes around the yard will be in better form – assume he will reappear at Sandown in the Henry II like last season.
He is the yardstick that the other two (and anyone else) have to go and prove they can beat and they will have to properly outstay him to do that.
I absolutely accept that you can’t know any horse will stay 2½ miles until they prove it. Until Rahiebb shows he will I accept that Trawlerman is the likeliest winner again. But at the prices I’m still with my boy.
Oscar – I get what you are saying and personally I hope he wins as Trawlerman is very long in the tooth now (8yrs old and you have to go back to Yeats for the last 8 yr old to win it) and I would very much like to see someone other than Aidan or Gosden win the race – in the last 12 years only three times has the race gone to someone other than them two.
The news that Trawlerman might not make the race has caused Rahiebb’s price to contract but I’m not going in again. As stated, he still needs to prove he gets the 2½ miles… if he wins, I win, if he doesn’t then I’ve had some fun and I win again!
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.