Betbright Chase 2015

Known in various guises the last few years, but probably better known as The Racing Post Chase.

The Paul Nicholls trained <b>Easter Day</b>, the current favourite, looks to deserve the support, certainly based on his defeat last season of subsequent RSA Winner, O’Faolains Boy, and looked to be ready to mount a serious challenge when coming down at Cheltenham last time. I thought he was a wee bit unlucky there, and he may have been distracted with a horse jumping across him. I’d probably liked to have seen him win at Newbury in December, but he’s clearly got a fair bit of potential, and from a yard who make a habit of landing these big races, he’s difficult to rule out, though if I was betting him, I’d maybe gamble and wait till the day, with him as low as 5’s at the moment, and along with his stablemate, <b>Rocky Creek</b>, not a definite runner. Nicholls has stated only 1 of the 2 will run. Rocky Creek has a very poor show in The Hennessy to overcome, pulling up, and never really going a yard, though it <i>may</i> be possible to excuse him that though, having been asked to take on The Jnwine Chase at down Royal when apparently not fully fit. It’s 2 years since he last got his head in front, though he has been used sparingly in that time to be fair. It may just be the case that he’s had a few problems. Potentially a very good horse, but he’s got to start showing it soon, though he did run a blinder in The National, and on that run, the 20’s here looks massive. There’s just the worry for supporters that he’s not a definite runner, and maybe one to have a go at, after the finals decs. If I knew he was going, I’d be having a bit of that 20’s. Nicholls also has <b>Rolling Aces</b> entered, and he definitely goes. Second in this 2 years ago, but he’s only ran over 3 miles once since then, getting easily beaten by Vino Gregio at Sandown, who’s hardly franked that form since. A difficult horse to make a case for, and he doesn’t seem to have too many excuses for his last few defeats, but it’s his second to Boston Bob at Aintree in April, that’s difficult to forget. That run gives him a great chance, and you could argue he was running on very well last time over a shorter trip at Cheltenham, in the race won by Splash Of Ginge. I’d certainly give him a lot more respect over this kind of trip, and with him having shown a liking for this race before, and being a definite starter, then the 12’s looks fair. If kept up to this trip he’ll remain of some interest later in the season as well.

Also finishing off his race well in that Splash of Ginge race, and just behind Rolling Aces, was the Venetia Williams trained <b>Tenor Nivernais</b>. He’s a horse I really like, though I’ve not made my mind up what his best trip is. I kind of had The Byrne Group Plate in mind for him, but with him getting an entry here, and being introduced to the market for the 3 miler at Cheltenham, a race in which he unseated 2 years ago, then perhaps his future looks to be at 3 miles plus. He’s come down a few pounds since his last win, and although his last run, against what were hardly world beaters, was slightly disappointing, I’m never in a rush to write off the chances of a Venetia Williams horse in a big Saturday Handicap. Well, except for Niceonefrankie <!– s:mrgreen: –><!– s:mrgreen: –> I’ll take a risk with him though, and leave him for Cheltenham. He could easily pop up here, and has won at the track already this season, but an adequate run could have him come down a handy couple of pounds just in time for The Festival. His stablemate, <b>Renard</b>, did me proud last time in The Skybet Chase, finishing like a train to grab 4th, and each way money. That run didn’t scream winner of this though, and I’m hoping he saves his best for Aintree. Of the 2, I’d side with Tenor Nivernais.

Last years renewal, saw the relatively unconsidered <b>Bally Legend</b> win, as the outsider of the field at odds of 28-1. I was very lucky to have went with him, as in what looked a very weak race, he looked as good and likely as the rest of them. He certainly had an unusual build up, with a spin in a “Jumpers Bumper” at the same track on the all weather as his prep race, but it didn’t seem to do him too much harm. He comes here this year, off the back of a couple of spins over hurdles, and a few rounds over the larger obstacles at unsuitable trips. He’s not really done much in those races, but as a result he gets here only 2lbs higher than last year, and with his clear liking for the track, and the strong suspicion that a repeat win here, has been the long term plan, then I couldn’t leave the 20’s alone, and very hopeful of a back to back victory in the race.

Not too far behind him last year, in 5th, was <b>Ardkilly Witness</b>. I was happy enough to leave him alone then, but in the end he didn’t do too much wrong. He seems to like it round here, and though not the hottest race, there was plenty to like about the style of his win here in January, with him and the runner up going a mile clear. There’s just the worry though that his run next time will have left it’s mark. He was beaten when unseating at Sandown, on pretty testing going, and that, as well as a 7lb rise since that Kempton victory is enough to make me leave him alone. That Sandown race was won by <b>Le Reve</b>, and difficult not to be impressed with his style of victory. That win was off the back of a close third to The Young Master, and Houblon Des Obeaux at Ascot, and he’s shown me enough to forgive him his flop in The Hennesssy. Bar that “no show” at Newbury, he has, on the whole, been very consistent for the last year, and I’m not convinced the handicapper has got to the bottom of him. He looks a major player, and the 14’s with 32Red, and 888sport surely can’t last. In fact I’d very surprised if the 12’s, generally available on him just now, lasts much longer either. Big danger to all.

A horse I had high hopes for this season was <b>Chartreaux</b>, who won a very competitive handicap at The Punchestown Festival last year. I’d like to have seen more from him though on his seasonal debut here, in the race won by Ardkilly Witness, and I think he might just have a few question marks against him now. He was well beaten that day, and may be paying the price for that Punchestown victory. One thing in his favour though is that his trainer tends to target this race, and he knows what’s needed to land it. Would be no surprise if he left me with egg on my face, but I’ll leave him alone here (very reluctantly) and keep a close eye on him later in the season. The trainer also has <b>Ballinvarig</b> entered, but he might just be a shade high in the weights.

<b>Fox Appeal</b> is very well fancied, and finds himself not far off favouritism. Not difficult to see why, and he ran a great prep last time behind Rebel Rebellion, giving him over a stone. That horse is no mug, and I was really impressed. He does tend to keep the best of company usually, and though this stops him from getting any respite from the handicapper, he probably deserves his rating. He’s a sound enough horse, and will win a decent prize soon, but as I’ll be leaving him alone here, I hope his wait goes on just a little longer.

The top weight, <b>Rajdhani Express</b>, is a horse I love, and I’ve no doubt he’s got the ability to land this off top weight. He’s cost me a few quid over the last year or so with a few missed engagements, but it’s not too long ago he was repaying the faith at 33’s in The Ryanair when he was third. He was a strong fancy for me that day. He’s not been the same horse this year admittedly, but I’ve long wanted to see how he’d fare over this trip. He’s clearly got the odd temperament issue, and has also had a few setbacks, but he had an interrupted season last year, and that didn’t stop him running a blinder at Cheltenham. He’s the type of horse who has more detractors than supporters, but I’ve got him down as having a real chance here at 14’s.

Ireland could be represented by both <b>Dogora</b>, and Kim Muir winner, <b>Spring Heeled</b>. A fifth place behind Foxrock in The Leapordstown Chase was the best run from Dogora for some time, but even allowing for that, he’s just not done enough for me. I’ve been waiting to see Spring Heeled since his highly credible fourth behind Road to Riches, over an inadequate trip in The Galway Plate, and I’m just happy to see him getting an entry before, hopefully, a trip to The Gold Cup. I’ve (very) high hopes for this horse, and would expect a big run here, if not wanting for a little match fitness.

I’d be more than happy to forgive <b>Godsmejudge</b> his run in The Skybet, where he pulled up. He runs more good races than bad ones, and though his season will surely be geared round Aintree, he shouldn’t disgrace himself here. <b>Lost Legend</b> also took in that Skybet Chase, and though well beaten in 5th, he does boast a victory here this season, but I might just wait till he’s amongst “lesser” opposition. He’s a fairly consistent horse, but I just get the impression sometimes that he can’t quite step up to the plate, against the higher rated horses, certainly off his current mark. He did though, have a few decent horses behind him at Doncaster, but on balance, I’ll leave him alone here, and keep a close eye on him for targets later in the season, where he might be able to cut it more, when a few pounds lighter.

<b>Tap Night</b> got a lot of attention after his last run at Cheltenham, but he’s let me down too many times in the past, and he looks far too quirky for my liking. If he wins here, there’ll be a lot of talk about “plots”, but in the event of a victory, it’ll be more to do with him having slipped down the weights. He’s just doesn’t look half as good as he hinted he might be a couple of years ago. <b>Quincy Des Pictons</b> also ran in that Cheltenham race, but I’m happy to leave him alone on that evidence.

Although he’s another to probably have The Grand National as his main target, <b>The Rainbow Hunter</b> looks something of a dark horse here. He had no luck at all at Aintree last year, getting brought down for the second year in a row…….but his impressive win in last years Skybet seems quickly forgotten. I get the impression he’s been deliberately kept under wraps till the National weights come out, and feel he might have more to offer here off 144. 33’s to find out, and I reckon you’d get a run for you money at that price.

<b>What A Warrior</b>, was an eyecatching winner at Ascot earlier in the season, before being another who’s wheels fell off in The Hennessy. Although I’d maybe like to see him come down a couple of pounds now, I’m a big fan of the trainer, and another who’s runners I’m reluctant to write off in races like this.

<b>Triangular</b> looked to finally be getting his act together here last year, having been something of a disappointment beforehand. I remember quietly fancying him for this race last year, but he didn’t make it, and hasn’t been since that day at Kempton last February. He had Midnight Appeal behind him in second that day, and he went on to run a stormer in this, so there is, albeit a tenuous one, a hope that he could figure here. Trainer landed the race 2 years ago, and not totally out of it, but probably a big enough ask after a year off. Interestingly though, he’s only 16’s, I expected him to be higher.

Bally Legend for me then at 20’s. Of the rest, I’d probably stick with Rolling Aces or Rocky Creek, run permitting, and Le Reve, who look good value.

I’d love to see Rajdhani go well, and just hope beyond hope that if he does go here, then Spring Heeled books his ticket for Cheltenham, but of the rest, then The Rainbow Hunter might just be a sporting bet at 33’s.

GL