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As the race is creeping up, I thought I’d start a thread.
Toronado looks like to step up in trip against this season’s improved horse: Al Kazeem. Personally, I believe that Roger Charlton’s horse will be able to grind the finishing kick out of Toronado if given a good positive ride.
What do you think?
As the race is creeping up, I thought I’d start a thread.
Toronado looks like to step up in trip against this season’s improved horse: Al Kazeem. Personally, I believe that Roger Charlton’s horse will be able to grind the finishing kick out of Toronado if given a good positive ride.
What do you think?
I got 7/2 on my old pal Al Kazeem, taking the chance that as long as he ran he’d be shorter. Obviously I am concerned about the prospect of fast ground, as they have said he won’t run again under those conditions before the Arc. Toronado is the horse I fear most, as you have to respect his narrow defeat and latter victory when facing old sparring partner Dawn Approach. Al Kazeem has shown grit already and Toronado will need to be really good to come late and beat an older horse proven at the trip. Al Kazeem has hardened into 4/5 while Toronado has gone out to 11/4 over the past 24 hrs so perhaps there is still some doubt regarding the Hannon horse’s participation.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Interesting Steve. Perhaps that’s the reason Toronado is being kept in because of the possibility of fast ground and a chance Al Kazeem gets pulled, would give a great chance to double his tally of Group 1’s.
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Can’t really see al Kazeem not running… No matter what the ground.toronado is probably 50:50at best
SHL
Yeah, Charlton changes his mind or at least what he says a lot, I see his latest quote now is that Al Kazeem may not run in the Arc after previously saying all season that is his main target. #confused.com
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Yeah; sometimes they say so much they forget what they said.Racing plans are always fluid.
I agree Andyod but just find Charlton’s comments strange at times, apparently they have nothing to prove over 12f because they know he stays it anyway. Come again?
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Yeah and staying it in the group 2 jockey club against Quest for Peace isn’t quite the same as staying it in the Arc when looking at his CV.
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I see his latest quote now is that Al Kazeem may not run in the Arc
Nathan, If that happens I will probably wake up lying on the carpet with Vinnie Jones pumping my heart to the rhythm of Staying Alive!!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Al Kazeem
obviously has the best chance of winning. Might be a little bit better than the distances he’s beaten horses, always doing just enough. But however admirable the horse is, price seems very short on actual "form" shown.
Toronado
is in my opinion a better horse than Al Kazeem, but not at this trip. Has been free and needs to be anchored even at a strongly run mile. Will he settle in a slowly run 10 furlongs? Price is not good enough for me to take the chance.
Trading Leather
also pulled hard last time, but that was when taken on and over 12 furlongs, yet still managed 2nd in the King George. Rank outsider Rewarded is (from what I can see) the only other likely front runner. So it is possible the Bolger horse will get a soft lead. With no further rain around Trading Leather is likely to get the firm ground his action prefers. Needs to improve to beat the best here, but at around 15/2 looks worth taking a chance.
Hillstar
finished one place behind Trading Leather at Ascot, but 10f is unlikely to play to his strengths, particularly if it’s slowly run. Hold up horse, pulled hard at Newbury when ridden prominently, so looks a hostage to pace here.
Declaration Of War
is probably not up to this class, but he’s been pretty consistent and only needs to make up 2 lengths on the Charlton horse. Is 2 lengths enough to make one 5/4 and the other around 16/1? Winning distance may flatter Coolmore’s representitive, but even so price looks well worth taking. We also know he goes on most surfaces.
I’ve backed both Trading Leather @ 7.8/1 and Declaration Of War @ 16/1 as my value alternatives to the big two.
Value Is EverythingThere’s no chance Toronado not staying. Running at a mile was always a stepping stone to going up in trip and the only reason the horse didn’t step up earlier was firstly his sudden added pace and turn of foot which appeared overnight and secondly his setback in the Guineas, the Derby was still a possible before that point so the faster they go on Wednesday the better as this horse will travel for fun. The ground is perfect if you thought he finished his race in the Sussex well then wait to he hits the good to firm ground. A slow pace and Toronado not settling as Ginger points out is a possible but with every race he seems to be settling better and none of them will benefit from a slow pace anyway maybe DOW but if Tor does settle off a moderate pace then he’ll be best suited if it develops into a dash.
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I’ve backed both Trading Leather @ 7.8/1 and Declaration Of War @ 16/1 as my value alternatives to the big two.
Now taken some more 9/1 Trading Leather!
Value Is EverythingThere’s no chance Toronado not staying. Running at a mile was always a stepping stone to going up in trip and the only reason the horse didn’t step up earlier was firstly his sudden added pace and turn of foot which appeared overnight and secondly his setback in the Guineas, the Derby was still a possible before that point so the faster they go on Wednesday the better as this horse will travel for fun. The ground is perfect if you thought he finished his race in the Sussex well then wait to he hits the good to firm ground. A slow pace and Toronado not settling as Ginger points out is a possible but with every race he seems to be settling better and none of them will benefit from a slow pace anyway maybe DOW but if Tor does settle off a moderate pace then he’ll be best suited if it develops into a dash.
I don’t share your confidence on Toronado’s stamina Nathan. There is no doubt he has the turn of foot to win this but over the extra distance will it be as potent?
It is hard to imagine that Trading Leather will be hanging around now that he is dropped in trip. He could end up being the "hare" in this race that Mukhadram has been on two previous occasions for Al Kazeem and we know how that suited the current favourite in reeling him in late on, although this time Toronado could be there finishing better still if the tank is still slightly more than "Fumes" on the meter.
With Charlton reneging on his statement that Al Kazeem would not run again at the trip on fast ground, he has set the horse up for a fall and himself for a loss of credibility. It could be close in the betting between the first two in the market come flag fall and I feel both are best left alone at current odds. I am more hopeful than confident about my bet on Al Kazeem but he owes me nothing this year.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I don’t share your confidence on Toronado’s stamina Nathan. There is no doubt he has the turn of foot to win this but over the extra distance will it be as potent?
It is hard to imagine that Trading Leather will be hanging around now that he is dropped in trip. He could end up being the "hare" in this race that Mukhadram has been on two previous occasions for Al Kazeem and we know how that suited the current favourite in reeling him in late on, although this time Toronado could be there finishing better still if the tank is still slightly more than "Fumes" on the meter.
If the International is run at a goodish pace, with his breeding there is a fair chance of Toronado staying the trip. Toronado has settled reasonably well in his last two races, both strongly run mile contests. However, there is a big difference between settling well in a
strongly
run mile and settling in a
slowly
run 10f race. Dawn Approach settles better than Toronado at a mile and we saw what happened when he went from a strongly run mile to a slowly run 12f (around 14f pace at one stage). This isn’t 12f, but if I were Kevin Manning I’d get Trading Leather fast out of the gate, go as if to set a strong pace, get to the front and then after a few furlongs slam on the breaks. By this time Toronado will be going a good pace and won’t easily be able to slow. Once Toronado has had a couple of furlongs of this – Manning can then step on the accelerator again to (by the finish) make it a true test of stamina. Of course he has Al Kazeem to beat anyway.
Judged on how he himself over-raced in the King George it’s possible Trading Leather won’t let his jockey play around with the pace anyway, but hopefully will settle easier at 10f than 12f.
Might be a little strange to say, but sometimes a slow pace makes it more difficult for a horse to stay than a good one; when settling becomes the main problem. Who would’ve thought beforehand a slow pace in the Derby would be against Dawn Approach and for Ruler Of The World?
Value Is EverythingHe was in a battle at Royal Ascot and neither horses were stopping at the line, he showed plenty off the bridle. At Goodwood off a fast pace he had to go and win as the race was near finishing otherwise he could of travelled another couple of furlongs at the same pace. So if they go a fair clip I have no doubt he’ll stay whether or not he’ll stay better than Al Kazeem is a different story but if they go slow and he settles and travels he has the faster finish and will love the going.
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He was in a battle at Royal Ascot and neither horses were stopping at the line, he showed plenty off the bridle. At Goodwood off a fast pace he had to go and win as the race was near finishing otherwise he could of travelled another couple of furlongs at the same pace. So if they go a fair clip I have no doubt he’ll stay whether or not he’ll stay better than Al Kazeem is a different story but if they go slow and he settles and travels he has the faster finish and will love the going.
You could be right Nathan, if he can’t beat Al Kazeem on this ground he will probably never do it.
I received an email today offering me an "exclusive" price of 2/1 on Al Kazeem for tomorrow’s race, it was quoted as being supplied by Bet365 but when I checked it out their odds for him were 6/5
God knows what’s going on there, it has a whiff of fish about it somewhere. Best of luck if you’re on your old pal tomorrow.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I know Hughes was under a bit of pressure before the Sussex when Dettori got the job of riding all of the owners horses and that a quote from the owner or someone connected to owner was supposed to have said something along the lines of Hughes will keep the job as long as he doesn’t cock up on Toronado. I don’t know how much of that to believe but if it still applies then it must be a plus that Hughes was the one pushing for this race when the QE11 would of been an option over a trip race proven.
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