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Last year the Oaks was a strange race in that the 1st 3 never won a race as a 2yo.Though i think my 2 horses i like for the Oaks are
THE FUGUE 33/1
Won a Newmarket maiden showed a lot of speed to win over 7f that day wants this trip as well.And will be a big player for this
WAS 25/1
Won a nice maiden the 3rd horse was Coral Wave who has won a listed and Group 3 races so how good could WAS be.
Any thoughts from you guys.
This little project starts during the Festival as the entries are published on the Wednesday or Thursday of the Festival.
Zark When you look at the betting for it are there any horses that standout for you in the Oaks
Was taken by Twirl’s run at The Curragh Sunday and have backed her at 25/1 for this. Like the look of Wading, but a bit skinny at this moment.
Any further thoughts?
I like the look of Kissed for the Oaks,half sister to Pour Moi who won on her only start last year and worked well at the curragh last weekend.
I posted this at the end of March on the opening day of flat at The Curragh,
Was taken by Twirl’s run at The Curragh Sunday and have backed her at 25/1 for this. Like the look of Wading, but a bit skinny at this moment.
Like Darren I like
The Fugue
. She was very impressive on her debut
She looked really well balanced and was easy to pick out from a very early stage that day. She did run a but green from 2 furlong out but she was always going to win and the first miles in front of the rest
According to Terry Norman on TFR a few weeks back the John Gosdon filly has done really well over the winter.
I thought she Looked worth betting AP for the Oaks as she looks sure to pick up a prize or two along the way and if she does win a decent prize her price could fall through the floor considering who rains her.
Darren/HGM: You must both be very happy with that performance! Very calm ride from William Buick and the horse handled the ground and course nicely, full steam ahead and I am happy with my 20s EW so your 33s and 25s is looking very impressive indeed
Afternote: Now joint fav
I was very impressed by Vow.Murtagh was also impressed. She ran raw but full of running on the all weather.
Can not believe Vow is still 6/1
Backed her at 20s, then again at 8s, again at 6s. She is a place certainty in my opinion.
Will Epsom be watered? If heat wave continues Parish Hall must hve a good chance.Bolger has been waiting for this weather all year.
I was considering laying off my bets on The Fugue but when I look at the opposition I am happy enough to take my stake back and let the biggest majority ride.
I reckon Maybe is grossly under priced horse and wouldn’t back her at 3 times her current odds. She had 5 races as a 2 year old which is a lot for a horse you have Classics in mind for. There nust be the chance AOB had doubts about here training on and up to now I’d say that looks a distinct possibility. Her trainer looked shattered when she could only finish 3rd in the 1000 Guineas.
The Fugue looked a different kettle of fish after her Guineas run and I have sincere doubts Maybe can show anything like that amount of improvement. Make no mistake The Fugue wasn’t expected to win the Guineas Maybe was.
As far as Vow goes she is hard to access. The only reason William Haggas would send a horse he thought good enough to win the Oaks to scruffy old Lingfield is to see how she would handle the course. He couldn’t have been over the moon by any stretch of the imagination
While she won well showing a good turn of foot Jim Crowley gave the 2nd a very poor ride. Vow was up and gone before Crowley got the message and never really got on terms to put any sort of pressure on Vow.
There was a lot to like about the way Vow picked up again when she straightened out but for the above mentioned reason the actual form has to be questionable.
There is no doubting she has ability but the course has to be a huge worry. She was like teenage bronking buck in the straight at Lingfield and that was in a race where she had her own way. I reckon she’s still too green for the hustle and bustle of Epsom and couldn’t support her for that reason.
Others aren’t without a shout but I’ll stick with the Fugue…..mind you with what’s at stake I haven’t much choice
Maybe
‘s dam Sumora is a half sister to last year’s winner Dancing Rain who is by a son (Danehill Dancer) of Maybe’s sire Galileo. With Galileo more of an influence than his son, you’d think the favourite is sure to stay. But although not purely bred for speed, Sumora was a sprinter who’s paternal grandsire Indian Ridge is more of a speed influence. I believe Maybe only has a 50/50 chance of staying one and a half miles. The current 5/2 price seems more about her trainer’s record in the mile Classics than Maybe’s true chance. In my opinion both
The Fugue
and
Vow
have a better chance than Aidan’s first string. Stable companion
Kissed
and
Kailani
would also come close to being in front of her in my 100% book if there’s enough give in the ground.
Value Is EverythingMy choices for Fridays Oaks:
MAYBE … Forget her ‘bad’ run in the 1,000 Guineas, circumstances were against her with the fillies having to hang around for 30 minutes in the freezing cold and wind whilst tragic Gray Pearl was eased from her stall sadly to be put down later with spinal injuries.
Homecoming Queen virtually bolted from the stalls and took up such a commanding lead that it was not worth expending Maybe’s energies to finish a little closer, she was never going to catch the winner and anyway AOB won the race for the Magnier partnership and now Michael Tabor has a great chance to pick up the Oaks with Maybe on Friday.
Each way I am going out on a limb for NAYARRA, currently 50-1. Like Samitar who won the Irish 1,000 Guineas on Sunday Nayarra is a pocket rocket and loves a battle. She was with Maybe most of the way in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket and looks a good place prospect.
Best of the rest KAILANI, but fear she may be a little outclassed by these.Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
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