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Maybe
‘s dam Sumora is a half sister to last year’s winner Dancing Rain who is by a son (Danehill Dancer) of Maybe’s sire Galileo. With Galileo more of an influence than his son, you’d think the favourite is sure to stay. But although not purely bred for speed, Sumora was a sprinter who’s paternal grandsire Indian Ridge is more of a speed influence. I believe Maybe only has a 50/50 chance of staying one and a half miles. The current 5/2 price seems more about her trainer’s record in the mile Classics than Maybe’s true chance. In my opinion both
The Fugue
and
Vow
have a better chance than Aidan’s first string. Stable companion
Kissed
and
Kailani
would also come close to being in front of her in my 100% book if there’s enough give in the ground.
Sumora is by Danehill, Dancing Rain is by Danehill Dancer. Sumora is a three-parts sister to Dancing Rain. Galileo appears only in the top half of Maybe’s pedigree.
Why did I write Galileo?
Thinking one thing and writing another. Value Is Everythingthe fugue looks like a very good mile and half filly potentially and unlike some others in this she’ll love the ground.
she travelled extremely well at york and looks a real stayer. she’ll be hard to beat and will be my selection. in fact i’m so confident that i intend to have my biggest horse bet of the year on her
of course its a good race, you’ve got vow in there for example who’s looked visually impressive, but her form is not working out at all well,
and to be honest i’m slightly suspicous of the lingfield oaks trial now, why don’t they run it on turf anymore?maybe is a good filly but she showed so much speed as a two year old i’m rather sceptical of her proving effective over a mile and a half.
If Aidan believed he had an Oaks winner he would not have left so many in.Look at his responce to the Derby.Or the French one. He believes Joseph will win both Derbys but less likely to win the Oaks.
Vow won’t be far away. I was quite taken by her all weather win.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Over years of attending the Downs it has become apparent that some top class jockeys struggle here whilst others do very well.
Paul Hanagan and Frank tend to struggle whereas Johnny and KF do well and love the place.
Therefore the booking of Mr J Murtagh for
Had a little on Toptempo at 200/1. Wasn’t far behind Lyric of Light on her debut and wasn’t given the best of rides last time out. Got a feeling she could run into a place.
Out of the 6 ballydoyle runner’s 2 are related to derby winners 1 is related to a host of fillies placed in the oaks,1 is a half sister to an Irish guineas and 1 a champion 2yro All very well bred filles and none home bred so why not allow them to take there chance? John magnier was asked this yrs ago and has he said you owe it to the breeders to let these horses take there chance if there breed for that and 5 of them surly are.
Back on the day sheik mo had many runners in the field for the oaks the only difference is most of coolmores have the same trainer.i’ve backed the fugue but on reflection i’ve decided to back kissed as well, despite the concerns about the ground. If they think the ground isn’t ok for her i’ll just get my money back in any case. my main concern with the fugue is she’s drawn very low, traditionally in the epsom classics its better to have a middle to high draw.
kissed looks a more likely stayer than maybe. I don’t agree with the idea that because obrien has a lot of runners that means he doesn’t have an oaks winner. he has such strength in depth that you can’t be dismissive of his operation. he had a few runners in the irish 2000 and that didn’t stop him winning it. often his third and fourth runners are better than other trainers first string.
as for vow, she also has a low draw but she doesn’t travel as well as the fugue, and I can see her struggling with the cambers of epsom and struggling to get into it.
Nayarra e/w for me – got 100s this eve.
I was on Samitar at 25s on Sunday in the Irish 1000 – here’s hoping MC can pull off another great result.
Can’t see her winning but a place is up for grabs i reckon.Best of luck to all
Had a little on Toptempo at 200/1. Wasn’t far behind Lyric of Light on her debut and wasn’t given the best of rides last time out. Got a feeling she could run into a place.
you could well be right any of the outsiders could run into a place because most of the runners have listed form at best this race could throw up a shock result only two of runners i think have won at group level maybe and nayarra i really dont know what to make of this race imo a case can be made for every runner
Maybe and The Fugue have some doubt about their stamina although the former more so than the latter. Assuming that they both stay I would expect Maybe to confirm 1000 Guineas form. Many people were taken with Vow but I have serious doubts about her ability to avoid the car park. Given that Colima was making her seasonal debut and her jockey allowed Vow to get first run on her, she makes much more appeal at the best price of 23/1 on Betfair.
Being a confirmed admirer of Twirl on her 2yo efforts, I could not let her run wild so a small interest at 80 is necessary.Vow for me, Johnny Murtagh knows his way around the track, form seems to be working out well, one of Gosdens that finished well behind latest won well at Newcastle tonight.
I think the danger is Colima.
Good luck all!
Martin
That’s one helluva huge if
I’ve had a few sleepless nights lately wondering which horse is going to spoil the party and beat The Fugue and I keep coming back to Kailani.
I just wonder what price she would be if Frankie was on board and she’d won the Pretty Polly on fastish ground?
Frankie may well have had the choice in the Pretty Polly when he rode Lacilly and M Barzalona Kailani but obviously not today but that wouldn’t put me off at all as the young pretender is a very talented jockey.
As far as the ground goes there is absolutely nothing to say she won’t be as good or even better on a faster surface as she was at Newmarket on soft.
All things considered 10/1 looks massive to me and too much emphais is being put on Frankie isn’t riding and the assumption the ground won’t suit
This horse didn’t just win the Pretty Polly she absolutely destroyed them in Frankel like fashion beating Hazel Lavery by a very long looking 7 lengths and the former is no slouch having run the Irish 1000 Guines winner Samitar to 1 1/2 lengths.
I was reading her trainers comments saying they are waiting for her to surprise them but I reckon they are a bit more confident about her than that and she is a huge danger to them all.
I don’t need to back a saver so I am going to get stuck into Kiani in the place market as I can’t see her not being in the first 3. Hopefully I can a few doubloons to the treasure I’ll pick up should the Fugue win……..then I can buy Sprinter Sacre…or at least a hair of his tail
Thinking one thing and writing another. 
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