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Value is disappearing on Ballyburn NRNB, but a fair argument could stil be made for him at 16/1. On ratings 20f is his best trip, but he ran within 4lbs of his best over 16f while still a novice when winning a G1 At Leopardstown. Chasing was a curse, though he ran Sir Gino to 7 lengths at Kempton trying to give him 6lbs (16f). Won the Baring Bigham by 13 lengths so has no problems with the festival despite his poor show last year over fences.
Was fav for Stayers for a while, but they seem to have accepted he won’t settle over that trip. Champion Hurdle should be ideally run for him.
I echo that, GB.
Murphy reported as saying this is the target for Resplendent Grey (also in the Gold Cup) and at 25/1 NRNB, he looks an attractive bet. 4th in the NH chase before winning the Whitbread, then began the season over 20f to win the Colin Parker. Well fanced for the Hennessy next time, he dwelt in that chaotic standing start and was left well off the pace (usually likes to lie up). Ran the best rating of his career last time at Windsor behind Protektorat – trip shorter than ideal. Looks significantly over-priced with that money-back offer.
“The trainer said: “We knew what the risk factor was. It was too high, and the consequences were unthinkable. That’s what it kept coming down to. One minute, he goes to Southwell, and he’s done the most spectacular job for British racing. Then you realise what damage you could do if you went the other way and it went wrong. I’d say I would’ve packed up. It would have been the end of me if he got hurt, without a doubt.”
I’ve always been fond of Nicky. He’s the last of the old guard, but he gets away with utter bollocks like the above is incredible. It’s been 3 months since Constitution Hill last fell. If you feel like he claims to above, you announce the jump retirement next day.
Serious Challenge can be forgiven his last two runs: was amiss in the Greatwood, and failed to stay at Aintree. Before that had a nicely progressive profile, going for 4 in a row when finishing 4 of 14 in a C2 at Sandown. Pace here will be ideal and I have backed him at 11/1 and at 65 on Betfair for the County.
If you want a fun angle, I fed in the last ten year’s detailed trends using Horseracebase to chatGPT – here’s its verdict:
Strongest Trend Fits (Non-Cheltenham Model)
🟢 1. Theformismighty (9yo, 118, 32 days, 12/1)Age ideal
Fresh enough
Big RPR (147)
Mid-range price
Not favourite
Stayer profile
Most complete trend alignment.
🟢 2. Destroytheevidence (8yo, 12/1)
Slight age negative (8 not ideal but acceptable)
OR 134 workable
Price sweet spot
Trainer Bailey historically strong in this race
🟢 3. Lord Accord (11yo, 20/1)
Age perfect
Big price (race allows this)
Only concern: 98 days off
If fit, fits race pattern extremely well.
Horseracebase should allow you to check back on the success of gambling yards, though it is not the easiest UI to understand.
Marlingford is spot on. The current plans can only be 100% to run. Another schooling session will tell them zero unless he falls. His problem is not jumping; it’s either concentration or confidence when in a race, and there is bugger all a horde of Yogi Breisners can do about that.
All the preamble is window dressing. For two men who claim to love the horse so much but are willing to send him out on a literal wing and a prayer simply to have the chance of saying ‘I told you so!’ is beyond my comprehension.
Kempton tannoy – cringe making indeed. And all I cought was about 6 words before diving for the mute. If they keep this up there’ll be a popular campaign to close them!
Ruby, I’d happily have a fiver at 5/2 or 9/4 he won’t be there, but don’t like taking money from friends! Any bookies actually betting on this?
Among hundreds of other words, Nicky says this –
“We’ve got to bear this cross of responsibility. We owe that to racing and to everybody. It’s not me that’s wanting anything out of it.”
Another bollock-load of nonsense. If he believed this, the horse would be withdrawn from Cheltenham.
Instead he prattles on about things hingeing on next week’s schooling, the genius that is Yogi Breisner, the confidence in Nico … the full bucket of cognitive dissonance dredged up to try and make himself disregard what he has said a hundred times and what everyone who knows a thing about horse racing quickly discovers – the gallops, the schooling ground, the homework have the sum total of bugger all to do with what a horse will do on a racecourse. They found that out before his last run when he was ‘electric’, ‘jumping superbly’ etc at home, yet they roll back round with the same guff.
If nothing else, connections have filled the public goodwill pot by running at Southwell. Will they risk this, their whole career reputations, and arguably the future of NH racing on one false step from a horse who has made so many? I have racked all sides of my brain on an objective front trying to understand their supposed dilemma over something that should not even be under debate.
Well, the farther he went without seeing a hurdle the happier he was. Reading between the lines on Buckley’s words – how much he loves him and how much he cries, but, significantly, I think, this: “He is a little older than most horses that start out on the flat but he is something special” He didn’t say ‘run on the falt’ or ‘appear on the flat’ etc.
I’m fairly confident he won’t run again over hurdles.
‘Mullins said he has a couple more things to try- I think they will be hood off, earplugs in, possibly cheekpieces on‘
The hokey-cokey?
A million words written on this and I still don’t know why the horse is running? A fittener for Cheltenham?(therefore decision on Champion Hurdle already made). To find out his level on the flat with a view to switching codes? A confidence booster- going racing without the threat of having to jump? Have connections answered these questions?
