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Steeplechasing

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  • in reply to: Peter Marsh Chase 2020 #1480171
    SteeplechasingSteeplechasing
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    Well done Jeff and DBR – absolutely hosed up

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    in reply to: Wylies #1479927
    SteeplechasingSteeplechasing
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    Casualties will almost certainly have played a part but the costs of running such an operation, unless you have limitless funds, is like feeding very expensive buns to an elephant herd 24/7/365

    Graham’s business background must nag away quietly at him with every training bill that comes in. He stayed very loyal to HoJO shifting a mountain of money his way. I suspect he has learned some hard lessons.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    in reply to: Peter Marsh Chase 2020 #1479926
    SteeplechasingSteeplechasing
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    If things pan out the way I think they will, Saturday’s Peter Marsh Chase (2.40 Haydock) will look more like a John Ford movie as they head for home, with Red Indian and Geronimo leading the pack. Red Indian is particularly good value at 25/1. He relishes the mud and has a record on heavy ground of 121. Four of his last 9 runs have been in graded company, including a 4th of 7 behind La Bague Au Roi in a Grade 1.

    He has 10st 11lbs here minus the 5lbs his jockey Ben Jones claims (top weight is Definitly Red with 11.10)

    Red Indian has run his best races after longish breaks and he comes here having been rested for 287 days. He should not be 25/1. I’d normally back him each way but instead I will have a saver on the improving horse and the least exposed, Geronimo, who has won on heavy.

    Geronimo has the almost perfect profile of an improver when you use Racing Post Ratings to measure progress. His career figures are: 103 103 107 114 114 119 123 132 135 137.

    His trainer Sandy Thomson knows what he’s doing and the yard is in cracking form -4 winners from his last 10 runners with just one of those unplaced.

    You can back both with Bet365 who are currently best odds and also protect you with the best odds guarantee. Red Indian is 25/1 and Geronimo 7/1.

    Summary

    Red Indian 25/1 win only: 3* bet

    Geronimo 7/1 win only 1* bet

    View discussion

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    in reply to: Cheltenham 2020 bets #1479854
    SteeplechasingSteeplechasing
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    As soon as the NRNB markets open I like to have a few multiple bets safe in the knowledge that my money won’t be lost on non runners.

    Skybet are NRNB on all festival races while Bet365 are NRNB on the 5 major races: The Gold Cup, The Champion Hurdle, Queen Mother Champion Chase, Stayers Hurdle and the Ryanair.

    I’ve only had a cursory look through the Skybet markets and no obvious value jumps out. It doesn’t help that they’re only quoting around half the likely fields in the handicaps. Anyway, onto my recommended value bet.

    The Gold Cup

    I was impressed by Al Boum Photo’s recent win at Tramore and I’ve already tipped Lostintranslation at 14/1. But the standout value in this Bet365 market is Sizing John at 50/1, three or four times the price he should be if he turns up here. He won the Gold Cup in 2017, followed up at the Punchestown Festival and disappointed Leopardstown where he finished distressed and was declared clinically abnormal by the vet.

    Two years passed before we saw him back on track in Ireland on December 31st. He looked on very good terms with himself as he travelled well in the 20f hurdle and had just moved into 2nd when he stumbled after landing over two out and came down. He seemed none the worse for it and is due to turn out at next month’s Dublin Festival, after which I’d expect his Gold Cup odds to shorten dramatically.

    The Champion Hurdle

    Still something of a dark horse is Saldier although he is just 6/1 for this. He’s improved hugely in his last three runs, winning the Grade 1 Morgiana Hurdle on his first run this season. There looks to be quite a bit more to come from him especially as his trainer Willie Mullins has reportedly altered his training routine this season to give his horses a (‘quieter time’). Patrick Mullins said this recently on Racing TV, speculating that, given how almost every Mullins horse this season has needed its first run, they’ve no idea what Saldier could be capable of.

    Queen Mother Champion Chase

    I’ve tipped and backed Defi Du Seuil for this at 20/1 and 16/1. He’s a 7/2 chance now and Hobbs has yet to commit him to this saying The Ryanair remains an alternative depending on ground and opposition. I’ve backed Defi Du Seuil at 7/2 NRNB for the Ryanair to save my Queen Mother Champion Chase stakes. If you have backed him for the two miler I suggest you also save your stakes via that NRNB Ryanair option.

    So, the value in the current market is another Mullins horse I’ve always liked: Cilaos Emery. He’s 8/1 for this after landing the Grade 2 Hilly Way Chase last time out, following up his seasonal debut victory in a Grade 2. He’s 3 from 3 over fences, already a much better chaser than he was a hurdler and could still have quite a bit to come.

    Stayers Hurdle

    Many will be avoiding the hotpot here in Paisley Park, but Summerville Boy stands out as value at 25/1. His novice season was his best, capped by winning The Supreme. He lost his way the following season although he raced in quality company most of the time. At the start of this season he was put over fences, resulting in a win at Uttoxeter and a fall at Sandown.

    Back over hurdles in The Relkeel next time he was up in trip to 20f and he made the running, the first time those tactics have been tried since very early in his career. He seemed to relish both changes – trip and tactics and I think he is a much better horse than his overall profile suggests. I doubt he’ll have a problem with the extra half mile here – it might even bring out more improvement – and it will be fascinating watching him go from the front again if that’s what his connections choose to do.

    In Summary

    I recommend and EW Lucky 15 with Bet365 who pay as a bonus in Lucky 15s: double the odds for one winner only, and a 15% bonus to win money (not the EW part) if all four come in.

    Gold Cup – Sizing John 50/1

    Champion Hurdle – Saldier 6/1

    Queen Mother Champion Chase – Cilaos Emery 8/1

    Stayers Hurdle – Summerville Boy 25/1

    A £1EW Lucky 15 pays £129,149.60. for the win part and £951.68 for the place part.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    in reply to: Nicky Henderson and his fairy tales #1479777
    SteeplechasingSteeplechasing
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    Interesting, Greenasgrass … what makes you say he has fistulous withers? I know Hendo spoke of abscess trouble – is that a hint? Googling suggests it’s a pretty grim condition

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    in reply to: Then and Now – January #1479608
    SteeplechasingSteeplechasing
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    A fascinating thread. Thanks.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    in reply to: Classic Chase 2020 #1479605
    SteeplechasingSteeplechasing
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    Nice one Cork and Darren. Hard lines Lemons

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    in reply to: 2020 Grand National #1479598
    SteeplechasingSteeplechasing
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    • Total Posts 5767

    I’ve taken 25/1 KC, Peter. I backed him two or three times in 2018 and lost faith in him. Headgear seems to have transformed him and that was the best Grand National trial I’ve seen since One For Arthur won the same race in 2017. Unlike that one, KC was in the van throughout off a sound pace, jumped better than I thought he would on a tricky track and absolutely powered away at the end. I was thinking he might go up 7lbs; we shall see.

    Another unusual factor for me was watching him run through the whole race seemingly with the choke out, never looking relaxed or switched off in the way many stayers are. I had strong doubts he’d get home.

    Trainer says he will only go to Aintree if the ground is suitable. Most of his racing has been on soft. The National has not been run on good ground since 2012. The last 7 runnings have met the course’s declared policy of having easy ground for the race. Even at good to soft they must surely take their chances with a horse who’s catching fire at exactly the right time.

    Until now I fancied Elegant Escape strongly, but I fear Tizz will balls up his schedule. Even at his best I think he’ll struggle to beat the KC we saw today. One potential downside is that the effects of the headgear will wear off, but he looked the most genuine horse in the world today.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    in reply to: Steeplechasing's Value Horses #1479597
    SteeplechasingSteeplechasing
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    Hmm, I’m not sure I’m grasping the correct structure here! :(

    Anyway, onwards and upwards

    Kimberlite Candy Grand National 25/1. 10pts win

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    in reply to: Steeplechasing's Value Horses #1479537
    SteeplechasingSteeplechasing
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    3.00 Warwick

    Le Breuil 7/1

    The Conditional. 4/1

    Mysteree 22/1

    ……………………….
    3.35 Warwick

    Special Acceptance. EW to 4 places. 25/1
    …………………………
    Kempton
    2.05 Kauto Riko. 10/1

    2.40 Tight Call 8/1

    3.45. Fransham 12/1

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    in reply to: Classic Chase 2020 #1479462
    SteeplechasingSteeplechasing
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    Saturday’s Warwick Chase is always a good test of jumping and stamina. If I could be sure about The Conditional’s stamina, I’d make him the sole bet. But this is his first attempt at the trip on ground that is currently soft. His form since moving from Ireland has been a revelation. He won a decent race at Cheltenham and was then 2nd in the Ladbrokes Trophy (Hennessy), looking tired jumping the last but battling on well (especially when challengers reached his flank) to hold onto second. Saturday will see him try three furlongs farther than he has before, although the opposition are not in quite the same class as many of his Newbury opponents were. Also, Warwick is a much tighter, sharper track than either Cheltenham or Newbury with, arguably, fewer chances of a breather.

    Le Breuil is one of my Grand National fancies. He left all previous form behind in his first attempt at marathon distances when he won the NH Chase at last year’s festival. This will be his first run since that demands similar stamina. Luca Morgan, a good 7lb claimer rides and Le Breuil should leave the shadow of his last two runs behind.

    But the best value here, I think is the 12-y-o Mysteree. He’d been out of form all of 2018 making no impression in 5 outings. In February 2019 they tried blinkers for the first time and he ran a stormer in The Eider, beaten a neck by Crosspark (an old friend of this blog who sadly seems to have lost his form). Mysteree returned this season in October and skated up at Kelso over 3m2f and then ran a poor race at Aintree, which is what I think has made him too big a price here.

    That run was Mysteree’s first over the Grand National fences and I think it’s worth assuming that he simply hated them. Facing those green spruce ‘walls’ after years of jumping black birch might just have left him wondering what was going on. Like Le Breuil he is guaranteed to stay and, fingers crossed, to jump round. The blinkers are on again and while there is always the chance that their effect has faded, and that contributed to the Aintree run, I am happy at the price of 14/1 to pay to find out.

    Mysteree is my biggest bet as he represents best value. I’ll have a smaller bet on Le Breuil at 8/1 and then just enough on The Conditional to cover all my stakes.

    The prices are all with Betvictor who offers best odds guaranteed, so there is no downside of taking these prices now. Betvictor also offer 4 places if you’d rather bet EW.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    in reply to: RSA 2020 #1479366
    SteeplechasingSteeplechasing
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    Champ’s fencing technique is fine. He has the makings of a very good jumper and just needs more experience. The Cheltenham fall looked like a lack of concentration.

    I’m not convinced 3m at festival pace is what he wants but he’s so good I’d back him in the RSA even though I think he’d have an easier task in The Marsh

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    in reply to: Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020 #1478962
    SteeplechasingSteeplechasing
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    Hmmm, Hang In There a ghost of the horse he was at Cheltenham. Asked for an effort there he went quickly clear. Asked today, found absolutely zero, going from first to 4th in a few strides. Got to have been amiss

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    in reply to: Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020 #1478868
    SteeplechasingSteeplechasing
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    Lavelle’s Hang In There runs in The Tolworth tomorrow and I think he’ll win it. A front runner with a huge appetite for it looks like he will take some passing. We’ll know more this time tomorrow but I’ve taken 33/1 for The Supreme.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    in reply to: Cheltenham 2020 bets #1478410
    SteeplechasingSteeplechasing
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    Keep the faith with Lostintranslation for Gold Cup – not for the first time Tizzard has gone to the well too often/soon (that £1m bonus is becoming a poisoned chalice)

    Can’t see why Defi Du Seuil hasn’t hardened to go clear fav for the Queen Mother Champion Chase

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 5,597 total)