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FOLLOWING THE MONEY
Can anyone help with my frustration. I would like to know if there is a way to identify Trainers who’s runners are market movers and have a good record in win or even place.I have explored so many factors of racing including: sales, sires, progeny outcomes, entries, known form etc etc, the only constant that has shown up consistenly are the market movers.
Ideally, I would wish to produce a list of Trainers with a record of having these market movers and showing a reasonable return. I cannot source the info anywhere, and it would be impossible to look back on past outcomes to identify those bet alongside the Trainer and the outcome – help.
AlexThe Bookies know but aren’t going to tell you!
I've stumbled on the side of twelve misty mountains
I've walked and I crawled on six crooked highwaysStart with gambling yards , SSR highlight movers both ways daily
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
Racing Post newspaper in the results section would have an opening price and SP plus the amounts of big bets placed
not sure if they still do thatGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Hi
Thanks for the suggestion folks however;I’ve taken stock of what was needed and designed a database with not too many fields:
*Note significant investment enough to move the early market.
*Record all such Runners,Trainers alongside their % of odds movement each day.
*Produce a spreadsheet to include the Runner + % of movement + Trainer + Jockey + odds + number of runners.
*About eight NH runners each day are recorded that have been the best bet.
*The spreadsheet will soon produce enough data to enable a useful alphabetical sort of Trainers.
*Within the sorted list identifying trends re these Trainers / Jockeys will show up !NB* Ive used CHAT GPT to help record the data. Manually doing so would become a bore as it needs to be done daily and enthusiasm could be a problem long term. A large database is needed here.
I don’t think I can give an image sample of the database on this site ?
AlexIf you were betting fair amounts you’ve have to time how closely you’re following the money just right though, like how close do you tail somebody under surveillance. Too late and the value is gone, lump on too early before connections have got on all they want to at the right price and the horse will develop a temperature or the lorry a puncture. Or you could just bet small enough not to move anything which is fine, you can probably make quite a nice little living from the crumbs that fall unnoticed from the insiders’ table.
Greenasgrass you make some really informed comments, and thanks for that. I accept that I will be taking the crumbs off the table mostly, but there maybe occasions when I reckon the data leads me to venture a bet anticipating that the odds will tumble later on.
Yesterday Rap Soul WON (Plumpton 16:151) Richard Bandey, Harry Bannister 7/2 early 100/6 5ran.
This coup went somewhat under the radar :RAP SOUL, runner-up in an Irish point in 2024, had been well beaten in a bumper and three hurdle starts since but, having been well backed, posted an improved effort, switched to fences on this handicap debut, winning comfortably. There should be more to come.
Alex
I am sure this angle, well you could call it a potential edge if you have had a snifter, has been well covered by the farmer his cook at home wife their escapee sons and the cows wondering when the hell are going to be milked. That being said I wish you every luck and enjoyment in the monitoring.
It is good discipline to set the bar low but drippings may be a little below the waterline and what you may end up with are dustings.
The idea is Benter like in its logic but perverse in distancing the horse and engaging the gambler, however that being said it does make sense.
There have been some good cautionary responses on this thread.Raising the bar somewhat – I have it on good authority that there are a few making an annual seven figures from horseracing – it is called the multi brained approach. The only problem is you have to share the bounty with the other brains.
I could go on but I won’t!
Horseracebase should allow you to check back on the success of gambling yards, though it is not the easiest UI to understand.
The description on the W Hill racing cards often says ‘check market moves’ which imo gives a clue as to which stables are betting ones…
My last post may have been a touch condescending to the author of this thread – I blame the incessant voices and that nut that calls himself whathisname.
The last time I ever offered anything of value to this hallowed place was when the boot came in.
If you assume the mentality of Dennis Hopper in his protagonist role in Blue Velvet you might well, set in that strange mindset, consider a full time career betting on horses as a possible career move. Quite a few citi types chanced their luck on the exchanges just post the millennium. Some couldn’t hack it, others stayed until the tax took hold. Thinking back, Betfair or Butterbar as I then called it, put out a special announcement and advised how many on their ‘death to the bookie’ platform were making 15k a year. It was in 2002 and I remember the numbers but I very much doubt any of you you do – 15 people in a thousand. Hmmm not many if it’s to be taken as gospel, and many of that number may have been price traders I. Price trading was a natural progression on P2P’s but to the straight back and lay boys they were considered the snide devil incarnate.
Hats off to those who have made a reasonable yearly wedge over time betting on horses. I suppose it beats driving a bus but possibly the bus driver may have a more comfortable ride, and has a pension at a later stage in life if the piles don’t get him, when the horse follower is using a magnifying glass to study the form whilst taking the odd painkiller for his back.In my next brief I may explain how much you can earn on the platforms.
Alternatively, I may not !Although a ‘market mover’ may indicate a selection receiving particular attention from punters what it doesn’t tell you is how much money it’s taken to reduce the price.
You may only be talking a few thousand to bring a horse down from say 10 or 12/1 to 8/1 with others attracting the same or more cash and their price might go from 7/2— 3/1.
So to my mind it’s all relative and simply one needs to use your own judgement and experience.
good luck to allI take the point from Backcountry and if ever I can access the data re the favourites outcomes I will be able to delve much deeper. However, the problem that I have is that getting the right data is proving difficult. Certainly, A1 such as Google, Chat GPT and Claude are all submitting very dubious info. Quite frankly feeding in the same prompts a few hours apart from the same A1 programmes delivers often differing results. Hmm !, too much to manually input for my needs searching for the favourite results so I how have to think again. I cannot purchase yet another software package as I already subscribe to the racing post. That’s enough for a hobby for me. I was hoping that A1 could search accurately simple requests re favourites but this is not the case.
I think I have to think it out again – as was sung in Oliver.
Alex
The possible edge looks interesting, even exotic if you’re sitting in downtown snifterville, but when you wake up in the morning and reach for the cornflakes the reality suddenly hits you and it’s written large on the kitchen table, ‘ I am reliant on external forces ‘ i.e. others betting habits. If those habits migrate from authentic platforms and into illegal areas you’ve suddenly lost your daytime job and the 500 testing model is akin to Paul Sheldon’s Misery – completely yella’ and up to in flames.
I am not decrying its possible effectiveness just pointing out the weaknesses of relying on the clanI am of the opinion that there are some commonalities in horseracing results. The edge possibilities depend on if ‘er over the garden fence knows about it. When you put the cat out at night and spot a large nose resting on the woodwork followed by demonic laughter there’s a fair chance she’s clued you out !
The Champion Hurdle saw not unexpectedly good figures ie.
HOW THE FAVOURITES FARE: T. COUNT FAV FAV & WON
RUNNER: LOSSIEMOUTH 18 13 10 77%
TRAINER: W MULLINS 78 31 19 60%
TRAINER : FAVOURITES CONTRASTED AGAINST RUNS 1 : 3Maybe others will not be able to match such high standards.
Wednesday sees a few less attractive favourites with the Irish dominance. There are however some interesting outcomes.
1.20pm No Drama This End looks strong here.
HOW THE FAVOURITES FARE: T. COUNT FAV FAV & WON
RUNNER: No Drama This End 6 3 3 100%
TRAINER: Paul Nicholls 78 27 17 52%
TRAINER FAVOURITES RATIO IE. FAVOURITES : RUNS. 1 : 32.00 pm Romeo Coolio has the form when fav and G Elliot ok with his strike.
HOW THE FAVOURITES FARE: T. COUNT FAV FAV & WON
RUNNER: ROMEO COOLIO 13 9 8 89%
TRAINER: G ELLIOT 92 23 14 52%
TRAINER FAVOURITES RATIO IE. FAVOURITES : RUNS. 1 : 44.00pm Cramped odds but with enough “favourite form” (50%) should be up to the mark.
HOW THE FAVOURITES FARE: T. COUNT FAV FAV & WON
RUNNER: MAJBOROUGH 9 6 3 50%
TRAINER: W MULLINS 78 31 19 60%
TRAINER : FAVOURITES CONTRASTED AGAINST RUNS 1 : 34.40pm Be Aware with Dan Skelton looks weak regarding favourite outcomes and could be a swerve.
HOW THE FAVOURITES FARE: T. COUNT FAV FAV & WON
RUNNER: BE AWARE 12 6 1 17%
TRAINER: DAN SKELTON 109 30 13 43%
TRAINER FAVOURITES RATIO IE. FAVOURITES : RUNS. 1 : 4—————————————————————————————
THURSDAY LOOKS TO PRODUCE BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE FAVOURITES
In the 1.20pm Mullins again looks to have a lively favourite, but there warning signs in the market.
HOW THE FAVOURITES FARE: T. COUNT FAV FAV & WON FAV winning %
RUNNER: BAMBINO FEVER (7) (4) (3) 75%
TRAINER: W P Mullins (117) (40) (26) 63%
TRAINER’S RECENT OUTCOMES IE. RUNS : FAVOURITES. 5 : 1 [ 138 ]
——————————
In the 2.00pm perhaps Sixmilebridge’s tissue is just too short given the Trainer’s not so good Fav win % and subsequent low rating of [96].
HOW THE FAVOURITES FARE: T. COUNT FAV FAV & WON FAV winning %
RUNNER: SIXMILEBRIDGE (8) (3) (2) 67%
TRAINER: Fergal O’Brien (68) (12) (4) 29%
TRAINER’S RECENT OUTCOMES IE. RUNS : FAVOURITES. 6 : 1 [ 96 ]
—————————–In the 2.40 this looks like a banker and is Gordon Elliots best chance.
HOW THE FAVOURITES FARE: T. COUNT FAV FAV & WON FAV winning %
RUNNER: WOODHOOH (10) (6) (6) 100%
TRAINER: Gordon Elliott (109) (25) (15) 51%
TRAINER’S RECENT OUTCOMES IE. RUNS : FAVOURITES. 8 : 1 [ 151 ]
——————————
In the 3.20 the other Gordon Elliot runner without quite the rating of his other favourite.
HOW THE FAVOURITES FARE: T. COUNT FAV FAV & WON FAV winning %
RUNNER: TEAHUPOO (16) (9) (7) 78%
TRAINER: Gordon Elliott (109) (25) (15) 51%
TRAINER’S RECENT OUTCOMES IE. RUNS : FAVOURITES. 8 : 1 [ 129 ]
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Good luck Alex
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