Following The Money

[Alexander]

FRIDAY’s GOLD CUP. With 3, possibly 4 contenders for favouritism they are listed below. THE JUKEBOX MAN DOES LOOK TO BE THE ONE ACCORDING TO THE RATING.[139]

HOW THE FAVOURITES FARE: T. COUNT FAV FAV & WON FAV winning %
RUNNER: THE JUKEBOX MAN (12) (5) (4) 80%
TRAINER: Ben Pauling (90) (24) (17) 59%
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 6 : 1 [ 139 ]
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HOW THE FAVOURITES FARE: T. COUNT FAV FAV & WON FAV winning %
RUNNER: GAELIC WARRIOR (18) (13) (8) 62%
TRAINER: W P Mullins (169) (59) (38) 63%
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 5 : 1 [ 124 ]
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HOW THE FAVOURITES FARE: T. COUNT FAV FAV & WON FAV winning %
RUNNER: HAITI COULEURS (13) (2) (2) 100%
TRAINER: Rebecca Curtis (54) (13) (7) 29%
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 5 : 1 [ 129 ]
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HOW THE FAVOURITES FARE: T. COUNT FAV FAV & WON FAV winning %
RUNNER: JANGO BIAE (12) (6) (2) 33%
TRAINER: Nicky Henderson (101) (55) (39) 63%
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 3 : 1 [ 96 ]
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[Alexander]

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FAVOURITES WITH INTEREST FOR TODAY (SATURDAY)

In the 3.00pm At Uttoxeter the favourite looks weak and I’ll be against this one.
HOW THE FAVOURITES FARE: T. COUNT FAV FAV & WON FAV winning %
RUNNER: J’Arrive De L’Est (34) (12) (2) 17%
TRAINER: Emmet Mullins (92) (28) (11) 23%
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 4 : 1 [ 40 ]
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In the 2.25 at Uttoxeter Dan Skeltons looks a better prospect but still the ratings are not really high enough for any confidence. Best watched.
HOW THE FAVOURITES FARE: T. COUNT FAV FAV & WON FAV winning %
RUNNER: A Pai De Nom (8) (5) (3) 60%
TRAINER: Dan Skelton (152) (42) (21) 53%
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 7 : 1 [ 113 ]
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[Alexander]

For the followers of Joe Tizzard he did not have a good Cheltenham, and has generally been out of form.
Tizzard is currently showing a ratio of 16 runners to each favourite. Kool kid has not been a favourite todate so there are a few firsts to aim for here at Plumpton.

PlUmpton 2.45pm
Mon
16/3/26
6/4 (5Run)

HOW THE FAVOURITES FARE: T. COUNT FAV FAV & WON FAV winning %
RUNNER: KOOL KID (10) (0) (0) #DIV/0!
TRAINER: Joe Tizzard (88) (13) (7) 32%
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 16 : 1 #DIV/0!

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Here is another short priced favourite but again there are glaring gaps in the form. Risk it All seems to like Plumpton but when backed on a couple of earlier occasions has been disappointing. Be wary re these couple of short priced favourites.

PlU 3.15pm
Mon
16/3/26
6/4 (9R)
HOW THE FAVOURITES FARE: T. COUNT FAV FAV & WON FAV winning %
RUNNER: RISK IT ALL (7) (2) (0) 0%
TRAINER: Gary & Josh Moore (92) (15) (12) 63%
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 12 : 1 [ 63 ]

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The rating for the favourite Fortunate Man at Ffos Las looks slightly more promising. An expensive purchase in 2023 with Trainer in form, albeit not from the favourite runs. The overall rating is somewhat below par but for a Monday’s card perhaps this figure of 76 will be ok.
FfLas 4.00pm
Mon
16/3/26
5/2 (9R)
HOW THE FAVOURITES FARE: T. COUNT FAV FAV & WON FAV winning %
RUNNER: FORTUNATE MAN (9) (5) (2) 40%
TRAINER: Jonjo & A J O’Neill (90) (21) (7) 36%
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 7 : 1 [ 76 ]

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[Alexander]

Dan Skelton throws a few relatively unexposed favourites in the mix at Exeter today. He has 5 runners at the meeting and travelled 156 miles from Warwick. Madajovy is a serious drifter from last night’s tissue. Dutch Corner and Ink Black Heart are still strong, so far today.

Exe 1.45pm
Tues 17/3/26
15/8 (16R)
HOW THE FAVOURITES FARE: T. COUNT FAV FAV & WON FAV winning %
RUNNER: DUTCH CORNER (3) (1) (0) 0%
TRAINER: HARRY SKELTON (121) (29) (16) 54%
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 7 : 1 [ 54 ]
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Exe 2.55pm
Tues 17/3/26
11/4 (11R)
HOW THE FAVOURITES FARE: T. COUNT FAV FAV & WON FAV winning %
RUNNER: Madajovy (8) (1) (0) 0%
TRAINER: Dan Skelton (121) (29) (16) 54%
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 7 : 1 [ 54 ]
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Exe 4.40pm
Tues 17/3/26
6/5 (10R)
HOW THE FAVOURITES FARE: T. COUNT FAV FAV & WON FAV winning %
RUNNER: Ink Black Heart (3) 0 (0) 0%
TRAINER: Dan Skelton (121) (29) (16) 54%
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 7 : 1 [ 54 ]
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[Alexander]

Jamie Snowden travels 75miles and has 2 runners Wednesday. In the 2.30 if Dwight K Schrute attracts money for favouritism alongside the 3.30pm runner Silver Hill it could be a profitable day.

Here 2.30 pm
Wed 18/3/26
9/4 (7R)
HOW THE FAVOURITES FARE: T. COUNT FAV FAV & WON FAV winning %
RUNNER: Dwight K Schrute (9) (1) (1) 100%
TRAINER: Jamie Snowden (49) (17) (10) 36%
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 6 : 1 [ 136 ]
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Here 3.30 pm
Wed 18/3/26
11/10 (10R)
HOW THE FAVOURITES FARE: T. COUNT FAV FAV & WON FAV winning %
RUNNER: Silver Hill (6) (3) (1) 33%
TRAINER: Jamie Snowden (49) (17) (10) 36%
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 6 : 1 [ 69 ]
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[Alexander]

HAVING BEEN MOVED TO THIS THREAD, HERE IS A SUMMARY OF HOW THE METHOD IS PUT TOGETHER:

FOLLOWING THE MONEY has proven to be quite lucrative so far ! Of course all the selections being favourites or very close to favouritism means limited profit with a bet or lay. Nevertheless, there should not be a long losing runs to kill off enthusiasm.

The method is not complicated. It examines both the respective Trainer and Runner’s form when favourite.
The Trainer’s earlier runs are counted, and the wins when favourite, transposed to percentages.
The Runners total runs are counted and wins when favourite also given as percentages.
Additionally, favourite runs and wins in the particular race grade for the runner is given as percentage.

The rating is obtained by the sum of three percentages as above. Rating shown in brackets [ ].

[Alexander]

It’s worth looking at this year’s Champion Hurdler, Lossiemouth. What a wonderful record !
Started off in a French Auction and not sold for 14000 Euros 2020
(Arqana Deauville Autumn (mixed) 737 From Normandie Breeding Not Sold)
Won a Maiden hurdle in Auteuil in 2022 and subsequently moved to Willie Mullins. Following an eight month break started her claim to fame with a Gr3 Fairyhouse win in Dec 2022. As the record highlights most runs since have been G1s. Overall 17 Races, 14 times fav and 11 wins as favourite.
In G1s 14 races, 12 times fav with 9 wins in this grade as fav.
From a sample; W.Mullins has a ratio of runs to favs as 5:1 and a 44% overall record with his favourites.

HOW THE FAVOURITES FARE: T. COUNT FAV FAV & W FAV winning %
RUNNER: LOSSIEMOUTH (17) (14) (11) 79%
CLASS G1 TODAY (14) (12) (9) 75%
TRAINER: W Mullins (98) (18) (8) 44%
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 5 : 1 [198]
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[Alexander]

Trainer Ross Burdon has only this single runner this evening and generally does not have too many well backed runners. Indeed Ernie’s Valentine has a record of 17 runs with being favourite on 1 occasion and winning. This one does not look a reliable type (inclined to dwell at start etc) but the race is interesting to see if the money holds up to keep this one favourite.

6.30PM Wolv AW FRI 20/3/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: ERNIE’S VALENTINE (17) (1) (1) 1.27237E-06 Poor
CLASS C3 (14) (1) (1) 1.39629E-05 Poor
TRAINER: Ross Burdon (50) (8) (4) 1.72468E-13 Poor
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 6 : 1 [0]

[Alexander]

Khrisma will likely go off favourite tomorrow and looks a fair bet. The only fly in the ointment that I can see is the upping of class for this handicap.

2.10pm Kelso H’c Hurdle 21/3/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: KHRISMA (5) (4) (2) 56% Good
CLASS C2 (1) (0) (0) n/E/Data
TRAINER: N Henderson (43) (15) (8) 89% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 3 : 1 [144]

UPDATE SAT MORNING ; looks to be moving towards odds on for the SP !
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[Alexander]

Sam Thomas makes the long trip (276m) tomorrow with Rocking Man and Just For Dad, both well fancied.
Rocking Man was also entered Warwick Thursday in a longer race.
Needs to improve on hurdling but in fairness has only had a couple of hurdles along with 3 NHFlats.
Carlisle is a testing track and the fav hurdle performance is only 31%.

1.45pm Carl Mon 22/3/26 Nov Hur T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: ROCKING MAN (5) (3) (2) 72% Good
CLASS C4 (1) (1) (1) 65% Good
TRAINER: Sam Thomas (52) (18) (10) 94% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 3 : 1 [230]
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[Alexander]

The historical fav winning % for hurdlers is (34%). However, Amateur H’cap hurdles do not have a good record for favourites and the rating confirms the uncertainty. Jonjo (81mile trip) has 3 runners with Mr Griffiths as the shortest priced.

2.45Winc Amateur H’c Hur Mon 23/3 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: MR GRIFFITHS (7) (3) (2) 72% Good
CLASS C4 (3) (0) (0) Limited Data
TRAINER: Jonjo & A J O’Neill (68) (13) (2) 3% Moderate
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 5 : 1 [74]

This is a classic case for LAYING: Amateur H’c Stat + low Rating + Wincanton favours speedy types.
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[Alexander]

Paul Nicholls fields 4 fancied runners tomorrow at his local track Taunton. Taunton is one of the best Tracks for favourites. Favs can run at 45% strike on a good day.

2.15pm Tau Nov Hur 8R Tue 24/3/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: FALLS OF ACHARN (7) (1) (1) 5% Moderate
CLASS C4 (1) (0) (0) Insu’ Data
TRAINER: Paul Nicholls (71) (17) (9) 90% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 4 : 1 [94]
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23.45pm Tau H’c Chase 6R Tue 24/3/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: WICKED THOUGHTS (10) (5) (2) 43% Good
CLASS C4 (5) (3) (0) Insu’ Data
TRAINER: Paul Nicholls (71) (17) (9) 90% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 4 : 1 [132]

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4.15pm Tau H’c Hur 7R Tue 24/3/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: TREASURE PLANET (4) (1) (1) 65% Good
CLASS C4 (3) (1) (1) 65% Good
TRAINER: Paul Nicholls (71) (17) (9) 90% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 4 : 1 [220]

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5.15pm Tau NH FLAT 6R Tue 24/3/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: ARTABAN (0) (0) (0) Insu’ Data
CLASS C5 (0) (0) (0) Insu’ Data
TRAINER: Paul Nicholls (71) (17) (9) 90% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 4 : 1 [90]

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[QUICKSAND]

You could do the following.

Sky Sports Racing check the Pointers for Trainers & Jockeys inform.
Then check Market Movers on various sites – Oddschecker – ATR – etc…,

Checvk if Trainers / Jockeys have any fancied rides and go from there.

[Alexander]

Thanks for the links Quicksand
Alex

[Alexander]

Looking at The Lincoln Handicap Sat. I’ve covered a few of RUNNERS where there has been strong support:
Not very inspiring but Eternal Force has the form when favourite or at least close to favouritism !

LINCOLN T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: ETERNAL FORCE (7) (2) (2) 88% Good
CLASS C2 (0) (0) (0) N/E/D
TRAINER: William Haggas (10) (5) (3) 76% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 2 : 1 [164]
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LINCOLN T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: VALVANO (9) (3) (1) 27% Good
CLASS C2 (5) (1) (0)
TRAINER: Ralph Beckett (14) (6) (5) 98% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 2 : 1 [125]
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LINCOLN T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: ROGUE DIPLOMAT (10) (2) (1) 42% Good
CLASS C2 (2) (1) (1) 65% Good
TRAINER: James Owen (51) (13) (5) 50% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 4 : 1 [157]
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[Alexander]

Back to the mundane tomorrow Monday 30th March.
The favourite Jackomy looks strong here. 2nd in betting not so ! Perhaps this is an occasion for taking the odds on.

3.27PM LUDLOW T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: JACKOMY (7) (1) (1) 65% Good
CLASS C5 CL & Higher (6) (1) (1) 65% Good
TRAINER: Neil Mulholland (66) (6) (3) 65% Good
TOTAL RUNS / CLASS + & RUNS AS % (7) (6) 43% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 11 : 1 [237]
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3.27 Ludlow T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: Oakley’s Way (10) (5) (1) 12% Poor
CLASS C5 CL & Higher (10) (3) (1) 27% Moderate
TRAINER: Anthony Honeyball (62) (15) (5) 35% Moderate
TOTAL RUNS / CLASS + & RUNS AS % (10) (10) 100% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 4 : 1 [174]
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[Alexander]

Chepstow today with Marlacoo who is todate proving very expensive to follow. The failures to do the business when favourite results in a low rating of 124.
Authentic Legacy has on the other hand a much higher rating mainly due not to the moderate form of the runner, but the excellent conversion rate of favourites from Gary & Josh Moore.

4.07 Chp 2/4/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: Authentic Legacy (10) (3) (1) 27% Moderate
CLASS C4 CL & Higher (10) (3) (1) 27% Moderate
TRAINER: Gary & Josh Moore (61) (9) (6) 95% Good
TOTAL RUNS / CLASS + & RUNS AS % (10) (10) 100% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 7 : 1 [249]
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4.07 Chp 2/4/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: Marlacoo (13) (8) (2) 17% Moderate
CLASS C CL & Higher (14) (8) (1) 3% Poor
TRAINER: Tom Lacey (56) (16) (3) 5% Poor
TOTAL RUNS / CLASS + & RUNS AS % (13) (14) 100% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 4 : 1 [124]
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[Author]

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