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HIGH CLASS AW meeting at Lingfield. Fri 3rd April. Tight handicap with tissue favourite My Fermoy struggling to obtain a rating that gives any confidence. Another close in the betting Dark Moon Rising has had 42 races without ever being Favourite. Well that is so far. Maybe different Friday. With limited data this one still holds a rating advantage over My Fermoy.
3.15pm LIN AW Fri T. COUNT FAV FAV&W PROb COMMENT
RUNNER: MY FERMOY (6) (1) (1) 65% Good
CLASS C3 CL & Higher (1) (0) (0) N/E/Data
TRAINER: Denis Coakley (40) (6) (3) 65% Good
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (6) (1) 8% Poor
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RATING] 7 : 1 [137]—————————————————
3.15 Lin (AW) 43/4/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: DARK MOON RISING (42) (0) (0) N0 Fav
CLASS C3 CL & Higher (35) (0) (0) No Fav
TRAINER: Kevin Ryan (66) (14) (7) 82% Good
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (42) (35) 100% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 5 : 1 [181]
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Hi Alexander
i like the amount of work you are doing.
Also support the idea of producing novel ratings.Personally i use the first RacingPost fc odds as a
way of establishing a baseline reading before the
betting shenanigans begin.Flip flopping Favourites (particularly in low class races)
are a prime example of the “money talking…”.D21
Cheers Dynamite – comments much appreciated.
I also follow the racing post as a tissue for the races. Dark Moon Rising (Lin 3.15pm) makes for interest today in very open looking h’cap. 42 races without being fav to date but Kevin Ryan has good record with Favs.
AlexAlex,
Dark Moon Rising is a very decent SHOUT!
iam familiar with the horse (it slipped my net at 28/1 a while back)Just watched his only run at this track on 27feb26
it was an eyecatching sighter for this race imo.
Timeform make it the no.1 pick.RP tissue 10/1 was 12/1 yesterday on oddschecker
now generally 5/1Managed to get [£20 ew4 6.49/1 with William Hill]
*nice boost & £5 freebetCheers from
D21Hi D21, Same runner, Iv’e taken 2/1 to be placed in top 3. Not very courageous but I took a hit the other day and still licking my wounds.
AlexWill be fascinating race to watch (& ferociously competitive)
Dark Moon Rising is a winner in waiting, maybe today.D21
“you learn more when money is down”D21 you dodged a bullet with a 4th yesterday.
Anyway, onwards and upwards, AL QAREEM and Karl Burke have amassed a really high rating. Said to need a pipe opener to be at his best but notwithstanding that fact looks a banker.2.30 Muss Sat 4/4/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: AL QAREEM (35) (6) (5) 98% Good
CLASS C1 CL & Higher (20) (4) (4) 99% Good
TRAINER: K R Burke (105) (14) (5) 42% Good
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (35) (20) 99% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 8 : 1 [338]—————————————————————————–
2.30 Muss Sat 4/4/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: MOUNT ATLAS (13) (3) (1) 27% Moderate
CLASS C1 CL & Higher (10) (0) (0) N/E/Data
TRAINER: Andrew Balding (63) (25) (14) 97% Good
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (13) (10) 100% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 3 : 1 [224]
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2.30 Muss Sat 4/4/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: ROARING LEGEND (28) (11) (4) 43% Good
CLASS C1 CL & Higher (14) (0) (0) N/E/Data
TRAINER: Olly Murphy (22) (6) (4) 88% Good
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (28) (14) 93% Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 4 : 1 [223]———————————————————
Unusual trip for Karl Burke to Bath Sunday. Single runner at the track and a long journey !
Beautiful Diamond looks strong for this C1 at a very modest course. Given the value of the race there are quite a few who have made the long trip including a couple of Irish challengers. Of the fancied runners the main danger could come from Clive Cox’s Hold A Dream. Ruby’s Profit has some good form in C1’s but that was a couple of years ago and since hasn’t made that grade.3.10 Bath Sun 5/4/26. T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND (13) (6) (3) 0.6471 Good
CLASS C1 CL & Higher (10) (6) (3) 0.6471 Good
TRAINER: K R Burke (125) (18) (9) 0.8609 Good
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (13) (10) 0.9975 Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 7 : 1 [315]
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3.10 Bath Sun 5/4/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: MISS ATTITUDE (26) (2) (0) N/E/Data
CLASS C1 CL & Higher (5) (0) (0) N/E/Data
TRAINER: Jack Channon (54) (12) (6) 0.7873 Good
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (26) (5) 0.0242 Poor
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 5 : 1 [81]
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3.10 Bath Sun 5/4/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: HOLD A DREAM (9) (1) (0) N/E/Data
CLASS C1 CL & Higher (6) (0) (0) N/E/Data
TRAINER: Clive Cox (54) (11) (6) 0.8513 Good
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (9) (6) 0.9464 Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 5 : 1 [179]
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3.10 Bath Sun 5/4/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: SHINE ON ME (7) (2) (1) 0.4225 Good
CLASS C1 CL & Higher (3) (0) (0) N/E/Data
TRAINER: Archie Watson (45) (7) (3) 0.5323 Good
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (7) (3) 0.5323 Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 6 : 1 [148]——————————————————–
T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: RUBY’S PROFIT (16) (2) (1) 0.4225 Good
CLASS C1 CL & Higher (2) (0) (0) N/E/Data
TRAINER: Dr R Newland & J Insole (66) (11) (6) 0.8513 Good
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (16) (2) 0.0098 Poor
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 6 : 1 [128]———————————————————
Dark Cloud Rising looks a fair shout tomorrow at Pontefract.
3.57 Pont Tues 7/4/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: DARK CLOUD RISING (16) (1) (1) 0.6500 Good
CLASS C2 CL & Higher (9) (0) (0) N/E/D
TRAINER: David O’Meara (31) (3) (3) 0.9571 Good
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (16) (9) 0.9329 Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 10 : 1 [254]
________________________________________________________Quinault sits well in this C1 and looks to have the measure of the others vying for favouritism.
with a decent draw and with the aid of Marco Ghiani this is the selection today. (3.00pm Newmarket).3.00 Nmk Thurs 16th April T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: Time For Sandals (8) (1) (0) 0.4225 Good
CLASS C1 CL & Higher (5) (1) (0) 0.4225 Good
TRAINER: (32) (7) (4) 0.8002 Good
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (8) (5) 0.8939 Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 5 : 1 [253]
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3.00 Nmk Thurs 16th April T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: Aramram (23) (8) (3) 0.4278 Good
CLASS C1 CL & Higher (1) (0) (0) N/E/Data
TRAINER: (76) (9) (2) 0.1211 Poor
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (23) (1) 0.0000 Poor
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 8 : 1 [54]
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3.00 Nmk Thurs 16th April T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: Quinault (29) (6) (4) 0.8826 Good
CLASS C1 CL & Higher (14) (1) (1) 0.6500 Good
TRAINER: (78) (9) (5) 0.8283 Good
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (29) (14) 0.9022 Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATING] 9 : 1 [326]
——————————————————–Nicky Henderson has the single entry today (Sunday) with East India Express vying for favouritism. The figures are really good with resultant 300pts. 6/1 available this morning – that must be a good opportunity even for a place only bet ; 4 places Evens a banker.
3.27 PLUMPTON Sun 19/4/26 T. COUNT FAV FAV & W PROBABILITY COMMENT
RUNNER: EAST INDIA EXPRESS (14) (5) (4) 0.9459775 Good
CLASS C2 CL & Higher (6) (2) (1) 0.4225 Good
TRAINER: Nicky Henderson (59) (36) (25) 0.999973053 Good
CLASS + & RUNS AS % (14) (6) 0.640506254 Good
TRAINER’S RECENT RATIO IE. RUNS : FAV. + [RACE RATI 2 : 1 [300]___________________________________________________________-
UPDATE: very disappointing run – pulled up !
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