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Darkness Falls is bidding for victory in the prestigious Dewhurst Stakes, while Cock And Bull, Notable Dream, Apulia Bay and Boiling Point could upset the favourites in Saturday’s other events. In a new 1xBet.ie review, Emmet Kennedy analyses five races at Newmarket and highlights the runners worth keeping a close eye on.

13:15 Newmarket: Darley Stakes (Group 3), 1m1f – Boiling Point can strike again at Newmarket at 8/1

Boiling Point looks overpriced at 8/1 given his outstanding Newmarket record. Karl Burke’s five-year-old has won twice and placed twice from five visits to the Rowley Mile, including last year’s Cambridgeshire, when defying top weight over this course and distance with a career-best RPR of 128, the highest achieved by any runner in this field.

He has not quite reproduced that form this season but won a Listed race at Goodwood in May and was narrowly beaten there in July. Returning to his optimum nine furlongs on good-to-firm ground should suit, while his prominent racing style could be an advantage in a race lacking obvious pace.

Haatem arrives following a Group 3 victory at Kentucky Downs but must concede 3lb and has yet to win over this trip. The progressive The Lost King is respected, while Humidity could be dangerous if allowed an uncontested lead.

With proven course-and-distance form and conditions in his favour, Boiling Point looks the value at 8/1.

SELECTION: BOILING POINT (8/1)

13:50 Newmarket: Zetland Stakes (Group 3), 1m2f  – Apulia Bay can improve for the longer trip at 8/1

Drumbeat sets the standard after finishing third in a Curragh Group 2, recording an RPR of 108, but his effectiveness on fast ground remains a question at around 9/4.

Apulia Bay appeals at 8/1. Simon and Ed Crisford’s colt was outpaced before staying on strongly into third at Newbury, suggesting the step up to ten furlongs could unlock further improvement. He had previously won over 8½f at Nottingham and is closely related to a Group-placed performer over 1m4f.

His peak RPR of 99 leaves him with something to find, but his TopSpeed figure of 90 is the highest in the field.

Sword Salute could be dangerous if allowed to dictate, while Netherstream is another with stamina in his pedigree.

James Doyle takes the ride on Apulia Bay, whose pedigree, finishing effort and speed figure suggest he could bridge the ratings gap.

SELECTION: APULIA BAY (8/1)

14:25 Newmarket: Autumn Stakes (Group 3), 1m – Notable Dream has the figures to upset the favourites

Rock Montreal is an exciting prospect after finishing a head second in Listed company at Doncaster, but odds of 11/8 look short in a race where Proform forecasts a very weak pace.

Sergei Diaghilev, officially rated 107, has proven mile form and could enjoy a tactical advantage if allowed to dictate.

However, Notable Dream makes greater appeal at 11/2. Marco Botti’s colt recorded a career-best RPR of 113, the highest in this field, when beaten just three-quarters of a length by Fuel The Jet in the Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes over seven furlongs at Newmarket. He is bred to appreciate the extra furlong and has already demonstrated his effectiveness on the Rowley Mile.

The Proform trends favour horses rated 100 or higher, with 10 winners from 27 runners, compared with none from 40 rated below that threshold. Notable Dream’s official mark of 99 is a concern, but his latest RPR suggests he can perform above it.

With the best recorded RPR in the field and improvement possible over a mile, 11/2 looks generous.

SELECTION: NOTABLE DREAM (11/2)

15:00 Newmarket: Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1), 7f – Darkness Falls looks overpriced against Desert Castle

Unbeaten Desert Castle deserves favouritism after his impressive Champagne Stakes victory, which earned Charlie Appleby’s colt an RPR of 123, 2lb higher than Darkness Falls.

However, the speed figures tell a different story.

Darkness Falls recorded an exceptional TopSpeed figure of 106 when winning the Group 1 Golden Fleece Stakes at Leopardstown by 4¼ lengths. Desert Castle’s best figure is just 68.

Aidan O’Brien’s Camelot colt had previously won his Curragh maiden by seven lengths and brings proven Group 1 ability into this contest.

The drop from nine to seven furlongs is the obvious concern, but Newmarket’s demanding Rowley Mile should place greater emphasis on stamina.

Great Barrier Reef is respected after his Royal Ascot Group 2 victory in the Coventry Stakes and narrow Curragh defeat when conceding 5lb, although the two principals set a higher standard. However, he could improve for the step up in trip and is not one to dismiss. 

Desert Castle may be the most likely winner, but that does not make him the best bet. The odds compilers assessment gives him a 44% winning chance, compared with 38% for Darkness Falls.

At the currently available 3/1, Darkness Falls needs to win only 25% of the time to justify his price. His Group 1 form and outstanding speed figure make him the bet.

SELECTION: DARKNESS FALLS (3/1)

15:40 Newmarket: Cesarewitch Handicap, 2m2f – Cock And Bull can make his mark at 10/1

Last year’s winner Beylerbeyi has strong claims after finishing second to Caballo De Mar in Doncaster’s Group 2, but he is 10lb higher than twelve months ago and must overcome stall 22.

Cock And Bull appeals at 10/1.

Emmet Mullins’ five-year-old looked better than ever when winning over two miles at Galway in July, travelling strongly before asserting inside the final furlong. The additional two furlongs should suit given his proven stamina over hurdles, while a mark of 92 leaves room for improvement. His absence since Galway also suggests this valuable handicap may have been the target.

Stall 23 is a slight concern, with only five winners from 314 high-drawn runners in the Proform database, but his progressive profile makes him interesting at the price.

Dawn Rising is a tempting each-way alternative at 20/1. Second to Beylerbeyi in last year’s renewal, Joseph O’Brien’s nine-year-old now meets him on better terms and has the advantage of stall five and gets Ryan Moore, although his recent form has been disappointing.

Beylerbeyi remains the most likely winner, but Cock And Bull offers better value at 10/1.

SELECTION: COCK AND BULL (10/1)

EACH-WAY ALTERNATIVE: DAWN RISING (20/1)

Saturday’s Newmarket Betting Selections

• 13:15 Darley Stakes: Boiling Point (8/1)
• 13:50 Zetland Stakes: Apulia Bay (8/1)
• 14:25 Autumn Stakes: Notable Dream (11/2)
• 15:00 Dewhurst Stakes: Darkness Falls (3/1)
• 15:40 Cesarewitch: Cock And Bull (10/1)

BEST VALUE BET: DARKNESS FALLS (3/1)

BEST EACH-WAY ALTERNATIVE: DAWN RISING (20/1)

Follow Saturday’s major events at Newmarket, check the latest odds on 1xBet.ie, and pick your favourites. May every race deliver plenty of excitement!

The analytical piece was prepared by Emmet Kennedy — Presenter, Producer, and Owner of The Final Furlong Podcast, Broadcaster with TalkSPORT, and Broadcast Consultant —  with the support of 1xBet.ie.

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