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Barry
Geraghty’s record in Class One handicap hurdles, excluding Ireland,since 1996 . . .
62 rides
10 wins (16.1% Strike Rate)
Return on Investment (ROI) backing every runner at Betfair odds: 182.7% (100% = break even)
For comparison:
Ruby Walsh record in same category:
117 rides
13 wins (11.1% SR)
ROI 131%
AP McCoy
159 rides
20 wins (12.6 SR)
ROI(93.6 – a loss)
David Pipe’s record in the Class One handicap Hurdle, Imperial Cup:
6 runners
2 winners (33.3%Strike Rate)
Return on Investment (ROI) backing every runner at Betfair odds: 152.1% (100% = break even)
Geraghty has his first ever ride for David Pipe today in the Class One Imperial Cup on Arrayan who is around 7/1. Geraghty would normally ride for Nicky Henderson who runs the fancied Eradicate, although theres’ every chance Mr Henderson chose to give the ride to the talented claimer David Bass who lightens Eradicate’s load by 3lbs, so it must not be assumed that Barry Geraghty has ‘begged off’ to ride the Pipe horse.
Good luck
At a preview night last week, Ruby summed up the Gold Cup thus:
"Imperial Commander worked well at Kempton and the vibes from the camp are good. Even Paddy Brennan, who’s a pessimist, is quite bullish – you have to take that on board.
Long Run was brilliant in the King George but for my money he’s ground-dependent more so than track-dependent. His Paddy Power was on good, Sun Alliance was on good, all his French form is on soft. He can maintain a serious gallop on soft; he’s ground-dependent.
Denman’s had a wind op. Ran well in the Hennessy and must have some sort of a chance as has Kauto. I’d love Kauto to win a third Gold Cup as I think he’s the greatest horse of all time.
Kempes bolted in in the Irish Hennessey, he’ll love good ground and should run a good race. Pandorama looks ground-dependent but Noel Meade thinks the sun shines out of his rear end, he really fancies him. Midnight Chase would be too slow, Tidal Bay’s not good enough, Neptune Collonges is a bit old . . . I hope Kauto can win it – he’s not as fast as he used to be but he’s in good nick and looks value at 13/2, but for me Imperial Commander is the one to beat."
Stats and trends have become hugely popular in the past few years, especially for festival meetings. Maths was never my strong point – if I could work out a £2 double at 11/4 and 9/2 I was happy.
So when stats came to the fore in racing, I, like many, welcomed them. They were the S-Plan diet for form students – lose work, gain time painlessly.The first time I was alerted to the cracks in the stats ceiling was in 2008 when I had a very strong fancy for Captain Cee Bee in the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham.
But the stats boys said – “Ignore seven-year-olds, they have a very poor record”. The Supreme is a race for novice hurdlers aged four and older. I set about digging a bit deeper and found that in the previous ten years, only a handful of seven-year-olds had run in the Supreme. That blew the stat’s credence, making it a non-stat. It also helped Captain Cee Bee go off at a longer price so the ‘stat’ was helpful to me in the end.
Another, bound to pop up somewhere before next Friday, is “ignore six-year-olds (Long Run) who have a very poor record in the Gold Cup” But as the popular Paul Jones, the man who is to stats what Brian Epstein was to The Beatles, tells us in his annual Festival Guide , only three six-year-olds have run in the race since 1963.
My simplistic view is that, unless stats are published with a sample size, treat them with extreme caution. For a much more comprehensive and learned insight, you might find these articles interesting
http://thefiguresneverlie.blogspot.com/ … -list.html
http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing … 10111.html
Good luck
Joe
http://wp.me/P1o7dN-2Funeral march horns for print publishing grow ever louder.
Aren’t Betfair’s directors also legally compelled to do the best they can for their shareholders?
Their share price is half of what it was at its highest. There will be a significant degree of panic in the boardroom, I suspect.
If you are utterly honest and objective, and picture yourself sitting in the CEO’s chair at Betfair, what would you have done?
I used to work at the Tote and tried till my head was sore to get them to substantially lower deductions on all products, especially jackpot and scoop6.
Pointless.
They promote a £2m jackpot and pay out £1.4 then wonder why questions are asked.
As Tom Waites said "The large print giveth and the small print taketh away"
Fair point Pinza and, as others have castigated me for, the more people who get to know about it the faster towards financial doom we speed!
NJH has another today – Speed Master in the last at Ffos Las
NJH maintains his excellent record with Bumper debutants – today’s going in comfortably at BF odds of 2.56
The general ‘gossip’ from the Irish Preview Nights indicate Albertas Run will be going for the Gold Cup.
I’ve just posted an audio clip on my blog of Ruby talking about the race and giving his summary of all the contenders.
There’s an audio clip of Ruby taking about the Champion Hurdle from PP Preview night on my blog
Loser, Montjeu has actually had 26 runners which have run 44 times. Only 15 horses of his have run at the Festival: full article on my blog:
http://wp.me/1o7dNRed Riot, just updated the CH Preview on my blog. Most impressed with OW and if he has a flawless round he could easily win – but jumping remains the big question.
Fully updated Champion Hurdle preview up now if you need something to get you off to sleep! http://wp.me/p1o7dN-b
Shabby,
Many thanks for the kind comments.
Your point is a fair one on the face of it. I like to research and write, but I am no statistician, though I doubt that a sample of 15 horses who’ve run at The Festival would be considered anything like a sound sample.
Consider the mumber of other runners who have failed up that hill in the past, irrespective of breeding. I think this Montjeu theory is just something someone has latched on to because of Hurricane Fly’s high profile.
Anyway, we don’t have long to wait to find out
All the best
Joe
Sean, a fair point that we cannot guess at the reaction of the general public – perhaps some of RFC’s money would be better spent researching views of new and potential racegoers into horse welfare?
My suspicion is that if such a substantial number of diehard fans are up-in-arms over the Eider, the public are unlikely to feel sanguine if shown the footage.
Imperial Call wrote
"The Montjeu thing amuses me. How big a sample are we using? Blue Bajan, Won In The Dark and Noble Prince are the only decent Montjeus to have run at the festival. Hardly in Hurricane Fly’s class are they? Even then, Won In The Dark was a good third in the Triumph Hurdle and Noble Prince was hardly disgraced in the County Hurdle last year."I did some research for a blog article: only 15 of Montjeu’s stock have run at the festival:
Pace Shot finished 4th of 17 to Detroit City in The Triumph, beaten under 10 lengths. He was 100/1 SP (500 on Betfair) so arguably ‘outran’ his price.
Blue Bajan was 6th of 22 to Cap Cee Bee in The Supreme, beaten under 16 lengths; his form comment: “kept on approaching last and stayed on run-in but no chance with leaders” His relevant SP and Betfair SP – 33/38
Won in The Dark was 3rd of 14 to Celestial Halo in The Triumph, beaten under 5 lengths: “stayed on to chase leading duo 2 out, kept on but no impression soon after” SPs 16/27
Mon Michel was 8th of 22 in The County; he started at just 6/1 and was beaten under 13 lengths
Shortest was Alexander Severus who was 5/2 fav when finishing 4th in the Fred Winter (never raced again): “led going well after 2 out, ridden last, headed soon after and soon no extra”
Green Mile was 5th of 22, beaten 8 lengths, in The Pertemps; SPs: 8/10.5
Gloucester‘s best performance from three runs at the Festival was 6th of 28 in The County. SPs 50/95
Noble Prince finished a head in front of Gloucester that day; SPs: 11/14
It seems to me that a number of them ‘outran their price’, though a couple did worse than expected based on the market.
Full artilce here: http://wp.me/p1o7dN-1f
