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This is a post I made earlier in another forum when one guy said he didn’t think it would happen (Albertas in the Gold Cup):
I’m still not 100% convinced of it either. The way Jonjo said it and the fact thatwhile Albertas moved out to 12s in places he was cut back into 10s in a few places too. Either people just don’t know what Jonjo said yesterday or they’re trying to make a price for him. I reckon Jonjo doesn’t want him in the Gold Cup, he reckons the Ryanair is his race and Hemmings wants a runner.
McCoy says hes riding Albertas Run in the Gold Cup though. That, at least, is fact.
I’m about 70/30 Gold Cup. God I hope its not though.
(Thats a lot of reckoning!)
The general ‘gossip’ from the Irish Preview Nights indicate Albertas Run will be going for the Gold Cup.
I’ve just posted an audio clip on my blog of Ruby talking about the race and giving his summary of all the contenders.
Please watch a replay of the race below.
The winner jumped brilliantly from fence to fence and was going further clear at the finish, another 2 furlongs and he would have won by a distance.
If this horse gets into any semblance of a rhythm at Cheltenham he wins.
Long Run clearly has a chance but Imperial ought to be shorter in the betting as a previous winner. Furthermore LR prefers soft ground and possibly prefers right handed flat tracks so conditions might not be ideal.
The market seems to have it about right with IC and LR first and second favs , then Kauto and Denman as previous winners slightly past their best, then 4 outsiders (Kempes, Midnight Chase, Pandorama and Tidal Bay) plus a few relative rags like Neptune C and Albertas R.
So I don’t see any obvious betting angles now. Maybe a Long Run/Pandorama forecast would be good if it rains a lot.
Please watch a replay of the race below.
The winner jumped brilliantly from fence to fence and was going further clear at the finish, another 2 furlongs and he would have won by a distance.
If this horse gets into any semblance of a rhythm at Cheltenham he wins.
That’s a pretty big ‘if’, Sea Pigeon.
I’ve always maintained that the King George and Gold Cup are two entirely different challenges, each rewarding different attributes.
Kempton is a sharp, flat, right-handed track. It essentially rewards speed, and it’s no coincidence that during the last twenty five years, Desert Orchid, One Man and Kauto Star have excelled in the King George. Each of these had the ability to produce top class form over the minimum trip.
Cheltenham is a galloping, undulating, left-handed track. Desert Orchid won the King George four times, yet only once claimed the Gold Cup. One Man won the King George twice in emphatic fashion by 12L and 14L (Sandown), respectively, yet hit the proverbial ‘brick wall’ on the two occasions he ran in the Gold Cup. Kauto Star has thus far won four times around Kempton, with two Gold Cup triumphs to compliment them. He won the King George by a record breaking margin prior to the Gold Cup last year – and looked what happened at Cheltenham
To empasize the difference in the two races, Kauto Star is the only horse to complete the King George / Gold Cup double on more than one occasion. Make no mistake, Long Run is no Kauto Star.
Long Run is currently unbeaten in this country away from Cheltenham, unbeaten in two starts around Kempton. Some horses simply find travelling and jumping at pace around Kempton a doddle. When you consider horses like Desert Orchid, One Man and Kauto Star had the ability to compete with the best over two miles, competing over a fiercely run three miles didn’t faze them in the slightest.
Due to the undualtions of Prestbury Park, getting into a similar rhythm is much more difficult. They held an advantage over fellow three mile chasers around Kempton, but that advantage is negated by the nature of the track at Cheltenham.
In my view, Long Run has to prove that he can reproduce his best form around Cheltenham, which he has failed to do so on two occasions. Perhaps his flawless performance at Kempton was once again testament to the sublime skills of Yogi Breisner and he has finally turned the corner in the jumping department, or maybe, as already stated, he quite simply is not suited by the undualations of Cheltenham.
One Man, like Wayward Lad, found the demands of an extended three miles-two around Cheltenham beyond him, despite impressive victories over three miles.
Long Run not only has to prove that he handles Cheltenham, but that he can also stay the extra distance.
Excellent post Bosranic.
I for one would question if Long Run, since coming to these shores, has achieved anything more form-wise than Pandorama or Kempes. I honestly believe these two are capable of making the frame, especially Pandorama, who has always looked like he could be something special.
Riverside Theatre has looked good, particularly last time, but we don’t know for certain how he compares with the likes of Joncol, or indeed if 3 miles is his optimum trip.
Pandorama and Kempes are both more assured jumpers than Long Run. Of course, Long Run jumped perfectly fine last time, but personally I wouldn’t have bags of confidence in him doing the same thing in the Gold Cup.
I’d be fairly confident Pandorama will finish ahead of Long Run, and perhaps Kempes too, who remains very unexposed over the trip, and given better ground could surprise a few people.
The "Big 3" will all be tough nuts to crack though. Who says the Champion Hurdle is the race of the meeting?
This is shaping up to be a cracker!Surely the value has to lie with
Kauto Star
.
Anyone else think he will benefit from having Ruby back on board? I certainly do. AP is the undisputed champion but for me his galvanising style doesn’t suit all horses, Kauto being one of them.In my opinion.
Backed
Neptune Collonges
E/W two years ago but can’t see anything at a big price to run into the frame? Any ideas? Maybe if
Tidal
Bay
is on a ‘going’ day he could finish strongly for a place!?
Well i do think there will be plenty of humble pie to be eaten in this thread when Long Run wins with ease.
Have to disagree with Bosranic who says he aint no Kauto. Long Run having only just turned the age of 6, who would have won the KG at age 5 but for the delay, who has already won more prize money at age 6 (over £800,000) than any other chaser in history and is already rated 179 by the handicapper. How much had Kauto won at 6?
To say he doesn’t act at Cheltenham is tosh, both his efforts there were personal bests in terms of ratings, his first effort at Cheltenham as a five year old was after he had been on the go for over 12 months, the second carrying top weight over too short a distance when the stable was not in form yet he still ran a career best.
As to his jumping, well he hasn’t even fallen and his jumping was a joy to behold last time, whereas Kauto has fallen a few times.
WAKE UP SMELL THE COFFEE, THIS HORSE IS THE REAL DEAL
Undoubtedly Long Run is a class horse and will win Gold Cups but I can’t see him winning it this year. Like you said Pigeon, he is only 6 and I still think one of the older guard will be too good this year. Hopefully Denman!
what do the stats say about about long runs age ?
not good enough
not old enough
not strong enough
In response to Beau Ranger.
Long Run is breaking all the stats.
Tell me the last 6 year old chaser rated 179
Tell me the last 6 year old chaser to have won over £800k prize money
Tell me the last 4 year old chaser to win a grade 1 chase
Tell me the last 5 year old chaser to win a King George
Show me the stats that show he is not good enough or strong enoughSea Pigeon,
I don’t think you can gauge their respective ability in terms of prize money. Kauto Star won a Tingle Creek as a 5YO, which is run approximately three weeks earlier than the King George.
This victory was even more impressive considering it was only his fourth run over fences, having exclusively raced over hurdles in his native country. Long Run was having his ninth run over the larger obstacles when winning the King George. His elevatatd prize money can be attributed to landing two prestigious prizes over fences in France.
I’m fairly sure that Long Run was dropped a few pounds after his defeat in the RSA and I’m certain that he didn’t carry top weight in the Paddy Power.
Even if Long Run wins the Gold Cup, he’s got a helluva task trying to emulate Kauto Star – 2xTingle Creek, 4xKing George, 2xGold Cup. Only horse to regain the Gold Cup. Only horse to win four consecutive King Georges. Only horse to complete the KG / GC double on more than one occasion.
Kauto Star still sets the standard in the Gold Cup.
"Sea Pigeon" wrote: To say he doesn’t act at Cheltenham is tosh, both his efforts there were personal bests in terms of ratings, his first effort at Cheltenham as a five year old was after he had been on the go for over 12 months, the second carrying top weight over too short a distance when the stable was not in form yet he still ran a career best.
Personal bests yet still got smashed by Weapon’s Amnesty and failed to win a handicap where he actually did NOT carry top weight as you say.
Distance too short? He has won Graded races over 2m 2f and 2m 5f, and showed plenty of speed at Warwick last year.
Both times he failed to jump fluently and if he does that again he won’t be placing in the Gold Cup never mind winning it.
He may well win but he won’t be carrying my money
Get the pie on the ready
PREDICTION OF GOLD CUP RESULT
1st Long Run 4/1
2nd Imperial Commander 9/2
3rd Denman 13/2
4th Kauto Star 9/2Distances: 8 lengths, 4 lengths, 2 lengths
Betting on 2012 Gold Cup next day
Long Run 5/2
Time For Rupert 11/2
Big Bucks 8/1
- Total Posts 17716
Long Run may not be a Kauto Star, (neither has any other horse for the past 30 years) but he’d only have to be Best Mate, Kicking King, See More Business or The Fellow to add a Gold Cup to his King George win.
His jumping was certainly a worry last season, as much on flat courses as elsewhere, but he had extensive training with Yogi during the close season, though I was as sceptical as anyone else after the Paddy Power.
However, there were good reasons for that performance, as ably explained by both his tutor and his trainer since. It seems that he got unbalanced by the downhill fences early on, allied to the pace they were jumped at. No problems over the longer distance at Kempton, nor shouuld there be in the Gold Cup, as he has at least 1/2 a mile uphill, and 2 fences jumped at a lesser speed than a 2m 5f race anyway, to get into a rhythm.
Wouldn’t worry too much about his age either, as there won’t have been many 6yo’s run in the race with the experience of 9 chases (8 of them graded) or having won 6 of them He probably wouldn’t want fast ground for similar reasons, though that’s as likely as snow in July, and (imo) last year’s winner would be his only danger.
This is shaping up to be a cracker!
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