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And here’s another thing. Suppose we imagine that all the horses in the race run to the very best of their ability. Then roughly speaking I think you would have a dead heat between the big 4 (IC, LR, K and D). Then we ask ourselves what is the probability each runs to that ability? Then we would say IC 50%, LR 40%, K 30% and D 30%.
So prob of none running to best is 14.7%. This is the prob of the field winning. That leaves 85.3% to divi up according to percentages so IC = 50/150 x 85.3 = 28% or 3.57 or 5/2, LR =23% or 4.3 or 100/30, D and K 17% or 5.9 or 5/1.
The big 4 all look good value to me.
Denman finished 19l adrift of his previous Hennessy form,
Please explain Reet.
Value Is Everything
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Denman finished 19l adrift of his previous Hennessy form,
Please explain Reet.
He carried the same weight in both races, against broadly similar opposition (albeit at around 4lb difference in the weights) – won one by 3.5l, and lost the other by 15.5.
Seems a bit primitive a way to judge horses to me Reet, "broadly similar". Denman did "carry the same weight" but was on a mark 6 lbs higher than when successful.
In 2009 Denman (off a mark of 174) beat Niche Market by 7 3/4 lengths giving him 29 lbs (a mark of 148).
After the Hennessey, Niche Market ran in the Aon Chase and probably improved another few pounds, looking the winner before being clawed back on the post.
In 2010 Denman (off a mark of 182) beat Niche Market (now trained by Paul Nicholls) by 1 1/4 lengths giving 31 lbs (a mark of 156).
At the old 1 lb per length:
In 2009 Denman comes out a 36 3/4 lengths better horse 29 + 7.75 than Niche Market (not allowing for the claim).
If you don’t consider the possible improvement shown by Niche Market. In 2010 Denman comes out a 32.25 lengths better horse 31 + 1.25 than Niche Market. Denman running 4 1/2 lengths worse than 2010.If you consider (as I do) Niche Market improved say 3 lbs since the 2010 race, you could say Denman’s performance in 2010 was just 1 3/4 lengths worse than his 2009 effort.
In the Gold Cup, if Denman runs 4 1/2 lengths worse than last season’s Hennessey form, he’d put up a performance good enough to win many Gold Cups (taking out the brilliant recent era of Kauto Star, Denman and Imperial Commander). And I believe the Newbury run was less than 2 lbs inferior to 2009.
Kauto Star is probably (imo) on the downgrade so is a poor price, and Imperial Commander is coming back from injury and (imo) was not impressive in his recent work. My 11/2 was good value, but I would not take the current price.
I rated Diamond Harry and Burton Port as dangerous young horses, but they don’t run. There are doubts on ground, jumping ability, trip, jockeyship, temperament and track with Long Run. All may be small concerns, but small worries add up, so I don’t think he is value, even though he’s the big improver.
There is of course a possibility or even probability of Denman deteriorating in form, four months on from the Hennessey and now 11 years old. But the price available makes it worth the risk. Before the Hennessey, I was as ngative as anyone about Denman, but I’ve got to be able to change my opinion on evidence.
Now watch Denman dig his heels in and refuse to race.
Value Is EverythingSo, your supporting Denman because he finished behind a horse who was a single figure price for the Gold Cup on the strength of …….erm, beating Denman?
Denman finished 19l adrift of his previous Hennessy form, effectively off only 4lbs higher, and not one of the first 7 in that race (all those within shouting distance) has done a single thing since to suggest the form was anywhere near as good as it was rated.
Good luck with your bet, I feel you may need it.Thats a fascinating way of evaluating form reet hard suggesting "Denman finished 19l adrift of his previous Hennessey form",my way of interpreting his Hennessey form would be that the Denman who won the 09 event would have been beaten by 8 secs by the Denman that finished 3rd in this seasons race,i look forward to seeing your Gold Cup selection.
It’s not fascinating, it’s almost brain dead. There was no Diamond Harry in 2009’s race. End of.
Denman outjumped the winner at the fourth last but Jacob immediately had him back on the bridle – why? Because he was a high class animal getting 26lb off his rival. Approaching two out Denman had to go faster than he wanted to because he couldn’t burn Diamond Harry off.
At a preview night last week, Ruby summed up the Gold Cup thus:
"Imperial Commander worked well at Kempton and the vibes from the camp are good. Even Paddy Brennan, who’s a pessimist, is quite bullish – you have to take that on board.
Long Run was brilliant in the King George but for my money he’s ground-dependent more so than track-dependent. His Paddy Power was on good, Sun Alliance was on good, all his French form is on soft. He can maintain a serious gallop on soft; he’s ground-dependent.
Denman’s had a wind op. Ran well in the Hennessy and must have some sort of a chance as has Kauto. I’d love Kauto to win a third Gold Cup as I think he’s the greatest horse of all time.
Kempes bolted in in the Irish Hennessey, he’ll love good ground and should run a good race. Pandorama looks ground-dependent but Noel Meade thinks the sun shines out of his rear end, he really fancies him. Midnight Chase would be too slow, Tidal Bay’s not good enough, Neptune Collonges is a bit old . . . I hope Kauto can win it – he’s not as fast as he used to be but he’s in good nick and looks value at 13/2, but for me Imperial Commander is the one to beat."
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It’s not fascinating, it’s almost brain dead. There was no Diamond Harry in 2009’s race. End of.
Denman outjumped the winner at the fourth last but Jacob immediately had him back on the bridle – why? Because he was a high class animal getting 26lb off his rival. Approaching two out Denman had to go faster than he wanted to because he couldn’t burn Diamond Harry off.
Would that be the same Diamond Harry that went into the race off 152: the same rating that last season’s close 2nd What A Friend ran off – and who then went on to win his next 2 races and more prize money than all this season’s finishers have mustered between them since?
RE DENMAN
When Denman won his Gold Cup he was unbeaten over fences winning 8 from 8.
He goes into this Gold Cup having won just 1 from his last 8 races.
Last time out he got a sound thrashing from Diamond Harry and was weakening badly in the closing stages and this was on a flat track.
No horse over 10 has won the race for 42 years.
The stable jockey prefers his stablemate Kauto Star.
The horse has had problems with his heart.
The horse has had 2 operations for his breathing
The stable is not in the best of form.
As Ginger says "Value is everything"
I just don’t think that 7/1 for Denman is very good value at all.
Not strictly on topic but I found a pretty interesting article on DRF:
http://www.drf.com/blogs/what-worlds-gr … ent-207200
Great to see the festival getting coverage in America, as usually they completely disregard the existence of National Hunt racing!
Denman is surely the most consistent performer of the big 4, especially in the Gold Cup. I think at least one of IC, LR and Kauto will flop badly. So he should be odds on for a place, whereas you can get 2.7 on Betfair.
Why is everyone banging on about the Hennessy…each year half the field are on the downgrade and a light of former days…the other half are 2nd season chasers all about a stone well in.
Its the worst possible scenario to be handicapping the Gold Cup around.
In addition the first two home are knacked for the season and the distant third is no ones idea of an improving horse.
Kempton, Haydock and Leopardstown are where the clues lie…move on from Newbury…nothing to see…nothing to see.RE DENMAN
When Denman won his Gold Cup he was unbeaten over fences winning 8 from 8.
When Denman won the Gold Cup, he had won the Hennessey that season off a mark of 161, he was third this season (off a mark of 182) to two very promising horses who got 26 lbs and 25 lbs. Had Denman took Diamond Harry and Burton Port on in a grade 1 race, he’d have been an easy winner.
He goes into this Gold Cup having won just 1 from his last 8 races.
It is obvious you regard form as any win being better than a second. But let’s look at those 8 runs:
1/ Denman is far better left-handed. So the Kempton race should be ignored.
2/ Then, after an interupted preparation finished second to a great horse at the height of his powers (Kauto Star) in the Gold Cup. A performance better than anything put up by any of this year’s "younger brigade".
3/ He then fell at Aintree when over the top for the season.
4/ First time out the next season he improves his form once again wins the Hennessey, putting up a superlative weight carrying performance. Off a mark of 174, 13 lbs higher than the previous year. Again, a performance better than any put up by this year’s "younger brigade".
5/ He then unseats his rider in the Aon….
6/ Another less than perfect run-up to the Gold Cup. Yet he runs another massive race, near his best to chase home Imperial Commander. A Performance yet again, better than any of this year’s "younger brigade".
7/ Again disappoints going right-handed at Punchestown. Run should be ignored.
8/ Finishes third in the Hennessey on reappearance trying to give masses of weight.May be you should look more carefully at the 8 runs SP, instead of just looking at his win to run ratio.
Last time out he got a sound thrashing from Diamond Harry and was weakening badly in the closing stages and this was on a flat track.
Had it been at level weights Denman would have won easily. Hardly a "sound thrashing".
No horse over 10 has won the race for 42 years.
Of course I would prefer him to be 9 years old. But how many 11 year olds have tried? More importantly, how many had put up a performance rating of Denman’s capabilities? And how many had put up a performance that same season good enough to give them a massive chance? If Denman were not 11 years old, he’d be half the price he is today; his price makes it worth the risk (imo).
The stable jockey prefers his stablemate Kauto Star.
Really? You have not heard the interviews I have. I got the impression he is riding Kauto Star out of loyalty. I heard from a journalist who had interviewed their trainer, Nicholls prefers Denman.
The horse has had problems with his heart.
For sure, but he’s since put it well behind him.
The horse has had 2 operations for his breathing.
The first one did not hinder his progress, we’ll have to see if the second does. I’ve heard Denman is going well at home.
The stable is not in the best of form.
That may be the biggest problem, if it continues to next week.
As Ginger says "Value is everything"
I just don’t think that 7/1 for Denman is very good value at all.
Fair enough SP, that’s your opinion. Yes, value is everything, and value is a personal thing. One punter’s value is another punter’s poor value. Some people can identify value regularly, and some people can’t. I don’t know which group you’re in SP. One of my bookies accounts was recently closed. Stan James told me my "average bet was beating SP by over 20%" and I was "backing too many winners".
Win or lose, we will never know if Denman is/was value. One win or loss proves nothing.
Good luck with your bets at Cheltenham SP. Thumbs Up
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Ginger
Try this for size.
Denman, like the vast majority of top NH horses before him, progressed early in his career, plateaued, and then declined. His last run was overrated (as all the evidence since has shown) and he probably ran around 10lbs below his imperious best.
His decline will inevitably continue until he’s retired, and only ground soft enough to slow the others down appreciably will give him the remotest chance of even gaining a place in this year’s renewal.
Sound familiar?….. It ought to, it’s called life.Reet,
What evidence?
To say the Hennessey has not worked out is crazy when:
None of the first 3, Diamond Harry, Burton Port and Denman, have been seen since.
The 4th The Tother One is a dog, who runs one good race a season, usually (like the Hennessey) early in the season.
5th Niche Market is being prepared for the Grand National.
6th Carruthers (who carried 10-0 in the Hennessey) was running an excellent race in the Totesport National Trial (under 11-6), still going well on the turn for home, but palpably not staying the trip of 3 1/2 miles on heavy.
7th Taranis, who’s first race of the season was at Newbury, is known to be best fresh, fell on his only other start.
8th Weird Al has not seen since.
9th Hills Of Aran has lost his enthusiasm for racing this season.
Last home, 10th Silver By Nature carried 10-0 in the Hennessey, won the Totesport National Trial in impressive style by 15 lengths under 11-12.Why not look at what has actually happened? instead of seeing one statistic and just imagining the rest. Until the first three have run again, the form has to be judged more on what happened prior to the Hennessey, rather than afterwards.
I am not saying Denman should be favourite, I am not saying Denman will win. Just his chance of winning is under-estimated by the bookmakers and most punters. Hope Imperial Commander wins.
Value Is Everything
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